Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Major League Ready]

 

Ouch:

 

Holala
3:02 Who will have a better career? Luke Weaver or Jose Berrios?
Eric A Longenhagen
3:02 I'm really down on Berrios, will say Weaver.

Never count out the guy out with a ton of talent and a great work ethic.

[Vanimal46]

Paul Swydan in the Fangraphs after dark chat:

9:25

Roger: Is Brian Dozier in the top 50 in trade value now? Seems like the Twins have a great opportunity to sell high on a quality player under control for 2 years for a total of 15 million.

 

9:26
Paul Swydan: Maybe toward the bottom. He’s also 30 next year, and this is pretty clearly going to be his best season ever.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

9:26

Paul Swydan: Maybe toward the bottom. He’s also 30 next year, and this is pretty clearly going to be his best season ever.

He's probably right but stuff like this irritates me about analysts.

 

Is it likely this is going to be Dozier's career year? Yes. Absolutely.

 

Is it clear this is going to be Dozier's career year? Jose Bautista says hi.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He's probably right but stuff like this irritates me about analysts.

 

Is it likely this is going to be Dozier's career year? Yes. Absolutely.

 

Is it clear this is going to be Dozier's career year? Jose Bautista says hi.

Bautista put up a 165 wRC+ in his age-29 breakout, compared to Dozier's 142, and more importantly, Bautista was walking almost as much as he struck out.  (And indeed his walks went on to exceed his strikeouts the very next season, and several more times too.)  Bautista achieved that level of performance with a career-low .233 BABIP, while Dozier is achieving his with a career-high .287.

 

I don't think there are nearly as many indicators that Dozier can maintain this level of performance.  Not all breakouts are created equal.  I think it's pretty fair to use the word "clearly" here to emphasize that point.  (I'd guess virtually all 29 year old baseball players are "likely" to perform worse in the future, so it's not particularly meaningful to apply that term so broadly.)

[Han Joelo]

I agree with Brock.    If anything, the ability to adapt and improve that Dozier has shown this season makes me even more confident that he will continue to be highly productive at the plate.  He's not following a typical career arc of getting by on talent and then seeing his production decline as he ages past his peak athletic years.

 

Which isn't to say he won't decline, or even that this isn't his "career" year.  Career year in this context is used negatively too often, indicating a performance is some kind of statistically unlikely anomaly that a player will be able to rest on for the remainder of their days as some kind of testament to their true ability, even if never repeated.  This might be a spike on the graph, or it may be the high point of a gently curving arc.

[Han Joelo]

 

Bautista put up a 165 wRC+ in his age-29 breakout, compared to Dozier's 142, and more importantly, Bautista was walking almost as much as he struck out.  (And indeed his walks went on to exceed his strikeouts the very next season, and several more times too.)  Bautista achieved that level of performance with a career-low .233 BABIP, while Dozier is achieving his with a career-high .287.

 

I don't think there are nearly as many indicators that Dozier can maintain this level of performance.  Not all breakouts are created equal.  I think it's pretty fair to use the word "clearly" here to emphasize that point.  (I'd guess virtually all 29 year old baseball players are "likely" to perform worse in the future, so it's not particularly meaningful to apply that term so broadly.

Dangit.  There you were using numbers to type your response at exactly the same time I was pulling mine out my arse.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Dangit.  There you were using numbers to type your response at exactly the same time I was pulling mine out my arse.

 

No, you make some fair points.  It's not necessarily a diss on Dozier, it's just a reality of his age and components.  In the context of discussing his trade value, I think it's fair to note that.  He can still be useful/valuable going forward, but he's got a tough case to make for "top 50 trade value".

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Bautista put up a 165 wRC+ in his age-29 breakout, compared to Dozier's 142, and more importantly, Bautista was walking almost as much as he struck out.  (And indeed his walks went on to exceed his strikeouts the very next season, and several more times too.)  Bautista achieved that level of performance with a career-low .233 BABIP, while Dozier is achieving his with a career-high .287.

 

I don't think there are nearly as many indicators that Dozier can maintain this level of performance.  Not all breakouts are created equal.  I think it's pretty fair to use the word "clearly" here to emphasize that point.  (I'd guess virtually all 29 year old baseball players are "likely" to perform worse in the future, so it's not particularly meaningful to apply that term so broadly.)

I entirely agree with the first paragraph.

 

Same goes for the second. I'm not suggesting Dozier will maintain this level of performance - I think it's highly unlikely - but dismissing it off as an aberration is a mistake as well. It's the broad stroke used that bothers me. Words that state certainty should rarely be used for future projections. There's an underlying arrogance with some analysis that gets under my skin, that current stats automatically guarantee future performance.

