Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[jimmer]

 

He's got a 3.75 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and only 2.2 BB/9 between AA/AAA this year. It'd be a pretty cool story if he makes it to the MLB as a reliever/pinch runner.

Couldn't agree more, but that answer was hilarious.

[Mike Sixel]

Mike is Stow
12:52 Miguel Sano, will he live up to expectations or turn into Chris Carter?

 

august fagerstrom
12:52 He's already way better than Chris Carter's ever been
The "live up to expectations" thing is always tough, because fans consistently have totally unrealistic expectations

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

He's got a 3.75 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and only 2.2 BB/9 between AA/AAA this year. It'd be a pretty cool story if he makes it to the MLB as a reliever/pinch runner.

That is insane. With Shafer doing this and Matt Bush already reinventing himself you wonder if you will see more of this at this level instead of it being just a low minors thing. I know Hicks was always talked about as a guy who might be able to pitch.

[bluechipper]

 

Mike is Stow
12:52 Miguel Sano, will he live up to expectations or turn into Chris Carter?

 

august fagerstrom
12:52 He's already way better than Chris Carter's ever been
The "live up to expectations" thing is always tough, because fans consistently have totally unrealistic expectations

Well I'm expecting a couple 50 HR seasons, and I don't think that's totally unrealistic. I think Sano's been fine this year after his slow start, especially considering he was trying to play in the outfield.

[rghrbek]

 

That is insane. With Shafer doing this and Matt Bush already reinventing himself you wonder if you will see more of this at this level instead of it being just a low minors thing. I know Hicks was always talked about as a guy who might be able to pitch.

 

Aaron Hicks and Drew Butera come to mind as a couple of guys who should think about it...

[Mike Sixel]

Paul Swydan: Of Kepler and Sanchez, I’d feel safer with Sanchez. The Twins just have no clue what they’re doing, and the fact that they didn’t immediately clean house paired with the owner saying Paul Molitor will *definitely* be the manager next year doesn’t exactly have me brimming with confidence about their future.

 

Travis: What’s your best guess on how Miguel Sano’s bat develops? He’s been good this year, but hasn’t really locked in.

 

9:55
Paul Swydan: Honestly, the Twins have managed him doesn’t give me much confidence in him until/unless they clean house.

Paul Swydan: the way the Twins have managed him, is what I meant to say

[jimmer]

 

Paul Swydan: Of Kepler and Sanchez, I’d feel safer with Sanchez. The Twins just have no clue what they’re doing, and the fact that they didn’t immediately clean house paired with the owner saying Paul Molitor will *definitely* be the manager next year doesn’t exactly have me brimming with confidence about their future.

Sanchez?

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sanchez?

 

it was a fantasy question, that I left off.....

[Mike Sixel]

From their recent hitter contact article:

 

While Robbie Grossman is the most productive of our AL add-ons, he doesn’t project as the one with the brightest future, over the near, intermediate or long term. His walk rate is exceptional, and serves as the foundation of a high-floor package that should see him stick around as at least a complementary contributor. He was also pop up-free as of July 4: a huge plus, especially for someone with such a high fly-ball rate. About that fly-ball rate… it’s maxed out, puffing up his current power numbers a bit. His liner rate is also due for some negative regression. An even bigger driver of his current numbers is good fortune on both fly balls (139 Unadjusted vs. 90 Adjusted Contact Score) and liners (107 vs. 88).

 

 

Byron Buxton sure hasn’t looked like an elite prospect in his multiple cracks at the big leagues. First and most importantly, it’s almost impossible to overcome a K rate of nearly 40%, especially when coupled with such a minuscule BB rate. His numbers could actually be worse: his liner rate is elevated, and begging for regression, and he’s overproduced on both liners (134 Unadjusted vs. 99 Adjusted Contact Score) and grounders (163 vs. 120). His pop-up rate is also near the top of the scale. The tools are there, but Buxton would seem to be well served by another stint in Triple-A.

[markos]

Dave Cameron guessing on trades at the deadline. Two Twins were mentioned: Ervin Santana to the Red Sox and Nolasco to the Orioles.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/predicting-the-trade-deadline-moves/

[Vanimal46]

I think every single one of those pitchers mentioned in the column would need to be traded in order for anyone to consider taking on Nolasco. 

[Mike Sixel]

From KLAW chat today:

 

Nathan: What else will the new Twins’ GM need to do to right the ship? As a fan, I’m frustrated with the talent failing to develop and I’m wondering where the issue lies and what needs to be done to fix it. But getting a new GM is at least a start if they can hire the right one for the job and not Ryan 2.0

Klaw: They need to build an internal analytics department, first and foremost. You can’t operate in MLB right now unless you have that, if only for competitive intelligence purposes. I also have real questions about the MLB coaching staff, and the owner’s statement that Molitor is the manager next year would really concern me if I were a Twins fan. It’s a great job for someone – good market, great city, fantastic stadium, solid farm system, strong amateur scouting dept – but not if it comes with shackles

 

Ralph: From this year’s draft, who do you see having bigger upside, Josh Lowe or Alex Kiriloff?

