Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Like I said, I certainly don't love Cobb, but the FO must either be so down on him or anybody else left, that the difference between what they're willing to offer and what the others will accept isn't worth the stability it would provide, or they're frugal to the point of harming the team. 

This is basically my point and I'm not sure any of us have a good answer. I doubt the front office is *that* frugal, as they pursued Darvish.

 

But where do they land on a reasonable deal for Cobb/Lynn? Dunno. Even though I have mild interest in Cobb and little in Lynn, I'd have a hard time walking away from either one if a 3/$45m offer might get the job done. They might go for that over another team offering something like 4/$50-55m.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think one thing is clear to me that seems like an elephant in the room... Minnesota is not a popular destination for young men from warm climates. Of course we all think that the Twin Cities or Minnesota is great, but it doesn't have a global or even national reputation as a fun place to hang out. If you are from Florida or California, or especially the Caribbean or South America, would you want to go to a small market team where all you know is the time you were there in April and it was 50 degrees? No, probably not. Don't underestimate the lack of desire to spend your thirties in Minneapolis, especially if you are from Miami, Santo Domingo or Tokyo.

I suspect the Darvish situation played out like this. Twins reach out to Yu, and he is up front about how he would prefer not to come to Minnesota, but he doesn't have any offers from his preferred destinations yet (LA, Texas) Ultimately, those offers never come, the only real option for him is Chicago, but the Twins slipped him an offer just to think about in case nothing better comes along.

So, yeah, they were "in on" Yu all off season, but they never actually had a chance. Now, the remaining top end pitchers I fear aren't asking for the widely circulated contract demands, but are asking for a premium to come to Minnesota. If my interpretation is correct, then by all means, trade away.

Addison Reed is from San Diego.

[Mr. Brooks]

1. You don't know the Twins' actual offer. It almost certainly wasn't "5/100", as I've only seen it reported as "5/100+". For all we know, the Twins' offer was beaten only by the Cubs and was ahead of all the other teams.

 

2. No, I'm not saying people don't lie in business, I'm saying I don't walk around accusing people of lying with absolutely no evidence to back up my claim.

1. It's been reported as "just over 20m AAV."

 

2. Fair enough, though I'd present it as an alternate theory, not an accusation.

I made a lengthy post in another thread where I explained that far more likely than the above described theory is the possibility that the Twins entered FA genuinely committed to a legitimate pursuit of Darvish, but with the slow developing market, talked themselves into the idea of having their cake and eating it too- getting Darvish at a bargain price. From inside their bubble (I likened it to a frenzied gambler, sure that he'd found a can't miss underdog), they didn't realize they were making an offer that had no real chance of succeeding.

 

Either way the net result is that they made an offer with no reasonable chance of success.

I think Darvish made it clear to teams that he wanted a 6th year and/or an early opt out, and I think he was willing to wait as long as he had to to get it, even if that went into the regular season. If that's the case, it doesn't really matter if the Twins offer was 2nd best or 15th best, sometimes there are minimum requirements to have your offer considered.

[Otto von Ballpark]

You don't know the Twins' actual offer. It almost certainly wasn't "5/100", as I've only seen it reported as "5/100+". For all we know, the Twins' offer was beaten only by the Cubs and was ahead of all the other teams.

Berardino: "reportedly refusing to go beyond five years at around $20 million per season"

 

https://www.twincities.com/2018/02/13/starting-nine-answering-twins-biggest-questions-as-spring-training-begins/amp/

[amjgt]

Isn’t this thread about “Fangraphs and other national writers?”

[Squirrel]

Isn’t this thread about “Fangraphs and other national writers?”

Moderator warning: Yes, this thread is here to post articles on the Twins from Fangraphs or other national publications ... so not local newspapers, either. Two or three pages ago a question was posted to a fangraphs writer regarding the Twins interest in Cobb or Lynn and it was answered and conversation started which was fine until it morphed into another Darvish non-signing rehash. There are several other threads for that. Either move the discussion to one of those threads or just simply move on from it. Please keep this thread for its intended purpose, which is clearly stated in the title.

[bird]

 

As we learned with the M and M boys, injuries happen. Everyone they are relying on is healthy, except ESAN.... And he's only out one month. Who knows how that will look next year? Also, the Yankees and dodgers will have reset their cap situation. And, there aren't many great pitchers available next year. They'll have to trade prospects. Oh, and will Dozier be ok with this off-season if it goes South, and they passed on better options?

 

The only thing I'd say about this is that windows work both ways, and relying on a window to either open or close has its flaws. This doesn't excuse the FO for failing to acquire a front line starter, but THAT window can also be wide open or not, as you're sort of suggesting about next year.

