Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 This didn't stop a lot of people from absolutely savaging Ryan retrospectively about this decision. Goes to show us that, analytics or no, a decision that isn't half-bad can produce awful results. Then we often find a scapegoat upon whom to place 100% of the blame for the results while cutting zero slack regarding the quality of the decision. It's refreshing to hear Jack accept some blame for the imperfect part of the Nolasco decision. Learned that bit of humility somewhere. Maybe Ryan?

Outside the most extreme internet commenters, I don't think this is an accurate description of opinions around here.  TR isn't getting savaged just for the Nolasco decision alone -- TR generally gets savaged for the totality of a bunch of decisions, including Nolasco, the Hughes extension, the handling of Trevor May, etc.  Decisions that have left us with many losing seasons, including a particularly bad 2016, with few decent assets to trade either.

 

The other trap that we can fall into is, of course all of TR's decisions have some justification, even Nolasco.  That doesn't absolve TR of responsibility.  If the standard for judging a GM's moves was only "does the move have justification", almost anyone could be a GM.  I hope we are holding MLB GM's to a higher standard.

[bird]

 

Why would it surprise you that 100% of the blame for terrible results for the past 6 years is being placed on the person in charge of building the baseball team? 

 

 

It's not terribly surprising, alarp33, but to be generous, it's myopic, simplistic, and small. Like most complex billion-dollar businesses, there are a ton of very complex variables that come into play. Other people, and uncontrollable factors are ignored and the pitch forks come out. I have a poor opinion of anyone who unfairly demonizes a person like a small handful of people have done to Ryan. He did some good things and is not 100% responsible for either the terrible results or all of the better decisions for that matter.

[jimmer]

TR absolutely did some great things for the organization and I enjoyed pointing those out way more than pointing out his mistakes.  For example, I've always defended the Span trade even though I really like Span.  The thought process behind that trade was sound, it just didn't work out.  The wrong pitcher was chosen, but the thinking behind it was good.  Trade from a supposed strength for a weakness.

[bird]

Over the past two years, a lot of people have absolutely savaged Ryan for Nolasco's results without conceding in even the most subtle fashion that the decision itself might have been an excusable one.

 

I have not objected to anyone's opinion about their view on the quality of any of Ryan's decisions, although I often disagree or think the criticism is overly harsh.

 

I object to the trashing of Ryan, or anyone else, on the basis of results when the quality of the decision is ignored. You can make a bad decision and get acceptable results, and vice versa.

 

But the thing you can count on from me, in terms of pushback on criticism, is unfairness. And I recognize that I can be wrong about what's fair criticism and what's not, and welcome that debate, even when it creates some good tension in the thread between respectful participants.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I object to the trashing of Ryan, or anyone else, on the basis of results when the quality of the decision is ignored. You can make a bad decision and get acceptable results, and vice versa.

That's fine, but I'd save it for responses to the posts and posters that actually trash Ryan.  This thread was offering tons of reasoned and nuanced opinions on the Nolasco signing, and it just feels like dragging it down to start bashing unnamed TR haters...

[alarp33]

 

It's not terribly surprising, alarp33, but to be generous, it's myopic, simplistic, and small. Like most complex billion-dollar businesses, there are a ton of very complex variables that come into play. Other people, and uncontrollable factors are ignored and the pitch forks come out. I have a poor opinion of anyone who unfairly demonizes a person like a small handful of people have done to Ryan. He did some good things and is not 100% responsible for either the terrible results or all of the better decisions for that matter.

 

Maybe a tad bit overly dramatic.  People have demonized Ryan, or they just didn't think he did a very good job?  

 

If he didn't want to be held responsible for what happened with the Twins, I'm guessing he wouldn't have taken the GM job.  At the end of the day the person in charge is the one held accountable for results.  

