Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Twins worked with him for at least two years on using his 4 seam more and why he should use his 4 seam more (spin rate & spin AXIS).

Welcome back, Jack!

 

What are you up to these days?

[Mike Sixel]

 

 

This article is fascinating and depressing...
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-data-transformed-the-angels-rule-5-pick/

The Twins worked with him for at least two years on using his 4 seam more and why he should use his 4 seam more (spin rate & spin AXIS).

Great. Welcome back. It's kind of hard to tell that from the article, thanks for the inside knowledge. Hope all is well with you and yours.

[old nurse]

 

They'll try at least. With Pittsburgh looking like a rebuild situation, they certainly are more likely to let him struggle at the majors and keep him be it this summer or next year.

 

At least the Angels are trying to win now. Hopefully they'll feel Bard is too much of a liability to trust on a team trying to win it all. I'd think the odds of getting Bard back are probably much higher than Burdi's regardless of how either is pitching (or not pitching).

The timetable was to have him throwing off the mound starting about now.  Each individual has a timetable that s different but the best guess for Burdi was around All Star break to be ready for mlb games. The article talked about how mechanics caused the injury and Burdi changing his delivery.  The half million dollar question is did his mechanics cause the pitches to be what they were and what kind of pitcher will he be with changed mechanics.  

[Mike Sixel]

Dubya

2:12 What are your thoughts on the Twins signing Logan Morrison instead of another starting pitcher?

Keith Law

2:12 Solid value for them, gives them OBP they could use. Not sure it's "instead" given the cost.

[Thrylos]

 

Thoughts are that the Twins might get both Burdi and Bard back, which complicates already overflowing AAA/AA pitching rosters.

 

They might have to wait a couple of months since the Pirates put Burdi on the 60-day DL

[Mike Sixel]

After signing Morrison it looks like Vargas is on his way out in MN. Does he have any trade value?

 

 

Keith Law

2:46 Don't think so. Up and down guy at best.

 

Tye

2:49 Why are you so low on Gonsalves? Is his ceiling more of a 4/5? Will he be better than replacement level?

Keith Law

2:50 How am I low on him? He's a lefty with no average breaking ball and fringe-average velocity. I don't think he's more than a 4.

 

Smith

2:59 What do you expect from Brent Rooker this season? What level should he begin at, how soon do you think he will be in Minneapolis?

 

Keith Law

2:59 Start in high-A, and bump him to double-A if he rakes there again. Older guy so get him moving. So far, very good with him.

[jimmer]

TJ: Mauer HOF? Nearly decade as top catcher, MVP but underrated as his top skill is on-base. Another 3 years- 3 WAR players. Gwynn is in and I argue given Mauer time at catcher, obp and defensive skills should be recognized

 

Jay Jaffe: I think Mauer gets in, though a Twins blogger recently joked that it might be the first time a team’s fan base works to thwart such an effort. Wrote about his case here in November https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/11/02/world-series-playoff-hall-fame-proje…

 

Nap: Which of these guys make the HOF: Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Joe Mauer, Dustin Pedroia, Felix Hernandez, David Price

Jay Jaffe: I’d say Mauer and Pedroia are the most likely. I think Rollins is a committee type but not a great one. I worry about Utley. Don’t think either Price or Felix is going there unless they start laying down Cy-caliber seasons again.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-3-1-18/

 

[Vanimal46]

Thoughts on Jay Jaffe? I haven't read his prior work before.

[Mike Sixel]

Rodney

9:06 How long do you think I can keep my job!

 

 

Jeff Sullivan

9:07 My hunch is that Rodney keeps the job all season, with maybe a week or two spent "figuring it out" in a low-leverage role. To Rodney's credit, he still throws super hard, and although he's wild he's never been easy to hit

I hate the experience of watching Fernando Rodney close, but the results aren't so bad from a distance!

 

Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat -- 3/2/18

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JotCast

Jeff Sullivan

9:04 Hello friends

9:05 Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Dan

9:05 Do you see new signee Danny Valencia getting playing time in Baltimore?

Jeff Sullivan

9:05 Surprisingly yes. Wouldn't be shocked to see him open as a platoon partner for Colby Rasmus

In the outfield

In the major leagues

F. Rodney

9:06 How long do you think I can keep my job!

Jeff Sullivan

9:07 My hunch is that Rodney keeps the job all season, with maybe a week or two spent "figuring it out" in a low-leverage role. To Rodney's credit, he still throws super hard, and although he's wild he's never been easy to hit

I hate the experience of watching Fernando Rodney close, but the results aren't so bad from a distance!

Jimmy

9:08 How about those Blue Jays?

Jeff Sullivan

9:08 Is this a reference to spring training standings

Is this a reference to spring training standings after seven games

A big dumb idiot

9:08 Like you, I was a curious how the horrible AL Central would impact the Twins projection. So, using depth charts projections and accounting for strength of schedule (weighted records of all opponents) here are the projected win totals for AL WC contenders: Jays: 86.2 Twins: 83.8 Angels: 82.2

Jeff Sullivan

9:09 Feels about right. As soon as we launch our 2018 playoff-odds page, I'll have a post up that uses our own schedule-adjustment math

GP

9:11 On EW the other day you mentioned that Byron Buxton had started to figure things out over the second half but didn't seem that impressed with Jorge Polanco. Looking at his splits, he had virtually the same wRC+ (1st half, 2nd half and overall) as Buxton but with better plate discipline. He was also batting third pretty consistently in the second half. Should we be talking about Polanco more as a breakout candidate, at least offensively?

