Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[alarp33]

 

Of course we can criticize. I didn't mean to imply that at all.

 

But the breadth and depth of the criticism is eye-rolling at times. People make way too many snap judgments and casually speak well outside their realm of knowledge.

 

With the exception of one person in this thread, we're all laymen. It's important to keep that in mind.

 

I don't know, I guess I just see snap judgement as part of what a message board is.  

 

Sure, some of the criticisms (like the medical staff you used as an example) can get nauseating and beaten to death.  

 

Criticizing player development; at a time when the top prospect in baseball just got demoted to the minors, again, numerous minor league bullpen options were supposed to be the cure this season, rather than free agency, haven't even made the Majors, the Twins own manager has made clear player development is nowhere near the top of the list of his responsibilities, etc...

 

I mean it seems warranted at this point.... 

[alarp33]

 

Throwing out a list of names is always the easiest way to "prove" a point. Of course there will be failures. What does that prove? Show me data that proves that other teams have fewer failures. And if someone wanted to "prove" the opposite point, his/her post would read like this:

 

Trevor May?

 

Max Kepler? (debatable, I know)

 

Can't it be considered a success that so many of the relief pitchers drafted have either already had ML success (Duffey) or, despite almost each and every one of these guys being out for a season, or more, that they are still considered to be exceptional relief pitching prospects by the experts? I'm talking about Chargois, Burdi, Reed, Jones, Hildenberger, Melotakis, Peterson, Jay, Cedaroth, Bard.....the list goes on....and MOST, not some, of these guys have been delayed only because of injury.

 

Aaron Hicks? Okay, tell me how well the five guys drafted BEFORE Hicks and AFTER Hicks are doing? That way, we can tell a little something about the available talent that year. Who knows, maybe some would form an opinion that, given the situation, Hicks wasn't that bad of a call.

 

I think you kind of missed the point.  But ok

 

Trevor May is the success you could come up with? He was a top 100 prospect at one point and is currently a mildly successful bullpen guy, when many had hopes of him being a solid #3 starter.  

 

Using relivers to prove your point is also pretty odd, seeing as the Twins expected a number of those guys to help this season, and most are still floundering in AA.  

 

Aaron Hicks was developed well? Why are we looking at the draft, we were talking about development.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Criticizing player development; at a time when the top prospect in baseball just got demoted to the minors, again, numerous minor league bullpen options were supposed to be the cure this season, rather than free agency, haven't even made the Majors, the Twins own manager has made clear player development is nowhere near the top of the list of his responsibilities, etc...

 

I mean it seems warranted at this point.... 

I believe it's absolutely warranted.

 

My problem comes with solutions, not questions. We don't know where the Twins have gone wrong. Is it the GM? Scouting? Analytics? Nutrition? Janitorial services?

 

Or is it a little bit of all those things? And in which portions?

 

I have lots of opinions about where the Twins have gone wrong and how they can fix some of the obvious problems. I'm also honest and intelligent enough to admit - at least inwardly - that I'm making this **** up as I go along.

[alarp33]

 

I believe it's absolutely warranted.

 

My problem comes with solutions, not questions. We don't know where the Twins have gone wrong. Is it the GM? Scouting? Analytics? Nutrition? Janitorial services?

 

Or is it a little bit of all those things? And in which portions?

 

I have lots of opinions about where the Twins have gone wrong and how they can fix some of the obvious problems. I'm also honest and intelligent enough to admit - at least inwardly - that I'm making this **** up as I go along.

 

Besides letting these guys (hitters) spend even a couple more months at AA + AAA before rushing them to the Majors, I'm certainly not qualified to answer that, and I don't think anyone on here is  (I'm not even sure Jack would say he has an answer on how to fix the development issue).  

 

But that's part of the reason people like me are saying, blow this thing up, hire from outside the organization for GM/President, and let that person fix it.  Besides that, I'm not offering up any suggestions because it's beyond my pay grade. 

 

I trust someone from a different organization to fix this more than someone who has worked in this front office for years of failure. Is that fair?

