Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Mike Sixel]

I don't usually put minor league stuff here.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-30-prospects-minnesota-twins/

[Mike Sixel]

Part of this confirms what many of us said about Hughes on the roster.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/phil-hughes-and-the-sobering-history-of-thoracic-outlet-injuries/

[Mike Sixel]

Joe

12:39 Your Kepler vs. lefties prediction looks good so far, but do you think his numbers vs righties will improve?

 

 

Keith Law

12:39 Yes.

[gunnarthor]

 

Joe
12:39 Your Kepler vs. lefties prediction looks good so far, but do you think his numbers vs righties will improve?


Keith Law
12:39 Yes.

Klaw's been driving the Kepler bandwagon for several years. Hope he's right.

[Mike Sixel]

Parts + Gleyber

9:59 Byron Buxton solved his soft contact problems: just strike out!

 

 

Jeff Sullivan

9:59 For everything that's ever been written about Buxton, his year-to-year strikeout rates have spanned from 29% to 36%

10:00 Which is to say, they've spanned from high to very high

Maybe -- just maybe -- Byron Buxton isn't going to be a good major-league hitter

[Mill1634]

 

Parts + Gleyber
9:59 Byron Buxton solved his soft contact problems: just strike out!


Jeff Sullivan
9:59 For everything that's ever been written about Buxton, his year-to-year strikeout rates have spanned from 29% to 36%
10:00 Which is to say, they've spanned from high to very high
Maybe -- just maybe -- Byron Buxton isn't going to be a good major-league hitter

Hope he is wrong but sadly looks right -- so far anyway.

 

Also, thanks a ton for posting everything in here. It is one of my favorite threads on here. 

[Monkeypaws]

The Athletic just published an article by Eno Saris rating what he thought were the best curveballs in the game, using this methodology:

 

I used whiffs and grounders for curves because that’s what they are generally used for, and the relationship between curve whiff and grounder rates and overall pitcher quality (as judged by ERA, or estimators like SIERA) is strong. I used z-scores — which sum up a number’s relative difference from the mean — to add up the pitcher’s quality as seen by his curve whiff and grounder rates. I used three times the whiff rate z-score and one times the grounder z-score because of the relative weight of curves whiffs and grounders when using the two to try and predict overall outcomes through multivariable regression. I prefer doing it this way rather than using pitch type values, because that statistic includes ball in play results, which can contain noise.

 

Berrios, Gibson, and Odorizzi placed 5, 12, and 13 on the list. Surprising, but not really.

 

https://theathletic.com/372909/2018/05/30/best-pitches-of-2018-who-has-the-best-curveball-in-baseball/

[Mike Sixel]

THE Average Sports Fan
12:13 Are we seeing the beginning of Joey Votto slowly becoming Joe Mauer?

 

Jay Jaffe
12:16 As I noted earlier today, in the comments to my Anthony Rizzo piece (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/anthony-rizzos-dramatic-turnaround/), since I wrote about Votto on  April 20 (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-reds-slump-has-extended-to-joey-vot...), he’s posted a 168 wRC+, three points ahead of last year, and he's up to 132 overall. I wouldn't worry too much about the performance aspect of it.

As for the way the fan base has been conditioned to resent high-salaried players on teams that cry poor — something that we've seen all too much of in the case of Mauer — ugh. Those are the real losers, the ones who can't appreciate greatness even if the great player is stuck in a lousy situation.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-5-31-18/

[Mike Sixel]

GS
1:02 Thoughts on Twins prospect Kirloff? He's raking. Mid-season promotion or do you wait because it's his first season back?

 

Keith Law
1:03 The argument for promoting him is that he's 20, and not young for low-A (not old, either). You might want to challenge him with high-A competition before the summer is out.

 

 

Adam
1:11 Who wins a foot race between Buxton and Acuna???

 

Keith Law
1:11 Buxton is the fastest player in the majors.

[Mike Sixel]

Tom
2:46 Is BYRON BUXTON a bust?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
2:46 No, you're impatient

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-may-fin/

[gunnarthor]

 

Tom
2:46 Is BYRON BUXTON a bust?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
2:46 No, you're impatient

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-may-fin/

I suspect that's probably the viewpoint of most in baseball. I sure hope he's right.

[jkcarew]

THE Average Sports Fan

12:13 Are we seeing the beginning of Joey Votto slowly becoming Joe Mauer?

