Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Jack Goin]

 

In terms of Keith Law/national perception I think a lot of that has to do with the results (in this case lack of results) that have happened with the Twins over the past few off-seasons:

 

Signing Nolasco, Signing Hunter, Signing and resigning Pelfrey, Extending Suzuki after 1 half, Extending Hughes after 1 good (albeit it great season), bullpen additions, etc don't exactly scream of the analytic department having a big say (or any real say) in a lot of those decisions. It just seems like more of the same decisions that had been going on for several years prior: Nick Blackburn extension comes to mind.

 

I'll definitely take some blame on Nolasco. I do not believe all of his struggles have been performance related. Some have been injury related. If you go back and look Ricky had improved his swinging strike rate, he used his SL more which helped that, and maybe was a signal that he was understanding his stuff. He always seemed to under perform his peripherals. He also had some trouble with HR vs LHH and I thought our park factors might aid in that as well. Looking back at it I didn't give enough credit on a switch from the NL East to the AL Central in our evaluations/projections and also some TrackMan data on a pitch or two.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'll definitely take some blame on Nolasco. I do not believe all of his struggles have been performance related. Some have been injury related. If you go back and look Ricky had improved his swinging strike rate, he used his SL more which helped that, and maybe was a signal that he was understanding his stuff. He always seemed to under perform his peripherals. He also had some trouble with HR vs LHH and I thought our park factors might aid in that as well. Looking back at it I didn't give enough credit on a switch from the NL East to the AL Central in our evaluations/projections and also some TrackMan data on a pitch or two.

 

Wow, that's a lot of information, Jack. I don't think anyone predicted things would go this badly with Nolasco.....

[Vanimal46]

 

I'll definitely take some blame on Nolasco. I do not believe all of his struggles have been performance related. Some have been injury related. If you go back and look Ricky had improved his swinging strike rate, he used his SL more which helped that, and maybe was a signal that he was understanding his stuff. He always seemed to under perform his peripherals. He also had some trouble with HR vs LHH and I thought our park factors might aid in that as well. Looking back at it I didn't give enough credit on a switch from the NL East to the AL Central in our evaluations/projections and also some TrackMan data on a pitch or two.

Interesting to hear the thought process behind signing Nolasco.. I'm not a huge stat guy myself, but others on here have pointed out several times during his stint with this team that he's consistently under performing his peripherals. It's too bad things have not worked out at all with Ricky in a Twins uniform. 

Some of us were debating in another thread before if there's a method for comparing pitchers who make the switch from the NL to the AL? This stems from the Shelby Miller thread where we were debating if his numbers would mirror Gibson's if Miller were to be traded to the AL.

[alarp33]

 

I'll definitely take some blame on Nolasco. I do not believe all of his struggles have been performance related. Some have been injury related. If you go back and look Ricky had improved his swinging strike rate, he used his SL more which helped that, and maybe was a signal that he was understanding his stuff. He always seemed to under perform his peripherals. He also had some trouble with HR vs LHH and I thought our park factors might aid in that as well. Looking back at it I didn't give enough credit on a switch from the NL East to the AL Central in our evaluations/projections and also some TrackMan data on a pitch or two.

 

Good info, thanks for sharing. 

 

I still question the idea of building a rotation by paying full price for #4-type veteran starters, over overpaying for a #1/2, or taking 1-2 year flyers on guys. Though I would guess that falls on the person in the GM chair

[DaveW]

Wow, that's a lot of information, Jack. I don't think anyone predicted things would go this badly with Nolasco.....

Yeah true, while many weren't jumping for joy over the signing, nobody was predicting or could have predicted that he would be this bad. I think everyone sort of assumed that worst case he would be a #4 type.

 

However the Pelfrey signings, and Hughes/Suzuki extensions (the timing of) are what cause me more angst then the Nolasco one (even though Nolasco has provided zero value, and Suzuki has rebounded a bit)

[DaveW]

I'll definitely take some blame on Nolasco. I do not believe all of his struggles have been performance related. Some have been injury related. If you go back and look Ricky had improved his swinging strike rate, he used his SL more which helped that, and maybe was a signal that he was understanding his stuff. He always seemed to under perform his peripherals. He also had some trouble with HR vs LHH and I thought our park factors might aid in that as well. Looking back at it I didn't give enough credit on a switch from the NL East to the AL Central in our evaluations/projections and also some TrackMan data on a pitch or two.