[bird]

 

 

 

Look, the drafts for like 5 years were terrible. Buxton, who nearly everyone thought was can't miss, looks hopeless. That's going to cloud how people perceive this team for some time.

 

The drafts for several years in a row, by the estimations of a lot of experts, have been good, right?

 

Perceptions will be clouded if people focus on the misses, ignore the hits, and prematurely judge things.

 

An earlier comment in the thread from Taildragger talked about the "disconnect" between minor league success and major league results, and that's an understandable phenomenon. My opinion is that the primary disconnect between those two things is the patience of the observer. If we did a review of the comments from 3 years ago, we'd find comments about several of the players who are now clearly a promising part of the future like the one you accurately make to describe how Buxton looks right this minute (hopeless).

[Mike Sixel]

 

The drafts for several years in a row, by the estimations of a lot of experts, have been good, right?

 

Perceptions will be clouded if people focus on the misses, ignore the hits, and prematurely judge things.

 

An earlier comment in the thread from Taildragger talked about the "disconnect" between minor league success and major league results, and that's an understandable phenomenon. My opinion is that the primary disconnect between those two things is the patience of the observer. If we did a review of the comments from 3 years ago, we'd find comments about several of the players who are now clearly a promising part of the future like the one you accurately make to describe how Buxton looks right this minute (hopeless).

 

Well, I'm talking perception in that post....and perception is a lot different than nuanced analysis of the world. Also, perception is VERY hard to shake, once it exists. They'll have to show sustained success to shake off the badness.

[Taildragger8791]

 

Throwing out a list of names is always the easiest way to "prove" a point. Of course there will be failures. What does that prove? Show me data that proves that other teams have fewer failures. And if someone wanted to "prove" the opposite point, his/her post would read like this:

 

Trevor May?

 

Max Kepler? (debatable, I know)

 

Can't it be considered a success that so many of the relief pitchers drafted have either already had ML success (Duffey) or, despite almost each and every one of these guys being out for a season, or more, that they are still considered to be exceptional relief pitching prospects by the experts? I'm talking about Chargois, Burdi, Reed, Jones, Hildenberger, Melotakis, Peterson, Jay, Cedaroth, Bard.....the list goes on....and MOST, not some, of these guys have been delayed only because of injury.

 

Aaron Hicks? Okay, tell me how well the five guys drafted BEFORE Hicks and AFTER Hicks are doing? That way, we can tell a little something about the available talent that year. Who knows, maybe some would form an opinion that, given the situation, Hicks wasn't that bad of a call.

 

I don't think I'd list Trevor May as a success story yet. He's already fallen from starter to reliever, and while he has good stretches he still gets blown up at times. I wouldn't call him established. I want to see a full season ERA below 4.00 first.

 

Kepler could turn out to be a feather in the cap, but it's still too early to call him a finished product. There are some back and forth adjustments with pitchers yet to come.

 

I'm reserving judgment on the college relievers until they get to the majors. The Twins have had plenty of guys dominate in the minors, it's the translation to the big leagues where the wheels tend to come off. The next year or two will be pretty telling.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I trust someone from a different organization to fix this more than someone who has worked in this front office for years of failure. Is that fair?

I think it is. I feel the same way.

 

I'm also fine if that external hire keeps some or all of the current front office. That's their call to make and I will defer to their inside knowledge of the situation, at least in the beginning.

[bird]

 

I think you kind of missed the point.  But ok

 

Trevor May is the success you could come up with? He was a top 100 prospect at one point and is currently a mildly successful bullpen guy, when many had hopes of him being a solid #3 starter.  

 

Using relivers to prove your point is also pretty odd, seeing as the Twins expected a number of those guys to help this season, and most are still floundering in AA.  

 

Aaron Hicks was developed well? Why are we looking at the draft, we were talking about development.  

 

 

You may have missed my point. I wasn't attempting to throw a list of names out to "prove" anything. I was instead trying to point out how bantering about a few names on someone's proof list proves absolutely nothing. And your response is clearly proof of that.

