Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[Squirrel]

Dave Cameron is leaving Fangraphs to '...begin a new adventure,helping build out a Research and Development department for the San Diego Padres.'

Yeah. He’ll be missed. Being discussed here as well:

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/27809-2017-18-non-twins-mlb-off-season-transactions-thread/?p=705643

[GP830]

 

Matt
12:34 Anything pointing to a Kepler breakout this year?


Eno Sarris
12:35 Not really. He doesn't hit the ball that hard, and his homers are all pulled straight down the line. He's 24, so I guess age says the arrow is pointing up.

I've cooled on Kepler a bit-- I think a veteran OF could help solidify the position, and he could be enticing tradebait. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Twins ZiPS projections were posted the other day: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/. Some interesting numbers, especially for the starting rotation. And I think Buxton will outperform his projected WAR total.

They are projecting Buxton gets caught stealing twice. Crazy town.

[amjgt]

 

They are projecting Buxton gets caught stealing twice. Crazy town.

 

Yeah... he was due for a regression to the mean

[amjgt]

One of the guys on the MLB Pipeline podcast picked Graterol as his prospect that might shoot up the prospect lists the most this season.

[Tom Froemming]

I reworked an article I wrote for Twins Daily to appeal to a broader audience and submitted it to the Community Research section over at FanGraphs a few weeks ago. I was assuming it wasn't up to snuff, but they published it yesterday. Here it is if you're interested: On Jake Arrieta, Aaron Slegers, and Extreme Release Points

[Mike Sixel]

I reworked an article I wrote for Twins Daily to appeal to a broader audience and submitted it to the Community Research section over at FanGraphs a few weeks ago. I was assuming it wasn't up to snuff, but they published it yesterday. Here it is if you're interested: On Jake Arrieta, Aaron Slegers, and Extreme Release Points

Congrats!

[Dantes929]

 

They are projecting Buxton gets caught stealing twice. Crazy town.

 

Yeah... he was due for a regression to the mean

They figure he will slide past the bag once and that he will try to steal 2nd and 3rd on the same pitch a couple times and get caught once when Buxton is on his way to second and the catcher throws to 3rd.

[dbminn]

Travis Sawchick at Fangraphs just published an article on the Twins and 2018 projections. He encourages the Twins to take the opportunity presented and get out of "No Man's Land".

[nicksaviking]

 

Travis Sawchick at Fangraphs just published an article on the Twins and 2018 projections. He encourages the Twins to take the opportunity presented and get out of "No Man's Land".

 

Yup, poop or get off the pot, no more fence sitting in these parts thank you very much. Either make the moves that can win you a WS in the next couple of years, or start making the moves you'll need to win a WS in five years.

 

I think just about everyone around here would prefer it's the first option.

[ashbury]

poop or get off the pot, no more fence sitting

You have a gift for possibly uncomfortable metaphors.

[Squirrel]

 

You have a gift for possibly uncomfortable metaphors.

I'm thinking it's more that he's a parent in the midst of potty training.

[nicksaviking]

I'm thinking it's more that he's a parent in the midst of potty training.

I'm between ages; the youngest is six months, the next oldest is five years. The vernacular appears to have stuck though. Kind of like my dad bod, I fear some things are irrevocably changed.

[dbminn]

An article by Matthew Trueblood at Baseball Prospectus on hitters who make the most consistent contact on pitches down the middle of the plate. He eventually focuses in on Jorge Polanco. 

[Mike Sixel]

The final boss: Number of days Fernando Rodney is the closer?

12:36

 

 

Travis Sawchik: If the Twins want to maximize their best RPs in leverage situations … then maybe the entire season

 

tacopocket: Wasn’t that Reed contract REALLY good? How did it happen? Shouldn’t there have been 5+ teams willing to beat that deal (cardinals, nationals, etc..). Even non contenders could’ve signed him and then dealt him for prospects. I was shocked at the deal – especially after seeing that wade davis deal.

12:38

 

 

Travis Sawchik: I like what the Twins have done with their bullpen

12:39

Travis Sawchik: They are another one of those increasingly in-the-middle teams but they are in a good division to buy as the Royals, Tigers and White Sox are going to be among the worst teams in basebal

 

Doug: If prices are really to start falling, someone like Jake Arrieta could actually make some sense for the Angels, no? Their rotation is deep but definitely fragile.