Klaw: Kiriloff, although I understand why some people would argue Lowe

[Mike Sixel]

Drew: If the Twins called you tomorrow and offered you the GM job would the idea that Molitor can’t be fired be a road block? If you took the job would you trade Joe Mauer for just about anything? One of my favorite Twins but he’s not going to be on the next playoff team and I’d rather see Sano/Park/Vargas/whoever play 1B/DH. If there are no takers, would you cut him loose?

 

 

Klaw: Speaking strictly hypothetically – I don’t expect this call and don’t want anyone to think I’m campaigning for any job here – I would say yes, it’s a roadblock, and would want that on the table for discussion. I’d be willing to sit down and make the case for a managerial change, not just that I want to hire my own guy for its own sake. As for Mauer, I think he’d be close to untradeable, I doubt he or ownership would be amenable to a trade, and I don’t know enough about his health to guess what kind of player he’ll be going forward

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I also have real questions about the MLB coaching staff, and the owner’s statement that Molitor is the manager next year would really concern me if I were a Twins fan. It’s a great job for someone – good market, great city, fantastic stadium, solid farm system, strong amateur scouting dept – but not if it comes with shackles

Yep and yep. The Twins job is attractive but any strings attached could alienate the best candidates.

 

Though I'm unconvinced Pohlad actually meant what he said about Molitor. It might be grandstanding to reassure players they're not under a lame duck.

 

But Molitor is also friends with the Pohlads. It could go either way.

[Mike Sixel]

From KLAW chat:

 

JG: In your humble opinion, who’s the best person (keeping Kim Ng in mind) that the Twins could bring in as the GM?


Klaw: Aaron Gleeman mentioned Jason McLeod on Twitter yesterday, and I seconded it. He’s got a good track record of success and has worked in several analytically-minded organizations, so he should be able to come in and help build that department. (I view that as the single most important criterion for the Twins in hiring a new GM. If you can’t build that capability, you can’t be the GM

 

Jacob: Jose Berrios continues to dominate in AAA. Have you heard any reports of him refining his stuff to allow him more success in the majors?

 

Klaw: No, sounds like the same guy, too good for AAA, needs to pitch in the majors even if it means struggling now. Gotta learn to get those guys out at some point

 

Cal: Does Nick Gordon still profile as an everyday SS?

Klaw: Yes, I think he does. Probably a solid-average regular or a little better

[nicksaviking]

Dave Cameron guessing on trades at the deadline. Two Twins were mentioned: Ervin Santana to the Red Sox and Nolasco to the Orioles.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/predicting-the-trade-deadline-moves/

Hahaha, trying to imagine this circa 2006 with the Twins as the Orioles in this scenario and the White Sox as the Red Sox. We'd burn this place to the ground!

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

 

 

Jacob: Jose Berrios continues to dominate in AAA. Have you heard any reports of him refining his stuff to allow him more success in the majors?

 

Klaw: No, sounds like the same guy, too good for AAA, needs to pitch in the majors even if it means struggling now. Gotta learn to get those guys out at some point

------------------------------

 

After tonights start, Berrios had better be in a Twins uniform for his next one. I think Duffey should be sent down in favor of Berrios. Then, wait to see if Santana and/or Nolasco get dealt and bring Duffey back up. But, Berrios needs to be in the bigs now. Like KLaw stated, he should be up even if he struggles, in order to work through that. I get that Nolasco need to start until they are traded or we can't find someone to take Nolasco, but if we can't find someone, he needs to be moved aside for Berrios at least.

 

May should be in AAA working as a starter, even if he is not going to be one in the bigs. He needs more AAA innings through starting to work through whatever is ailing him. If we find that he's looking great as a starter, then keep him there, but I think starting will help him work through things and get a better feel IMO.

 

 

 

 

[jokin]

 

From KLAW chat today:

 

Klaw: They need to build an internal analytics department, first and foremost. You can’t operate in MLB right now unless you have that, if only for competitive intelligence purposes. I also have real questions about the MLB coaching staff,

 

Are we all just skimming and glossing right over these 2 major indictments of the current Twins' situation??

[AlwaysinModeration]

I'd endorse KLaw for the GM position.

[markos]

Chris Mitchell released an updated version of his KATOH prospect projection system, and posted new top-100 lists based on his projections.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-improved-katoh-top-100-list/

 

Lots of Twins made the lists (he released two different flavors), including the usual Berrios, Polanco, Gonsalves and Gordon. Palka made the list, and two unheralded names:

Zach Granite

Luis Arraez

 

Granite ended up with a crazy ranking of #17 overall. He has certainly been under my radar. I just noticed that he has been very solid in AA, and actually has more walks than strikeouts (always a good sign!). If he is a legitimately good centerfielder, he could easily carve out a good career as a 4th-outfielder. And if he generates a little more pop, he could be a decent starter. Still, it seems a little steep to have him ranked at #17. His model must value floor over upside.

