ZiPS and Pecota Projecting 2017 Twins at .500

[Teflon]

I was surprised to see Dan Szymborski's team ZiPS projections for 2017 list theTwins at 2nd in the AL Central at 81-81, same as the Kansas CIty Royals and only three games back of Cleveland.  Pecota had nearly the same forecast for Minnesota, also pegging them at 2nd in the division but with one less win. (Pecota thinks KC will lose 90 games!) 

 

Barring significant changes to the roster, I'm guessing this uptick is based on the progression of the young Twins talent (Berios) plus a falloff of KC, Detroit, and the White Sox in the AL Central.

 

If forced to choose, would you take the "over" or the "under" on these optimisticTwins projections?

 

 

[jimmer]

Under.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

Over – But then I'm an optimist. I wonder what the Las Vegas odds are?

 

 

[jimmer]

You can be optimistic and still not believe they will have a winning record. One might say optimism could manifest by predicting the Twins will have a loss number in the 80s as opposed to 90s or 100s.

[rghrbek]

I think optimistic is over 70 with this roster as it is currently constructed.  So my vote is a very very strong under.

[drjim]

A little under. I'm now leaning towards 76.

[Vanimal46]

Would bet 6 months' worth of rent on the under.

[Blake]

I already said the Twins would win 71. Not going to back down now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd certainly take the under on 81.

 

I expect them to finish somewhere in the 70s. The low 70s if things kinda go bad, the high 70s if things kinda go right.

[Thrylos]

The date on this is November 4.  Interesting to see updated projections

[Lefty74]

Really thinking Buxton, Sano, Castro and Berrios could add 15+ to last years 59. 80 or 81 seems like a stretch so I'm guessing Under, but really hoping to be wrong!

[S.]

 

The date on this is November 4.  Interesting to see updated projections

Perhaps they were making the assumption we would improve our atrocious starting rotation. Unfortunately, that was a poor assumption.

[gunnarthor]

It's not that crazy. They have a lot of young talent and a few vets that shouldn't be better. I think 75 is about right but they could easily steal a few extra games.

[caninatl04]

 

Over – But then I'm an optimist. I wonder what the Las Vegas odds are?

Vegas will not release O/U for a few weeks yet-- they wait until all the FA's clear.  I'll post it as soon as I can.

 

My guess would be 76-77?

 

Here are, just for our amusement, some hypothetical O/U's:

 

J.O Berrios Wins: O/U 11

Dozier HR's: O/U 30

Buxton Runs: O/U 83

Mauer OBP:  O/U .365

Annual (home) attendance: O/U 2,100,000

 

Thoughts?

 

[DJSim22]

I picked them at 69-93.  I think they'll play .500 for a few months but really tail off at the end of the year when they are out of it and looking at more young players.  I think Buxton plays closer to his September self, Sano has an uptick in his game, and Dozier plays at a level between last year and previous years.  I think Santana will have good season and Berrios will take a step forward.  I don't have high hopes for Gibson.  I am optimistic that the bullpen will be used less, not sure how good they will be.  Overall the staff has to be better, but likely still a bottom 1/3 at best staff.  The defense should be better like everyone else I worry about the left side of the infield.  

[mikelink45]

It is spring training time and everyone is undefeated.  I just wish I had the optimism that this projection presents, but I do not care how much better the young batters are and I am not excited by the ten additional strikes that Castro will bedazzle the umpires with - this team cannot pitch and thus we will only lose 93 because it is hard to lose 100 two years in a row.

 

[nicksaviking]

Obviously I'd take the under. But this is baseball, every year is surprising in some way.

 

I'll say this: I like the 2017 club better than I liked the 2015 club at this time two years ago.

[Platoon]

I am in the 70's. One of the unknowns: Is Molitor going to managing to save his job? Or to build for the future? The cunundrm to this is that if he plays for the future I think they win more games, but it's going to take patience. If he starts playing mediocre vets early on, he loses anyway and wastes experience time. I know this sounds a*^ backwards, but I really think if he just starts out playing his best young players, and rides it out, they will ramp up as the season progresses. If he jerks the roster around early in panic mode? We will have last year redux.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Really thinking Buxton, Sano, Castro and Berrios could add 15+ to last years 59. 80 or 81 seems like a stretch so I'm guessing Under, but really hoping to be wrong!

Keep in mind that just regression to the mean should increase their win totals by quite a few games. Just as the Twins outperformed their expected win total in 2015, they underperformed it significantly last year. So that alone should bring them 6-10 wins. So those four probably only need to provide like 10-15 wins more to get them to 80 wins, assuming no good or bad luck.

[Mr. Brooks]

71 wins.

[Doomtints]

Reno odds came out with the O/U for the Twins at 70.5.

[rghrbek]

 

Reno odds came out with the O/U for the Twins at 70.5.

This, to me, is significantly more believable than the twins somehow improving by 22 wins, with the current roster in place.

[d-mac]

 

I was surprised to see Dan Szymborski's team ZiPS projections for 2017 list theTwins at 2nd in the AL Central at 81-81, same as the Kansas CIty Royals and only three games back of Cleveland.  Pecota had nearly the same forecast for Minnesota, also pegging them at 2nd in the division but with one less win. (Pecota thinks KC will lose 90 games!) 

 

Barring significant changes to the roster, I'm guessing this uptick is based on the progression of the young Twins talent (Berios) plus a falloff of KC, Detroit, and the White Sox in the AL Central.

 

If forced to choose, would you take the "over" or the "under" on these optimisticTwins projections?

 

Interesting that PECOTA has us projected to be the third best defensive team after the Mariners and Dodgers. 

[spanman2]

Under...I don't see a 22 game improvement.  It would an incredible turnaround I just don't envision primarily on the pitching side improvements made to warrant that degree of optimism.  I think a more realistic number on the optimistic side would be avoiding a 90 loss season.  Maybe 73 wins?  I would love to eat crow on this one!

[d-mac]

Fangraphs' Depth Charts has us pegged at 74-88 for 2017. FWIW, Depth Charts is based off of Steamer projections and has playing time allotments manually adjusted by the Fangraphs' staff.

[Doomtints]

 

This, to me, is significantly more believable than the twins somehow improving by 22 wins, with the current roster in place.

 

Absolutely.  That's an 11/12-game swing.

[Doomtints]

 

Interesting that PECOTA has us projected to be the third best defensive team after the Mariners and Dodgers. 

 

It doesn't quite pass the sniff test, does it?

[Boom Boom]

What was the projection last year?

[Doomtints]

 

What was the projection last year?

 

They like to make previous years hard to find, but someone was using their noggin and made a screenshot one year ago this week.

http://imgur.com/a/IyHIJ

 

The Twins were slated for 79 wins, which probably seemed low-but-not-too-low to most of us. They overestimated the pitching/defense and underestimated the offense. I would wager if they are wrong for 2017, they made the same mistakes. Just eyeballing, they were way off for RS and RA league wide. A lot more scoring happened last year than they projected. 

[markos]

 

Under...I don't see a 22 game improvement.  It would an incredible turnaround I just don't envision primarily on the pitching side improvements made to warrant that degree of optimism.  I think a more realistic number on the optimistic side would be avoiding a 90 loss season.  Maybe 73 wins?  I would love to eat crow on this one!

An argument for the optimistic scenario runs something like this:
- Their Pythag record last year was 65 wins.
- Their BaseRuns record last year was 71 wins.
So there were some signs that last year's team was really an unlucky 70-win team talent-wise. (Similar to how the 2015 team was a very lucky 75-win team talent-wise) If you use that as the baseline, then getting to 80 wins is possible. It's still a big lift, but not CRAZY.