 

Six months ago, no one in their right mind would have projected a 40 HR season for Dozier, yet it happened.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I entirely agree with the first paragraph.

 

Same goes for the second. I'm not suggesting Dozier will maintain this level of performance - I think it's highly unlikely - but dismissing it off as an aberration is a mistake as well. It's the broad stroke used that bothers me. Words that state certainty should rarely be used for future projections. There's an underlying arrogance with some analysis that gets under my skin, that current stats automatically guarantee future performance.

 

Six months ago, no one in their right mind would have projected a 40 HR season for Dozier, yet it happened.

The context was his trade value, though.

 

Put another way: the trade market is "clearly" going to view 2016 as his "likely" career year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Another interesting tidbit on the Dozier and Bautista tangent.  Bautista's age 29 season was his high career high, by far, in terms of isolated power.  50 points higher than his next best season (the following year).

 

Fortunately for Bautista, in his breakout he had also made significant strides in BB and K rates, and was likely to improve on that career low BABIP going forward too.

 

Unfortunately for Dozier, his age 29 performance boost is based almost entirely on isolated power, about 90 points higher than his next best season.  Still, it's not as insane as Bautista's was, and while his BABIP is a career high, it's still lower than league average so maybe he can keep some of those gains.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The context was his trade value, though.

 

Put another way: the trade market is "clearly" going to view 2016 as his "likely" career year.

I guess I don't disagree with that, though I'm not sure Dozier will revert back to a .750 OPS, either.

 

Is he a .775 OPS player now or an .850 OPS player? I guess that's the real argument.

[Vanimal46]

From Eno Sarris' Fangraphs chat today:

12:10

Joe Orsulak: Why does nobody want the Twins head of baseball ops job? Is it a salary issue? Or is it a control issue, with ownership too hands-on? Both?

 

12:10
Eno Sarris: I’d guess the owners are meddlers.

[HitInAPinch]

Dozier in 2 words:  Late Bloomer. 

 

Just checking to see if I'm talking out my arse:

[Guest]

He's probably right but stuff like this irritates me about analysts.

 

Is it likely this is going to be Dozier's career year? Yes. Absolutely.

 

Is it clear this is going to be Dozier's career year? Jose Bautista says hi.

Why can't they give their opinions? You can certainly disagree with their opinions, and in this case you raise valid counterpoints, but if the opinion is rational, I don't understand being irritated by it.

[The Wise One]

 

From Eno Sarris' Fangraphs chat today:

12:10

Joe Orsulak: Why does nobody want the Twins head of baseball ops job? Is it a salary issue? Or is it a control issue, with ownership too hands-on? Both?

 

12:10
Eno Sarris: I’d guess the owners are meddlers.

Blame Pohlad for the Nolasco signing because Ryan was told to do so?  Other than say Molitor will be manager next year, what has Pohlad done.  Given how many managers through the years have been fired after a vote of confidence. See Ryan's vote of confidence. That so many people put such strong faith in empty words is amazing. Eno should have spoken to as to what he knows, which is nothing.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Why can't they give their opinions? You can certainly disagree with their opinions, and in this case you raise valid counterpoints, but if the opinion is rational, I don't understand being irritated by it.

It was the certainty with which he predicted events yet to come.

[Guest]

It was the certainty with which he predicted events yet to come.

But making forecasts is the main part of his job, with #2 being entertainment.

[Mike Sixel]

Just like the rest of us, he's guessing....

 

JTT
9:21 Why does nobody seem to want the twins job? The team is basically begging for people to interview and guys are turning them down. I realize the team sucks and ownership is less than ideal but the Angels/mariners jobs were considered difficult and they got their guys pretty easily. Hell even the Marlins went relatively smooth

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:23 I'm going to guess this is more a case of just a few people saying no, and generating headlines. The Twins are going to fill their jobs and they will presumably fill them with quality candidates. It's mostly a desirable spot to work -- low expectations, great ballpark, loyal fan base. There are some issues people will have about working with ownership, and that might make it a little similar to when the Orioles had trouble finding a GM, but I can't imagine ownership is *that* off-putting
9:24 If you're a potential GM, you come in and figure you'll inherit an improving Sano, Buxton, and Berrios. There are worse places to start

[Mike Sixel]

Undecided
9:13 More WAR by the end of career: Betts or Buxton?