That is a lot of info, thanks for sharing.

 

So in that case, it sounds like a move that just frankly didn't work out/nobody could have predicted, since injuries etc are tough to predict.

 

As far as diving deeper into the Sabr stats: are you guys focusing more on hitting and pitching than fielding? Or are the head guys just more willing to listen to your teams thoughts on hitting and pitching? Because honestly, the last two "RF" solutions point to anything but a deep dive. Hunter had been declining in the OF for years and Sano....well.... We know how that turned out.

 

I'm not trying to bash the process or start an argument or anything, because it is nice to have someone in the org who is answering questions, being frank etc. I'm just mostly curious on what aspects of advanced statistics the decision makers are more "open" to. From the 30,000 foot fans view it looks like the fielding aspect is lagging a bit behind.

[Jack Goin]

 

That is a lot of info, thanks for sharing.

So in that case, it sounds like a move that just frankly didn't work out/nobody could have predicted, since injuries etc are tough to predict.

As far as diving deeper into the Sabr stats: are you guys focusing more on hitting and pitching than fielding? Or are the head guys just more willing to listen to your teams thoughts on hitting and pitching? Because honestly, the last two "RF" solutions point to anything but a deep dive. Hunter had been declining in the OF for years and Sano....well.... We know how that turned out.

I'm not trying to bash the process or start an argument or anything, because it is nice to have someone in the org who is answering questions, being frank etc. I'm just mostly curious on what aspects of advanced statistics the decision makers are more "open" to. From the 30,000 foot fans view it looks like the fielding aspect is lagging a bit behind.

Go back and look at Torii's UZR/150. In 2012 he was +14. In 2013 he was -5.1 which is within or close to within a range of being average. In 2015 he was essentially league average at 0.4. In 2014 he was terrible according to the metrics. But remember, most fielding data needs to be looked at through a three year lens and still be regressed probably. Was he great? Probably not. Terrible? Probably not. If you look at some Statcast data from 2015 he was roughly average among outfielders. The Torii signing was more than just the numbers. 

[jimmer]

Mr. Goin,

 

Are you a fan of UZR/150 over DRS?

 

I prefer DRS cause it tells us a players total defensive value and it's based on a rolling one year scale as opposed to 'several years' like UZR. So, with DRS, each year is measured on it's own merits.

 

Anyway, Hunter wasn't a guy in his prime. I think as players get to Hunter's age, where you expect serious decline, one can just look at the last couple seasons to know what you have.  This seems to apply to offense as well as defense though defensively the drop seems much more predictable.

 

In 2013, 23 RF had 600 or more innings in RF, he ranked 17th in UZR 150 and 22nd in DRS. (but worth 2.7 WAR due to his 118 WRC+).

 

In 2014, 26 RF had 600 or more innings in RF, he ranked last (by far) in UZR 150 and last (by far) in DRS. (and worth 0.0 WAR overall).  The offense and defense had dropped off quite a bit.

 

Hunter bounced back somewhat in 2015.  25 RF had 600 or more innings in RF,  and he was 10th in UZR/150, but tied for 19th in DRS. He was worth 0.5 WAR with us.

 

So yeah, Hunter signing was more than just stats.  I'd be interested in knowing if you endorsed his signing from a stats standpoint or whether the move was made for more PR standpoint.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Interesting to hear the thought process behind signing Nolasco.. I'm not a huge stat guy myself, but others on here have pointed out several times during his stint with this team that he's consistently under performing his peripherals. It's too bad things have not worked out at all with Ricky in a Twins uniform. 

Some of us were debating in another thread before if there's a method for comparing pitchers who make the switch from the NL to the AL? This stems from the Shelby Miller thread where we were debating if his numbers would mirror Gibson's if Miller were to be traded to the AL.

 

Ricky has done that his entire career. It's why I tend to rail on the whole luck vs. not luck issue. Nolasco's problem is not that he's unlucky.  It's also why he was a bit more popular of an option when he was a FA...  teams felt they could fix him and get a bargain for their deal. 

[drivlikejehu]

Nolasco is an unusual pitcher that is legitimately easier to hit than his peripherals would suggest. But that tendency takes an extremely long time to stabilize - even after a lengthy career there is some uncertainty as to what "true" BABIP ability really was. And most likely that true ability varied a lot during the career, year to year and even start to start.