Jeff Sullivan

9:12 Sorry for that delay. Allow me to share with you an incredible split

9:13 Polanco, first three months: .280 wOBA

Polanco, last three months: .339 wOBA

Polanco, first three months: .276 expected wOBA

Polanco, last three months: .279 expected wOBA

9:14 I don't mean to suggest we should always get all tied up in xwOBA over all else, but I don't actually see meaningful evidence of improvement in here

9:15 For the sake of comparison, over the same time spans, Byron Buxton went from .254 to .300

[jkcarew]

 

9:13 Polanco, first three months: .280 wOBA
Polanco, last three months: .339 wOBA
Polanco, first three months: .276 expected wOBA
Polanco, last three months: .279 expected wOBA

I guess expected wOBA doesn't account for 10 2nd-half balls landing on the other side of the fence...if they weren't expected.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I guess expected wOBA doesn't account for 10 2nd-half balls landing on the other side of the fence...if they weren't expected.

Expected wOBA is based on exit velocity and launch angle. So it could be Polanco's HR weren't likely HR off the bat...

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-woba

[jkcarew]

 

Expected wOBA is based on exit velocity and launch angle. So it could be Polanco's HR weren't likely HR off the bat...

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-woba

Thanks.  Wind was blowing out just for Polanco in Aug/Sept.  That really IS lucky!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Thanks.  Wind was blowing out just for Polanco in Aug/Sept.  That really IS lucky!

It's not just wind -- there's a lot of ways to hit a HR, in terms of launch angle and exit velocity. Some combinations are more repeatable than others.

[clutterheart]

 

[bard] “I did a bunch of reading online and started wondering if I should be pitching up in the zone. The [Twins] had never told me what my spin rate was. I ended up going to a video guy of ours on my own, a guy younger than me, and asked, ‘Do you have the data, the small sample size of it?

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-data-transformed-the-angels-rule-5-pick/

 

The Twins worked with him for at least two years on using his 4 seam more and why he should use his 4 seam more (spin rate & spin AXIS).

 

 

Wonder why a player wouldn't be truthful here.  is he trying to burn bridges with the Twins so he stays with the Angels?  

 

[Vanimal46]

Wonder why a player wouldn't be truthful here. is he trying to burn bridges with the Twins so he stays with the Angels?

It seems like he's saying "Huh, I never saw that email." For us corporate monkeys that mess up in the office.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Wonder why a player wouldn't be truthful here.  is he trying to burn bridges with the Twins so he stays with the Angels?  

I wouldn't necessarily say he's being untruthful. Bard is clearly talking in the past tense -- maybe the first time he saw his spin rate data, it was before that data was presented to him by the Twins. So both his statement and Goin's could be accurate.

[jkcarew]

 

It's not just wind -- there's a lot of ways to hit a HR, in terms of launch angle and exit velocity. Some combinations are more repeatable than others.

I think it's highly questionable to use expected wOBA to assess a player with Polanco's profile...that is to say someone who actually has the willingness and/or ability to put a quality 2-strike pitch in play.  Expected wOBA penalizes those that put the ball in play...those that are aggressive early in the count and/or take the approach (or have the ability) to put the ball in play with two strikes.  A player with this profile, will always have many more instances of soft contact that damages xwOBA...moves in xwOBA for this profile will be relatively muted...even as that player improves his ability to drive pitcher's mistakes.

 

So to me, there is no 'bad' news in Polanco's flat second-half xwOBA.  Buxton, on the other hand, raised his second-half xwOBA while lowering his strike-out rate.  I'm on-board there...very encouraging!

[jimmer]

 

Thoughts on Jay Jaffe? I haven't read his prior work before.

He's really good.  And he's the one who created JAWS. JAWS is a sabermetric baseball statistic developed to evaluate the strength of a player's career and merit for induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Created by averaging a player's career WAR with their 7-year peak WAR, its "stated goal is to improve the Hall of Fame's standards, or at least to maintain them rather than erode them, by admitting players who are at least as good as the average Hall of Famer at the position, using a means via which longevity isn't the sole determinant of worthiness

[gunnarthor]

 

Thoughts on Jay Jaffe? I haven't read his prior work before.

Eh. He's pretty much just another stat guy but a little bit fuller of himself. He won't tell you anything that Gleeman or Cameron wouldn't. Not sure JAWS is quite the hit that Jimmer does but whatever. He's not horrible but he's sorta blah as these guys go. I dunno. Fangraphs seems the right fit for him.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

We're told Pressly, Mejia, and now Bard and Gonsalves, all have elite spin rates.

 

Not sure how excited I'm supposed to be about spin rates anymore.

