Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[PseudoSABR]

 

Sadly, this sounds way too familiar to the typical Twins prospect. Hoping that he becomes more than that, but he scares me as a guy who's stuff plays up less in the bigs. So want to be wrong though.

Not many Twins prospects have been noted for their deception so much as their ground ball tendencies and 'control' the strike zone.   His stuff still might not play up, but he's not in the Radke/Slowey/Gibson mold exactly.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

This notion we don't have an analytics department has gotten out of control. By my calculations the average analytics department is roughly five people. That number can be difficult to nail down because of titles and not sure who does what inside a front office. That includes the Marlins at 1 and the Yankees and Dodgers at 11 or 12. We have approximately a 5 person department including two full-time developers. I'm not looking to get into some type of argument here, but we have a department. I'm not sure what else to say on this matter.

Dude, as much as I would like to banter back and forth to learn more about the Twins situation compared to other clubs analytically....I am just impressed you commented here, if you are the guy who works for the Twins. Props for posting if so, and I won't personally argue with you, but will on this topic in general.

[Jack Goin]

 

Dude, as much as I would like to banter back and forth to learn more about the Twins situation compared to other clubs analytically....I am just impressed you commented here, if you are the guy who works for the Twins. Props for posting if so, and I won't personally argue with you, but will on this topic in general.

Argue on this topic in general? That we don't have an analytics department?

 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Argue on this topic in general? That we don't have an analytics department?

No, NOT argue...meant I would just like to socialize over a beer and talk back and forth over what we are and are not doing, and just analytics over all (where are we going as a game, team, etc.) Like I said, I give you props for posting, and that was it. My "would love to banter" was a quick typing of word that would have been better replaced with discuss or something like that, over a mythical social encounter that will never happen. My reply was meant to read as a pat on the back to you, not the opposite. But, I will take the social encounter if its offered;)

 

*I guess I did write argue in general on the topic at the end. But, was just a general comment about the topic in the future, not anything specific or negative. Bad writing on my end.

[DaveW]

Even though there obviously is an analytics team, I think most could agree that the overall results of the front office (and team) as a whole have been way less than ideal, total system failure sums it up right.

 

The question then becomes: was it the analytics team that was letting the Twins down? Or were they not getting enough influence to some of the more old school leaders of the front office (TR+RA)? Combo of both? I'd guess it was the 2nd choice personally.

 

No matter what the answer is, I think hiring a GM with no analytical background (or very minimal-who doesn't place a large emphasis on it) is a huge mistake moving forward.

 

That guy Gleeman threw out sounds like a solid lead.

[TheLeviathan]

 

This notion we don't have an analytics department has gotten out of control. By my calculations the average analytics department is roughly five people. That number can be difficult to nail down because of titles and not sure who does what inside a front office. That includes the Marlins at 1 and the Yankees and Dodgers at 11 or 12. We have approximately a 5 person department including two full-time developers. I'm not looking to get into some type of argument here, but we have a department. I'm not sure what else to say on this matter.

 

Why do you think a national perception exists?  I think locally it exists out of bitterness about how the front office hasn't changed much over such a long period of time (and how the methods seem slow to change), but how do you explain someone like Keith Law saying that?

 

Just curious if you have a different insight into it.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Not many Twins prospects have been noted for their deception so much as their ground ball tendencies and 'control' the strike zone.   His stuff still might not play up, but he's not in the Radke/Slowey/Gibson mold exactly.

That is true, but think it stilt matches some others that I am too lazy to look up tonight. I like the guy and think he has a good future...just am not YET buying the local hype for him. Not that I am not buying him at all, just that I don't think he will be great, but see him developing more thought too. At least he is succeeding now, right.

