Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

Mike Sixel · June 18, 2018

mike sixel
2:24 how close to Cleveland would you have to be not to sell at the deadline if you were the Twins?
Dan Szymborski
2:24 3>
3?

ouch:

Bob
2:58 What player on steroids can't hit a HR at yankee stadium?
Dan Szymborski
2:58 Jason Tyner?

Mike Sixel · June 20, 2018

Sonny

12:15 What are the EV's scouts look for in HS level hitters? Is there a threshold for scouts that says X mph = 55+ Raw?

Kiley McDaniel

12:16 Scouts still largely don't know what to do with EV since there's a lot of office people that don't know exactly what to do with them, either. As an example, we knew Trevor Larnach (MIN, 1st round Oregon State) had somewhere from 60 to 70 raw power, but he didn't lift the ball a ton in BP and doesn't take full effort swings often. He hit some balls in game 112-115 mph which, to me and Eric, confirms it's 65 or 70 raw and he's getting to it in games.

Mike Sixel · June 20, 2018

Bill
1:29 Is Alex Kiriloff a 60 Hit 60 Game Power guy? Seems like he's exceeding expectations a bit
Kiley McDaniel
1:30 One of the few guys in the minors where that's possible

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-6-20-18/

jkcarew · June 20, 2018

It will be interesting to see how much swing-and-miss Trevor Larnach has in him when he gets to, say, A/A+...whatever that first level is that's significantly better than NCAA. Kirilloff has definitely been encouraging in that regard so far...reasonable K rate so far to go with all that X-base power for a 20 year-old. I'm hoping he continues to have this 'move up fast' profile.

70charger · June 26, 2018

Jon Tayler at SI.com:

With just over a month until the trade deadline, teams around the league have begun the process of figuring out what they need to stay in contention, or what to sell amid a rebuilding season. But for a few squads, the coming weeks will be all about deciding whether or not to go in on playoff dreams or call it quits early. Here’s a quick look at three teams in the middle and whether they should buy, sell or hold.

Sell: Minnesota Twins (34–40, third place in AL Central; 11 GB in AL wild card)

This time last summer, Minnesota was over .500 and neck-and-neck with Cleveland in the division before ultimately selling at the deadline after a down July, then made the playoffs anyway thanks to a red-hot August. Flash forward a year, and the Twins once again look like they’ll be moving veterans thanks to a bad combination of injuries and poor performance from key contributors.

That said, there’s some upside currently on the shelf in Ervin Santana (who’s missed the whole year with a finger injury), Byron Buxton (who’s played just 28 games because of various maladies) and Miguel Sano (currently in the minors after hitting just .203/.270/.405 in 163 plate appearances). If those three can get right and back, and veterans Brian Dozier (91 OPS+) and Logan Morrison (78) can find their strokes, the Twins could make some August noise once again. However, it’d likely be too little and too late: Already eight games back in the Central and even further out in the wild card, Minnesota’s playoff odds are a mere 4.7%. A second straight second-half surge looks rather unlikely from here. Expect the Twins to be fielding calls in July instead of making them.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/06/25/yankees-red-sox-jd-martinez-mike-trout-shohei-ohtani-mlb-scores

Apologies for formatting. I’m on mobile.

ashbury · June 26, 2018

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/06/25/yankees-red-sox-jd-martinez-mike-trout-shohei-ohtani-mlb-scores

Off-topic, but I enjoyed the video of Mike Trout's pinpoint slide for a steal of third base, in the next article down.

gunnarthor · June 26, 2018

Jon Tayler at SI.com:

With just over a month until the trade deadline, teams around the league have begun the process of figuring out what they need to stay in contention, or what to sell amid a rebuilding season. But for a few squads, the coming weeks will be all about deciding whether or not to go in on playoff dreams or call it quits early. Here’s a quick look at three teams in the middle and whether they should buy, sell or hold.

Sell: Minnesota Twins (34–40, third place in AL Central; 11 GB in AL wild card)

This time last summer, Minnesota was over .500 and neck-and-neck with Cleveland in the division before ultimately selling at the deadline after a down July, then made the playoffs anyway thanks to a red-hot August. Flash forward a year, and the Twins once again look like they’ll be moving veterans thanks to a bad combination of injuries and poor performance from key contributors.

That said, there’s some upside currently on the shelf in Ervin Santana (who’s missed the whole year with a finger injury), Byron Buxton (who’s played just 28 games because of various maladies) and Miguel Sano (currently in the minors after hitting just .203/.270/.405 in 163 plate appearances). If those three can get right and back, and veterans Brian Dozier (91 OPS+) and Logan Morrison (78) can find their strokes, the Twins could make some August noise once again. However, it’d likely be too little and too late: Already eight games back in the Central and even further out in the wild card, Minnesota’s playoff odds are a mere 4.7%. A second straight second-half surge looks rather unlikely from here. Expect the Twins to be fielding calls in July instead of making them.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/06/25/yankees-red-sox-jd-martinez-mike-trout-shohei-ohtani-mlb-scores

Apologies for formatting. I’m on mobile.