[Otto von Ballpark]

We're told Pressly, Mejia, and now Bard and Gonsalves, all have elite spin rates.

 

Not sure how excited I'm supposed to be about spin rates anymore.

Does it feel like spin rate is just the latest media / front office "spin"?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Eh. He's pretty much just another stat guy but a little bit fuller of himself. He won't tell you anything that Gleeman or Cameron wouldn't. Not sure JAWS is quite the hit that Jimmer does but whatever. He's not horrible but he's sorta blah as these guys go. I dunno. Fangraphs seems the right fit for him.

Dunno man, JAWS is a pretty rad stat that tackles something no one else really tried to do because it’s post-career based. I like it a lot.

[Dman]

 

After signing Morrison it looks like Vargas is on his way out in MN. Does he have any trade value?


Keith Law
2:46 Don't think so. Up and down guy at best.

Tye
2:49 Why are you so low on Gonsalves? Is his ceiling more of a 4/5? Will he be better than replacement level?
Keith Law
2:50 How am I low on him? He's a lefty with no average breaking ball and fringe-average velocity. I don't think he's more than a 4.

Smith
2:59 What do you expect from Brent Rooker this season? What level should he begin at, how soon do you think he will be in Minneapolis?

Keith Law
2:59 Start in high-A, and bump him to double-A if he rakes there again. Older guy so get him moving. So far, very good with him.

 

After watching Gonsalves on MLBtv I am starting to agree with K Law.  It seemed like it took forever for the ball to get to the plate and the ball didn't seem to have a ton of movement to me.  For as troubling as it looked he only gave up one run as he seems to have a way of squeaking out of trouble but it does make me wonder if he is just another crafty lefty.  

 

I have always loved following the guy and his box scores typically look really good but for the first time I am really questioning if he can be more than a five.   I hope I am wrong.

 

Littell has some serious movement on his pitches.  The ball was bending all over the place.  I wonder why scouts only see him as a four or five.  A few MPH on the fastball makes that much difference?  Will be interesting to see how things turn out for him.

[jimmer]

 

After watching Gonsalves on MLBtv I am starting to agree with K Law.  It seemed like it took forever for the ball to get to the plate and the ball didn't seem to have a ton of movement to me.  For as troubling as it looked he only gave up one run as he seems to have a way of squeaking out of trouble but it does make me wonder if he is just another crafty lefty.  

 

I have always loved following the guy and his box scores typically look really good but for the first time I am really questioning if he can be more than a five.   I hope I am wrong.

 

Littell has some serious movement on his pitches.  The ball was bending all over the place.  I wonder why scouts only see him as a four or five.  A few MPH on the fastball makes that much difference?  Will be interesting to see how things turn out for him.

Yeah, I'm watching Gonsalves now and he's having a hard time hitting his spots.  In fact he's all over the place.  Doesn't seem to have much get people out stuff.

[gunnarthor]

Fangraphs has an article on Buxton's base running - https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/byron-buxton-just-missed-a-perfect-season/

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

In the same vein, MLB had an article recently about Buxton's base stealing

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/its-tough-to-slow-twins-byron-buxton-down/c-266538192

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

In the same vein, MLB had an article recently about Buxton's base stealing

https://www.mlb.com/news/its-tough-to-slow-twins-byron-buxton-down/c-266538192

"Five times in 2017, a double was hit with Buxton on first. He scored all five times."

 

*impressed whistle*

 

"Out of the 16 times a single was hit with Buxton on second, he scored on 13 of them."

 

*louder impressed whistle*

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Fangraphs has an article on Buxton's base running - https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/byron-buxton-just-missed-a-perfect-season/

"Relative to our own BsR, this is maybe a little sloppy, but it gets the right point across. Buxton just ranked 140th in plate appearances, but he also ranked 17th in extra bases. Meanwhile, he was out just two times. While Dee Gordon, for example, took 50 more bases, he also made 18 more outs. Billy Hamilton took 30 more bases, but he also made 16 more outs."

 

Dammmmmmmnnnnnnnn. Based on that "sloppy" analysis, Buxton was out once from a stolen base he overslid, and once from taking an extra base in a situation where every human being on the planet would have been out.

 

Suck on that, Billy "fastest man in baseball" Hamilton.

[Oxtung]

 

In the same vein, MLB had an article recently about Buxton's base stealing

https://www.mlb.com/news/its-tough-to-slow-twins-byron-buxton-down/c-266538192

I am maybe most impressed that he chose not to steal 3rd base all season. Good for him to understand that when you can score from 2nd on a single that consistently it isn't worth risking an out at 3rd. There is no advantage. Which boggles my mind, too. How can he score from 2nd that consistently on singles....

[Mike Sixel]

I am maybe most impressed that he chose not to steal 3rd base all season. Good for him to understand that when you can score from 2nd on a single that consistently it isn't worth risking an out at 3rd. There is no advantage. Which boggles my mind, too. How can he score from 2nd that consistently on singles....

Except you can score from third in a fly ball or grounds out.... So I would argue there are times to steal third. Unless I misread you post, which is possible.