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Mike Sixel

By Mike Sixel
in Minnesota Twins Talk

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bluechipper FCL Twins

bluechipper

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Also from Fangraphs today:

 

Jack C. :Travis Blankenhorn now slashing .308/.356/.538 between Rookie and A-ball. 12 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR in 53 games. He is obviously a few years away from having the chance to make a Major League roster, but should the Twins view him as a third baseman of the future? Or are you not so high on him?

 

Eric Longenhagen: Don't think I'd label him "3B of the Future" already but he's a prospect worth following. PA kid with good hand-eye and bat control, fringe athlete, body has held serve so far.

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Wilson provided tremendous value in the field and on the basepaths too.

 

If Buxton gets to 46 career WAR, and 31 WAR from ages 23-28, I really don't care how it breaks down as far as offense/defense/baserunning.  It's good.  Yeah, he's probably not a star into his 30's, but he's a star in his 20's with those WAR numbers for sure.

 

Crisp is at 29 WAR and very near the end of the line.  Also Crisp didn't have much of a peak, as he was only worth 13.9 WAR over his first 6 full seasons.

Before the days of WAR and Bill James, Willie Wilson was one of the scariest players in the league, even if All-Star selections were based on RBI's and fame. His career was affected by illegal drugs (it was the 70's, man). Had he been clean, he probably would have easily cleared 50 WAR. That would be a fantastic outcome for any 22 year-old not named Mike Trout.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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JT
12:38 What's Byron Buxton's new ceiling (I didn't have time to listen to the podcast)?

 

Eno Sarris
12:39 I was saying ceiling is more Carlos Gomez, median more Cameron Maybin.

70charger Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

70charger

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JT

12:38 What's Byron Buxton's new ceiling (I didn't have time to listen to the podcast)?

 

Eno Sarris

12:39 I was saying ceiling is more Carlos Gomez, median more Cameron Maybin.

Carlos Gomez's career, or his peak minus the whole falling off a cliff and getting cut thing? If we get peak Gomez for a decade I'm pretty happy.

jimmer Wichita Wind Surge

jimmer

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Up until this season, seemed most had a considerably higher level of expectations Buxton would need to meet without being considered a disappointment.  As seems to be the case across the board with this team, we keep lowering our expectations.

 

A Maybin type career, for me, would be a bust.  The thing about suggesting a ceiling for a player is that players rarely reach that ceiling.  it happens, but rarely.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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Carlos Gomez's career, or his peak minus the whole falling off a cliff and getting cut thing? If we get peak Gomez for a decade I'm pretty happy.

 

must be on the podcast, which I have not listened to...

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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highlights from the AFL post on FG:

 

and Twins top prospect Nick Gordon round out an impressive group of infielders.

Sleeper: Twins C Mitch Garver has the requisite defensive chops to stay behind the plate, a patient approach, and saw an uptick in his power output this season. He’s been hitting since his promotion to Triple-A.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/arizona-fall-league-roster-highlights/

 

Thrylos St Paul Saints

Thrylos

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Huh, I hadn't really looked at Garver's numbers in a few months.

 

He's putting together a solid season. He's a bit on the old side but is also a catcher.

 

-1.5 of the average age at AAA.  and about +1.5 at each other stop.  First pro stop E-town at 22, and then a level a season, and 2 this one.  Could not be rushed more, his first time with the wooden stick (and took him a year to adjust.)   Definitely the Twins should give him a shot to earn a spot in ST.

 

(What that piece got wrong is that he has been hitting all season, not when he went to Rochester.  Matter of fact, his AA OPS is pretty much identical - 7 points higher)

snepp Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

snepp

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Random Fangraphs nugget.

 

 

The term “pitch to contact” has become anathema to Minnesota Twins fans. The club has consistently ranked at, or near, the bottom in strikeouts for several seasons running. No team in either league has a lower K-rate over the past decade.

 

Look for that to change. According to acting general manager Rob Antony, the organization’s pitching philosophy has been moving into a missing-more-bats direction.

 

“We’ve ranked fairly high in strikeout percentage in the minor leagues over the last few years,” Antony told me this summer. “That’s been a point of emphasis. For a long time, we were maybe too worried about command and control, about not walking guys. We need to do a better job of putting guys away. That’s become a philosophy — a point of emphasis — for us throughout the minor leagues.”

 

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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Dozier stuff from today's chat:

 

Big Tall T  12:44 Just read your great article on Dozier. How long do you think he can be successful with the pull% and Fly%? I mean, he's been successful with it a while now

 

august fagerstrom
12:44 I mean he's not a true-talent .300 ISO guy all of the sudden
12:45 But if he's learned to lay off the outer-third stuff and punish the mistakes inside, he's still going to get mistakes inside

 

 

Buxton stuff:

Snarfle
12:59 Too early to be excited by New Buxton? Normal answer is yes, but has he ever had a stretch like this in the majors?