 

Plenty of people had input in the Nolasco signing, as Jack admitted to.  Terry Ryan is still the one who signs off on anything that happens

 

 

[bird]

 

Outside the most extreme internet commenters, I don't think this is an accurate description of opinions around here.  TR isn't getting savaged just for the Nolasco decision alone -- TR generally gets savaged for the totality of a bunch of decisions, including Nolasco, the Hughes extension, the handling of Trevor May, etc.  Decisions that have left us with many losing seasons, including a particularly bad 2016, with few decent assets to trade either.

 

The other trap that we can fall into is, of course all of TR's decisions have some justification, even Nolasco.  That doesn't absolve TR of responsibility.  If the standard for judging a GM's moves was only "does the move have justification", almost anyone could be a GM.  I hope we are holding MLB GM's to a higher standard.

 

 

I didn't intend to open Pandora's Box for a re-hash on TR.

 

Justification is an irrelevant concept when one assesses the quality of a manager's decision-making. Let's not confuse that with reasonableness, which would examine things like logic, assumptions, probability, analysis, due diligence, and the like.

 

You know, there are a lot of us at TD who applaud one decision and fault the next. Generally, we tend to fit into a more critical camp or a more tolerant camp as it relates to players, or managers, or FO. We tend to get along fine, even as we argue that our pal is being too harsh or too forgiving. It's okay if a person thinks it was unreasonable to sign Nolasco as long as they state their reasons rather than simplistically pointing to his record or making some tiresome and boring rant about roster construction and accountability.

 

 

So yes, I agree that it would not be accurate to describe most commenters around here as people who would unfairly savage the GM strictly on the basis of results with no regard for what went into the decision process, but there are a lot of commenters who savaged Ryan regarding Nolasco strictly on the basis of his results.

[bird]

 

That's fine, but I'd save it for responses to the posts and posters that actually trash Ryan.  This thread was offering tons of reasoned and nuanced opinions on the Nolasco signing, and it just feels like dragging it down to start bashing unnamed TR haters...

  Fair criticism, spycake. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Justification is an irrelevant concept when one assesses the quality of a manager's decision-making.

Let's not confuse that with reasonableness, which would examine things like logic, assumptions, probability, analysis, due diligence, and the like.

The thing is, all of that goes into every GM decision.  If TR committed $49 million to Nolasco unreasonably, that would be grounds for immediate termination.

 

So when discussing a GM and his moves, it's not really a useful standard to fall back on reasonableness.

 

Comments can sound brutal at times, but I wouldn't let it bug you too much.  It's primarily just an unfortunate shorthand that some folks have acquired to discuss such topics on the internet.  Generally no matter the words used (short of violating guidelines, of course), I just try to fit the opinion into the same spectrum of judging the GM's moves.  And this board does an excellent job of not letting those words drive the conversation, which is why I am wary of spending too much time being critical of them!

[bird]

 

Maybe a tad bit overly dramatic.  People have demonized Ryan, or they just didn't think he did a very good job?  

 

If he didn't want to be held responsible for what happened with the Twins, I'm guessing he wouldn't have taken the GM job.  At the end of the day the person in charge is the one held accountable for results.  

 

Plenty of people had input in the Nolasco signing, as Jack admitted to.  Terry Ryan is still the one who signs off on anything that happens

 

 

I have no issue whatsoever with a point of view critical of the quality of any decision the GM signs off on. He's 100% responsible. I was trying to comment on the disconnect between a decision and a result. People constantly point to results around here and unfairly attribute 100% of the blame. And yes, we like to blame someone. Arcia sucks, so lets blame (name here). If lots of poor decisions get made, yeah, then the pitch forks come out and we see some pretty unfair stuff in these threads. I think it's accurate to say Ryan has been demonized a bit around these parts over time. I appreciate the balanced views that I see.

[jimmer]

Anything new about the Twins being talked about at Fangraphs or anywhere else (hopefully pending trade news?)?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  Fair criticism, spycake. 

