Article: Official Winter Meetings Wednesday Thread

[Gheggs08]

 

You might be correct on Bucholz being cheaper, but the idea would be that Pomeranz is a young controllable pitcher which fits the Twins needs more than Bucholz.  

I was not aware that Pom has 2 more years of control before free agency, I also didn't realize that Buchholz was 4 years older than Pom.

 

I would love to have Pom but he has only thrown 100+ innings once, this year. I definitely think there is some risk with both, Buch would be much cheaper and more of a bridge type as this is his last year before FA. He also might have more to prove for the same reason; he could be a buy low candidate that wouldn't hurt to take a flyer on IMO.

[markos]

 

Depends on what you need.  If I already have a playoff team, I'd take the risk on Hill.  If I need to fill out a rotation just to get to the playoffs, I'd take Ervin.  (And if I'm pretty far from the playoffs, I'd probably take the risk on Hill too -- if he works out, he's easier to flip for an impact prospect. I think teams will continue to have interest in Ervin, but will ultimately be fairly wishy-washy about ponying up much to acquire him,)

I agree. A team like Seattle or Baltimore needs the ~200 steady innings Santana could provide than rolling the dice on upside. A team like the Dodgers need the potential upside more than innings.

[gunnarthor]

 

Trea Turner was selected after Nick Gordon....................sigh.

Yes.  Why are you so down on Gordon?  You wanted the Twins to draft him.  He's a HS kid so it takes longer.  

[bluechipper]

 

Dave Cameron's thoughts:

 

acesfull2312:04 What in god's name are the Rockies doing?

 

Dave Cameron
12:04 Apparently, every year one NL West team has to get tired of their position and try to win prematurely. Two years ago, it was the Padres. Last year, it was the D'Backs. Now it's the Rockies turn.

Yeah, let's criticize a team for signing a quality player to a fair deal. Nolan Arenado is in his prime, Car-go is still very good, they have the batting champ in Lemehieu, and some of their young pitching is up and pitching well. Why not make a big free agent signing?

[mazeville]

 

Trea Turner was selected after Nick Gordon....................sigh.

 

The Twins have NOT drafted well recently. Let's hope that changes.

[DaveW]

The last thing the Twins should be doing at this stage is trading minor leaguers for "veteran" pitchers.

 

I wouldn't mind Pom or Buch, but I don't want them to give up any player with a potential future here.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes.  Why are you so down on Gordon?  You wanted the Twins to draft him.  He's a HS kid so it takes longer.  

 

I predicted they'd draft him....and kind of wanted it, yes. I'm not down on him, I'm disappointed players picked after him are up, and are very good/great. It's not my job to pick the right players......if we are going to judge the success of this team in acquiring talent vs me, as opposed to MLB teams, I'm not in that game....

[gunnarthor]

 

I predicted they'd draft him....and kind of wanted it, yes. I'm not down on him, I'm disappointed players picked after him are up, and are very good/great. It's not my job to pick the right players......if we are going to judge the success of this team in acquiring talent vs me, as opposed to MLB teams, I'm not in that game....

It's too early to judge though.  Gordon has been pretty much what was expected.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's too early to judge though.  Gordon has been pretty much what was expected.  

 

Where did I actually JUDGE, or call him a bust, or any other thing, other than pointing out Turner was drafted after him? I'm the one still saying he can play SS for this team some day, so I literally have no idea what you are posting about here.

[Twins33]

 

Back when Farvey was hired, there were rumors his best man would be joining him at the Twins. Has that happened?

He re-upped with the Indians. Sounded like Falvey will be bringing no one from the Indians according to reports made a few weeks ago (there may have been an article, but I do remember tweets). And it sounded like Levine also had a verbal agreement to not take anyone from TX.

[SF Twins Fan]

One thing I hope for with the new front office is that they're more aggressive with promotions.  It doesn't seem like position players were promoted mid season very often.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, let's criticize a team for signing a quality player to a fair deal. Nolan Arenado is in his prime, Car-go is still very good, they have the batting champ in Lemehieu, and some of their young pitching is up and pitching well. Why not make a big free agent signing?