 

 

august fagerstrom
12:59 I mean, he had 3 homers in his first 109 games, and then has had 3 homers in his last 5 games
1:00 So no, he's never had a stretch like this
Add to that the four homers he hit in a row in AAA two weeks ago, and yeah, consider me excited

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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Klaw chat today...

 

John: Buxton has been on a tear since he was called up again. Is this just small sample size or did he alter his approach or mechanics?

Klaw: I know of no change in approach or mechanics, and it’s just seven games, but I’m happy to see it.

Brett: Why do you think the Twins didn’t call up ABW or Garver when they’re giving consistent ABs to Schafer and Centeno?

Klaw: Walker has 202 strikeouts this season. Those are good reasons.

 

Bruce: Maybe Im having some selction bias, but rookie hitters doing so much better than rookie pitchers this year. Even looking at the distibution in top prospect lists, are we in a down cycle for pitching prospects?

Klaw: I’ve mentioned this before but I think differences between the minor and major league baseballs are the root cause.

Tye: How historically impressive has Brian Dozier been since the AS break? It seems like you don’t even hear anything about him.

Klaw: Playing for a non-contender doesn’t help. I wrote in June that he should be in the All-Star Game over Nunez as the Twins’ rep and was told by a couple of Twins fans that this was dumb because Dozier was having a bad season.

 

Clay: Does Buxton have potential to be as good defensively in center as Kiermaier?

Klaw: That’s a very high bar but I think Buxton’s speed and arm could make him a top 3 CF in baseball.

 

Marshall: Has Gonsalves performance this year raised his profile at all in your opinion?

Klaw: Not really. Two-pitch starter struggles with the breaking ball. Walked a lot of guys in double-A but was young for the level (turned 22 on July 8th). Back end starter?

 

Marshall: The power that Dozier has developed over the last few years seems really out of character in comparison to his early scouting reports and minor league numbers, can you think of any other players that had something similar happen to them when they made the bigs?

Klaw: Matt Duffy’s 2015 season comes to mind.

 

JG: AA is rumored to be a candidate for the prez of baseball operations for the Twins. Would he be a good hire?

Klaw: He’d be an outstanding hire. He really fits what they have said they’re looking for.

 

Marshall: If the Twins called would you answer, or is your current gig just too good (work/life balance, time with your daughter, seemingly good editorial freedom) for you to entertain a change at this juncture in your life?

Klaw: If the Twins called, I would recommend three candidates who are more qualified than I am.

bluechipper FCL Twins

bluechipper

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That was pretty encouraging from Klaw, besides the Gonsalves part.

 

Matt Duffy hit 12 HRs in 2015. I know that he had basically no power in the minors, but I don't see how that's much of a comparison to Dozier's MLB transformation.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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I threw in the pitching/hitting/rookie question because that's been his answer about Berrios over and over.

 

As for Gonsalves, if he's now a number 4, while not what we all hope, that's still a pretty good outcome. Having never seen him, I can only scout the stats, and I like the stats a lot.

sthpstm College Ball

sthpstm

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Gonsalves has talked about working on his slider, but BA and now Law have talked about not using it and/or it being below average.  I'm curious what the reality is and how much he's actually used it in game situations.

diehardtwinsfan Minnesota Twins

diehardtwinsfan

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I'm guessing Law hasn't seen Gonsalves personally, so to be fair he's relying on reports that may be old. I do know that Gonsalves spent a lot of this offseason working on a breaking pitch...  If that's what really helped him this season, then  his ceiling is higher than 4... if it isn't... let's not go there :)

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

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Today's FG Sullivan chat:*

 

gooey jello
11:58 since they seem to be several years away still, should the twins trade dozier in the offseason?
Dan Szymborski
11:58 They should at least listen to offers.
12:00 If he keeps hitting a billion home runs, the Twins won't be able to afford him after 2018. And if he doesn't, well, then not trading him loses value.

 

Patrick
12:05 Is the value of a middle infielder who can hit 20+ homers reduced because of the huge spike in HRs this year, or do you think this is a one year aberration?
Dan Szymborski
12:05 It's hard to tell. Home run bumps usually stick more often than not, the Dale Sveums tend to be the exception.

 

Big Joe Mufferaw
12:19 Who is having the biggest successful outlier season this year??
Dan Szymborski
12:19 Probably Dozier now!@

 

Bork
12:37 How will you react when the Braves/Twins go worst to first and face off in the World Series next year?
Dan Szymborski
12:37 Assume I'm having a coma dream.

 

*I've asked the FG's chats for two weeks what the Twins should do, and now it gets answered....sort of.

jimmer Wichita Wind Surge

jimmer

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Ooops, ya, my bad.

 

which should be kinda clear given the name in the responses....

It was crystal clear, just letting people know who was chatting now if they wanted to join the chat.

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