Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Mike Sixel]

 

Thanks for the info, Mike!

 

While I understand the skepticism, I have to ask how much FG's Cameron has seen of Buxton lately?  Yes, I'm talking about the godforsaken idea of the EyeBall Test.  Buxton is starting to make more contact.  And stats over the last 14 days [8 games, 29 PA's] also bears that out. 

 

He also spends a ton of time gathering data from scouts and FOs for this work.....it's not based only what he knows, but he makes the final decisions of what he writes. But like I said, he's always been skeptical of the "Buxton is going to be a super star" meme. He also had him in his honorable mention, meaning he's in the top 75 of all baseball still......it's not like he HATES HIM or something.....he's skeptical. 

 

I share his skepticism. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Ya, this is a bit of a necro thread.....hope to be better about keeping it updated now that it's back.

 

Well the Twins just need to give Fangraphs a reason to write about them more often.

 

Preferably for positive reasons.

[markos]

 

I would consider Giolito and maybe Gray. But the others? Not sure. Probably not. 

Yeah, I definitely wouldn't trade Buxton for all of them, though my list is a little more expansive than yours (I'd include Pederson, Reyes and maybe Story). Odor is the tough one for me. It is crazy that he already has over 1200 MLB PAs and he is actually younger than Buxton. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Yeah, I definitely wouldn't trade Buxton for all of them, though my list is a little more expansive than yours (I'd include Pederson, Reyes and maybe Story). Odor is the tough one for me. It is crazy that he already has over 1200 MLB PAs and he is actually younger than Buxton. 

 

After watching last night's game, Odor might have gone and Knoblauch'd himself up already.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah, I definitely wouldn't trade Buxton for all of them, though my list is a little more expansive than yours (I'd include Pederson, Reyes and maybe Story). Odor is the tough one for me. It is crazy that he already has over 1200 MLB PAs and he is actually younger than Buxton. 

 

I'd probably do pedersen also......it's not as cut and dried as some would have you believe......it's very hard to predict the future.

[Vanimal46]

I'm surprised no one included Perez on their list. He'd be the top target for me in this hypothetical scenario on who we'd trade Buxton for.... Any of the starting pitchers would also work for me - I'd probably rank them Gray - Reyes - Giolito - Martinez - Teheran.  

[bluechipper]

I'm surprised no one included Perez on their list. He'd be the top target for me in this hypothetical scenario on who we'd trade Buxton for.... Any of the starting pitchers would also work for me - I'd probably rank them Gray - Reyes - Giolito - Martinez - Teheran.

 

Perez has a lot of mileage on his legs even though he's still pretty young.

[Vanimal46]

 

Perez has a lot of mileage on his legs even though he's still pretty young.

That is true. He's played in 90% of the Royals games this year and the previous 2 seasons prior to this. Still, with the lack of good defensive catchers that can also hit, I'd take him in a heart beat.   

[jimmer]

 

I'm surprised no one included Perez on their list. He'd be the top target for me in this hypothetical scenario on who we'd trade Buxton for.... Any of the starting pitchers would also work for me - I'd probably rank them Gray - Reyes - Giolito - Martinez - Teheran.  

Of that list, I'd have Giolito easily at #1.  And I doubt the Nats even consider the trade.  I think he'll be an absolute beast.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Of that list, I'd have Giolito easily at #1.  And I doubt the Nats even consider the trade.  I think he'll be an absolute beast.

 

What about Buxton, ESan, and Abad....and some prospect around 5-10 best in MN for

 

Giolito and Turner?

 

The Nats lose Harper at some point.....and the Mets are all getting hurt......

 

I still think they laugh...but they have Ben Revere in CF right now, and need another SP and another RP......

[Vanimal46]

 

Of that list, I'd have Giolito easily at #1.  And I doubt the Nats even consider the trade.  I think he'll be an absolute beast.

You could convince me to move him to #1 on my list too. Quite frankly I've never seen Giolito or Reyes throw 1 pitch, so I'm basing my list off of the hype on fangraphs. 

[markos]

 

That is true. He's played in 90% of the Royals games this year and the previous 2 seasons prior to this. Still, with the lack of good defensive catchers that can also hit, I'd take him in a heart beat.   