Some might quibble with "fair deal." After his hot start, Desmond finished last season with a 104 OPS+.  He has a 100 career mark, and hasn't been significantly better than that since his age 26-27 seasons.  He hasn't been much other than an average defender either.

 

And in the last year of teams being able to lose first round picks, the Rockies just forfeited the #11 overall pick (and its accompanying slot value) for the right to guarantee Desmond $14 mil per year for his age 31-35 seasons.

 

It's a fairly weak market too, so it doesn't look like the Rockies will even be able to sign another FA with qualifying offer attached (which would have effectively bumped Desmond's forfeiture down to a 2nd rounder).  Trumbo, Encarnacion, Bautista, Fowler, Jansen, and Turner are the only ones left.

[amjgt]

I remember Turner, 6 months before the draft, was considered a cant miss, awesome talent, projected to go in the top couple picks.

 

Given his position, perceived closeness to the majors, and his quality, I honed in on him as who I wanted. But it didn't look like he would drop to us. Then in the spring, he started to slip, and it was for what seemed like not great reasons. 

 

I'm not surprised he's ended up being a very good player and I still wish we would have stuck with the 6-months-out projection of him.

[wsnydes]

 

Yeah, let's criticize a team for signing a quality player to a fair deal. Nolan Arenado is in his prime, Car-go is still very good, they have the batting champ in Lemehieu, and some of their young pitching is up and pitching well. Why not make a big free agent signing?

In my mind it's not that they made a free agent splash, it's who they made the splash with.  Signing a 5 year/$70M deal with a 31 year old who is just a season removed for 4 successive years in decline is what makes this a curious move to me.  The forfeited draft pick only makes it worse.

Edited December 7, 2016 by wsnydes

[markos]

 

I predicted they'd draft him....and kind of wanted it, yes. I'm not down on him, I'm disappointed players picked after him are up, and are very good/great. It's not my job to pick the right players......if we are going to judge the success of this team in acquiring talent vs me, as opposed to MLB teams, I'm not in that game....

Sure, but the fact that the Padres drafted Turner at #13 doesn't necessarily mean that they would have taken Turner instead of Gordon. It is entirely possible that every single team would have taken Gordon over Turner if given the choice - unfortunately, we don't get to see each team's draft board. So comparing the success of the Twins versus other teams isn't as simple as just saying that the Twins messed up because later picks worked out. And its is particularly difficult when dealing with a large tier of similarly ranked players. Take the Gordon pick. There were something like 10 names legitimately brought up (both on this site and among various draft experts) for that spot: Gordon, Jackson, Nola, Freeland, Turner, Newcomb, and Toussaint for sure. I also liked Holmes and Hoffman. All had their pros and cons, with passionate fans on all sides. The fact that a handful of them have worked out better than Gordon (so far) isn't at all surprising - in fact, it is expected given the odds and the size of the pool.

 

Sorry for the rant, but judging draft performance in a context-neutral way (and trying to separate the actual talent evaluation from the player development) is something I've thought a lot about. It is a really tough problem, and maybe impossible, but I'd really like to figure out a way to systematically grade a team's performance without resorting to "this other player drafted X picks later is better" arguments.

[Mike Sixel]

I also never did that, I never judged the pick.....I MERELY POINTED OUT HE WAS UP AND GREAT.

 

NOTHING MORE THAN THAT WAS DONE.

 

WHY DO PEOPLE NEED TO NEED TO ATTACK THINGS THAT WERE NEVER DONE?

 

WHY?

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

I also never did that, I never judged the pick.....I MERELY POINTED OUT HE WAS UP AND GREAT.

 

NOTHING MORE THAN THAT WAS DONE.

 

WHY DO PEOPLE NEED TO NEED TO ATTACK THINGS THAT WERE NEVER DONE?

 

WHY?

Because you smell. 

[Baseball Bat]

 

Wonder if the Rockies would have some interest in revisiting the Kyle Gibson trade interest?

