Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Vanimal46]

 

The Twins are going to have rotation issues, but the Mets just went to the WS and the only free agent arm was the entirely affordable Colon. I don't think the folks currently in charge are capable of drafting and trading for Mets caliber starters, but they may not be in charge long.

Hypothetically, how would people feel about the rotation/competitiveness if in the off season the Twins were able to swing a trade for someone like Chris Archer?

The competitiveness depends entirely on what they would have to give up for Archer. I would guess that takes a 3-4 prospect package to acquire him. 

[tobi0040]

The Twins are going to have rotation issues, but the Mets just went to the WS and the only free agent arm was the entirely affordable Colon. I don't think the folks currently in charge are capable of drafting and trading for Mets caliber starters, but they may not be in charge long.

 

Hypothetically, how would people feel about the rotation/competitiveness if in the off season the Twins were able to swing a trade for someone like Chris Archer?

We have a lot of prospects in our system and trading for a guy like Archer who is under control through 2021 at reasonable rates would be a nice move. It would be expensive, no doubt. But you add a guy of that caliber along with Berrios and Ervin and what we have in AA/AAA and I think you have a competitive to potentially good rotation in the back half of 2017/early 2018.

 

The devil is in the details.

[HitInAPinch]

 

The competitiveness depends entirely on what they would have to give up for Archer. I would guess that takes a 3-4 prospect package to acquire him. 

Quick question:  would you include either/both of  Buxton and Sano?

Want value; gotta serve up value.

[Vanimal46]

Quick question: would you include either/both of Buxton and Sano?

Want value; gotta serve up value.

A quick question deserves a quick answer. I'd consider including Buxton. Would not consider Sano.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Quick question: would you include either/both of Buxton and Sano?

Want value; gotta serve up value.

NO.

 

Never trade young, performing position players for pitching. It will bite you in the ass far more often than it will succeed.

 

Pitching is far too volatile. A guy can throw 97 and kill it one season and suddenly throw 93 and be awful the following season. Young pitching falls off a cliff with alarming frequency.

[Vanimal46]

 

NO.

Never trade young, performing position players for pitching. It will bite you in the ass far more often than it will succeed.

Pitching is far too volatile. A guy can throw 97 and kill it one season and suddenly throw 93 and be awful the following season. Young pitching falls off a cliff with alarming frequency.

I can see this side too. Problem is we're running out of avenues to explore to acquire good pitching. Buying it hasn't worked out well, developing our own is taking a bunch of time. 

There's probably only a few pitchers out there that I would consider giving up a young, performing position player for. Archer's a borderline candidate for that. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

NO.

Never trade young, performing position players for pitching. It will bite you in the ass far more often than it will succeed.

Pitching is far too volatile. A guy can throw 97 and kill it one season and suddenly throw 93 and be awful the following season. Young pitching falls off a cliff with alarming frequency.

 

No.  Might consider positions of excess if Tampa were say interested in BD to presumably flip along with guys who are somewhat redundant like ABW, but no way I'd send Buxton or Sano over there.  I'm guessing that would probably kill the deal too.

[alarp33]

What about Sonny Gray? I'm guessing it would take quite a bit less to acquire him than Archer.  

 

I wouldn't include Buxton, Sano or Kepler for either of them.  

 

But could you build a deal around Polanco and Stewart or Gonsalves?  

 

I'm firmly in the camp of trade Dozier and let Polanco play 2B... but if Polanco can be used to get a front end pitcher I would be all for it

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Never trade young, performing position players for pitching. It will bite you in the ass far more often than it will succeed.

Buxton is "performing"?

 

Sano I will grant, even if he's slumping he performed well in MLB pretty recently, but Buxton?  I get that it's still not a large sample, but it's been large enough and bad enough (and his injuries frequent enough) to suggest we're probably not going to get as much surplus value from him over the next few years as we had previously expected.

 

If he still has enough potential to headline a trade for Chris Archer, you'd have to consider it, no?

[drivlikejehu]

You're better off bashing your way into the playoffs than trying to trade good position players for pitchers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

What about Sonny Gray? I'm guessing it would take quite a bit less to acquire him than Archer.  

 

I wouldn't include Buxton, Sano or Kepler for either of them.  

 

But could you build a deal around Polanco and Stewart or Gonsalves?

