Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[nytwinsfan]

 

The discussion about Mauer stemmed from a question asked and answered at Fangraphs. Seems pretty on track to me since the discussion stemmed from the question of whether or not Mauer will be a HOFer.

I know, it was fair game. I'm just sooo tired of that discussion and was being a whiny brat.

[Guest]

Piazza with 63.7 is in.  Torre with 62.3 is not in (as a player.)  Mauer has 46.7 (ahead of Posada btw, 44.7)

 

Interestingly, Puckett has 44.9 and similarly his career was cut short (but not declined) because of injuries.   

 

In a weird way, I think if Mauer stopped playing after 2013 and retiring with 43.0 WAR, he would have had a better case than now.

 

Any way, it is not automatic in or out regarding Mauer...

 

I wonder if perception of Mauer's HOF chances would be better if the sequencing of Mauer's seasons were reversed, such that his 2012-2016 stats occurred first in his career and his better years were more recent.

[Doomtints]

Some perspective:  Getting into the HOF means little to nothing.   

I would say let's table the Mauer HOF debate until after he finishes out his career.  Otherwise, this conversation is likely to ramble on for the next three years.  

[jimmer]

 

Some perspective:  Getting into the HOF means little to nothing.   

I would say let's table the Mauer HOF debate until after he finishes out his career.  Otherwise, this conversation is likely to ramble on for the next three years.  

Means little or nothing to the fans.  Means a whole bunch for many of the players. Most people wouldn't mind being labeled as the best of the very best in the history of their job.

[Doomtints]

 

Means little or nothing to the fans.  Means a whole bunch for many of the players. Most people wouldn't mind being labeled as the best of the very best in the history of their job.

 

I can say from experience that being "the best of the best" is fleeting.  Being a valedictorian in high school means very little when you are 45.  Inventing a new great product that has a great run is great at the time but years down the road it will be a distant memory.

Mauer will remember his baseball career the same way whether he makes the HOF or not.  His MVP year is already a distant memory to him as he grinds through seasons now.  If he makes the HOF, his induction will be a great party.  Then he'll slog off back home and still have to figure out what he is doing next.  

 

If baseball players' motivation was recognition, they would be politicians instead.  In general, those who seek out recognition are either very young or they are very unaccomplished as adults.  The general rule is that for every person who recognizes your good work, there will be a dozen who rag on it or try to derail you.  The key to success is ignoring all of that and finding motivation within yourself.  Recognition is nice but it means nothing.   

[jimmer]

 

I can say from experience that being "the best of the best" is fleeting.  Being a valedictorian in high school means very little when you are 45.  Inventing a new great product that has a great run is great at the time but years down the road it will be a distant memory.

Mauer will remember his baseball career the same way whether he makes the HOF or not.  His MVP year is already a distant memory to him as he grinds through seasons now.  If he makes the HOF, his induction will be a great party.  Then he'll slog off back home and still have to figure out what he is doing next.  

 

If baseball players' motivation was recognition, they would be politicians instead.  

Again, your opinion. And I doubt it's close to correct. Plenty of players have said other-wise, and plenty of them have outright pushed to be elected HOFers when they weren't getting votes.

 

Also, you understand there's a monetary advantage to being a HOFer right?  Players can charge more for signings, for lectures, for appearances when they are a HOFer.

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970203547904574279891736968048

 

You want to believe players don't really care, I say there's almost no chance that the vast majority agree with that.  There are 69 living members right now (63 players).  That's a select group.

[Doomtints]

 

Again, your opinion. And I doubt it's close to correct. Plenty of players have said other-wise, and plenty of them have outright pushed to be elected HOFers when they weren't getting votes.

 

Also, you understand there's a monetary advantage to being a HOFer right?  Players can charge more for signings, for lectures, for appearances when they are a HOFer.

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970203547904574279891736968048

 

You want to believe players don't really care, I say there's almost no chance that the vast majority agree with that.  There are 69 living members right now (not all of them made it for being a player).  That's a select group.

 

Sure it's my opinion.  And it's an opinion that most people my age or older share.  I don't expect someone in their 20s or even 30s to get it.  

