Realistically, what does 2017 look like?

[mshnd06]

Apologies if something like this has been posted already.  I anticipate going through the motions for the rest of the season: watching the games, attending a few, but never getting too worked up.  Consequently, I find myself looking forward to next year.  Unfortunately that discourages me as well.  Paul Molitor will likely be fired and in my mind it will be deserved (prospect management has been criminal and at least some of that is on him in my opinion) but does anyone have faith that Terry Ryan will be gone?  The best I can hope for is an internal hire when something more drastic is called for.  I am certainly no great baseball mind but I would go full rebuild and deal Dozier and Plouffe for scrap.  Veteran leadership hasn't really netted us much.  Do I think that likely to happen?  Nope.  Won't eat the contracts of Hughes, Nolasco and Mauer.  What does the squad look like next year?

 

C - Murphy/Centeno

1B - Mauer

2B - Dozier

3B - Plouffe

SS - Escobar/Polanco

LF - Arcia/Rosario/Kepler

CF - Buxton

RF - Sano

DH - Park

 

SP - Duffey

SP - Gibson

SP - Berrios

SP - Hughes

SP - Nolasco

 

CP - May

 

Does that inspire confidence?  That is a genuine question.  What do you think a roster looks like if the FO remains intact?  What would you like to see? For me, in a perfect world, 2016 is turned over to the prospects and they play through their lumps and appear closer to their ceilings than their floors and we get something like this:

 

*Pipedream alert*

 

C - Overpay for a league average catcher

1B - Mauer

2B - Polanco

SS - Stopgap FA until Gordon is ready

3B - Sano

LF - Rosario

CF - Buxton

RF - Kepler

DH - Park

 

SP - Duffey

SP - Berrios

SP - May

SP - Meyer

SP - Gibson

 

BP - Hughes

BP - Nolasco

BP - Chargois

BP - Burdi

etc...

 

In that scenario we're looking at 40-60 wins this year, but hopefully 75 for 2017 and contention by 2018 and 2019.  Blast away

[bluechipper]

I think you're forgetting Ervin Santana. I like the thinking in your plan though- trade Plouffe and Dozier, insert Sano and Polanco.

 

 

[alarp33]

I think through FA / Trades they'll need a Corner outfielder (Rosario is a 4th OFer for me), Catcher, Probably a couple relief pitchers, and a Starter.  

 

I don't expect Plouffe or Nolasco to be back, and would lean Dozier and Arcia being gone as well.  

[mshnd06]

 

I think you're forgetting Ervin Santana. I like the thinking in your plan though- trade Plouffe and Dozier, insert Sano and Polanco.

 

I'm assuming we trade Santana and/or Gibson as there might be a market for SP and their contracts are less heinous than Hughes' and Nolasco's

[Vanimal46]

Well, this is all subject to the way the current roster looks...

 

Arb-Eligible guys:

Plouffe - pass, going to be too expensive for his value

Escobar - offer arb. but starting position not locked in

Nunez - non-tender

Abad - offer arb. 

Gibson - offer arb. 

Kintzler - on the fence.

 

People I think will no longer be Twins:

 

Plouffe

Nunez 

Suzuki

Jepsen

Danny Santana

Grossman

 

2017 lineup 

 

C - FA / Murphy / Garver and Stuart on 40 man

1B - Mauer / Park

2B - Dozier (though I hope he is traded this season)

SS - Polanco / Escobar

3B - Sano

LF - Arcia / FA / Rosario

CF - Buxton

RF - FA / Kepler 

 

Rotation : 

 

E Santana

Berrios

Duffey 

Gibson

May / Meyer / Hughes

 

Bullpen: Blow it all up. 

 

 

[Shaitan]

I'd rather see SS Polanco and 2B Dozier than a stopgap SS who hits like Suzuki. Even if Polanco is subpar on defense.

 

[Badsmerf]

The sad thing is that there has been a thread like this every May since the 2011 season.

[Ncgo4]

Want to really know? Ask yourself, if you owned the Braves, who on the Twins would you want to acquire? The only team in MLB that's worse than us and you might not take any of them. That's what you can look forward to next year.