[alarp33]

 

You may have missed my point. I wasn't attempting to throw a list of names out to "prove" anything. I was instead trying to point out how bantering about a few names on someone's proof list proves absolutely nothing. And your response is clearly proof of that.

 

Brock said the only clear failure was Buxton, who its way to early to give up on (agreed).  I wasn't trying to prove anything either, I was adding a couple of names that he probably glossed over, mainly 2 that aren't part of the organization anymore so he may not have considered.  I think he understood why I added them

[crapforks]

Having Jack Goin as a contributor here is awesome! 

[jimmer]

 

 

 

I think the comment was an unnecessary cheapshot, something I see too frequently lately in these chats (like the other guy who said the Twins were the most hopeless team in MLB).

Except the perception is wide spread.  Keith Law just got done saying he'd like to see how Buxton would be if he got a chance in another organization.  During a recent MLB Network morning show (MLB Central) they too wondered about the system and said they thought they were furthest along.  This isn't just a Fangraphs chat thing (where they have to answer questions quickly).  Others who have much more time say the same things.

 

And maybe having 6 drafts with 11 first rounders do absolutely nothing is part of that perception ('06-'11).  And so far '12 isn't looking too good either.

[Mike Sixel]

as much as I like KLAW.....and as positive as he's been about their drafts lately......he has serious reservations about their development and use of stats, rightly or wrongly.

[bird]

 

I don't think I'd list Trevor May as a success story yet. He's already fallen from starter to reliever, and while he has good stretches he still gets blown up at times. I wouldn't call him established. I want to see a full season ERA below 4.00 first.

 

Kepler could turn out to be a feather in the cap, but it's still too early to call him a finished product. There are some back and forth adjustments with pitchers yet to come.

 

I'm reserving judgment on the college relievers until they get to the majors. The Twins have had plenty of guys dominate in the minors, it's the translation to the big leagues where the wheels tend to come off. The next year or two will be pretty telling.

 

 

You just made my point.    Because the next guy's response is:

 

Well, I don't think Alex Meyer is a failure yet, either. He's been injured...

 

And Rosario may turn into a flash in the pan, but it's too early to stick a fork in him. There are some back and forth adjustments with pitchers yet to come.

 

And yes, let's reserve judgment on relievers then. Let's retract the earlier declaration of failure for now, and ignore Duffey's MLB career for the moment.

 

Regardless of what we agree or disagree on with a list of names, we're not "proving" anything. If someone wants to convince me that the Twins, for example, are one of the best talent evaluators and talent developers, I want to see a reduced-noise comparison to the other teams, not some list of failures removed from any semblance of context. No more "gee, the Tigers have Verlander, and we have Gibson stuff, so we suck at drafting players." I'm glad those types of posts are increasingly rare on TD.

[Mike Sixel]

from today's prospect chat:

 

Eric 1:34 What's a reasonable expectation for Zack Granite?

 

Eric A Longenhagen   1:34 4th OF is reasonable. College kid from Seton Hall, good body, can run and play CF, has contact skills but I can't project better than 30 game power there because of the swing.

 

chronicles of Reddick  1:38 What is your outlook on Nick Gordon, twins? potential everyday player?

 

Eric A Longenhagen   1:38 Yup. Tools aren't that loud but he's all-around solid and plays a decent SS. That'll get you far on its own.

 

Austin    1:50 What are the chances Adam Brett walker can make the jump to the major successfully? He seems to have excelled at every level despite warning he'll fall off and strike out too much to be valuable.

 

Eric A Longenhagen  1:50 I think the chances are slim.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

chronicles of Reddick  1:38 What is your outlook on Nick Gordon, twins? potential everyday player?

 

Eric A Longenhagen   1:38 Yup. Tools aren't that loud but he's all-around solid and plays a decent SS. That'll get you far on its own.

That's my take so obviously I agree. Gordon isn't scaring anyone with a single tool but he's decent-to-good at almost everything.