I don't buy the money thing either.  For one, Mauer already has more money than he can possibly spend.  If Mauer ever charges for an autograph he should be taken to task.  Additionally, if someone wants Mauer's autograph they are not going to be thinking about whether or not he is in the HOF.  I think you mean *vendors* could *resell* his autograph for more $ if he is in the HOF.  Who cares?

[Mike Sixel]

Ugh, a long debate on the HoF.....just....ugh.

[jimmer]

 

Sure it's my opinion.  And it's an opinion that most people my age or older share.  I don't expect someone in their 20s or even 30s to get it.  

I don't buy the money thing either.  For one, Mauer already has more money than he can possibly spend.  If Mauer ever charges for an autograph he should be taken to task.  Additionally, if someone wants Mauer's autograph they are not going to be thinking about whether or not he is in the HOF.  I think you mean *vendors* could *resell* his autograph for more $ if he is in the HOF.  Who cares?

Well, no there's a link I provided that clearly shows the financial advantages HOF players get as HOFer.  But it was just done by the Wall Street journal, who clearly knows nothing about finance and didn't research the article at all.

 

And I'm in my mid 40s, but ok. I understand how us young whipper-snappers don't get the wisdom provided by our elders.  Must have been a heck of a time polling everyone in your age group to get a majority opinion on this subject.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Again, your opinion. And I doubt it's close to correct. Plenty of players have said other-wise, and plenty of them have outright pushed to be elected HOFers when they weren't getting votes.

 

Also, you understand there's a monetary advantage to being a HOFer right?  Players can charge more for signings, for lectures, for appearances when they are a HOFer.

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970203547904574279891736968048

 

You want to believe players don't really care, I say there's almost no chance that the vast majority agree with that.  There are 69 living members right now (63 players).  That's a select group.

Does all this describe Mauer to you?

[jimmer]

 

Does all this describe Mauer to you?

I don't think being mild-mannered excludes a person from wanting to be considered one of the all-time greats in their profession. 

[jimmer]

Anyway, I'm done with the HOF debating in this thread.  Hopefully Dave Cameron will provide more stuff for people to argue about in his chat today.

[Platoon]

So many, and I don't necessarily mean just here, have focused on the amount of money Mauers contract entails. While in some instances, a contracts length or stipulations, i.e. no trade, or team restrictions, would be an issue to me, the dollar amount has always been irrelevant. For one thing, it's not my money and for another, ownership has the money to spend on other players, if they so chose. It's simply a matter of who gets the money? The player, or the owner. For almost all of the teams, a lack of money is not an issue. Nor is profitability. The bottom line is the Twins have so many problems, any that are perceived to include Mauer are so far down the list, a new GM won't get to it until the contract is up anyway!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Anyway, I'm done with the HOF debating in this thread.  Hopefully Dave Cameron will provide more stuff for people to argue about in his chat today.

 

Nope, nada. 

[jimmer]

 

Nope, nada. 

nothing about the twins?  Sad news.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I can say from experience that being "the best of the best" is fleeting.  Being a valedictorian in high school means very little when you are 45.  Inventing a new great product that has a great run is great at the time but years down the road it will be a distant memory.

Mauer will remember his baseball career the same way whether he makes the HOF or not.  His MVP year is already a distant memory to him as he grinds through seasons now.  If he makes the HOF, his induction will be a great party.  Then he'll slog off back home and still have to figure out what he is doing next.  

 

If baseball players' motivation was recognition, they would be politicians instead.  In general, those who seek out recognition are either very young or they are very unaccomplished as adults.  The general rule is that for every person who recognizes your good work, there will be a dozen who rag on it or try to derail you.  The key to success is ignoring all of that and finding motivation within yourself.  Recognition is nice but it means nothing.

 

I agree completely. Mauer would probably not care one way or another for the recognition the HOF would give him (I think that's what I hear you saying) or for the monetary gains that would open up for him. After seeing that JWAR list I think he will have a really strong case and a good chance to make it.

[Doomtints]

 

I agree completely. Mauer would probably not care one way or another for the recognition the HOF would give him (I think that's what I hear you saying) or for the monetary gains that would open up for him. After seeing that JWAR list I think he will have a really strong case and a good chance to make it.

 

He's in if considered a catcher by the voters.  But that might be a tough sell.  But the good news is he's not far away from the C + 1B combination, needing only another 4 WAR.