 

Arraez has been crushing it, and, like Granite, has been avoiding strikeouts pretty well. Also, his model is now including the minor-league defensive metrics from Clay Davenport, and his numbers indicate that Arraez has been excellent at 2B. 

[Mike Sixel]

KATOH is fun.....but has many restrictions on its usefulness, imo. Still, anyone should be intrigued by Granite. All he does is get on base, over and over, and then steal base, over and over.

[Mike Sixel]

From the last BA Hot Sheet:

 

The Scoop: Gonsalves isn’t overpowering, but his low-90s fastball plays up thanks to deception. He needs to mix in his slider and cutter more, but his changeup is solid thanks to good arm action.

 

(VLC)
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-july-22/#GkvDjuIbP6RRO5HK.99

[BK432]

 

Are we all just skimming and glossing right over these 2 major indictments of the current Twins' situation??

 

I'm not, and I doubt anyone else is. I just don't know what to say. I mean, it's shocking to some extent in 2016 that a complete lack of of an internal analytics department in a MLB front office would be truth, but given everything we know about the Twins, it's also not shocking at all.

 

It's just sad that we're this far behind the vast majority of other organizations. The next GM has a lot of work to do.

[big dog]

 

I'm not, and I doubt anyone else is. I just don't know what to say. I mean, it's shocking to some extent in 2016 that a complete lack of of an internal analytics department in a MLB front office would be truth, but given everything we know about the Twins, it's also not shocking at all.

 

It's just sad that we're this far behind the vast majority of other organizations. The next GM has a lot of work to do.

 

I'm not, and I doubt anyone else is. I just don't know what to say. I mean, it's shocking to some extent in 2016 that a complete lack of of an internal analytics department in a MLB front office would be truth, but given everything we know about the Twins, it's also not shocking at all.

 

It's just sad that we're this far behind the vast majority of other organizations. The next GM has a lot of work to do.

How does this compare to what Jack Goin does?  And is there a specific definition for "internal analytics" that is understood by everyone?  I haven't heard the term before as part of a baseball front office, though maybe most teams have one, I have no idea.

[Mike Sixel]

Trainman 12:48 Kennys Vargas has been solid since he's been called up. Is he a long term piece there, or do you think park is the twins long term answer

 

 

Dan Szymborski 12:48 Not a long term piece.

[Mike Sixel]

This was actually asked and answered:

 

Trainman
12:50 Can the twins realistically trade joe Mauer?

 

Dan Szymborski
12:50 Not really.

[Mike Sixel]

Conner

3:35 Where have you stood on Byron Buxton throughout the last few years? Is this utter lack of production just a result of adjusting to the big leagues or something more?

 

 

Eric A Longenhagen

3:36 Breaking ball recognition has always been poor. Specifically with sliders. When he fails to identify them and tries to pull a pitch that ends up on the outer half, his plate coverage disappears.

3:37 I think it's just a case where Buxton is so physically gifted that he hasn't had to make any adjustments until the big league level. I still think he's going to be a really good big leaguer, just that it's going to take some time.

3:38 Remember, this was a kid pre-draft who the industry was worried was raw. And he had nothing but success until he got to Minnesota.

[Jack Goin]

 

I'm not, and I doubt anyone else is. I just don't know what to say. I mean, it's shocking to some extent in 2016 that a complete lack of of an internal analytics department in a MLB front office would be truth, but given everything we know about the Twins, it's also not shocking at all.

 

It's just sad that we're this far behind the vast majority of other organizations. The next GM has a lot of work to do.

This notion we don't have an analytics department has gotten out of control. By my calculations the average analytics department is roughly five people. That number can be difficult to nail down because of titles and not sure who does what inside a front office. That includes the Marlins at 1 and the Yankees and Dodgers at 11 or 12. We have approximately a 5 person department including two full-time developers. I'm not looking to get into some type of argument here, but we have a department. I'm not sure what else to say on this matter.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The problem is the Twins analytics department seems to have minimal influence on roster construction or on what happens on the field night after night. From here in the cheap seats, it looks like a mess.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

From the last BA Hot Sheet:

 

The Scoop: Gonsalves isn’t overpowering, but his low-90s fastball plays up thanks to deception. He needs to mix in his slider and cutter more, but his changeup is solid thanks to good arm action.

 

(VLC)
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/prospect-hot-sheet-july-22/#GkvDjuIbP6RRO5HK.99

Sadly, this sounds way too familiar to the typical Twins prospect. Hoping that he becomes more than that, but he scares me as a guy who's stuff plays up less in the bigs. So want to be wrong though.