Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Vanimal46]

 

Eh, I don't buy it.

 

Stats be damned, Mauer did something no AL catcher in history has done... And he did it three times.

 

That in itself gets him strong consideration for the Hall.

 

Mauer has right around 50 career WAR and anyone at that mark should receive consideration. Given the rest of Mauer's trophies, he should get in.

Up until the beginning of this season, I was a Mauer HOF Doubter. With this sort-of bounce back season, I'm opening up more to the HOF prediction. 

Another 1-2 more sneaky .750-800 OPS seasons and he could make it. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

From today;

 

mike sixel  12:58 Is Mauer already a HoF player, or does he need more something?

 

august fagerstrom  12:58 Not a HoFer, the something he needs is for injuries/concussions to have not derailed his career at 30

Sounds more like a personal opinion, than a judgement on whether he actually makes it.  A lot of people (especially stats folks) seem to prefer a smaller, more exclusive HOF.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Up until the beginning of this season, I was a Mauer HOF Doubter. With this sort-of bounce back season, I'm opening up more to the HOF prediction. 

Another 1-2 more sneaky .750-800 OPS seasons and he could make it. 

I don't know that this season, or more like it, will do anything to boost Mauer's chances.  He's got a 112 wRC+, which is probably within the margin of error for his disappointing 2014 season (106).

 

Mauer's walks and power are up a bit this year, but guess what?  Walks and power are up across MLB.

 

Year - Mauer ISO - League ISO

2014 - .096 - .138

2015 - .115 - .153

2016 - .127 - .166

 

His walk rate increase this year outpaces the league's, and his K's have dropped slightly while increasing slightly across the league, so there is some progress.  But nothing that is really going to come up in a future discussion of his HOF chances -- that's basically going to come down to one's personal opinion whether his first 10 years were enough.

[nicksaviking]

 

Get ready for the scorching hot takes on Trout winning MVP soon... 

"Does he deserve MVP when his team is in last place?" 

My money is on Altuve. Dude is just crushing baseballs this season. 

 

Baseball would be smart if they added another trophy and be done with this divisive "can a guy on a last place team get the MVP award" debate that happens every year.

 

To me it seems pretty clear, a guy on a last place club by definition isn't very valuable.

 

We have the Cy Young, which can only go to a pitcher, yet the MVP can go to either batter or pitcher. Why don't they simply create the Ted Williams or Willie Mays award that goes to the best position player? It seems strange that there is this particular pitcher specific award but not an equivalent batter specific award.

[tobi0040]

Sounds more like a personal opinion, than a judgement on whether he actually makes it.  A lot of people (especially stats folks) seem to prefer a smaller, more exclusive HOF.

One of the more convincing arguments for me is where they rank all time for their position.

 

Mauer is basically a top ten catcher and only four catchers have higher WAR in their top 7 seasons, Bench, Carter, Piazza, and Pudge. Also interesting to note that Mauer missed several games in 2009, 2010, and 2013 which were all in his top seven. I agree with Spy that some like a real exclusive group, this feels pretty exclusive to me.

 

http://www.baseball-...rs/jaws_C.shtml

[D. Hocking]

 

But nothing that is really going to come up in a future discussion of his HOF chances -- that's basically going to come down to one's personal opinion whether his first 10 years were enough.

 

 

This has been discussed in another thread, but his chances are going to improve when he makes a big game/series winning play in the 2017 (or possibly 2018) World Series.

 

I think he has an outside chance.  I think part of it will be how much weight the voters give the concussion in messing up his career path when doing their evaluation and decide to focus more pre-concussion.  I think having a few solid seasons that better than the ones immediately after the concussion would help with that (and a game winning play in game 7 of the W.S.).

[tobi0040]

Baseball would be smart if they added another trophy and be done with this divisive "can a guy on a last place team get the MVP award" debate that happens every year.

 

To me it seems pretty clear, a guy on a last place club by definition isn't very valuable.

 

We have the Cy Young, which can only go to a pitcher, yet the MVP can go to either batter or pitcher. Why don't they simply create the Ted Williams or Willie Mays award that goes to the best position player? It seems strange that there is this particular pitcher specific award but not an equivalent batter specific award.

Yeah, baseball is pretty horrible about these things. Just like PED's and the HOF. Everyone has unwritten rules and votes based on different criteria.