No prob.  I've certainly done worse myself!  Heck, the only reason I noticed it is because I know you're among the quality posters of content around here, otherwise I probably wouldn't have even responded.

 

This thread is actually pretty good.  If it's not a fully accurate portrayal of a standard TD thread, at the very least, we cleaned up our act for Mr. Goin quite nicely.

[bird]

 

The thing is, all of that goes into every GM decision.  If TR committed $49 million to Nolasco unreasonably, that would be grounds for immediate termination.

 

So when discussing a GM and his moves, it's not really a useful standard to fall back on reasonableness.

 

Comments can sound brutal at times, but I wouldn't let it bug you too much.  It's primarily just an unfortunate shorthand that some folks have acquired to discuss such topics on the internet.  Generally no matter the words used (short of violating guidelines, of course), I just try to fit the opinion into the same spectrum of judging the GM's moves.  And this board does an excellent job of not letting those words drive the conversation, which is why I am wary of spending too much time being critical of them!

 

 

I appreciate your comments. I know I take some of the comments here too literally, and I know I have had a lifelong irrational distaste for injustice. But dammit, spycake, this is important! This is the Twins!

[jimmer]

Somewhere around here there's a track.  Just got to find it and get back on it. :-)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I appreciate your comments. I know I take some of the comments here too literally, and I know I have had a lifelong irrational distaste for injustice. But dammit, spycake, this is important! This is the Twins!

I just thank my lucky stars and stripes I'm a fan of baseball rather than politics!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Anything new about the Twins being talked about at Fangraphs or anywhere else (hopefully pending trade news?)?

Sadly, probably no.  I feel like the Twins will not be a common trade topic until we're right up against the deadline...

[jimmer]

 

Sadly, probably no.  I feel like the Twins will not be a common trade topic until we're right up against the deadline...

if then...

[Mike Sixel]

 

Anything new about the Twins being talked about at Fangraphs or anywhere else (hopefully pending trade news?)?

 

Not that I saw today, other than the stuff on MLBTraderumors.

[Mike Sixel]

From the mlbtraderumors chat:

 

Ryan
3:31 Yesterday, Rob Antony said he didn't want to trade Ervin Santana because that would mean he had to go back into free agency to sign a replacement. This is crazy, right?

 

Steve Adams
3:33 I didn't necessarily interpret it that way. He said he didn't want to shop Ervin because he felt that there isn't a comparable pitcher out there that would settle for 2/28 with a club option on the open market. I think that's a fair assessment of Ervin's contract, and I think it speaks to the fact that even though he's well compensated there's a bit of surplus value there.

Antony's comment of "then we might need another veteran" doesn't indicate he'd have to sign someone -- just bring someone in from outside the org. Given the youth and injuries throughout their rotation, I'd be inclined to say he's right there as well.

 

Steph
3:44 Clayton Blackburn for Fernando Abad?

Steve Adams

3:45 If the Twins are convinced that this season's 5.00+ ERA is a product of PCL shenanigans and some poor luck, then yeah they'd probably be happy to take that for a guy who signed a MInor League deal.

 

German guy
4:06 Any chance max Kepler gets traded to a winning Team?

Steve Adams
4:06 Twins control him for another five years after this season -- two at the league minimum (or close to it). No real reason for them to do so.

 

Cody
4:18 Could the Twins get anything decent for Trevor Plouffe?

Steve Adams
4:19 Not right now. He's an August trade candidate but even then he won't bring back too much. I still don't understand why they stubbornly insisted on keeping him when there was no real reason to do so this winter from a roster construction standpoint. Moving Sano to the OF looked like a mistake from day one, and the fact that he's now struggling enormously at third base isn't a huge surprise. Should've left him at third base from the get go and hoped he developed into average (or slightly below) rather than messing with it.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Today we have an interview with Gibson:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kyle-gibson-on-his-best-outing-of-the-season/

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

From klawchat today....