 

We'll have to try to be entertained watching this "alternative solution" unfold. I'm skeptical about all this "Pitcher Whisperer" stuff being thrown out there about Falvey, but if they can help one or two guys "fix" themselves, they have injury luck, and the core continues to improve, maybe the season will be pretty fun.

[amjgt]

Yes, this thread is here to post articles on the Twins from Fangraphs or other national publications ... so not local newspapers, either. Two or three pages ago a question was posted to a fangraphs writer regarding the Twins interest in Cobb or Lynn and it was answered and conversation started which was fine until it morphed into another Darvish non-signing rehash. There are several other threads for that. Either move the discussion to one of those threads or just simply move on from it. Please keep this thread for its intended purpose, which is clearly stated in the title.

I wasn’t responding to the local link, per se... more the previous 25 posts

[Squirrel]

I wasn’t responding to the local link, per se... more the previous 25 posts

And I was responding to all of it.

[bird]

 

Are you suggesting people don't sometimes lie or deceive? Especially in business?

 

I'd suggest you weren't lied to, and if you feel deceived, it's ostensibly self-deception. I'd also suggest that most people I know don't lie or deceive. Especially in business. Capitalism doesn't inherently trigger dishonesty. Avarice and greed do.

[terrydactyls]

Addison Reed is from San Diego.

There is always an exception to the rule.

[TheLeviathan]

Yet, that is your very claim - that Falvey is ideologically motivated by concepts such as "value" and "sustainability" that lead him to accept a reduced number of wins per year than he would achieve by spending more money (of course, in reality he has no authority to do this, but you seemingly believe otherwise).

 

I'm going to keep this simple because the tone of your post makes it clear this is fruitless and I only respond because I think it circles back to the Lynn/Cobb value comments of others earlier.

 

Falvey may not believe that FA investments lead to more wins per year over the longer view.  It may result in more immediate wins, but it may result in less wins over a 10 year frame.  Current spending that effects long term budget constraints may be a trade off he's not willing to make.  He may be right, he may be wrong. 

 

As tight as the Pohlads keep the purse strings, I don't think we're spending to our limit right now.  Which defies the idea you're suggesting that it is "irrational" to think they may not spend every red cent they have available.  I think that's literally the case right now.  And I think the reason for that is twofold: Ownership is tight with money and the FO doesn't want to hurt future financial flexibility with large commitments now.  (Which, again, ownership probably really likes)

[dbminn]

Jeff Zimmerman at Fangraphs has posted an interesting article about pitch mix and effectiveness. The article includes analyses of both Tyler Duffey and Anibal Sanchez. He suggests Sanchez drop his sinker and curveball, while Duffey should drop the 2-seam FB. 

 

The article is based on a metric called pERA, which dissects each pitch within a player's repertoire by average exit velo, swinging strike rate, GB% and pop ups. He uses the info to recommend changes in pitch usage. He also grades each pitch on a 20-80 scale. Fun stuff if you're a stats nerd.

[Platoon]

Eh, I don’t buy that at all. Not enough of the fan base follows free agency rumors to make that effort worthwhile, plus it requires one to believe everyone else in the world is a big fat liar trying to trick you.

Or, one could look at in a different tone. One could say that they put forth an optimistic wish list, and in a manner of speaking a truthful one. Yet inside the walls of One Twins Way they suspected that the offer they would make wouldn't cut the cake. All they did was lay out a best case scenario. As an added bonus letting the idea that they were all in on Darvish didn't bother the Twins PR department one iota. I might add, it is the Twins fan base that follows free agency rumors, and they are the target audience of an "all in" proclamation. Fortunately the cynic in me has Tuesdays off, otherwise he would say it's the fan bases fault for taking a best case scenario, and turning it into one that has any real chance of succeeding.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I'm going to keep this simple because the tone of your post makes it clear this is fruitless and I only respond because I think it circles back to the Lynn/Cobb value comments of others earlier.

 

Falvey may not believe that FA investments lead to more wins per year over the longer view.  It may result in more immediate wins, but it may result in less wins over a 10 year frame.  Current spending that effects long term budget constraints may be a trade off he's not willing to make.  He may be right, he may be wrong. 

 

As tight as the Pohlads keep the purse strings, I don't think we're spending to our limit right now.  Which defies the idea you're suggesting that it is "irrational" to think they may not spend every red cent they have available.  I think that's literally the case right now.  And I think the reason for that is twofold: Ownership is tight with money and the FO doesn't want to hurt future financial flexibility with large commitments now.  (Which, again, ownership probably really likes)

 

I don't see how you can square this with the fact that the Twins have no payroll commitments beyond 2019. 

