Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

But change in baseball takes time. Look at the Pirates, Royals, Nationals, Indians rebuilds. All of those rebuilds took around 8 years.

8 years is probably a little high for most of those.  They were bad for a long time, but that's not necessarily how long the rebuilds took.

 

The Pirates won 94 games and made the postseason in 2013, Huntington's 6th season as GM.

 

Cleveland won 92 games and made the postseason in 2013 too, only 4-5 years after the trades of Lee and Sabathia, respectively.  6th season after their last postseason.

 

The Nationals were bad for a long time, so it's a little hard to pinpoint, but they won 98 games and made the postseason in 2012, their 6th season out of the MLB orphanage.

 

Really the only 8 year rebuild in that list was the Royals, who didn't make the postseason until Dayton Moore's 8th season at the helm.  (Of course, he also inherited a historically struggling franchise.)

 

Not that the Twins were doing too badly yet on this score, 2016 being TR's 5th season back at the helm.  6th season since their last postseason.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

A couple of things about your point. I may have skipped over it in a post but I'm aware of that perception. Results matter at the Major League level. Nobody in this office is denying that. Remember, we fired Bill Smith at the end of 2011. So we already fired one GM. I think if Terry came from another organization he would have been given more leeway from the public. Brad Steil took over as Minor League Director in 2013 and made a lot of changes to how we do things in the minor leagues. He has turned over about 50% of his staff the last few seasons. Again, if Brad came from outside the organization the perception of our player development system might be slightly different. We fired a manager and a major league coaching staff. People have been held accountable for the losing. But change in baseball takes time. Look at the Pirates, Royals, Nationals, Indians rebuilds. All of those rebuilds took around 8 years. I'm not complaining but this is how I see it from my perspective. Changes have been taking place for the last four or five seasons and you are now starting to see some of the results. We deserve criticism. We've lost 95+ games in 11, 12, 13, & 14. We took a big step forward last year and now took a step back in '16. But I think you can see the entire system is not broken.

Since the Twins were making progress (overall) and only in the 5th year of their rebuild under TR, his firing suggests maybe a bigger problem is ownership?  Their expectations, and maybe capricious / reactionary judgements?  Firings for the sake of PR?  (Don't worry, I don't expect you to reply, more just offering discussion points for the community.)

 

I've long advocated for some outside blood in the organization -- not necessarily wholesale changes, but bringing in an outside deputy for TR a few years ago would have been nice, and a proactive look ahead to a post-TR era (and avoiding another Smith era).

 

But when they didn't do that, it didn't make much sense to me to fire TR when they did.  If you've given him this long, you might as well give him another year (especially if they really are still committed to Molitor for 2017).  I hope the new head of baseball ops, whoever it is, gets on more solid footing with ownership in regards to these issues.

[Mike Sixel]

Today....

 

Byron: I’m back in Rochester cuz I stink. Everybody else has given me advice so what say you?

 

Klaw: Stay there and hope either Molitor & staff are replaced or that you’re traded to an organization better equipped to develop you as a hitter.

 

 

mcgive_it_to_me: With Ben Cherington being a top candidate for the Twins VP/GM role I hear a lot of about how the good of his Red Sox tenure (developing their system) comes with the bad (free agent signings like Panda). Wouldn’t a lot of that pressure be taken off Cherington in Minnesota where ownership would never mandate him to make splashy free agent signings each winter?

 

Klaw: He’s not “a top candidate” because I don’t believe they have any candidates lined up.

 

JG: Berrios getting rocked again today. What needs to change?

 

Klaw: Notice how many pitching prospects – highly ranked ones – have struggled right out of the gate this year? (Michael Fulmer, you may be excused from this discussion.) The ball was already different from the minor league ball anyway; perhaps the juiced ball this year (hat tip, 538) has exacerbated this issue.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Today....

Byron: I’m back in Rochester cuz I stink. Everybody else has given me advice so what say you?

Klaw: Stay there and hope either Molitor & staff are replaced or that you’re traded to an organization better equipped to develop you as a hitter.


mcgive_it_to_me: With Ben Cherington being a top candidate for the Twins VP/GM role I hear a lot of about how the good of his Red Sox tenure (developing their system) comes with the bad (free agent signings like Panda). Wouldn’t a lot of that pressure be taken off Cherington in Minnesota where ownership would never mandate him to make splashy free agent signings each winter?

Klaw: He’s not “a top candidate” because I don’t believe they have any candidates lined up.

JG: Berrios getting rocked again today. What needs to change?

Klaw: Notice how many pitching prospects – highly ranked ones – have struggled right out of the gate this year? (Michael Fulmer, you may be excused from this discussion.) The ball was already different from the minor league ball anyway; perhaps the juiced ball this year (hat tip, 538) has exacerbated this issue.

 

Wait, there is a juiced ball this year?!?!?!