 

Jay Jaffe

12:16 As I noted earlier today, in the comments to my Anthony Rizzo piece (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/anthony-rizzos-dramatic-turnaround/), since I wrote about Votto on April 20 (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-reds-slump-has-extended-to-joey-vot...), he’s posted a 168 wRC+, three points ahead of last year, and he's up to 132 overall. I wouldn't worry too much about the performance aspect of it.

As for the way the fan base has been conditioned to resent high-salaried players on teams that cry poor — something that we've seen all too much of in the case of Mauer — ugh. Those are the real losers, the ones who can't appreciate greatness even if the great player is stuck in a lousy situation.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-5-31-18/

Interesting question. Cincinnati fans maybe lamenting the beginning of Votto's decline. His SLG is down to .430 and his wRC+ down to 132. But, it never ceases to amaze me the analysts that live in the past with regard to Mauer's greatness...or maybe confuse his goodness of recent years with the greatness of his early years. Mauer has 2 full seasons since the 2009 mvp year that would match what Votto is doing this year. And since the move to 1B, Mauer has 5.9 WAR and Votto 21.6. The only thing these two have had in common is the high OBP and their age.

 

Thanks again.

[Mike Sixel]

Interesting question. Cincinnati fans maybe lamenting the beginning of Votto's decline. His SLG is down to .430 and his wRC+ down to 132. But, it never ceases to amaze me the analysts that live in the past with regard to Mauer's greatness...or maybe confuse his goodness of recent years with the greatness of his early years. Mauer has 2 full seasons since the 2009 mvp year that would match what Votto is doing this year. And since the move to 1B, Mauer has 5.9 WAR and Votto 21.6. The only thing these two have had in common is the high OBP and their age.

 

Thanks again.

What most national writers I read think they have in common is a fan base that doesn't like them as much as they should.

[nicksaviking]

The Athletic just published an article by Eno Saris rating what he thought were the best curveballs in the game, using this methodology:

 

 

Berrios, Gibson, and Odorizzi placed 5, 12, and 13 on the list. Surprising, but not really.

 

https://theathletic.com/372909/2018/05/30/best-pitches-of-2018-who-has-the-best-curveball-in-baseball/

One of the league's best curveballs and one of the league's best sliders yet he farted around with a wimpy sinker as his primary pitch for half a decade. It's too bad for both him and the team he didn't figure it out sooner.

[yarnivek1972]

One of the league's best curveballs and one of the league's best sliders yet he farted around with a wimpy sinker as his primary pitch for half a decade. It's too bad for both him and the team he didn't figure it out sooner.

Probably not a coincidence that there is a different pitching coach in place - Gibson’s third at the MLB level.

[Mike Sixel]

David

2:34 What do you make of the Twins? Think they should be buyers and can compete with the Indians?

 

 

Dan Szymborski

2:34 Depends where they realistically are in July. I dont' think they should be aggressive right now

[Squirrel]

 

David
2:34 What do you make of the Twins? Think they should be buyers and can compete with the Indians?


Dan Szymborski
2:34 Depends where they realistically are in July. I dont' think they should be aggressive right now

I concur with Dan.

[Mike Sixel]

Aaron: Is Miguel Sano going to eat his way out of ever signing a deal longer than 1 year?

1:01

Jay Jaffe: Right now it looks like he’s not-hitting his way out of an extension (84 wRC+) though it’s fair to wonder how much that shin injury has affected him.

[Thrylos]

 

What most national writers I read think they have in common is a fan base that doesn't like them as much as they should.

 

Correct, and a fan base that has not got any titles since 1991 for the Twins and 1990 for the Reds, so the frustration level is pretty high... 

[Thrylos]

 

One of the league's best curveballs and one of the league's best sliders yet he farted around with a wimpy sinker as his primary pitch for half a decade. It's too bad for both him and the team his pitching coaches insisted he did so

 

FTFY

[Mike Sixel]

Brandon Nimmo
12:09 Ohtani the Pitcher might need Tommy John. What does that mean for Ohtani the Hitter?
Travis Sawchik
12:09 I don't think he can hit through a UCL repair/rehab
12:11 Angels have 31.3% playoff odds at the moment ... but those have taken a massive hit
12:12 After the Angels, Mariners have a seven-game lead over Twins. If Paxton stays healthy, I like Seattle's changes for the WC2

 

 

Frank: Is Twins prospect, Brent Rooker, someone I should target in Dynasty leagues?
12:49
Travis Sawchik: Monster college numbers and impressive pro debut last season. He has a slow start, but his bat is warming up

 

 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

Lunch Angle
2:18 Eduardo Escobar has been hitting the tar out of the ball. What do you expect from him going forward?
Dan Szymborski
2:18 I think that a lot of his play is for real, though I think we're seeing a career season.  But I wouldn't be surprised if he was a real 110 OPS+ guy now.
Maybe even better for ahwile.