I would have included Perez if I thought the Twins were going to be serious competitors in 2017-2018. Right now I think their window has shifted to 2018+, at which point Buxton will probably eclipse Perez in value.

[markos]

 

What about Buxton, ESan, and Abad....and some prospect around 5-10 best in MN for

 

Giolito and Turner?

 

The Nats lose Harper at some point.....and the Mets are all getting hurt......

 

I still think they laugh...but they have Ben Revere in CF right now, and need another SP and another RP......

If the Nats are willing to deal Giolito and Turner, I'm guessing they would be fishing for someone who is already a star. Would that start the conversation for Trout? 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

I can agree with that assessment of Palka vs. ABW. Palka appears to have a better skill-set than ABW that should translate to the majors. 

Soooooo, perfect platoon option? Wait, we don't think that way.

[Major League Ready]

 

Soooooo, perfect platoon option? Wait, we don't think that way.

What becomes of Rosario in that scenario?

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

What becomes of Rosario in that scenario?

Emergency walk artist.

[Mike Sixel]

From the article on adjustments that made the all stars....

 

Eduardo Nunez, shortstop, Twins: “You have to pull sometimes. Normally, I want to go to right field, but you have to make adjustments. I work with Robinson Cano, [Edwin] Encarnacion, [Albert] Pujols, [Marcell] Ozuna, Jean Segura, we practice together. I’ve been working them for the last four years. They always tell me, you need a chance to play and prove what you can do. It’s tough when you have one game every week, you maybe hit 1-for-2, 2-for-4, but then you don’t play the next 10 days, how are you going to keep your timing on time?”

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-adjustments-that-made-the-all-stars/

 

[Mike Sixel]

Ok, this first one hurts.......from today's chat:

 

Josh
12:27 Byron Buxton breaks out in : A) the second half B ) 2017 or 2018 C) Never

 

august fagerstrom

12:27 Should probably look for any signs of life before a breakout

 

Schland
12:46 Who will win AL rookie of the year and why is it Max Kepler?

 

august fagerstrom
12:47 right now it's between Fulmer and Naquin
Mazara in the mix, too
Possibly even the favorite to take it in the second half
Not that Kepler doesnt have a chance, but he wouldnt be my pick at this juncture

[Mike Sixel]

From today's trade list, number 32 in all of baseball:

 

One guy you don’t need to project power development for? Miguel Sano. The Twins’ young slugger was miscast as an outfielder because of the team’s logjam at 1B/DH, but there are few young hitters in the game around whom teams would like to build their lineups before Sano. With top-shelf power and the willingness to take a walk, Sano looks like the heir apparent to Chris Davis’ three-true-outcomes throne. The strikeouts and the lack of defensive value might make him a less valuable player than some players with better all-around skills, but Sano’s power is unquestioned, and teams still pay a premium for sluggers who can hit the ball a long way. And Sano can unquestionably do that.

[bluechipper]

 

Ok, this first one hurts.......from today's chat:

 

Josh
12:27 Byron Buxton breaks out in : A) the second half B ) 2017 or 2018 C) Never

 

august fagerstrom

12:27 Should probably look for any signs of life before a breakout

 

Schland
12:46 Who will win AL rookie of the year and why is it Max Kepler?

 

august fagerstrom
12:47 right now it's between Fulmer and Naquin
Mazara in the mix, too
Possibly even the favorite to take it in the second half
Not that Kepler doesnt have a chance, but he wouldnt be my pick at this juncture

On Buxton: Last 7 games: .348/.400/.609 (1.009). Sure it's a tiny sample, but it's something.

 

On the ROY, I can definitely support Naquin, as he's been great, and so has Fulmer, but Kepler has been a little better than Mazara, but the lack of overall ABs will probably hurt Max.

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW released his top 50 prospects list today....

 

Berrios is 24th....and KLAW, not surprisingly, does not understand why he's not in MN right now.

 

He has Kohl Stewart and Tyler Jay in his honorable mentions.....gotta like the SP prospects in the minors right now.