 

For the MVP I think the unwritten rules are a pitcher will never win unless they have either been unreal for a long time or have an all time historic season. In 2004 for example, Johan had a WAR of 8.7 and finished 6th. Vlad won it with 5.4 and #2 was in the mid 4's. The others are you can win on a last place team like A-Rod, but only after you have been really really good for several years in a row.

 

To me, a player's value is completely separate from his teams standings. Heck, a 10 WAR player on the last place team is more valuable to his team than a 9 WAR player on a first place team. The teams standings is more of a qualifier for some. We could just have a computer pick based on agreed upon inputs, but this generates a lot more coverage, opinions, thought provoking conversations about baseball. That is the point after all.

[Vanimal46]

 

Baseball would be smart if they added another trophy and be done with this divisive "can a guy on a last place team get the MVP award" debate that happens every year.

 

To me it seems pretty clear, a guy on a last place club by definition isn't very valuable.

 

We have the Cy Young, which can only go to a pitcher, yet the MVP can go to either batter or pitcher. Why don't they simply create the Ted Williams or Willie Mays award that goes to the best position player? It seems strange that there is this particular pitcher specific award but not an equivalent batter specific award.

Great point, and one that makes a ton of sense. Way too much sense, in fact, that baseball won't implement it for years. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Baseball would be smart if they added another trophy and be done with this divisive "can a guy on a last place team get the MVP award" debate that happens every year.

 

To me it seems pretty clear, a guy on a last place club by definition isn't very valuable.

 

We have the Cy Young, which can only go to a pitcher, yet the MVP can go to either batter or pitcher. Why don't they simply create the Ted Williams or Willie Mays award that goes to the best position player? It seems strange that there is this particular pitcher specific award but not an equivalent batter specific award.

 

you just made my head explode......by your logic, is Bryant all that valuable? The Cubs would still be in first w/o him.....The best player is the most valuable player, instead of looking at team results, ask yourself "If I could have a player that I would pay the most money for his production this year...who would that be?". That is the most valuable player. 

 

His team results are meaningless to that discussion.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The more I look at the numbers, the more I shake my head over the "Mauer isn't a HoF player" argument.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_C.shtml

 

Sort by WAR, Mauer is ninth. Every guy in front of him is in the HoF (or on their way).

 

Sort by OPS+, he's, again, ninth.

 

Sort by WAR7, he's fifth.

 

He was considered a very good defender behind the plate. He won three batting titles, something no other catcher in MLB history can say (and how often can we say something like that about a modern player?).

 

Exactly what hasn't Mauer done to deserve entry into the Hall of Fame?

[tobi0040]

The more I look at the numbers, the more I shake my head over the "Mauer isn't a HoF player" argument.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_C.shtml

 

Sort by WAR, Mauer is ninth. Every guy in front of him is in the HoF (or on their way).

 

Sort by OPS+, he's, again, ninth.

 

Sort by WAR7, he's fifth.

 

He was considered a very good defender behind the plate. He won three batting titles, something no other catcher in MLB history can say (and how often can we say something like that about a modern player?).

 

Exactly what hasn't Mauer done to deserve entry into the Hall of Fame?

I completely agree. I do find it funny though, if you polled the average person within this market I bet he would not be considered a hall of famer.

[Mike Sixel]

I hate the HoF discussion...I never should have asked that question....

[bluechipper]

 

Exactly what hasn't Mauer done to deserve entry into the Hall of Fame?

Play for a big market team.

 

And, oh yeah...hit dingers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

One of the more convincing arguments for me is where they rank all time for their position.

Mauer is basically a top ten catcher and only four catchers have higher WAR in their top 7 seasons, Bench, Carter, Piazza, and Pudge. Also interesting to note that Mauer missed several games in 2009, 2010, and 2013 which were all in his top seven. I agree with Spy that some like a real exclusive group, this feels pretty exclusive to me.

http://www.baseball-...rs/jaws_C.shtml

 

 

The more I look at the numbers, the more I shake my head over the "Mauer isn't a HoF player" argument.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_C.shtml

 

Sort by WAR, Mauer is ninth. Every guy in front of him is in the HoF (or on their way).

 

Sort by OPS+, he's, again, ninth.

 

Sort by WAR7, he's fifth.

 

He was considered a very good defender behind the plate. He won three batting titles, something no other catcher in MLB history can say (and how often can we say something like that about a modern player?).

 

Exactly what hasn't Mauer done to deserve entry into the Hall of Fame?