 

Molitor is out of touch writing a line up and his love of bunting and playing gritty, hard nose players that aren't any good(D. Santana). Last night down by 2 with 2 on in the 8th and no outs, he has their hottest hitter this year (Nunez) bunt and it didn't turn out(surprise, surprise). The Pohlads scared off all potential GM candidates by saying Molitor is the manager in 2017. Why did they do that? I don't think he will work with the young ones. Will you please take the job, Keith? They need a complete house cleaning, don't you think? Thanks!!!

 

Klaw.....

I don't understand why owners do this with their managers. The GM should have full autonomy to hire the manager he thinks is right for the job - and in Molitor's case and in Counsell's case in Milwaukee the evidence we have before us said that those guys were NOT right for the job. If I were GM there, I'd hire a manager who has actually managed somewhere before in pro ball. Novel concept, I know, but I'm way out the box like that.

[Mike Sixel]

at least two more coming soon, including his thought on Gibson vs Miller......

 

I also asked Eno Sarris.....he answered differently....

[Mike Sixel]

From Eno's chat today:

 

mike sixel
1:35 In real life.....Kyle Gibson or Shelby Miller for the remainder of their deals?

Eno Sarris
1:35 Kyle Gibson has been improving his swinging strike and strikeout stuff, shhh nobody noticing.

[Mike Sixel]

From klawchat....I asked...

Would you rather have Kyle Gibson or Shelby Miller going forward?

Klaw...
Miller. I'd absolutely see if the Dbacks would sell low on him now, try to reestablish his 2015 delivery, and recapture his value.

[Mike Sixel]

From Klawchat....

Why is Jose Berrios still in AAA? Duffey was destroyed by Atlanta last night while Berrios had another QS in AAA.


Klaw....
I don't know. Their handling of Berrios has been baffling. Their handling of Buxton has been baffling. They are baffling.

[jimmer]

 

From Eno's chat today:

 

mike sixel
1:35 In real life.....Kyle Gibson or Shelby Miller for the remainder of their deals?

Eno Sarris
1:35 Kyle Gibson has been improving his swinging strike and strikeout stuff, shhh nobody noticing.

Last year around this time some people were professing he had finally turned the corner and would be really good this year (finally) and then he has this season.  He'll be 29 this year.  Most pitchers are who they are at this point.

[Mike Sixel]

From klawchat....

 

Cleveland is looking at the Twins Nunez. Would Mike Clevinger be enough for him? Probably a low floor but should be a starter with 6 years of control. Twins need pitching and we won't miss him.

 

 

Klaw

All-Star Eduardo Nunez! ... who is hitting .269/.295/.394 since june 1st, because he's not very good and my word cannot play shortstop. Take whatever you can get.

[Mike Sixel]

Ouch....From klawchat

 

When do we shift our expectations for what Buxton will be? Which isn't a way of saying we should now, but rather, how many more seasons like this before we settle on "rich man's Rajai Davis"; 2? 3?

 

Klaw....

 

I'd like to see him get an opportunity to play in another regime, in Minnesota or elsewhere, before I walk away from the immense natural talent here.

[Mike Sixel]

Wow...is no twins fan working today?

 

Daniel Palka...any chance of being even a solid starting big leaguer, or just a 4-A type of player?

 

 

Klaw

I think he's an up and down guy or bench player.

[Mike Sixel]

And, another....

 

How much do you think Brunansky and/or Molitor have screwed up Sano and Buxton at the plate. Just leave them alone to get comfortable in their own way. It looks like Sano has regressed this year. Seems like all their rookies have a better track record in the minors and then lose it at the Major league level. Is it the coaching at the MLB level? I hope they leave Kepler alone and just let him develop. Mauers toast.

 

Klaw....

 

Yes, I think it's the coaching staff, which is yet another reason I don't like the owner saying Molitor etc were staying. If the new GM walks in and says, hey, these guys are actively hurting our organization by mishandling players, then you freaking fire them.