 

The issue with Nolasco isn't really Nolasco, it's the Twins' inability to develop pitching in-house.

 

 

[ashbury]

We have approximately a 5 person department including two full-time developers.

I'm curious, are any of them attending the SABR convention in Miami this week?

[Jack Goin]

I'm curious, are any of them attending the SABR convention in Miami this week?

No. Our focus the next week is the Trade Deadline.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Obviously a lot of our time right now is evaluating other legs systems and their strengths and weaknesses. That is a continual process but heightened the month of July. Analyzing players and groups of players. Next month we will start on our college player analysis for 2017 Draft. Working with our training staff and using Statcast data to understand injuries and workloads and when to rest players. That is just a few items.

Thank you very much for sharing this context, even if its stripped down and vague. That fact you shared it is pretty cool. 

 

Still waiting for the PM invite for the beer and conversation;) I need out of the house.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

I'll definitely take some blame on Nolasco. I do not believe all of his struggles have been performance related. Some have been injury related. If you go back and look Ricky had improved his swinging strike rate, he used his SL more which helped that, and maybe was a signal that he was understanding his stuff. He always seemed to under perform his peripherals. He also had some trouble with HR vs LHH and I thought our park factors might aid in that as well. Looking back at it I didn't give enough credit on a switch from the NL East to the AL Central in our evaluations/projections and also some TrackMan data on a pitch or two.

I was totally wrong him, and was the pitcher signing I was MOST excited about of all of them because of those underperforming peripherals you mention. I felt he just always had bad luck, but there is obviously something behind his bad luck and underperforming. I can't fault that signing, but I definitely fault whomever has given him as many chances to prove himself to something other than he is for so long. 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

No. Our focus the next week is the Trade Deadline.

Lol, awesome response. I sure hope so, and damn glad that you guys will (hopefully) be giving input and have say in who comes and goes, and they "why's" of it. Good luck with it too.

[Jham]

I don't know if I'm encouraged or scared that a member of our analytics team pays attention to our posting on the Daily...  I think mostly scared...  

[jimmer]

 

I don't know if I'm encouraged or scared that a member of our analytics team pays attention to our posting on the Daily...  I think mostly scared...  

There are quite a few posters who love to continuously take pot shots of posters critical of the Twins. Not directed at individuals, but in blanket statements.  Things like TD experts or computer GMs and so on.  Cheap shots vaguely written, but still obvious.  These posts always seem to avoid being deleted.  

 

So, it's nice to see Mr. Goin values listening to opinions and considering them even if they differ from his own.  Even nicer to see him admit he's made some mistakes.

[Jham]

 

There are quite a few posters who love to continuously take pot shots of posters critical of the Twins. Not directed at individuals, but in blanket statements.  Things like TD experts or computer GMs and so on.  Cheap shots vaguely written, but still obvious.  These posts always seem to avoid being deleted.  

 

So, it's nice to see Mr. Goin values listening to opinions and considering them even if they differ from his own.  Even nicer to see him admit he's made some mistakes.

Goodness, I hope I'm not one of them!  I wouldn't come to Twinsdaily if it weren't for the analysis.  Anyway, my post was mostly for fun.  I agree that Mr. Goin's contributions add greatly to the conversation.  When I expressed fear, it was literally at the prospect that he'd take MY opinions seriously.  I thought we'd be an above .500 team this year.  I was super off!  I thought Hughes, Gibson, and Rosario would have big years.  I was super off again!  I'm assuming other posters are also frequently wrong...  anyway, it was a joke.  Twinsdaily is easily the most comprehensive collection of Twins knowledge available to the average reader.  But we can also be emotional, short sighted, egocentric, and subject to the lowest common denominator (judged by our most extreme posts). 

[The Wise One]

 

Hunter was worth a whopping 0.5 WAR last year.  10.5M for 0.5 WAR.  I'm not sure that should be labeled as having worked.  When Ryan talked about signing Hunter the one thing he and Hunter mentioned was defensive metrics and how the metrics said Hunter was bad on defense.  Both of them tossed that notion out as rubbish.

 

Our losses this year has zero to do with losing Hunter.  We've already gotten more from Kepler. The biggest difference this year is not us losing a 1/2 WAR guy. It's that we didn't haven't one fantastic month like last year that hides how bad this team is combined with the sequencing being not so advantageous as it was last year.