 

To be fair, while that's a listing of catchers, their WAR isn't broken down by position.  When his catching career ended, Mauer was behind a number of those guys in total WAR -- Munson, Simmons, Tenace (Tenace also split time at 1B), Freehan, and someone called Wally Schang.  He also would have trailed Munson and Simmons in JAWS at that time.  True, Mauer did it in 10 years, which speaks to his peak (although Munson did it in 11, the first of which was only a September call-up), but his "career catcher" case isn't so clear-cut.

 

Also, despite "10 years catching", Mauer only had 885 career starts at catcher, barely more than contemporary Victor Martinez (828).  Will he be seen as a catcher by the voters?

[jimmer]

 

I completely agree. I do find it funny though, if you polled the average person within this market I bet he would not be considered a hall of famer.

funny is one word to use :-) Many of those are people are focusing on the huge contract he got.  Though he played well for a few years after he signed the new contract, the complaining started in 2010.  And then he got a concussion which affected him. 

 

Overall, I think a good chunk of it mostly centers around contract. how dare he get that huge contract, not hit for power and get a concussion! Everyone knows when you get a contract like that, you become a huge power guy and stay healthy.  And of course, everyone knows when you switch to 1B, your hitting skills morph into a power hitting type.  Comes with the glove:-)

 

 Ironically, there never seemed to be outrage of him getting underpaid when he was worth 30+M and getting paid much less than that.

[nicksaviking]

 

you just made my head explode......by your logic, is Bryant all that valuable? The Cubs would still be in first w/o him.....The best player is the most valuable player, instead of looking at team results, ask yourself "If I could have a player that I would pay the most money for his production this year...who would that be?". That is the most valuable player. 

 

His team results are meaningless to that discussion.

 

It's not called the best player award though and the voters for the award aren't asked who they'd pay the most for to start their team. I also absolutely do not agree that the best player and the most valuable player are the same thing, just as I wouldn't think the best movie (The Godfather) and the most important movie (Citizen Kane) have to be the same thing.

 

I digress though because the debate wasn't really my point, it was simply that I'd like the absence of a debate because I recognize everyone views this differently. Make a high profile award for the best hitter, just like they do the best pitcher and then there's no conflict.  The NHL and College Football do this, though I'd draw the line at one additional award, not 2-3 thousand like those sports.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Will he be seen as a catcher by the voters?

I think so because of two things:

 

1. His peak along with the MVP and batting titles came at the position

 

2. He left the position due to injury, not age and/or ineffectiveness

 

Given how much focus has been put on concussions in the past decade, I think voters will view Joe in a (generally) positive light due to his enormous peak and sudden collapse that forced him off his natural position.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

you just made my head explode......by your logic, is Bryant all that valuable? The Cubs would still be in first w/o him.....The best player is the most valuable player, instead of looking at team results, ask yourself "If I could have a player that I would pay the most money for his production this year...who would that be?". That is the most valuable player. 

 

His team results are meaningless to that discussion.

That's your opinion, Mike.

 

"Value" can be measured individually or partially as a team stat.

 

I have no problems with voters leaning toward the player who plays for a better team, provided the two players are relatively close in performance.

 

In my opinion, the MVP is about the value that player brings his team and that can be measured in many, quite different, ways. It doesn't have to be constrained only to abstract numbers favored by sabre disciples.

 

If a voter wants to reward a player for knocking in 140 runs in a season, that's a fair way to (partially) judge a player. "Value" doesn't only work in the abstract. If Miggy drives in 140 runs, that happened. The Tigers won more games because Miguel Cabrera drove in a bunch of runs. Who cares if he was "lucky" while doing it? Who cares if the team helped boost that number? In the end, he's the guy who initiated an action that resulted in a run(s) scored.

 

Frankly, I don't get too upset about the MVP or how writers vote. When Mauer wasn't unanimous, I didn't get upset about it (and got into an argument with Nick Nelson over it, actually). Different people value different things and that's okay.

 

Generally speaking, I only get upset about awards when voters do stupid things such as allow a player's offensive output to influence their Gold Glove votes. That's absurd; there's not a lot of wiggle room in the definition of "best defender at the position".

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think so because of two things:

 

1. His peak along with the MVP and batting titles came at the position

 

2. He left the position due to injury, not age and/or ineffectiveness

 

Given how much focus has been put on concussions in the past decade, I think voters will view Joe in a (generally) positive light due to his enormous peak and sudden collapse that forced him off his natural position.

I tend to agree, but it will be a bit of a test.

 

I wonder if a Mauer election would spark renewed interest in inducting Thurman Munson?