I think we're pretty clearly sellers. Just not sure what we have to sell. Lynn might be worth something. If Dozier would get hot, he could be worth something.

Whammy · June 26, 2018

I think we're pretty clearly sellers. Just not sure what we have to sell. Lynn might be worth something. If Dozier would get hot, he could be worth something.

Santana - If he gets at all healthy might be an interesting piece to move. Teams might view him as a bit of a 4/5th starter lottery ticket

Dozier - It comes down to whether the FO thinks they are going to make him a Qualifying offer. If they plan on it, then I can't imagine a team willing to give up enough for 2 months of Dozier, that would outweigh a potential 1st round comp pick.

Escobar - Unless he falls off the map, he seems like a strong QO candidate. If he's still 300/360/550 as the deadline approaches, I could see a team willing to give up enough that it would make it worth losing out on the comp pick. Ultimately I'd love to have him back, but trading him doesn't necessarily close the door on that.

Morrison - Some team might take a flyer.... why not move him if a team offers something

Rodney - Cheap... 2019 Option... very effective over the last two months. Seems like a strong candidate

Duke - Same as Rodney but without the 2019 option (I think)

OdoLynnzzi - If we could combine Odorizzi's first 6 weeks and Lynn's last 6 weeks we'd have quite an asset. As it sits now, Lynn probably has a bit more value, but is slightly more expensive. No commitment for either after this year although Odorizzi has one more year of team control left.

Mejia - Maybe. From the Twins perspective a better option would be to trade one of OdoLynnzzi and have Mejia fill in, but some teams might have some interest in him.

Gibby - One year of team control left, but I he and Escobar are definitely some "sell high" candidates. I'd like to keep him around but teams might overpay for the combo of very strong current production and one more year of team control.

Vanimal46 · June 26, 2018

Talking about selling year after year is boring. Like this team needs more flawed A level prospects in the system. They need difference makers. Not more people that could be good if they developed their bat/glove, whatever.

Mike Sixel · June 26, 2018

Indians Fan
1:18 Great chats. There are a number of exciting young arms. Wondering, what are your thoughts on their future. Which one has the best chance to be an ace. Shane Bieber, Jonathan Loaisigia, Jamie Barria, or Fernando Romero?
Kiley McDaniel
1:18 Eh, insanely low chance any is an ace. I would rank them Bieber, Lasagna, Romero, Barria

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-6-26-18/

Mike Sixel · June 27, 2018

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eddie-rosario-has-surpassed-his-peers/

Mike Sixel · June 27, 2018

Guest: Twins are 7.5 GB off CLE and have 4% playoff odds. Think they sell any assets?

12:31
Meg Rowley: Maybeeee, though I would think they would be more minor pieces as they look ahead to 2019. So when they trade every one you can come back and say, “Oh Meg, you dumb dummy.”

Ben: Is Sano donezo?
1:36
Meg Rowley: I don’t know about donezo, but barring a pretty significant transformation or change in approach, he’s significantly diminished.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/meg-rowley-fangraphs-chat-6-27-18/

nicksaviking · June 27, 2018

Talking about selling year after year is boring. Like this team needs more flawed A level prospects in the system. They need difference makers. Not more people that could be good if they developed their bat/glove, whatever.

That's what happens why all you have to sell is 2nd and 3rd tier talent.

Dozier picked a really bad time to fall off the map. Not that 2nd basemen league-wide have appeared to have a ton value lately.

Vanimal46 · June 27, 2018

That's what happens why all you have to sell is 2nd and 3rd tier talent.

Dozier picked a really bad time to fall off the map. Not that 2nd basemen league-wide have appeared to have a ton value lately.

It's the same vicious cycle...

Sign 2nd/3rd tier free agents.

Become flabbergasted that 2nd/3rd tier FAs didn't help make the team competitive.

Trade 2nd/3rd tier players for flawed prospects.

Become flabbergasted that flawed prospects don't develop and help the MLB team.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

nicksaviking · June 27, 2018

It's the same vicious cycle...

Sign 2nd/3rd tier free agents.

Become flabbergasted that 2nd/3rd tier FAs didn't help make the team competitive.

Trade 2nd/3rd tier players for flawed prospects.

Become flabbergasted that flawed prospects don't develop and help the MLB team.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

It would have been nice if they'd have drafted and developed some top end talent in the last decade or so that now would have matured into top marketable material.