[Mike Sixel]

Jeff Zimmerman at Fangraphs has posted an interesting article about pitch mix and effectiveness. The article includes analyses of both Tyler Duffey and Anibal Sanchez. He suggests Sanchez drop his sinker and curveball, while Duffey should drop the 2-seam FB.

 

The article is based on a metric called pERA, which dissects each pitch within a player's repertoire by average exit velo, swinging strike rate, GB% and pop ups. He uses the info to recommend changes in pitch usage. He also grades each pitch on a 20-80 scale. Fun stuff if you're a stats nerd.

Sanchez drops two pitches and is still a starter?

[Mike Sixel]

In going to ask a favor..... Let's keep the long discussions out of here. Previously people have asked us for this to mostly be a news aggregator thread. Thanks.

[nicksaviking]

 

Sanchez drops two pitches and is still a starter?

 

Perhaps better advice would be for him to drop four pitches and become a retiree.

[ashbury]

Perhaps better advice would be for him to drop four pitches and become a retiree.

[dbminn]

 

Sanchez drops two pitches and is still a starter?

 

Yeah, FG shows him with six​ freaking pitches. Whether he can be a serviceable starter with any number is debatable. 

[Mike Sixel]

Yeah, FG shows him with six​ freaking pitches. Whether he can be a serviceable starter with any number is debatable.

Cool article! Thanks

[KirbyDome89]

 

This is basically my point and I'm not sure any of us have a good answer. I doubt the front office is *that* frugal, as they pursued Darvish.

 

But where do they land on a reasonable deal for Cobb/Lynn? Dunno. Even though I have mild interest in Cobb and little in Lynn, I'd have a hard time walking away from either one if a 3/$45m offer might get the job done. They might go for that over another team offering something like 4/$50-55m.

The Twins walking away from 3/$45 at this point would be irresponsible. Four years isn't ideal but they could front load it similar to what Boston just did (not a perfect comp, I know,) and not really have to worry about the last year or two. Given the current FA market you almost have to think they just don't like anybody left. 

[PseudoSABR]

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If the Twins come out of this offseason with Cobb/Lynn, Odorizzi, Reed, Rodney, Pineda, and Duke... that's an amazing offseason.

 

Sure, you missed out on Darvish, which kinda sucks, but that's a lot of pitching for not much money.

[Mike Sixel]

If the Twins come out of this offseason with Cobb/Lynn, Odorizzi, Reed, Rodney, Pineda, and Duke... that's an amazing offseason.

 

Sure, you missed out on Darvish, which kinda sucks, but that's a lot of pitching for not much money.

It would be unprecedented, I'd think.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It would be unprecedented, I'd think.

I hope ownership doesn't pump the brakes on getting one of those guys. Sure, neither one impresses me that much but I don't think it takes more than $50m to get either one given the market right now. At that point, you can pretty easily justify letting Santana, who is much older than either of them, walk after the season. Couple that with Mauer coming off the books and you still have room to add more next season without bumping payroll further.

 

I hope the front office likes either one of them enough to competitively bid for their services.

[gunnarthor]

Twins are at 112m payroll for this year. Lynn or Cobb would push us above 125. I'd be very surprised if that happened. But I agree that adding Lynn would re-evaluate the offseason a lot.

[Mike Sixel]

Guest: Is Palacios as light a return for Odorizzi as is commonly believed?

12:49

Eric A Longenhagen: If you think Odorizzi is a 2 WAR guy moving forward, it’s a little light in a vacuum.

12:49

Eric A Longenhagen: Palacios is a 40 FV guy, Odorizzi is a 45 or 50 if he bounces back, but I doubt TB had trade leverage in a market full of FA pitchers who haven’t signed.

[nicksaviking]

I think it shouldn't fail to be recognized that for all of our angst about payroll and missing out on free agents, it could be much, much worse. 

 

Holy hell, can anyone imagine what it would be like if we were TB fans right now where the team is making no effort to re-sign Cobb or Logan Morrison, cut a guy who had a .815 OPS last year, traded Odorizzi for a song and the face of their franchise for a couple of guys who few are excited about any longer?

[Han Joelo]

 

Guest: Is Palacios as light a return for Odorizzi as is commonly believed?
12:49
Eric A Longenhagen: If you think Odorizzi is a 2 WAR guy moving forward, it’s a little light in a vacuum.
12:49
Eric A Longenhagen: Palacios is a 40 FV guy, Odorizzi is a 45 or 50 if he bounces back, but I doubt TB had trade leverage in a market full of FA pitchers who haven’t signed.

This is the type of post I generally expect to see when clicking on this thread.  Thanks.  This is kind of the same thing as saying "why trade for Archer when you can just sign Darvish."  Why give up even Palacios when you can just sign Tillman, or whomever.