[tobi0040]

funny is one word to use :-) Many of those are people are focusing on the huge contract he got.  Though he played well for a few years after he signed the new contract, the complaining started in 2010.  And then he got a concussion which affected him. 

 

Overall, I think a good chunk of it mostly centers around contract. how dare he get that huge contract, not hit for power and get a concussion! Everyone knows when you get a contract like that, you become a huge power guy and stay healthy.  And of course, everyone knows when you switch to 1B, your hitting skills morph into a power hitting type.  Comes with the glove:-)

 

 Ironically, there never seemed to be outrage of him getting underpaid when he was worth 30+M and getting paid much less than that.

I completely agree the contract is 90% of the reason why. I will say the local media here kind of tee'd up some of contract hate/frustration. I am not saying it is right or wrong, but Charley Walters and others sold this kid who so wisely invested his $5m signing bonus as an 18 year old that he could live off that forever. A humble, down to earth, person who both didn't need the money and wanted to win here. There is a ton of judgement that has gone on, most of it unfair. But I think this is a major reason why things changed after that contract. And of course the team went south after this deal and some wrongly think that is the sole reason why.

[PseudoSABR]

Had Mauer played in another era he'd likely either be still catching or retired due to his concussions.  That his injury was a concussion, a brain injury which still too little is known, I think will factor in HOF voters minds.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

 

 

Generally speaking, I only get upset about awards when voters do stupid things such as allow a player's offensive output to influence their Gold Glove votes. That's absurd; there's not a lot of wiggle room in the definition of "best defender at the position".

 

But but but... for the love of Jeter how could you espouse such heresy?

[gheggs42]

 

He won three batting titles, something no other catcher in MLB history can say (and how often can we say something like that about a modern player?).

 

Exactly what hasn't Mauer done to deserve entry into the Hall of Fame?

That alone should be enough of an argument to put him in the Hall, the most demanding position in the sport and he was also an MVP, he was forced to move from catcher, how can anyone hold that against him?

[Mike Sixel]

It could be worse:

 

Murdoc: Who has the most work to do for 2017 and beyond: A’s, Twins, Rays, or Angels?

 

9:14   Paul Swydan: Definitely the Angels.

 

 

Moose: What will be the team with the longest playoff drought from today on?
9:56
Paul Swydan: Angels. Perhaps the Twins. Jury is out on them until they hire a good GM. Hopefully they can manage that this time around.
9:56
Jeff Zimmerman: Rays … no money in a tough Division
9:56
Paul Swydan: Braves are in the mix, as are, as Jeff said, the Rays.
9:57
Paul Swydan: I really have no idea what the Rays’ plan is. Both this year and last year their goal seemed to be to get to 75 wins.
9:57
Jeff Zimmerman: Angels at least have money
9:57
Paul Swydan: True.

[nytwinsfan]

I liked this thread better back when it wasn't yet another debate about Mauer's value/worth/accomplishments.

 

[Vanimal46]

 

I liked this thread better back when it wasn't yet another debate about Mauer's value/worth/accomplishments.

Have no fear, this thread is going to get back on the right track! 

http://images4.fanpop.com/image/photos/19900000/Matt-Foley-motivational-speaker-chris-farley-19980103-320-240.jpg

[jimmer]

The discussion about Mauer stemmed from a question asked and answered at Fangraphs. Seems pretty on track to me since the discussion stemmed from the question of whether or not Mauer will be a HOFer.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The discussion about Mauer stemmed from a question asked and answered at Fangraphs. Seems pretty on track to me since the discussion stemmed from the question of whether or not Mauer will be a HOFer.

 

Which I still regret asking. I'll do better next time, promise.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Which I still regret asking. I'll do better next time, promise.

I thought it was a good discussion. The mouth-breathing was minimal.

[Thrylos]

 

Eh, I don't buy it.

 

Stats be damned, Mauer did something no AL catcher in history has done... And he did it three times.

 

That in itself gets him strong consideration for the Hall.

 

Mauer has right around 50 career WAR and anyone at that mark should receive consideration. Given the rest of Mauer's trophies, he should get in.

 

Piazza with 63.7 is in.  Torre with 62.3 is not in (as a player.)  Mauer has 46.7 (ahead of Posada btw, 44.7)

 

Interestingly, Puckett has 44.9 and similarly his career was cut short (but not declined) because of injuries.   

 

In a weird way, I think if Mauer stopped playing after 2013 and retiring with 43.0 WAR, he would have had a better case than now.

 

Any way, it is not automatic in or out regarding Mauer...