We used to fret about extending, trading or QO'ing guys like Hunter, Mauer, Morneau and Santana as free agency was rapidly approaching. Geez, I'd like to be fretting that right about now. No offense to Escobar, I love the guy, but he's not in that league.

Mike Sixel · June 27, 2018

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/6/27/17510380/al-central-historically-bad-baseball-divisions

ouch

Vanimal46 · June 27, 2018

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/6/27/17510380/al-central-historically-bad-baseball-divisions

ouch

Sigh... Which makes this year hurt even more. We all had a good idea in March 3 teams in the division were going to be 90+ loss teams. Leaving the Twins and Cleveland as the only teams with a chance to win. We see how that's working out right now.

Thrylos · June 27, 2018

We used to fret about extending, trading or QO'ing guys like Hunter, Mauer, Morneau and Santana as free agency was rapidly approaching.

Nah. There was no Qualifying Offer back then. If they were class A or B free agents, the Twins automatically got picks...

Thrylos · June 27, 2018

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/6/27/17510380/al-central-historically-bad-baseball-divisions

ouch

From there:

"The Central divisions, which don’t have to contend directly with baseball’s big-money markets on the coasts, are familiar with failure."

That's pretty much garbage, because in each of the 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 World Series, there was at least one team from a Central Division, and that team won half of the titles.

Don't believe everything you read.

Mike Sixel · June 28, 2018

From there:

"The Central divisions, which don’t have to contend directly with baseball’s big-money markets on the coasts, are familiar with failure."

That's pretty much garbage, because in each of the 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 World Series, there was at least one team from a Central Division, and that team won half of the titles.

Don't believe everything you read.

except he's talking about teh DIVISION, not the winner of it.....

the whole thing.

look at the records of the whole divisions.

KirbyDome89 · June 28, 2018

It's the same vicious cycle...

Sign 2nd/3rd tier free agents.

Become flabbergasted that 2nd/3rd tier FAs didn't help make the team competitive.

Trade 2nd/3rd tier players for flawed prospects.

Become flabbergasted that flawed prospects don't develop and help the MLB team.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

I'll add that when actual talent does pop up they make sure to sell low.

Ramos, Garza, Hardy, Barlett, Gomez.....

Thrylos · June 28, 2018

except he's talking about teh DIVISION, not the winner of it.....

the whole thing.

look at the records of the whole divisions.

Sure, but having a team from the central in the WS is not a failure by any means.

What he is doing is saying that the bar in the Central is lower. Fine with that. However, that is not "failure", since teams in the central have made the last 6 out of 7 world series, which is kinda the measuring stick of excellence.

Having AL and/or NL champions coming from your division, instead of others, is a success, no matter how low the bar was set in the division because the other teams suck.

Mike Sixel · June 28, 2018

Benjamin
2:13 Brusdar to High-A!! Does he have the potential, however slim, to be an ace?

Eric A Longenhagen
2:14 I'm always gonna say 'ace' is heavy for just about every pitching prospect. It's like 6-8 guys in the bigs right now that I'd call 'ace'
2:15 But Brusdar is really good

Mike Sixel · June 28, 2018

Arraez missed all of 2017 with a torn ACL but he’s back to his high-contact ways, hitting .311 through two months. He has an 8% strikeout rate in his career and plays up the middle, but his swing generates pretty extreme opposite-field contact and he’s unlikely to hit for any in-game power. He’ll probably have to be a 7 bat to profile, even at second base.

FV: 35+

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily-prospect-notes-6-28/

Mike Sixel · June 28, 2018

Steve Motivator
2:56 Hi Eric. I'm curious how you feel about Mike Tauchman and LaMonte Wade becoming legitimate contributors to their respective organizations. With a decent sample size now in place, who are some of the other outfielders you see flying under the radar that are deserving of attention? Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen
2:58 I'm on Wade, skeptical of Tauchman. But also have less notes on Tauchman (who is 27 and in a crazy hitting environment) than I do on Wade (who is 24 and who I've got in-person history with dating back to college) so my error bar is bigger there

Mike
3:25 Royce lewis, alex kirilloff, brusdar have to be one of the best low minors prospect trios, right?
Eric A Longenhagen
3:25 Yes

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-chat-6-28/

Mike Sixel · June 29, 2018

Cold in Minnesota: Any news on Sano’s progress? Is there hope for him contributing anytime soon? Or even at all this season?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: With the Twins basically out of it, there’s reduced urgency to get Sano’s bat back into the lineup. They’re going to take their time and they’re going to get Sano into better shape. I’m sure he’ll return, but I don’t think it’s happening within a few weeks

OddBall Herrera: Think Jorge Polanco’s activation is much of a difference maker for the Twins, or is this too little too late? I for one am a believer in him but not so much this team.

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: Polanco is fine, the team is not