 

In a shortstop, that means he could be a very good player overall, the kind of guy who posts 3-4 WAR a season but few fans ever seem to realize it.

[Craig Arko]

Having Jack Goin as a contributor here is awesome!

 

It takes a lot of guts to swim in shark-infested waters.

[70charger]

 

It takes a lot of guts to swim in shark-infested waters.

 

We're mostly just crappies dressed in shark suits.

[Mike Sixel]

Austin    2:09 How about some twins sleepers? Any?

 

Eric A Longenhagen     2:10 Trey Cabbage and Lamonte Wade, if you consider them sleepers.

[Vanimal46]

Big fan of LaMonte Wade... 

[Taildragger8791]

 

Big fan of LaMonte Wade... 

 

Vanimal and Wade, sittin' in a tree...

[USAFChief]

Vanimal and Wade, sittin' in a tree...

Both of you...come down from there, this instant. I mean it!

 

The last thing we need is for a minor leaguer to fall and get injured.

 

And Vanimal is too valuable as a game thread starter for these kinds of stunts!

[ashbury]

Both of you...come down from there, this instant. I mean it!

 

The last thing we need is for a minor leaguer to fall and get injured.

 

And Vanimal is too valuable as a game thread starter for these kinds of stunts!

Quick, Van, get these over to the Game Thread, pronto! Run, run!

 

http://therunnerdad.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Running-with-scissors-280x134.jpg

[nytwinsfan]

I just want to say how much I appreciate this thread. It is so convenient and informative. Thanks to whoever created it.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Thanks to whoever created it.

Let's not go and give Mike a big head, now. 

[PseudoSABR]

 

I have lots of opinions about where the Twins have gone wrong and how they can fix some of the obvious problems. I'm also honest and intelligent enough to admit - at least inwardly - that I'm making this **** up as I go along.

So much this.  

 

If you understand you have limited information, which might be a mere fraction of the total information, you can't behave as if your opinions/assessments are a certitude.  

 

I think what bugs me most of all is not posters' critiques or conclusions, but the extent to which posters tend to profess that they are both obvious and certain.

[70charger]

 

So much this.  

 

If you understand you have limited information, which might be a mere fraction of the total information, you can't behave as if your opinions/assessments are a certitude.  

 

I think what bugs me most of all is not posters' critiques or conclusions, but the extent to which posters tend to profess that they are both obvious and certain.

 

The conclusory bothers me as well. There is literally nothing in this game that is obvious or certain.

 

Well, wait, but there's always...... NO. NOTHING.

[The Wise One]

I think it is. I feel the same way.

 

I'm also fine if that external hire keeps some or all of the current front office. That's their call to make and I will defer to their inside knowledge of the situation, at least in the beginning.

The people who would be so disappointed in an inhouse candidate forget a few things. How many of the core players on Houston's team was brought in by Wade? Boston need tweaking, which Epstien gets all the credit for building the Red Sox into champions. Wlt Jockety was thrown out of St Louis with an inhouse person rising. I do not think Jockety has won since. Moore should get all the credit for KC. Sometimes the outside person arrives at the right time and makes the right key moves. There are also plenty of wrong moves like adding Gomez last year probably negatively impacted Houston. Arizona probably has regressed. It could be a crapshoot when you hire. The time to have brought in someone new to the Twins was 2011 or so, The team really was at rock bottom.

[Mike Sixel]

AJ  1:27 Kennys Vargas seems to have a great eye and power: why no burn in MIN?

 

Eno Sarris  1:27 The eye goes in and out and no position, I gues.

[bluechipper]

 

AJ  1:27 Kennys Vargas seems to have a great eye and power: why no burn in MIN?

 

Eno Sarris  1:27 The eye goes in and out and no position, I gues.

I think Vargas is closer to having a good eye and good power. I wasn't the biggest Vargas fan after his first two stints, but the discipline and eye at the plate seems to have improved quite a bit this time around.