[Vanimal46]

If there's one thing to note about KLaw, he seems to be very consistent with his Twins takes this year. He's been advocating a tear down of the manager and staff for a while now. 

His comment about not having candidates lined up... I wonder is a jab that the Twins' opportunity isn't intriguing? Maybe I'm reading into that comment too much. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Wait, there is a juiced ball this year?!?!?!

That is breaking news to me too. 

[Mike Sixel]

That is definitely a thought.....been posted about all over, I think they switched processes this year.

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-juiced-balls-the-new-steroids/

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/17109063/the-mlb-home-run-explosion-2016-juiced-baseballs-blame

 

One interesting thing I recall reading....the theory that a faster ball (if hit squarely) will go further than a slower ball? Not true, but I gotta find that again, because it seems wrong to me.

 

edit:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2015/09/22/exit-velocity-harder-a-pitch-comes-in-the-harder-it-goes-out/72624244/

 

Some interesting stuff in there.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If there's one thing to note about KLaw, he seems to be very consistent with his Twins takes this year. He's been advocating a tear down of the manager and staff for a while now. 

His comment about not having candidates lined up... I wonder is a jab that the Twins' opportunity isn't intriguing? Maybe I'm reading into that comment too much. 

 

He earlier said that a real search wouldn't start until September, so no, that was not a slam.

 

he's spent the last few years lauding their minor league system, but he has ripped every team that has hired a manager with no experience. Every single one of them.

[nytwinsfan]

 

If there's one thing to note about KLaw, he seems to be very consistent with his Twins takes this year. He's been advocating a tear down of the manager and staff for a while now. 

His comment about not having candidates lined up... I wonder is a jab that the Twins' opportunity isn't intriguing? Maybe I'm reading into that comment too much. 

 

Either that or he's suggesting they are going to hire internally no matter what, and any alleged outside candidate interviews are just pretense.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Either that or he's suggesting they are going to hire internally no matter what, and any alleged outside candidate interviews are just pretense.

 

I don't think that's it.....there was an earlier quote I missed that said any news before Sept is fake news....

[Celebrity Weddings!]

 

I wonder is a jab that the Twins' opportunity isn't intriguing? Maybe I'm reading into that comment too much. 

 

You are. His chat today indicated that it's a search that will hit its stride in the off-season:

 

Reeve: Heard any updates on the Twins GM search?

Klaw: That’s not going to go anywhere till September. Anything you hear before then – oh, this guy’s high on their list – is BS.

 

Makes sense to me. An in-season GM search sounds like it freights itself with some huge obstacles.

[Vanimal46]

 

He earlier said that a real search wouldn't start until September, so no, that was not a slam.

 

he's spent the last few years lauding their minor league system, but he has ripped every team that has hired a manager with no experience. Every single one of them.

That makes sense. 

He also has a point about hiring managers with no experience. The recent examples are all crashing and burning as we speak.  

[Vanimal46]

 

You are. His chat today indicated that it's a search that will hit its stride in the off-season:

 

Reeve: Heard any updates on the Twins GM search?

Klaw: That’s not going to go anywhere till September. Anything you hear before then – oh, this guy’s high on their list – is BS.

 

Makes sense to me. An in-season GM search sounds like it freights itself with some huge obstacles.

Thanks for clearing that up. Hard to tell by a one sentence reply on a chat what he meant by it. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

One interesting thing I recall reading....the theory that a faster ball (if hit squarely) will go further than a slower ball? Not true, but I gotta find that again, because it seems wrong to me.

 

When hit squarely, energy gets transferred back into the ball. That's why your hand hurts when you don't make good contact with a pitch... you're absorbing that energy instead of the ball... just how much that extra tick matters, who knows.  There's probably some sort of ratio...

[Craig Arko]

When hit squarely, energy gets transferred back into the ball. That's why your hand hurts when you don't make good contact with a pitch... you're absorbing that energy instead of the ball... just how much that extra tick matters, who knows.  There's probably some sort of ratio...

Seems like a good place to start.

 

http://www.real-world-physics-problems.com/physics-of-hitting-a-baseball.html

[Mike Sixel]

 

When hit squarely, energy gets transferred back into the ball. That's why your hand hurts when you don't make good contact with a pitch... you're absorbing that energy instead of the ball... just how much that extra tick matters, who knows.  There's probably some sort of ratio...

 

Well, that link I included.....or the link below....

[Parker Hageman]

2nd pitch, I'll argue that Parker is wrong.I don't believe that toe tap is a planned strategy.If it is, it's a really stupid one.As shown in the video, that swing was not more compact.

 

 

I'm not wrong and I hereby accept your apology. 

[Mike Sixel]

What, no one could do this while I was in Crater Lake National Park?