 

Oh, and did you seriously bring up inheriting Blackburn's contract as if that was some sort of albatross?  Lot of excuses for Ryan in yourt post.  Any mistakes by Ryan you want to acknowledge that he wasn't supposedly forced to do out of desperation or someone else's incompetence?

WAR does not measure everything a player does.

 

What part about listing all the mistake pitchers Ryan tried to make major league pitchers did you miss? There was a whole list of them that you somehow missed. They were all in the post if you go back and read it. Albatros? Did you even understand the content?

Why are the Twins signing some of the pitchers they have? PTSDPavano's injury and implosion, inheriting Blackburn's contract, Cole DeVries, Sam Deduno,PJ Walters, Esmerling Vasquez, Liriano imploding,Scot Diamond, Pedro Hernandez,Vance,Alber's mirage of pitching 2 great games,Johan Pino,Nolasco, and Hughes had to seem and upgrade. Nolasco's injury and or implosionscould make it seem more imperative after that. Last year Nolaso's injury and Santana's suspension should have had Ryan on the suicide watch.

Where out of any of that says Ryan did a great job with pitching? 8 AAA pitchers, and not even mention Marquis, Duensing, Swarzak , Correia and Pelfrey does not constitute saying that he did a good job with pitching.  Pitching has been a mess. All Nolasco had to do was come in and pitch like he had and he would have looked great. Instead one could wonder if DeVries as been pitching in a beer league and available. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

I'll definitely take some blame on Nolasco. I do not believe all of his struggles have been performance related. Some have been injury related. If you go back and look Ricky had improved his swinging strike rate, he used his SL more which helped that, and maybe was a signal that he was understanding his stuff. He always seemed to under perform his peripherals. He also had some trouble with HR vs LHH and I thought our park factors might aid in that as well. Looking back at it I didn't give enough credit on a switch from the NL East to the AL Central in our evaluations/projections and also some TrackMan data on a pitch or two.

Jack, thanks for stopping in and posting thoughtful and honest commentary on TD. It may have started out of frustration, in defense against a dig about your department, but your series of posts provided valuable insight into your work and the realities of the Twins org.

 

In terms of Nolasco, I hope your push for him, and the subsequent fairly lousy results, did not hurt your standing in the org at all. I love that you are looking for players that have unnoticed upside or under appreciated aspects of their games that the Twins could take advantage of.

 

Good luck in the next week! My personal plug is for the goal for the week to be landing a catching prospect who is almost ready to contribute. There aren't too many that could be avaIlable. One of the few fits I see, from a team in contention, with obvious holes they are looking to fill that the Twins could provide, who is blocked at catcher on the majors roster for the foreseeable future...is the Dodgers. Mike Gallego's nephew looks like a solid all-around prospect, who might be lower on the Dodger's prospect lists than he probably should be. (Maybe it's because he is older/was drafted out of college.).

 

Thanks again for posting!

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'll definitely take some blame on Nolasco. I do not believe all of his struggles have been performance related. Some have been injury related. If you go back and look Ricky had improved his swinging strike rate, he used his SL more which helped that, and maybe was a signal that he was understanding his stuff. He always seemed to under perform his peripherals. He also had some trouble with HR vs LHH and I thought our park factors might aid in that as well. Looking back at it I didn't give enough credit on a switch from the NL East to the AL Central in our evaluations/projections and also some TrackMan data on a pitch or two.

Once again, thanks for the valuable input, Jack.

 

As for Nolasco, there were questions behind the signing but no one expected him to perform to this level. He never displayed this array of injury and underperformance in his career and he simply isn't that old. The fact some of his peripherals remained steady make it even more baffling.

 

I think Nolasco is a clear-cut case of "nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition". He's been horrible. Even the biggest detractors of the signing argued he'd be "below average", not "horrible".

[Mike Sixel]

There is a bit on the Twins in this article, but it's not really about the Twins.....what is it like to be traded?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/players-view-what-its-like-to-get-traded/

 

[d-mac]

 

I'll definitely take some blame on Nolasco. I do not believe all of his struggles have been performance related. Some have been injury related. If you go back and look Ricky had improved his swinging strike rate, he used his SL more which helped that, and maybe was a signal that he was understanding his stuff. He always seemed to under perform his peripherals. He also had some trouble with HR vs LHH and I thought our park factors might aid in that as well. Looking back at it I didn't give enough credit on a switch from the NL East to the AL Central in our evaluations/projections and also some TrackMan data on a pitch or two.