[Jack Goin]

 

No, NOT argue...meant I would just like to socialize over a beer and talk back and forth over what we are and are not doing, and just analytics over all (where are we going as a game, team, etc.) Like I said, I give you props for posting, and that was it. My "would love to banter" was a quick typing of word that would have been better replaced with discuss or something like that, over a mythical social encounter that will never happen. My reply was meant to read as a pat on the back to you, not the opposite. But, I will take the social encounter if its offered;)

I appreciate it. Thanks for being civil. That gets lost behind a keyboard sometimes.

[Jack Goin]

 

Why do you think a national perception exists?  I think locally it exists out of bitterness about how the front office hasn't changed much over such a long period of time (and how the methods seem slow to change), but how do you explain someone like Keith Law saying that?

 

Just curious if you have a different insight into it.

I don't know. I wonder that myself. Maybe I have not done a good enough job of messaging. I'll take the blame for that.

[DaveW]

In terms of Keith Law/national perception I think a lot of that has to do with the results (in this case lack of results) that have happened with the Twins over the past few off-seasons:

 

Signing Nolasco, Signing Hunter, Signing and resigning Pelfrey, Extending Suzuki after 1 half, Extending Hughes after 1 good (albeit it great season), bullpen additions, etc don't exactly scream of the analytic department having a big say (or any real say) in a lot of those decisions. It just seems like more of the same decisions that had been going on for several years prior: Nick Blackburn extension comes to mind.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

I appreciate it. Thanks for being civil. That gets lost behind a keyboard sometimes.

You are in analytics...so, you can figure how to private message me, so we can have that mythical beverage(s) and good-natured conversation about baseball and about analytics. I am in 4th place in my OBP keeps league, won the world series 2 years in a row on OOTP baseball (with forced trades on), am addicted to Fangraphs/BP/Statcast and have all sorts of dumb ideas that could make you giggle at my ineptitude. I will let you pay though, as a Director it is only right. Hope you at least shake your head and laugh, as I know the message is not coming.

 

**Lied, I dropped to 5th after a tough week from Giolito and Glasnow. Forgive me. Yes, I am making fun of myself and not serious...except about that beer.

[DaveW]

 

I don't know. I wonder that myself. Maybe I have not done a good enough job of messaging. I'll take the blame for that.

You should do another Q&A here, the first one seemed to go well and I know nearly everyone appreciated the insight/behind the curtain info.

[Jack Goin]

 

In terms of Keith Law/national perception I think a lot of that has to do with the results (in this case lack of results) that have happened with the Twins over the past few off-seasons:

 

Signing Nolasco, Signing Hunter, Signing and resigning Pelfrey, Extending Suzuki after 1 half, Extending Hughes after 1 good (albeit it great season), bullpen additions, etc don't exactly scream of the analytic department having a big say (or any real say) in a lot of those decisions. It just seems like more of the same decisions that had been going on for several years prior: Nick Blackburn extension comes to mind.

You're correct. Some of those probably didn't help.

[Jack Goin]

 

You should do another Q&A here, the first one seemed to go well and I know nearly everyone appreciated the insight/behind the curtain info.

Those seem to be lose lose situations for me.

[scottz]

 

Those seem to be lose lose situations for me.

Probably. But boy, I'd enjoy it. Please think of what I'd like.

[DaveW]

 

Those seem to be lose lose situations for me.

Fair enough, maybe I was misremembering how the first one went then.

One question I do have is:

 

What is morale right now with you/your team/the rest of the front office? Obviously losing your boss (whether it was the right decision or not) is a tough thing to go through, Ryan seemed like a good guy and very loyal to his employees.

 

Do you get the general perception that things will be ok for your team/the other folks on the same level?

[drivlikejehu]

Whether or not Jack is employed by the Twins doesn't address what concerns fans. If Antony and other leaders do not understand basic analytical concepts, how can they even have a productive discussion? There has never been so much as the slightest hint that those guys have delved at all into modern metrics. Not one comment that has ever hinted at it in the least bit.

 

 

[Jack Goin]

Fair enough, maybe I was misremembering how the first one went then.