[Riverbrian]

I wouldn't be comfortable making these specific decisions yet because some hard ones will have to be made. 

 

I do know I'd like the first wave of prospects to start getting run through this year in prep for next year (that means the eventual return of Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, Meyer, Kepler and Polanco). 

 

I'd like the Twins to spend the rest of 2016 assuming that the youngsters will be ready in 2017 and work hard to get them ready and clear the way in a leap of faith that they will be. This will mean casualties and we will need a GM with guts. 

 

Then after spending the rest of this year thinking the youngsters will be ready... I'd like the Twins to spend the off season assuming that the youngsters may not be ready and then provide safety nets with vets... you bet... that's what i'd get... If someone would let... I won't fret... I Gotta pay the debt... I'm the best you've met... and we are all set. 

 

I somehow turned into Biggie Smalls at the end there... sorry about that. Long Live Led Zeppelin. 

 

 

 

[Teflon]

1. Twins move Twins Fest to US Bank stadium while Target Field converts more seating areas into non-seating areas.

2. Twins tweak uniforms again.

3. In the Twins only off-season moves, new GM Rob Antony signs NL pitcher Charlie Morton to three year deal and re-acquires Jordan Schafer.

4. Twins move Miguel Sano to SS in spring training.

5. Dick & Bert each one year closer in age to their target demographic.

6. Twins Daily cuts back to Twins Weekly.

[Kwak]

I'm suspicious of thread starters with so few posts ...  .  That being said...A rotation that includes both May and Meyer is begging for another 120-loss season.  Given the situation at Catcher, I believe Suzuki will return, but at $5MM rather than $6MM (UG!). 

 

A new manager--of course!  A new GM--only if Ryan sits next to his hand-picked replacement in the office and approves every decision!  Expect a large payroll cut.  That's what happened after every other debacle.  Houston (and Miami) proved that disaster W/L records can be accomplished for a much smaller payroll! 

[DuluthFan]

 

1. Twins move Twins Fest to US Bank stadium while Target Field converts more seating areas into non-seating areas.

2. Twins tweak uniforms again.

3. In the Twins only off-season moves, new GM Rob Antony signs NL pitcher Charlie Morton to three year deal and re-acquires Jordan Schafer.

4. Twins move Miguel Sano to SS in spring training.

5. Dick & Bert each one year closer in age to their target demographic.

6. Twins Daily cuts back to Twins Weekly.

 

Wonder if that will help them update the roster and payroll pages*. There are still players listed that have been gone for over a year.

 

*pages soon replaced with links to sites that have updated information.

[TheLeviathan]

RB is right...too much still that has to play out this year to know.  

 

Of course, that also depends on them actually playing those guys at some point too.

[Taildragger8791]

Unfortunately, if your first lineup and rotation came true then I'd say we're in for another repeat of this year. I don't see how you could run essentially the same crop of players out there and not expect similar results. That has to be a fireable offense. But I'm also not sure how much you can do about it with so many untradeable players entrenched at their positions. That's why I see this recovery dragging out until 2018 at the earliest.

 

Hitting. I don't know that I see Plouffe leaving unless Terry Ryan goes with him. He has the highest OPS and WAR of anyone not named Park or Nunez. That's a bad thing, by the way. But it also means they may cling to him longer than they should. Dozier & Mauer will be back at their spots due to contracts. SS will probably be a hot potato situation again, although I hope Polanco gets regular playing time there or somewhere even if his defense isn't excellent. Catcher will likely repeat as a black hole. I don't know if there's a catcher out there to get and Murphy will likely get the chance to lose the job again next year. I don't like to bet on a player suddenly becoming something much more than they've shown themselves to be at 25 years old. I'd like to think Buxton will be competent with the stick next year, so that's one improvement. LF is probably a mix of Rosario, and Arcia, with RF being Sano again. Kepler should mix in at all 3 spots. Hopefully they're improved, but there needs to be contingency plan rather than just crossing the fingers and hoping for everything to turn out again. To sum this up, I see incremental but not significant improvement in the hitting and defense.