 

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-6-11-18/

[Mike Sixel]

Chris

2:04 Lamonte Wade tore up AA and just got promoted. Major league regular for you?

Keith Law

2:04 Extra OF for me.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The Athletic just published an article by Eno Saris rating what he thought were the best curveballs in the game, using this methodology:

 

Berrios, Gibson, and Odorizzi placed 5, 12, and 13 on the list. Surprising, but not really.

 

https://theathletic.com/372909/2018/05/30/best-pitches-of-2018-who-has-the-best-curveball-in-baseball/

So a pythagorean triple.

[ashbury]

So a pythagorean triple.

Pythagoras Park has some strange ground rules.

[Mike Sixel]

Mike: Thoughts on Kyle Gibson as a moveable piece at the deadline? Or just the Twins retooling in general?

1:14

Jay Jaffe: Given that the Twins entirely didn’t break up the band last year when they were below .500, i’m not sure they would do so this year, and it seems to me that Gibson having finally turned into the type of starting pitcher who can miss bats — something historically in short supply on that team — I don’t see him as a guy they’d trade.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-6-14-18/

[Mike Sixel]

Austin

9:30 Alright, thoughts on Twins move to send Sano down to Single A???

Jeff Sullivan

9:31 He's made zero progress in any facet. I wouldn't read too much into the Single-A part -- I think they just want Sano to have access to the facilities at that location. Might as well be Double-A or even Triple-A. What matters is the demotion, and I think it was time to try to give Sano a wake-up call. I'm pleased to hear he's open-minded about it

[Mike Sixel]

GP
10:05 Thoughts on Miguel Sano's demotion to High-A? Should more teams send struggling players to the affiliate that plays at their Spring Training facility instead of Triple-A? The Twins front office cited the resources available to help him work through his struggles there.
Jeff Sullivan
10:06 Depends on the player and depends on the struggles. If you're just like trying to get some pitcher's changeup better, Triple-A is fine. You make him throw it 40% of the time. You see how it does against high-level opponents. If you're doing something more dramatic, however, or attempting to make a mechanical overhaul, then you want to reduce pressure as much as possible

 

Mike sixel
10:07 Sano to A ball. Buxton can't hit. Kepler? What is going on in Minnesota?
Jeff Sullivan
10:07 Evidence is mounting that Buxton just isn't a good hitter
10:08 Kepler is what he is. He's okay. Rosario and Escobar are the real positive surprises
Rosario has the same wRC+ as Joey Votto! Escobar has the same wRC+ as Jose Altuve!

 

Guest
10:23 What do you think about the Twins trading Kyle Gibson (who is having a great year)? Likely to happen? Do you think they retool in general? They're 6 GB and have to jump 5/6 teams for the WC at this point
Jeff Sullivan
10:24 I don't think they'll do it -- even if 2018 is mostly shot, they have another opening in 2019, and the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers will still be bad
And the Indians will lose Andrew Miller

 

Anthony
11:07 How much optimism do you have that Sano bounces back?
Jeff Sullivan
11:08 He'll be back in the majors, but I don't think he's going to be a star anymore

[Mike Sixel]

I try hard not comment when posting.....still trying....hahahahahaha.

 

Coach K
12:11 Twins window is now... never a better opportunity. Now Carrasco of tribe is out. Would a fair deal be Buxton for Machado, Gausman or Bundy, Cisco and Britton (3-1trade) be good for both? If Buxton comes back limping and not hitting his weight, many teams with questions about him will have their answer. To me Twins need to get luggage out for Buxton. He is what brings back enough to make pennant run. Your thoughts please.

 

Travis Sawchik
12:12 There's zero chance of something like this happening. And since Buxton has already acquired a decent amount of service time, I'm not sure he's all that valuable to the Orioles.

 

Bill
12:31 Alex Kirilloff looking great. does 60 game power seem reachable?
Travis Sawchik
12:31 He's one of the biggest first-half prospect risers

 

Joe
12:57 Sano for Gregory Polanco.  Who says no?  What's the strategy w/ Polanco in Pittsburgh?
Travis Sawchik
12:57 Twins say no, I would guess

[Vanimal46]

Coach K spiked his coffee with whiskey this morning I see...