One question I do have is:

 

What is morale right now with you/your team/the rest of the front office? Obviously losing your boss (whether it was the right decision or not) is a tough thing to go through, Ryan seemed like a good guy and very loyal to his employees.

 

Do you get the general perception that things will be ok for your team/the other folks on the same level?

For the most part those have gone fine. Unfortunately there is always one or two who ruin the entire thing.

[The Wise One]

 

Whether or not Jack is employed by the Twins doesn't address what concerns fans. If Antony and other leaders do not understand basic analytical concepts, how can they even have a productive discussion? There has never been so much as the slightest hint that those guys have delved at all into modern metrics. Not one comment that has ever hinted at it in the least bit.

Most organizations keep quiet about the specifics of their decision making process.  What evidence do you have that they don't use metrics in their analysis? That they don't talk about? That they don't list every staff person on the mlb.com website?  You threw mud.

[The Wise One]

 

In terms of Keith Law/national perception I think a lot of that has to do with the results (in this case lack of results) that have happened with the Twins over the past few off-seasons:

 

Signing Nolasco, Signing Hunter, Signing and resigning Pelfrey, Extending Suzuki after 1 half, Extending Hughes after 1 good (albeit it great season), bullpen additions, etc don't exactly scream of the analytic department having a big say (or any real say) in a lot of those decisions. It just seems like more of the same decisions that had been going on for several years prior: Nick Blackburn extension comes to mind.

Signing Hunter seemed to work last year. His departure is about the biggest change from last year.  Why are the Twins signing some of the pitchers they have? PTSD  Pavano's injury and implosion, inheriting Blackburn's contract, Cole DeVries, Sam Deduno,  PJ Walters, Esmerling Vasquez, Liriano imploding,  Scot Diamond, Pedro Hernandez,  Vance,  Alber's mirage of pitching 2 great games,  Johan Pino,  Nolasco, and Hughes had to seem and upgrade. Nolasco's injury and or implosions  could make it seem more imperative after that. Last year Nolaso's injury and Santana's suspension should have had Ryan on the suicide watch. After this year's round of injuries and regression no wonder Ryan said now rather than later.  

FWIW The stats guys at ESPN had Nolasco as the third best starting pitcher available when the Twins signed him,  Passan had him 6th best starter  so others thought he was as better than most.  The find a better pitcher mantra is cheap and lazy. Every team has bad guess on players, Ubaldo Jimmenez comes to mid as well as a few Uptons without the first name of Kate.

[Champuckett]

It is refreshing to see a bit of transparency by participating in a thread like this on a fan website by a Twins employee.  Takes a bit of cajones too, considering how the Twins have done in recent seasons.

 

I don't think well informed fans actually believe for a second that there is a complete lack of an analytics department/statisticians and analysts in the field within the franchise.  I think the concern is how much of that research and data has been used to effectively make key free agent acquisitions and trades during the season.

 

I think there is a general hope that with Terry Ryan leaving, being more of an old school guy with an emphasis on the scouting aspect of the game, rather than the math, is giving some fans hope that changes will indeed be made toward a more aggressive analytics approach.  I think that was part of the backlash against TR and I hope that the Twins do trend towards that direction.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't know. I wonder that myself. Maybe I have not done a good enough job of messaging. I'll take the blame for that.

I don't know if that's fair to you. I think opinions are formed by the actions of the team. Perhaps maybe the vocabulary used by the top guys as well? I appreciate that the team has you for sure.

 

Is there anything you can tell us about what you and the other full time people on staff are concentrating on? Or maybe their specialties or assignments?

 

Not looking for secrets, just vague generalities if snything.

[alarp33]

 

I don't know. I wonder that myself. Maybe I have not done a good enough job of messaging. I'll take the blame for that.

 

I don't know that it's your messaging, I would say it was TR and RA's messaging that is the issue.  

 

You could have a team of 10 working on analytics, but if the decision making constantly ignores the information you come up with, the perception is going to be there.  