 

Bill: Two interesting articles on Kepler last week in Fangraphs seeming to point different directions for him. Could Kepler’s pitch recognition ability account for any of his unexpected power, or does the batted ball/expected power profile, mean that despite advanced pitch recognition he is still not making the type of contact that would lead you to expect more than 15 or so homers in a season. Where do you see his power/average falling

10:09 Jeff Sullivan: Here’s the problem I have with the pitch-recognition idea: this year, 288 hitters have batted at least 200 times. Kepler ranks sixth-lowest in Z-Swing% – O-Swing%

 

10:11 Jeff Sullivan: Now that doesn’t prove anything. Joe Mauer is even lower! But it suggests some imprecise decision-making. And in terms of exit velocity on balls hit in the air, Kepler’s average ranks 266th out of 336. He’s right by Darwin Barney and Cesar Hernandez

 

10:12 Jeff Sullivan: I think Kepler is an interesting hitter, and the Twins are desperate for players with upside. I’m not convinced yet he’ll become more than a third outfielder. That’s a starter, of course, but not a star

[PseudoSABR]

 

10:12 Jeff Sullivan: I think Kepler is an interesting hitter, and the Twins are desperate for players with upside. I’m not convinced yet he’ll become more than a third outfielder. That’s a starter, of course, but not a star

Sell high!!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sell high!!

 

Can't. Tell. IF. Serious.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Can't. Tell. IF. Serious.

I was gonna go all caps, but I thought the extra exclamation point muddled the tone pitch perfect.

 

That said,  Kepler's stroke combined with his pitch recognition at least give the foundation for a better player than a third outfielder.  

 

I mean when you're in the business of prognostication, you probably hedge your predictions regularly, and are rarely convinced--the operative word Sullivan used--anyone will be a star. 

[nytwinsfan]

Marc Hulet at Fangraphs is very high on Gonsalves. This is very nice to read:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/prospect-stock-watch-margot-bauers-gonsalves/

 

 

Stephen Gonsalves | LHP | Twins
ETA: mid-2017
Value: Rising (Underrated)

Gonsalves is probably one of the best prospects in the minors that you’ve never heard of… and it’s probably because he plays for Minnesota. If he were in a New York or Chicago organization he’d probably be a top 50 prospect. The southpaw, a former fourth-round pick, opened the year in high-A ball but quickly proved too advanced for A-ball. He’s had similar success in double-A and has held batters to a .187 average on the season. Despite being a fly-ball pitcher, Gonsalves does an exceptional job of keeping the ball in the park and has allowed just nine home runs in his four-year career (347.2 innings). With a strong pitcher’s frame capable of soaking up innings and three average-or-better offerings, Gonsalves has the makings of a No. 2 or 3 starter in the Majors if he continues along this development path.

 

[ashbury]

Marc Hulet at Fangraphs is very high on Gonsalves. This is very nice to read:

SeLl hIgH!!!1!

 

[Shaitan]

"Third outfielder"

 

lol at some of these terms being thrown out these days.

[bluechipper]

 

"Third outfielder"

 

lol at some of these terms being thrown out these days.

Same here. I hope Max Kepler is as much of a 3rd outfielder as Christian Yelich is.

[Vanimal46]

 

"Third outfielder"

 

lol at some of these terms being thrown out these days.

Whatever makes people feel like they're plugged into the league, I guess. Kind of makes me want to submit a question asking if Joe Mauer can keep it up to remain the 1st 1B next season. 

[Intramural Legend]

 

"Third outfielder"

 

lol at some of these terms being thrown out these days.

 

I just hope we continue with the approach of starting 3 outfielders! 

[Mike Sixel]

I don't get the disdain, it is a short cut answer in a chat, where they are trying to answer as many questions as possible. I'll take the odds the writer is "more plugged in" than anyone here besides Goin....

[Mike Sixel]

from the prospect chat today:

 

Jack C.
2:14 Thoughts on Twins' Luiz Arraez? .344/.383/.450 in 95 games with the Kernels this year. Still only 19 years old. Someone to keep an eye on?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
2:15 Definitely worth monitoring. Bat-first 2B type. Body offers little projection and the swing isn't geared for much power but he has bat speed, could be plus hit.

 

Tunnel Snakes Rule
2:24 Is there real concern for Jose Berrios? Or is this just a case of still learning to pitch to MLB hitters?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
2:24 I'd wait to see where the velo is next spring before panicking but I know I'm getting there.

[jimmer]

 

I don't get the disdain, it is a short cut answer in a chat, where they are trying to answer as many questions as possible. I'll take the odds the writer is "more plugged in" than anyone here besides Goin....

thank you.

 

Remember when people were talking about Kiley from Fangraphs being a hack and not knowing what he was talking about? The whole, 'who is he and why should we bother listening to him' schtick (because he didn't see some of our guys as good as we the experts did). All he had done is been in MLB organizations and then later got hired as Assistant Director of Baseball relations. 

 

Good times...