 

I hope the rotation is turned over a little but I don't know what you can do there either. Santana is the only one with value, but that also means he's the only one giving us a chance to win out there. Berrios and Duffey have to be in there as well. I don't know that I'd give up on Gibson yet, but I guess this season may drive that decision. Nolsaco and Hughes have to battle it out for the 5th spot and the loser goes in the bullpen then. This assumes Meyer resolved his fate this year. Meyer to the bullpen unless something clicks with him and he starts throwing strikes. Then he gets the 5th spot as long as he can keep it. I'd like to see May auditioned as a starter this year too, but management seems to have given up on him as a starter since they screwed the BP situation so bad. Again, incremental but not significant improvement. A lot of banking on improved or sustained performance from players here.

 

Bullpen is a total rebuild. I don't know if there's anyone besides May or Chargois in line to help there next year. Reed and Burdi seem to be stagnating or backsliding at AA so I won't count on them anytime soon. Perkins appears to be done. Abad has looked good but I wouldn't count on repeat or sustained performance there. Similar with Tonkin. The rest is chaff that should be turned over with FAs.

 

Seems like a pessimistic outlook but I don't see Terry Ryan suddenly turning into to Tradin' Terry and making any big moves to flush the clogs out of the system. So this is kind of how I see it evolving next year.

[DocBauer]

While it's an interesting topic, and one that I believe is worth considering, as has been stated, there is still way too much season to play to make a real determination.

 

I don't think it is beyond the realm of possibility, despite negative naysayer opinions, that Ryan could decide it's time to move on. (Possibly nudged by Jim Pohlad, if he cares and is paying attention to general populous opinion, press, fans, etc, concerning the handling of the team this year, and the total losing 5 out of 6 seasons) This would obviously play a huge factor.

 

That being said, we're I to speculate at this time, I would suspect Plouffe is gone, unless Mauer steps aside. (I still think Plouffe is traded this year) Sano is just not on OF. He has shown he can play 3B, at least adequately, and it's where he should be. I would suspect the Twins will do what they should have done this off season, and sign an actual, decent, viable ML OF for depth and insurance. Somehow, someway, Nolasco will be gone. Santana and Hughes could simply prove too difficult to trade, though Santana probably does posses some actual value. Right nkw, Hughes doesnt. You are stuck with him and his contract, either as a starter or reliever, unless you just suck it up and eat his contract.

 

NOTE: Shold the Twins actually be so bold as to eat any contracts, said replacements would be making minimum salaries for the first few seasons.

 

Let us also assume the Twins, in a lost season, DO promote and play all the kids come July, or August 1st at the latest.

 

OF: Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, FA, possibly Arcia

 

INF: Sano, Escobar, Dozier, Park/Mauer with Nunez and Polanco.

 

C: FA, Murphy or Centeno

 

SP: Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Berrios, Hughes

 

RP: Chargois, Perkins, Abad, May, and 3 more that is almost impossible to predict that could include Tonkin, Pressly, maybe Hughes here instead, maybe Burdi, and whoever else you want to audition.

 

Call me crazy if you will, but I'd almost rather trade Dozier and keep Santana for what he should be, an OK utility guy.

[kab21]

Worst to first...

 

This year has been brutal though.

[gunnarthor]

Honestly, so much has gone wrong so far this season that I think you'll just have to see how it shakes out before planning for 2017.  I suspect the Twins will trade off a few guys - although it would help if they started hitting first.  And our panic about next year might subside if Kepler, Sano and Buxton show signs of hitting like they are capable of in the majors.  

[diehardtwinsfan]

I agree with the others that things have to shake out, though I think Vanimal's assessment is probably the most accurate.  I have a sneaking suspicion that if Gibson has another rebound and posts respectable numbers by end of season that he might go on the market as well.  I'd certainly consider it if he did what he did last season again.  He would also likely get a nice return. I suspect Nolasco will be gone, whether that's a mid-season trade or he just gets cut, who knows.  I think you'll start seeing relievers rotating through from the minors yet this season, and I wouldn't be surprised if they start rotating Kepler/Walker/Buxton back in after the ASB. 

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

2. Twins tweak uniforms again.

 

OK, seriously, this is a conversation I'd love to get started. What would you guys do? 

 

Should I start a new thread?