Maybe, if you could get him that cheaply, but Gray has had a much more troubling season than Archer.  I wonder if it would even be worth the effort, especially since we'd only get 3 years of control at arb prices.

[alarp33]

 

Maybe, if you could get him that cheaply, but Gray has had a much more troubling season than Archer.  I wonder if it would even be worth the effort, especially since we'd only get 3 years of control at arb prices.

 

I'm not sure the Twins could realistically even be in the Archer sweepstakes.  If he's available this winter, teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers who are all in need of pitching have soo much more to offer.  

 

I'm trying to find someone in that next tier.  Obviously with Gray you would need to find out what in the hell happened this year.  

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

I agree, the Yankees had a brilliant trade deadline. Trouble is, no one was going to give the Twins a prospect even remotely close to that for the likes of Suzuki, Kintzler, or even Santana.

 

The Twins were not in any position to follow the Yankee's lead. They did very well in getting the talent they got, as this Fangraphs report illustrates rather clearly. People were calling for them to simply dump Nolasco for nothing and take anything they could get for Abad, and even Nunez got much more than anyone here was expecting.

 

I'm not sure how one could criticize the Twins for hanging on to those guys for now. It's fairly safe to assume that offers for those three, if any, were underwhelming at best, and we'd hear plenty of complaints if they got a paltry return for them. I trust they're still with the Twins for good reason.

I think, of course, it's entirely possible the offers were underwhelming. But "safe to assume"?

No way. It's entirely possible that there were fair offers and they just over value some of those guys.

[Brock Beauchamp]

No. Might consider positions of excess if Tampa were say interested in BD to presumably flip along with guys who are somewhat redundant like ABW, but no way I'd send Buxton or Sano over there. I'm guessing that would probably kill the deal too.

Yeah. It's a different argument if we're talking about moving a guy with organizational flexibility like Dozier or even Polanco.

 

Having a backup plan in place makes it a lot easier to roll the dice.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Buxton is "performing"?

 

Sano I will grant, even if he's slumping he performed well in MLB pretty recently, but Buxton? I get that it's still not a large sample, but it's been large enough and bad enough (and his injuries frequent enough) to suggest we're probably not going to get as much surplus value from him over the next few years as we had previously expected.

 

If he still has enough potential to headline a trade for Chris Archer, you'd have to consider it, no?

Eh, maybe Buxton... But I'm still high on Byron. The injuries are more concerning to me than anything else.

 

But no Sano. Not even in the discussion.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Never trade young, performing position players for pitching. It will bite you in the ass far more often than it will succeed.

Pitching is far too volatile. A guy can throw 97 and kill it one season and suddenly throw 93 and be awful the following season. Young pitching falls off a cliff with alarming frequency.

You know, Tampa once traded a young "performing" position player to the Twins for a young pitcher, back in the 2007-2008 offseason.

 

I think if you have significant concerns about the future performance of the position player, you can consider them just like any other asset in acquiring a pitcher.

[bluechipper]

 

Well, everyone loves the Braves rebuild a lot more than the Twins' rebuild.......that might be why. I'd say the Reds are in trouble, not that good, and in a very hard division. 

The Braves have done a good job adding minor league talent. The difference between them and the Twins is that all of their talent are still considered shiny prospects, while the Twins young talent is gaining experience in the MLB.

 

The Twins should not be in the same conversation as the Reds, Braves, Phillies, Brewers, and probably the Rays and A's too.

[bluechipper]

Wasn't it just this past offseason when we were discussing Berrios or Kepler for Sonny Gray? This is why trading for pitching can be a huge risk.

[Whammy]

 

The Braves have done a good job adding minor league talent. The difference between them and the Twins is that all of their talent are still considered shiny prospects, while the Twins young talent is gaining experience in the MLB.

 

The Twins should not be in the same conversation as the Reds, Braves, Phillies, Brewers, and probably the Rays and A's too.

 

Mostly agree, although the Phillies and Braves have the financial resources to "flip the switch" as soon as their shiny prospects get to the majors, should they choose to.

 

The other 4 are in similar or worse financial situations than the Twins and the Twins have the upper hand on major league talent.

[USAFChief]

I'm not sure the Twins could realistically even be in the Archer sweepstakes.  If he's available this winter, teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers who are all in need of pitching have soo much more to offer.  

 

I'm trying to find someone in that next tier.  Obviously with Gray you would need to find out what in the hell happened this year.