 

Unfortunately I don't think the voters look at JAWS to sway their decisions, and the other metrics are a bit further away.  But as we have discussed, I would be surprised if Mauer is losing sleep over it.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ugh, a long debate on the HoF.....just....ugh.

Whoever started this HOF tangent should be tarred and feathered!  Agreed?

[D. Hocking]

 

Whoever started this HOF tangent should be tarred and feathered!  Agreed?

 

or banishment to the volley ball thread.

[jimmer]

 

or banishment to the volley ball thread.

nobody deserves that :-)

[Mike Sixel]

 

or banishment to the volley ball thread.

 

Please, not that...

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

A couple of blokes try to say some kind things about Joe Mauer here, and they're asked not to discuss it and then mocked and ridiculed. Can't make that **** up

[Mike Sixel]

 

A couple of blokes try to say some kind things about Joe Mauer here, and they're asked not to discuss it and then mocked and ridiculed. Can't make that **** up

 

If that's all it was.....

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

If that's all it was.....

I thought so!

[Willihammer]

ALC BIP analysis: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/team-ball-in-play-analysis-al-central/
 

 

MINNESOTA TWINS

Very quietly, the Twins are the second-best ball-striking club in the Central, with an almost exactly league-average offensive “ERA” of 5.56 on BIP alone. This is largely a byproduct of a solid BIP mix marked by high fly-ball and liner rates, as club authority levels are near average across all BIP types. On the mound, the Twins allowed the loudest contact in the AL at the break, with myriad issues serving as root causes. There’s the high fly-ball and liner rates, the low pop-up rate, the materially harder-than-average authority across all BIP types: you name it. The Twins “pitch to contact” philosophy has worked out horribly for them in recent seasons, and their 6.01 projected ERA on BIP alone is living proof. On BIP alone, the Twins’ projected winning percentage checks in at .462.

 

Adding back K and BB only adds to the Twins’ problems. They are materially worse than average in three of the four measures, offensive K rate and pitching K and BB rates. Their projected offensive “ERA” remains squarely in the league average range at 4.20, while their projected staff ERA remains over a full STD higher than league average at 4.68, though it does crawl one spot above the AL cellar. Before adjustment for net team defense, the Twins’ projected winning percentage stands at .446.

 

The Twins’ defensive multiplier of 1.046 ranks fourth in the Central and 11th in the AL. They have issues with both fly-ball (1.089 multiplier) and ground-ball (1.128) defense. The latter mark ranks second worst in the league. The Twins did allow harder grounders than the ones they hit, but the performance differential (Twins hit .229 AVG-.244 SLG on their grounders vs. their opponents’ .267 AVG-.293 SLG) was still daunting. One intriguing reason: the Twins allowed three ground-ball triples in the first half; there were 19 hit in all of baseball. After adjustment for team defense, their projected winning percentage falls to .424, or a 38-50 record, six games better than their actual mark.

 

[70charger]

Well there it is. Proof of what I suspected all along: the Twins have a historically toxic combination of ineptitude and bad luck. They're supposed to be terrible, and they're even worse.

 

Still, it's nice to see the good batting, and it's nice to see the young guys coming along. At least the future is a lot brighter.

[amjgt]

If Joe doesn't make the HOF can the Twins retroactively pay him less?

[jimmer]

 

If Joe doesn't make the HOF can the Twins retroactively pay him less?

Twins have gotten way more value from him on the field alone than they will end up paying him.

[Mike Sixel]

Today's fringe five:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-five-baseballs-most-compelling-fringe-prospects-80/

 

 

Zach Granite is number 1! Fernando Romero is in the "next five".

[Mike Sixel]

mike sixel
11:13 How did you meet people when you moved to Portland? Dang, it's hot with no AC.....The Twins are looking pretty hopeless for next year, if Berrios doesn't pick it up. thoughts on his struggles?

 

Jeff Sullivan
11:14 Met a bunch of people rock climbing. That's worked out well. Also met a few people just through baseball. It is extremely hard to make friends as an adult
11:15 As for Berrios, I'm not too worried. I'm sure his confidence has been shaken but he's too good to be this bad. I like him for 2017. Not so much the Twins overall