12:55

Travis Sawchik: I actually matched Arrieta with the Angels in my ESPN piece last week

12:56

Travis Sawchik: Angels should be aggressive, Twins, too

[Mike Sixel]

a litle lighter post.........

 

the real brian
12:34 Who is the best dressed front office employee in all of baseball?
Kiley McDaniel
12:34 Not front office but Twins' senior adviser Deron Johnson always looks sharp

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-1-24-18/

[Mike Sixel]

mike sixel
2:21 If you were the Twins, would you rather have Darvish, or Lynn/Cobb and Cain. Cain can spell Kepler vs lefties, and would be a better DH option than what they have. Also, Buxton will run into the wall again and be out for a couple weeks. thanks, (another option I don't like is both Lynn and Cobb....)

 

Dan Szymborski
2:21 Darvish
2:22 Cain's not interesting if you have Buxton
And while Lynn's probably a fine inning-eater, Darvish is a lot better

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dan-szymborski-fangraphs-chat-1-24-18/

[Mike Sixel]

WormsleyCommonGang
12:05 Eddie Rosario - you a believer in his ability to be a top LF this year in fantasy?

 

Eno Sarris
12:06 He actually added launch angle late in the season, among league leaders in added angle. Something about his approach leaves me cold, but he seems athletic and has a job...

 

 

this next one is a bit sloppy....chats....

Shawn
12:09 Which fringe contender can help themselves the most by signing one of the big FA? I'm thinking Mil or Win w/ Darvish or Arrieta

Eno Sarris
12:09 Or Minnesota, or is that "win" maybe. Yeah the Twins made it far without a staff, a pitcher would be good, but so would like three more.
I mean, yes, they did have Trevor Hildenberger.

 

Trevor Hildenberger Fan Club
1:30 TREVOR HILDENBERGER IS REALLY GOOD!!!

Eno Sarris
1:30 He is!

 

 

 

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eno-sarris-baseball-chat-1-25-18/

[Mike Sixel]

Lewis Brinson Cuddles
2:03 Sano or Devers?

Eno Sarris
2:03 Devers.

[Mike Sixel]

Bill G
1:06 Thanks as always for the top prospect lists.  Max Kepler and Nomar Mazara.  Is there still upside or what we see is what we get.  Thanks!

Keith Law
1:06 Still upside on both. I'm in.

 

twins fan
1:17 Could you give us some thoughts on Brusdar Graterol and Akill Badoo?

Keith Law
1:17 In the Twins report next week. I believe both are in their top ten (I haven't written the AL Central yet).

 

John
1:21 How close was Stephen Gonsalves to making the top 100?
Keith Law
1:21 Not close.

 

Twinzies
1:26 Given the recent Kohl Stewart football rumors, I thought now would be a good time to ask what happened to him? I know he had injuries, but he didn't seem to perform well when healthy. I've also heard about makeup/attitude issues from Twins beat writers and also wanted to know if you can expand on those makeup/attitude issues.

Keith Law
1:26 Stuff backed up, arm isn't as quick as it was in HS. He denied the rumors, BTW. Never, ever heard a bad word about his makeup.

 

Paul
2:13 Has your opinion on whether Royce Lewis can stay at shortstop changed or is it just the Twins who are optimistic about it?

Keith Law
2:14 Twins are optimistic. I try to reset judgments on players when they get into pro ball because they get help from new coaches and of course the entire game is different - wood bats, play every day, faster pace, etc.

[Mike Sixel]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/sunday-notes-twins-prospect-nick-gordon-is-rapping-more-than-just-base-hits/

[Vanimal46]

Fangraphs related. Eno Sarris is moving on. Rough winter for them with Dave Cameron and Eno no longer on staff.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/thanks-for-reading/

[Mike Sixel]

 

Fangraphs related. Eno Sarris is moving on. Rough winter for them with Dave Cameron and Eno no longer on staff.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/thanks-for-reading/

 

I've been tweeting with Eno since he announced he was sad last night......he's been very nice in recommending beer and stuff to me and my wife. He did say "for now".....so we'll see what happens. But, huge loss. If they lose Sullivan or Szym....not sure I'll go as often.

[jimmer]

 

I've been tweeting with Eno since he announced he was sad last night......he's been very nice in recommending beer and stuff to me and my wife. He did say "for now".....so we'll see what happens. But, huge loss. If they lose Sullivan or Szym....not sure I'll go as often.