[Cory Engelhardt]

I would suspect that there will be a new manager. Maybe Doug Mientkiewicz, maybe someone outside the organization. I could also see Terry Ryan stepping aside, and that someone (probably) from outside the organization will come in. Probably someone with ties to the team in some way, but from outside. Hopefully there is enough of a change in the philosophy in management to really start heavily using analytical and statistics focused scouting.

I would then also trade/not bring back Dozier, Plouffe, Abad, Santana, Nolasco, Jepsen and Nunez. Plouffe, Dozier, Abad and Santana should all bring back some level of prospect value. Nolasco, Jepsen and Nunez would be gone to clear space for the younger kids.

 

I would incorporate the kids as much as possible, but the two positions I would go after in free agency hard would be catcher and outfield. I'd sign two former Twins to those spots, Wilson Ramos and Carlos Gomez. I would also go in looking for a strong bullpen piece, but I like what they did with Abad this year so I can see that route working as well.

 

C Ramos and Murphy

1B Mauer

2B Polanco

SS Gordon

3B Sano

LF Kepler

CF Buxton

RF Gomez

DH Park

Bench

Escobar

Backup catcher

Rosario

TBD

 

Rotation

Gibson

Duffey

Berrios

Jay

Meyer or May

 

Bullpen

Chagois, Burdi, May possibly, Reed, Melotaksis et al

[Rosterman]

The Twins will jettison salary any way they can, and when the final attendance numbers come in for 2016 they will be crying.

 

Catcher: No to Suzuki,no matter the price. Not sure if there is anyone out there. Hopefully Murphy turns around and you get Garver or Turner up here at some point. You might be able to supplement with a minor league free agent, but I wouldn't count on Cedeno being a second-year surprise.

 

Mauer and Park continue at first. I would give Kepler some turns there and hopefully he is at Rochester. He might be our first baseman of the future when all is said and done.

 

Trade Dozier. Although I don't see anyone knocking down doors. He is an all-around decent player, but needs to shine somewhere this season to have any value. The Twins can continue to gamble on him to increase value for another season.

 

Hopefully Nick Gordon advances. Or any of the other shortstop candidates, that you feel you can give them a clear shot in spring training. All comes down to defense. At some point, you return Danny Santana to this hole. But Danny or Escobar will end up starting, with Polanco in the backup wings as he approaches being out of options.

 

Plouffe needs to be moved. He will be a free agent in 2018. In 2017 he will be a $10-12 million dollar cornerstone. I, sadly, see few teams ready to take on that kind of salary. Including the Twins. If he isn't traded, he will be let go and resign for less. Put Sano in at third and hope he is comfortable and holds the fort down for at least three seasons.

 

Nunez is gone. The Twins do have some prospects to fulfill replacement/backup roles as they get better in the minors. Looking at the minors there are some comfortable future names for middle infield bring speed and average.

 

Outfield of Kepler, Buxton and Arcia will have to happen sooner or later, with Rosario clearly the fourth outfielder. If Arcia and Rosario have any value, they get moved as you look at Walker. Palka is also a fourth outfielder possibility.

 

There is hopes that much of the rotation will have callers during this summer. Nolasco and Santana could both be traded for soemthing right now. Gibson should be considered tradebait. He will become expensive before he becomes exceptional, which he never may. Hughes is an enigma.

 

Berrios, May, Meyer, Duffey are locks for 2017. You might be able to sneak in Baxendale. Maybe Wheeler is a prospect. Hopefully a couple more names are closer in the wings (Stewart, Jay). he Twins may also flip Milone for something if he continues to shine in the minors. They need to keep the system building towards the future, too.

 

But someone may think May is the closer of the future. We have no idea where Perkins fits in right now. He could remain a Twin for life, as you always need a decent lefty in the pen. But who is the closer. That is the question.

 

Abad will be able to name his price and he will depart. Jepsen will be gone. We will finally see Reed, Burdi, Bard, Chargolis and others. It will be their job to win and keep. The Twins WILL NOT invest in a multi-year expensive contract for anyone in the bullpen. 

 

So 2017 will sink or swim on the quality ofthe pitching overall. There will be bad and horrible games (similar to this year). But hopefully coaching will be better and we will have someone who won't change picchers so often.