 

 

Wow, that's a lot of information, Jack. I don't think anyone predicted things would go this badly with Nolasco.....

 

Agreed, I like to consider myself statistically fluent. I thought the Nolasco signing was a good one at the time too. I don't think that enough analysis has been done generally in the saber community in regards to pitchers changing leagues. Anecdotally, it appears to me that pitchers going from the NL to AL get penalized more than the gains a pitcher receives going from the AL to NL. Furthermore, #1 and #2 type starters make the transition from NL to AL relatively easily, but #3's turn into #5 types and #4-5 types cannot be effective AL starters. 

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm curious, are any of them attending the SABR convention in Miami this week?

 

 

No. Our focus the next week is the Trade Deadline.

 

That's probably for the best or they would have probably been stuck pretending to read Ash's resume.

 

I'm sure he would have bought them a beer though!

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

There are quite a few posters who love to continuously take pot shots of posters critical of the Twins. Not directed at individuals, but in blanket statements.  Things like TD experts or computer GMs and so on.  Cheap shots vaguely written, but still obvious.  These posts always seem to avoid being deleted.  

 

So, it's nice to see Mr. Goin values listening to opinions and considering them even if they differ from his own.  Even nicer to see him admit he's made some mistakes.

Yes, its a business, so this is a good place to get some intel on what the feel is of the team.

 

Also, as dumb as it may sound...there is often some very smart and forward thinking  ideas on players, roster makeup, lineup configuration, and statistics or sound logic for these ideas on here....and thereafter debated on here. Honestly, I bet most analytics department guys read and posted on sites like these before they started working where they do. He could find some good ideas on here if he knows how to identify them from the bad. 

 

It also can't hurt to have his department to show to the upper management that "hey, even the fanbase is behind ideas like this or that."

[AlwaysinModeration]

...there is often some very smart and forward thinking ideas on players, roster makeup, lineup configuration, and statistics or sound logic for these ideas on here...."

Whoa, whoa whoa. Let's not get carried away, now shall we?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

In terms of Nolasco, I hope your push for him, and the subsequent fairly lousy results, did not hurt your standing in the org at all. I love that you are looking for players that have unnoticed upside or under appreciated aspects of their games that the Twins could take advantage of.

Agreed.  And part of that is taking advantage when good value comes to you, like the original Hughes deal.  I'm guessing that offseason, and TR's performance overall, would be viewed very differently if we hadn't blown up the original Hughes contract the following winter.  We basically squandered the positive counterpoint to Nolasco's struggles, and Santana's suspension.

[bird]

 

Wow, that's a lot of information, Jack. I don't think anyone predicted things would go this badly with Nolasco.....

 

 This didn't stop a lot of people from absolutely savaging Ryan retrospectively about this decision. Goes to show us that, analytics or no, a decision that isn't half-bad can produce awful results. Then we often find a scapegoat upon whom to place 100% of the blame for the results while cutting zero slack regarding the quality of the decision. It's refreshing to hear Jack accept some blame for the imperfect part of the Nolasco decision. Learned that bit of humility somewhere. Maybe Ryan?

[alarp33]

 

 This didn't stop a lot of people from absolutely savaging Ryan retrospectively about this decision. Goes to show us that, analytics or no, a decision that isn't half-bad can produce awful results. Then we often find a scapegoat upon whom to place 100% of the blame for the results while cutting zero slack regarding the quality of the decision. It's refreshing to hear Jack accept some blame for the imperfect part of the Nolasco decision. Learned that bit of humility somewhere. Maybe Ryan?

 

Why would it surprise you that 100% of the blame for terrible results for the past 6 years is being placed on the person in charge of building the baseball team? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

 This didn't stop a lot of people from absolutely savaging Ryan retrospectively about this decision. Goes to show us that, analytics or no, a decision that isn't half-bad can produce awful results. Then we often find a scapegoat upon whom to place 100% of the blame for the results while cutting zero slack regarding the quality of the decision. It's refreshing to hear Jack accept some blame for the imperfect part of the Nolasco decision. Learned that bit of humility somewhere. Maybe Ryan?

 

I fail to see how the GM is a "scapegoat" for the quality of the roster. That was his accountability. Jack may offered advice, but Ryan made the decisions that built this roster. He got to choose who to put in AAA or MLB. He got to decide which FA to sign or not. He got to decide who to trade for, or not.