 

Jeff Sullivan
9:13 Betts isn't even 24 yet and he has a 13-win head start. It would be silly to choose Buxton here

[Vanimal46]

This is from the Sunday Notes column: 

"Brian Dozier’s home run explosion has come as a somewhat of a shock. Not that he hasn’t shown an ability to clear fences. The Twins second baseman came into the year having averaged 23 home runs over the past three seasons. But 41 and counting in mid-September, including 13 in August alone? No one expected that.

 

Even Dozier is surprised, but only to an extent. This is how he responded when I caught up to him at Target Field last weekend:

 

“I had 28 last year, so I have pop,” said Dozier. “Had you told me before the year that I was going to hit 30, I probably would have said, ‘Probably so.’ But that extra level… they come in bunches. When I hit the three in one game (on September 5), Jim Thome texted (Twins director of media relations) Dustin Morse. He said ‘Tell Dozier not to get used to this. Give Dozier a thing of bananas; they come in bunches.’ That’s the way it works. You hit five or six in a week and your home runs skyrocket.”"

[Vanimal46]

From the same column: Fun with Numbers

Mike Trout has 140 extra-base hits since the start of last season. Brian Dozier has 152 extra-base hits since the start of last season.

[Mike Sixel]

Today's chat:

 

Jedidiah
12:27 Are you buying shares of Kennys Vargas for 2017?
Dan Szymborski
12:27 Depends how cheap they're trading at. Remember, he wasn't actually good at AAA this year.

 

Raindog
12:50 Dozier currently has 41 HR. How many more must he hit in the next 12 games before he gets a single first place MVP vote? At least 9, right?
Dan Szymborski
12:50 I think he'll sneak out one.

[jimmer]

 

Today's chat:

 

Jedidiah
12:27 Are you buying shares of Kennys Vargas for 2017?
Dan Szymborski
12:27 Depends how cheap they're trading at. Remember, he wasn't actually good at AAA this year.

 

Raindog
12:50 Dozier currently has 41 HR. How many more must he hit in the next 12 games before he gets a single first place MVP vote? At least 9, right?
Dan Szymborski
12:50 I think he'll sneak out one.

One or both of the Minnesota Voters.  Like when the Chicago writers voted for Ordonez a few years back because he had the best season they remember a White Sox player having....as if that's the criteria  ;-)

[Mike Sixel]

And, on Dozier:

 

mike sixel
12:59 True of False: Dozier will be traded this off season? True or False: Dozier should be traded this off season?
Dan Szymborski
1:00 False, true.

 

Possibly unfair:

 

Jeb
1:08 Isn't Raindogs question "Are there any MVP voters in Minneapolis?"
Dan Szymborski
1:08 Heh

 

Not Twins:

Ronnie
1:13 Markakis for Ricky Nolasco?
Dan Szymborski
1:13 Would actually rather have Markakis

[ashbury]

 

 

Give Dozier a thing of bananas; they come in bunches.

 

That one goes into my handy dandy quote file.

[Vanimal46]

 

And, on Dozier:

 

mike sixel
12:59 True of False: Dozier will be traded this off season? True or False: Dozier should be traded this off season?
Dan Szymborski
1:00 False, true.

Sigh... That will most likely be true. A guy can still dream that a blockbuster trade will happen this off-season with Dozier included. 

[Mike Sixel]

from the prospects chat:

 

Zonk
2:24 What farm system, in your opinion, had the best year in terms of internal prospect growth? What prospects really emerged in that system?
Eric A Longenhagen
2:25 Not sure if it's the "best" but just off the top of my head (because, ya know, it's a chat) Minnesota had a bunch of guys perform well this year on the farm. LaMonte Wade, Huascar Ynoa, Luis Arraez...

[bluechipper]

 

Sigh... That will most likely be true. A guy can still dream that a blockbuster trade will happen this off-season with Dozier included. 

A good starting pitcher would be nice, but retaining a 40 HR second basemen isn't that bad of an outcome either.

[Vanimal46]

 

A good starting pitcher would be nice, but retaining a 40 HR second basemen isn't that bad of an outcome either.

 

Yeah 40 HR players don't grow on trees... But as we've seen this year, it doesn't matter much when the pitching is this bad.  

[Mike Sixel]

well, that wasn't helpful:

 

mike sixel
12:02 welcome to OR. It's great out here.....What kind of package could Dozier gather for the Twins, who if it weren't for the Reds might have the worst SP right now?

 

Dave Cameron
12:03 It's hard to tell. He's an excellent player, but he's so unusual that I'm not sure that teams will project this level of production to continue.