 

Like going into this year, we thought the lineup woudl produce. It ahs to. I mean look at it:

 

Buxton

Mauer

Sano

Park

Arcia

Dozier

Kepler

catcher

shortstop

 

I want to see Kepler thrive. I want to see that strong center of the order.

 

The reality is that the Twins MAY have the ability to shed a lot of salary and contracts between now and the beginning of spring training. They won't be signing anyone, as it might still be a rebuild year and it could be dismal. But the hopes for 2018, when all the same players would likely return and you can make a hard decision on spending BIG on one starting pitcher and maybe spending some on one or two solid bullpen veterans at that point, as well as a powerful/versatile infielder (which Dozier might be at that point...but ocne a starter it is hard to become a super sub).

 

The big question is how many lumps do you continue to give the players in 2016, rather than fill the roster with replacement players that don't fit into the long-term scheme of the team. You have the ability to run a super shuttle service between the minors. You just need to have some 40-man roster spots open for those guys that need a look sooner rather than later.

 

 

New general manager. Don't strap them with the free-agent spendings of the past not working. 

A new President who also has baseball on-the-field smarts.

Probably new field staff. Lots of names from the minors (Dougie, Jake, Tommy Watkins).

Create another new uniform for everyone who cares to buy and make the lower seats in the outfield into drinking club seats (nope, let's get kids to the park - more personal appearances by current players!)

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

More of the same.....75 wins, mediocre veterans, rookies that don't match their promise.....unless the top changes, I see more of the same.

[KidBro]

I know what I want to happen, and much of it is congruent w/ the posts.  But does anyone honestly think TR will be a sellar at the deadline, only to step down at seasons end? By the time July is upon us if he hasn't already, I'd speculate that TR has made a decision if he is coming back in 2017.  I will pose this question also, but what are the chances that if he has made the decision he is stepping down after this season, he rides it out w/ this roster?  What are his incentives either way (other than mutual love w/ TD posters for the Hometown 9)? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I know what I want to happen, and much of it is congruent w/ the posts.  But does anyone honestly think TR will be a sellar at the deadline, only to step down at seasons end? By the time July is upon us if he hasn't already, I'd speculate that TR has made a decision if he is coming back in 2017.  I will pose this question also, but what are the chances that if he has made the decision he is stepping down after this season, he rides it out w/ this roster?  What are his incentives either way (other than mutual love w/ TD posters for the Hometown 9)? 

 

I have issues with TR's performance, but I have no issues with his integrity in terms of what he does. If he's decided to move on, i have no doubt he'll do what he thinks is right for this team in the long run.

[jorgenswest]

They need to look long term.

 

This winter's free agent group is poor and void of any good starting pitcher. There will be guys similar to the Santana, Hughes and Nolasco type signings. The lack of supply will lead to some bad commitments to decline phase mediocre pitching. The Twins need to avoid making those commitments.

 

The group following the 2018 season is tremendous at this point. The Twins young players will begin entering their prime seasons In 2019. Mauer and Santana will come off the books. Nolasco will have been off the books for a year. The Twins need to give themselves the pay roll flexibility to compete in free agency that winter.

 

Meanwhile, any commitments to middling players this off season needs to be short. They can overpay for two years instead of competing at 4 years. They need to find a staff that can develop this talent. I think there is little evidence that the current major league staff is elite in their ability to develop the skills of young players. They need to find that staff and they should be searching now.

 

Expect growing pains in 2017. Demand that the Twins hire a staff highly skilled in developing that growth. It might be a guy that they could turn to now in Mienkiewicz. What is the downside of finding out? It might take a couple of staff turnovers before they get to 2019.

[dgwills]

 

The sad thing is that there has been a thread like this every May since the 2011 season.

“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.” – Chinese Proverb

[kab21]

Why is everyone in such a hurry to get rid of Eduardo Nunez? Some are even non-tendering him.

 

These same plans are calling for trading Dozier and Plouffe and leaving the Twins with an IF of Sano, Polanco and some unknown player. There is nothing wrong with having a veteran like Nunez that can fill in when a prospect horrifically flops (like the CF situation virtually every season for the last decade). Other threads are even blasting the Twins for not having a decent veteran as plan B.