Wow, the talent is dropping like flies over theere.  Losing Dave C. stinks big time and losing Eno is bad too.

[Vanimal46]

Wow, the talent is dropping like flies over theere.  Losing Dave C. stinks big time and losing Eno is bad too.

Yeah, I'm not sure who my go to read will be on that site anymore. I've read both of them religiously over the last 3+ years. Eno embraced the weird in his chats which I loved, and generally wrote about interesting topics. Dave Cameron I felt had his finger on the pulse of what's going on in baseball as a whole. I respect his opinion and learned a lot from him over the years.

[70charger]

Fangraphs chat with Kiley McDaniel yesterday: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/kiley-mcdaniel-chat-1-31-18/

 

A little skeptical of Rooker; Graterol definitely picking up steam.

 

James: How bullish is Kiley on Brent Rooker‘s bat?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Kiley was a little skeptical of it when Rooker was an amateur, but his debut was better than Kiley was expecting. Kiley thinks it’s still fringy bat, plus power, questionable defensive value but it’s something worth watching, not just some stiff 4A power guy 

 

Derek Falvey: I’m planning on going to spring training this year and watch some backfield games. Which Twins prospect should I watch?

 

Kiley McDaniel: I feel like I should be asking you this. But I would recommend BRUSDAR.

 

 

May be of interest given our relative lack of system catching. Also a shout-out to Mauer.

 

 

 

Kang: How’s about 2018 draft class? I think Will Banfield will be next Mauer and Posey.

 

Kiley McDaniel: I think you are wrong, but you are free to feel that way. Probably best HS catcher though. Joey Bart at GT and Banfield are only catchers in the top 60 for us right now, but still massaging that list. TONS of good college catching in 2019: Langliers at Baylor, Rutchman at Oregon State, Debo at NC State some other solid guys behind them.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Distracted employee
12:59 If you had to wager on one player who is going to sign a 1 year contract this off-season and prove their worth of a long-term contract for next off-season (say, for a 3+ year deal in 2019), who would you pick?
Travis Sawchik
12:59 Can I count Pineda's 2019?

[Mike Sixel]

This isn't about the Twins, but is really interesting.....

 

HE Average Sports Fan
12:12 With the changes in pitcher usage, is a guy with 4-5 starter profile less valuable than a back end of the bullpen profile?

 

Kiley McDaniel
12:13 Yes and we tried to reflect the changing value of these guys and guys that lift/don't lift the ball in the list. Mike Fiers might give you 150 good innings in the regular season, but he isn't making the postseason roster and McCullers' is going to go out there and throw a ton. Teams want more McCullers so we feel like we should rank according to that preference. Teams also seem more inclined to draft high effort high school arms with finessee issues to this end, so it's seeping into the lower levels of baseball. It's probably not just a trend.

[Mike Sixel]

Hep
3:12 Twins rotation is

 

Steve Adams
3:12 Not great!
3:13 Ha, realistically -- it's probably Ervin, Berrios, Gibson, Mejia and whoever they sign/acquire -- be it Darvish/Cobb/Lynn or someone like Odorizzi
3:14 Mejia isn't a lock, but I'd characterize him as likelier than other internal options like Slegers, Duffey, Enns or prospects like Gonsalves/Romero

 

Tommy Titan
3:24 Could the Twins pursue Zack Greinke? That would be an obvious match.

 

Steve Adams
3:25 I think there's a match there, sure, but they probably don't want to take the whole contract. If they could package what's left of the Hughes deal in there or just get the D-backs to eat a fair portion of the contract annually in exchange for some decent prospect capital, you could make the argument that they're better suited to go that route than pay Darvish for 6 years.

 

Buddy
3:31 Still saying Darvish to the Cubs. What say you?
Steve Adams
3:31 I've been stubbornly saying Twins for most of the offseason; no real reason to deviate at this point.

 

https://www.jotcast.com/chat/chat-with-mlbtrs-steve-adams-2-6-18-2983.html

[Mike Sixel]

Twins
4:22 The Twins have to take advantage this year. 3/5 AL Central teams rebuilding. Why haven't they been more aggressive?

 

Steve Adams
4:23 They're arguably the team that has been most prominently linked to the market's top free agent (Darvish)
They've signed Addison Reed and two other veteran relievers.
I wouldn't call them passive.