 

How can the Twins go from top 3 farm system to not "realistically ... In the Archer sweepstakes" in less than a season?

[alarp33]

 

How can the Twins go from top 3 farm system to not "realistically ... In the Archer sweepstakes" in less than a season?

 

Well currently their farm system is likely outside the top 10 or 15, since all of these guys graduated from prospect status.  

 

I'm guessing you aren't giving up Berrios, since that would kind of be counter-intuitive.  Giving up Kepler, Buxton or Sano probably doesn't do much either.. isn't the only real chance of competing in the next year or two these guys all taking a leap?

 

I guess a package headlined by Buxton, Jay, etc. may get you in the mix, but I'm not sure how much the shine has worn off Buxton (even though I still firmly think he will be a star)  

 

Is that a better package than the Red Sox could easily offer, centered around Moncada, Kopech, etc? Probably not, and those are just 2 of the Red Sox top 5 prospects, they could trump anything by offering a Betts

 

 

[SwainZag]

 

Well currently their farm system is likely outside the top 10 or 15, since all of these guys graduated from prospect status.  

 

I'm guessing you aren't giving up Berrios, since that would kind of be counter-intuitive.  Giving up Kepler, Buxton or Sano probably doesn't do much either.. isn't the only real chance of competing in the next year or two these guys all taking a leap?

 

I guess a package headlined by Buxton, Jay, etc. may get you in the mix, but I'm not sure how much the shine has worn off Buxton (even though I still firmly think he will be a star)  

 

Is that a better package than the Red Sox could easily offer, centered around Moncada, Kopech, etc? Probably not, and those are just 2 of the Red Sox top 5 prospects, they could trump anything by offering a Betts

 

I'll add that Archer's contract makes him that much more valuable as well.  He contract going forward is 2017: $4.8M, 2018: $6.2M, 2019: $7.5M 2020 Team Option: $9M ($1.8M buyout) 2021 Team Option: $11M. 

 

If we thought Santana's 2 year deal was in the cheap range going forward, Archer's is an absolute steal.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You know, Tampa once traded a young "performing" position player to the Twins for a young pitcher, back in the 2007-2008 offseason.

And Tampa, being much smarter than the Twins, required Minnesota to send back a positional prospect along with that pitcher.

[alarp33]

 

I'll add that Archer's contract makes him that much more valuable as well.  He contract going forward is 2017: $4.8M, 2018: $6.2M, 2019: $7.5M 2020 Team Option: $9M ($1.8M buyout) 2021 Team Option: $11M. 

 

If we thought Santana's 2 year deal was in the cheap range going forward, Archer's is an absolute steal.

 

Correct, I'm guessing Archer's value is potentially as high or higher than Sale's with that contract.  I think realistically only a small handful of teams could get in the stakes

[Mike Sixel]

Some on Kepler:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-change-max-kepler-and-statcast-power-comps/

 

[Whammy]

 

Some on Kepler:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-change-max-kepler-and-statcast-power-comps/

 

String him up!!!!

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And Tampa, being much smarter than the Twins, required Minnesota to send back a positional prospect along with that pitcher.

Sure, although I wonder if they would have still pulled the trigger on just Young for Garza.  I don't have enough confidence in Bill Smith to conclude that Bartlett was ultimately required to make the deal (it was fairly early in that offseason too). 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sure, although I wonder if they would have still pulled the trigger on just Young for Garza. I don't have enough confidence in Bill Smith to conclude that Bartlett was ultimately required to make the deal (it was fairly early in that offseason too).

That's fair. It was such a terrible deal from top to bottom that it's hard to parse the details.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'll add that Archer's contract makes him that much more valuable as well. He contract going forward is 2017: $4.8M, 2018: $6.2M, 2019: $7.5M 2020 Team Option: $9M ($1.8M buyout) 2021 Team Option: $11M.

 

If we thought Santana's 2 year deal was in the cheap range going forward, Archer's is an absolute steal.

Wow. With such a team friendly contract, and control through 2021, I wouldn't even consider moving him without being completely blown away if I'm Tampa.

I'd probably ask for Buxton, Kepler, Polanco and Jay from the Twins.

No way I do that if I'm the Twins.

[Vanimal46]

Everyone's feeling the need to write about Kepler. Here's another Fangraphs article about him. 

A Case Study in Pitch Recognition with Max Kepler.