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW on today:

 

on Gonsalves:

Not high end. Good changeup but lefty without a breaking ball and with average-ish command? I see backend {starter}.

 

on Buxton:

 

Two thoughts. One, be patient. People want to write off any prospect who doesn't succeed right away. Two. I think Molitor and company are the wrong staff for this job, and their trouble with Buxton would be example A. They were on him to be more aggressive early in the season, and look where that got him.

 

on Sano:

I think Sano is a 1b/dh and unfortunately they've blocked him there. But yes, Kepler and Buxton should be playing every day.

[Vanimal46]

Well, it's nice to hear an objective un-biased opinion about Gonsalves. The hype train is moving full steam ahead on this site. 

I'm leaning more towards Molitor not being the right guy to manage this team on a daily basis. 

[Mike Sixel]

I imagine I'll have lots of links the next couple days:

 

 mtsw

12:42 The Twins apparently just canned Terry Ryan. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski
12:42 It's about time. he did a lot of good in Minnesota, but I th ink the game passed that front office by.

 

Jerry Crasnick
ESPN Senior Writer

The Twins have been a disaster this year with a 33-58 record, second worst in the majors. But Terry Ryan was so closely linked to that organization and is such a respected figure in baseball circles, it was nevertheless stunning to see him relieved of his duties today. Ryan embodies the old-school scouting mentality, and you wonder if the change signifies a big shift in the organizational direction

[HitInAPinch]

 

I imagine I'll have lots of links the next couple days:

 

 mtsw

12:42 The Twins apparently just canned Terry Ryan. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski
12:42 It's about time. he did a lot of good in Minnesota, but I th ink the game passed that front office by.

 

Jerry Crasnick
ESPN Senior Writer

The Twins have been a disaster this year with a 33-58 record, second worst in the majors. But Terry Ryan was so closely linked to that organization and is such a respected figure in baseball circles, it was nevertheless stunning to see him relieved of his duties today. Ryan embodies the old-school scouting mentality, and you wonder if the change signifies a big shift in the organizational direction

OMG, I thought you were joking!!!

 

Kinda sad to see.  Right call, but who's the "right" guy? 

Interim basis: assistant GM Rob Antony

 

http://www.startribune.com/terry-ryan-relieved-of-duties-as-twins-gm/387293961/

[markos]

Cameron at Fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/twins-fire-terry-ryan/

 

 

That said, this should be a fairly attractive job for a younger candidate looking to make their mark in the game. Buxton isn’t a complete bust just yet, and with Sano around, there are a couple of potential cornerstone pieces in place, if the new regime can figure out how to maximize their abilities. The team also isn’t as bad as their record makes them look — their BaseRuns record is 40-51, still not great, but less disastrous — and could be in line for some improvement even without a lot of tinkering. Toss in a division that doesn’t have a traditional behemoth, and the Twins path back to contention could be shorter than some of the other jobs that have opened up lately.

 

[dxpavelka]

 

I think we'll see a lot of the same pitching approach with Berrios that we see with Trevor May. Finally we will see some Twins pitchers who utilize the high fastball to get swings and misses.

But the real question, that even Fangraphs can't answer is will we continue to waste May in the pen.

[Mike Sixel]

jon
2:47 Are you higher on Soler or Kepler? I feel like Soler is a change-of-scenery away from realizing some success.

 

Eric A Longenhagen (Fangraphs prospect guy, formerly of ESPN):
2:47 Soler's tools are more explosive but I'm more confident in Kepler's ability to hit.

[jimmer]

On today's Fangraphs chat with Dan S (The ZiPS guy)

 

Q: Former OF Jordan Schaefer is trying to become a pitcher in the Dodgers' organization

 

A: Already hits like one, so he's half there.

 

Cracked me up!

[bluechipper]

 

On today's Fangraphs chat with Dan S (The ZiPS guy)

 

Q: Former OF Jordan Schaefer is trying to become a pitcher in the Dodgers' organization

 

A: Already hits like one, so he's half there.

 

Cracked me up!

He's got a 3.75 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and only 2.2 BB/9 between AA/AAA this year. It'd be a pretty cool story if he makes it to the MLB as a reliever/pinch runner.