Probably don't want to trade Gibson now. Not at maximum value. Would have gotten a bigger return for him last offseason. However, if Gibson can keep his ERA in the 3's this year and has a good season, the Rockies would be worth watching on him at this years trade deadline. Could potentially get a big haul. Plus it appears the Rockies are gearing up for a run soon with the signing of Desmond. They have a freaking potent line up.

[wsnydes]

 

Because you smell. 

He who smelt it, dealt it!

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

He who smelt it, dealt it!

Oh, very mature.

[wsnydes]

 

Oh, very mature.

You started it!

[d-mac]

 

Trea Turner was selected after Nick Gordon....................sigh.

 

The previous regime hated drafting college position players for some reason. Hopefully that is not something the new regime avoids. 

[bluechipper]

 

In my mind it's not that they made a free agent splash, it's who they made the splash with.  Signing a 5 year/$70M deal with a 31 year old who is just a season removed for 4 successive years in decline is what makes this a curious move to me.  The forfeited draft pick only makes it worse.

Yeah, that's a good point. Mark Trumbo might seem like a better fit, especially since it sounds like Desmond is going to play 1B. They get some positional flexibility though, and I'm still a fan of the move overall.

[roger]

He re-upped with the Indians. Sounded like Falvey will be bringing no one from the Indians according to reports made a few weeks ago (there may have been an article, but I do remember tweets). And it sounded like Levine also had a verbal agreement to not take anyone from TX.

Thanks!

[jimmer]

Soler has nearly 3x the walk rate of Rosario. And then it depends on how much you buy into defensive metrics. The Royals seem to be a bit old school when it comes that, but my impression of them may be wrong.

royals have one of the best defensive OF in the game. One might argue when a healthy Gordon, Cain and Dyson are out there, they have the best defensive OF in baseball. And Orlando is awesome too. They led the majors in DRS for OF and were 2nd in UZR. Edited December 7, 2016 by jimmer

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, that's a good point. Mark Trumbo might seem like a better fit, especially since it sounds like Desmond is going to play 1B. They get some positional flexibility though, and I'm still a fan of the move overall.

Desmond is going to play 1B? That's terrible.

 

Desmond had a 104 OPS+ last year, 100 career. The Rockies 1B last year, Mark Reynolds, had a 101 OPS+, and a 104 career mark. And Reynolds graded out as an average defender at 1B too, and played for a $2.6 mil salary.

 

Even Desmond's positional flexibility isn't worth much in Colorado, because they are set at CF and all around the infield.  He's basically a glorified 1B and corner OF there.

[TheLeviathan]

Desmond to play 1B, well into his thirties, for that much money, and losing the 11th pick?

 

I'm not sure my fandom could survive that move.

[Vanimal46]

That is quite the head scratcher if Desmond is really going to play 1B for them... 

Hell, the Twins have plenty of them to trade away. No reason to pay Desmond that kind of money! 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Plus it appears the Rockies are gearing up for a run soon with the signing of Desmond. They have a freaking potent line up.

"Freaking potent" is probably an oversell, or not taking park factors into account. The Rockies offense was 8th of 15 in the NL, and 16th of 30 in MLB, by wRC+ last year.  And that's with career seasons from LeMahieu and Blackmon, and Story probably due for some regression too.

 

And they just spent $70 mil and the 11th overall pick on a lateral move at 1B (plus a backup SS/CF, if you give Desmond credit for positional versatility).

[nicksaviking]

 

Desmond to play 1B, well into his thirties, for that much money, and losing the 11th pick?

 

I'm not sure my fandom could survive that move.

 

Yeah, that's just insane. For one thing, they must have stopped watching baseball about the same time they were mathematically eliminated last year, that being the middle of July, because he was awful after that point just as he was at the end of his career in Washington.

 

For another, Colorado should know by now that a hunchback with tuberculosis holding a broom handle can put up an .800 OPS in Coors Field. Why not just pay Brandon Moss a fraction of what you just gave Desmond to do practically the same thing?