 

I would point to the pitching staff for the past 6+ years as exhibit A, while the rest of baseball seems to have focused on K's, its almost like the Twins organization has gone out of their way to find the "pitch to contact" guys, while at the same time employing an awful defensive team.  It doesn't take a deep understanding of analytics to understand the less strikeouts, the more balls that are going to be hit into play.  

 

 

 

[mikelink45]

The problem is - we can only speculate because we have to watch Nolasco and Milone clog the system which means we leave our potential in the minors. 

[jimmer]

 

^{Signing Hunter seemed to work last year. His departure is about the biggest change from last year.}

 

 

Hunter was worth a whopping 0.5 WAR last year.  10.5M for 0.5 WAR.  I'm not sure that should be labeled as having worked.  When Ryan talked about signing Hunter the one thing he and Hunter mentioned was defensive metrics and how the metrics said Hunter was bad on defense.  Both of them tossed that notion out as rubbish.

 

Our losses this year has zero to do with losing Hunter.  We've already gotten more from Kepler. The biggest difference this year is not us losing a 1/2 WAR guy. It's that we didn't haven't one fantastic month like last year that hides how bad this team is combined with the sequencing being not so advantageous as it was last year.

 

Oh, and did you seriously bring up inheriting Blackburn's contract as if that was some sort of albatross?  Lot of excuses for Ryan in yourt post.  Any mistakes by Ryan you want to acknowledge that he wasn't supposedly forced to do out of desperation or someone else's incompetence?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I appreciate it. Thanks for being civil. That gets lost behind a keyboard sometimes.

 

Jack, just saying thanks for coming in and talking. I didn't take sides on KLAW's comments, I'm just posting Twins' comments from various sites so that people here can see them. We have no idea how decisions are made in Twins' land......and once a reputation exists, it takes a long time to change it. That's just how the world works. Hopefully the team is getting better every year at everything it does.

[Jack Goin]

 

 

Is there anything you can tell us about what you and the other full time people on staff are concentrating on? Or maybe their specialties or assignments?
Not looking for secrets, just vague generalities if snything.

Obviously a lot of our time right now is evaluating other legs systems and their strengths and weaknesses. That is a continual process but heightened the month of July. Analyzing players and groups of players. Next month we will start on our college player analysis for 2017 Draft. Working with our training staff and using Statcast data to understand injuries and workloads and when to rest players. That is just a few items.

[Jack Goin]

Jack, just saying thanks for coming in and talking. I didn't take sides on KLAW's comments, I'm just posting Twins' comments from various sites so that people here can see them. We have no idea how decisions are made in Twins' land......and once a reputation exists, it takes a long time to change it. That's just how the world works. Hopefully the team is getting better every year at everything it does.

You are correct. Unfortunately perception is reality. Like I said, I will take some blame for poor messaging.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Obviously a lot of our time right now is evaluating other legs systems and their strengths and weaknesses. That is a continual process but heightened the month of July. Analyzing players and groups of players. Next month we will start on our college player analysis for 2017 Draft. Working with our training staff and using Statcast data to understand injuries and workloads and when to rest players. That is just a few items.

 

Any little bit is interesting to hear, thank you!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't know. I wonder that myself. Maybe I have not done a good enough job of messaging. I'll take the blame for that.

Thanks for stopping by again, Mr. Goin.

 

I'm not sure messaging is really the problem behind this perception.

 

Whose idea was it to start the Twins analytics department? How was the head of this department chosen? How is the performance of this department evaluated internally (and who is doing the evaluation)? I think the answers to those questions determine the public perception of the Twins analytics department more than anything else.

 

And these issues apply not just to the analytics department, but the whole front office.  It's kind of fun when front office folks work their way up the ranks of one organization, but when a whole front office is comprised of folks like that, for such a long time, it raises questions about the hiring and evaluation processes.  You wouldn't expect a successful MLB team to be made up exclusively of draft picks who progressed through the system -- I'm not sure a successful MLB front office should be built any differently.