Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

[jimmer]

Fangraph's prospect guy Eric Longenhagen did his top 100 prospects.

 

Three Twins

 

Lewis at 38

Gordon at 77

Kirilloff at 99.

 

Atlanta has five guys higher than Lewis, six in the top 50, 10 of the top 100.

[bird]

 

Fangraph's prospect guy Eric Longenhagen did his top 100 prospects.

 

Three Twins

 

Lewis at 38

Gordon at 77

Kirilloff at 99.

 

Atlanta has five guys higher than Lewis, six in the top 50, 10 of the top 100.

 

 

Good thing Atlanta isn't in the AL Central. That's an amazing pipeline!

 

The AL CENTRAL as a group has four prospects with a higher FV than Lewis, who's a FV 55 as a first year prospect. One grade higher are the Cuban IFA Robert (FV60), Kopech (FV60) and Cleveland's exciting catching prospect Mejia (FV60). It looks like the White Sox fans might get their first whiff of Jimenez (FV65) this season, and he's up there in the same category as Buxton and Sano were at the same stage of their development. He'll be fun to watch.

 

Lewis, barring a snag in his development, has a chance to get graded as FV 60 or even FV 65 after this season.

 

Every other prospect mentioned by FG received one grade lower than Lewis at FV 50. The list includes 4 Tigers, 4 more Sox, 4 Twins, 3 Indians, and a Royal.

[amjgt]

Dave Schoenfeld on ESPN wrote an article about team offensive breakthrough candidates for 2018. I think we are all mostly aware of the bulk of what he says. The interesting part comes at the end.

 

———————

Of the 10 Twins hitters with the most playing time, only three were 30 or older and five were in their age-25 season or younger. The most promising second-half breakout belonged to Byron Buxton, who hit .300/.347/.546. With his defense, he’s an MVP candidate if he can hit like that for an entire season.

 

Eddie Rosario and Jorge Polanco had big power surges, with Rosario slugging .558 and Polanco slugging .511. Rosario popped 17 home runs in 70 games in the second half. Veteran Brian Dozier has had monster second halves two seasons in a row and ranked sixth in the majors with 21 second-half home runs.

 

 

Byron Buxton's offensive surge keyed the Twins' second-half charge to a wild card, but he still chases too many pitches.

That all sounds good, but here are some red flags. As a team, the Twins essentially had the same strikeout rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio in both halves. Their BABIP increased from .302 to .310, but most of their offensive gains came via simply hitting more home runs. As good as Buxton and Rosario were, they still have low walk rates and Buxton struck out five times for every walk in the second half. I'd like to see both of them clean up their chase rate before completely buying into their second-half numbers. The Twins also feasted of some bad pitching from the Tigers, White Sox and Royals. But, hey, those three teams are still in the AL Central.

 

While their offseason focus has understandably been on pitching -- maybe they’ll still end up with Yu Darvish, especially now with the news that Ervin Santana may be out until May -- runs are runs, and imagine J.D. Martinez in the middle of this lineup.

 

If the Twins can't get Darvish, they should be willing to give that money to Martinez. He'd be a huge impact bat and could split his playing time between the outfield and DH, putting Max Kepler or Robbie Grossman into a bench role that improves the team's depth while also hedging against some regression from some of the other hitters.

[GP830]

 

While their offseason focus has understandably been on pitching -- maybe they’ll still end up with Yu Darvish, especially now with the news that Ervin Santana may be out until May -- runs are runs, and imagine J.D. Martinez in the middle of this lineup.

If the Twins can't get Darvish, they should be willing to give that money to Martinez. He'd be a huge impact bat and could split his playing time between the outfield and DH, putting Max Kepler or Robbie Grossman into a bench role that improves the team's depth while also hedging against some regression from some of the other hitters.

That's interesting...

[amjgt]

From MLBTradeRumors....

 

Boston has reportedly offered Martinez a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $125MM, and to this point there hasn’t been much in the way of serious competition that has been widely reported.

 

 

I think I could maybe get on board for that, if Darvish falls through.

[GP830]

 

From MLBTradeRumors....

 

Boston has reportedly offered Martinez a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $125MM, and to this point there hasn’t been much in the way of serious competition that has been widely reported.

 

 

I think I could maybe get on board for that, if Darvish falls through.

Martinez and Archer looks pretty good right about now...

[Brock Beauchamp]

Personally, I'd be very mildly disappointed to see the Twins pick up Martinez.

 

Not because he's a bad player, simply because the Twins don't really need him and the opportunity cost of acquiring him is quite large.

 

Martinez will replace a mostly competent player in the field, negating some of the value he brings to the team. On the other hand, Darvish will be replacing a completely incompetent player, bolstering his value to the team.

[Twins33]

From MLBTradeRumors....

 

Boston has reportedly offered Martinez a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $125MM, and to this point there hasn’t been much in the way of serious competition that has been widely reported.

 

 

I think I could maybe get on board for that, if Darvish falls through.

Agreed. Darvish is the only big money FA pitcher out there. He'd be number one in the rotation. Even though they need SP, if they can't get Darvish it wouldn't be a bad thing to go after the big money hitter.

 

The Sox offer seems perfectly reasonable to me though and not a lowball. I don't think I'd want the Twins to go higher than 5/140 for JD, but he's definitely a guy I wanted the Twins to go after when the offseason started.

[Twins33]

Personally, I'd be very mildly disappointed to see the Twins pick up Martinez.

 

Not because he's a bad player, simply because the Twins don't really need him and the opportunity cost of acquiring him is quite large.

 

Martinez will replace a mostly competent player in the field, negating some of the value he brings to the team. On the other hand, Darvish will be replacing a completely incompetent player, bolstering his value to the team.

I wouldn't want them to do it unless Darvish is out of the picture. If they miss on Darvish then I'm all for it.

 

I'd put Martinez in Grossman's role. Part time OF, primary DH. Not sure he'd accept that though. Mauer, Sano and Vargas would still need some DH time too, but Martinez would be a big upgrade over Grossman.

[gunnarthor]

I like the idea of Martinez to spite Boston. The Twins outbid Boston!!! Woo-hoo!! 

 

But we really need pitching. I expect that we will sign Garcia and that's it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I wouldn't want them to do it unless Darvish is out of the picture. If they miss on Darvish then I'm all for it.

I'd put Martinez in Grossman's role. Part time OF, primary DH. Not sure he'd accept that though. Mauer, Sano and Vargas would still need some DH time too, but Martinez would be a big upgrade over Grossman.

I still think more monetary value will come from a pitching acquisition if Darvish is off the table.

 

The big problem I see with a Martinez contract is that it eats up a large portion of future payroll on a guy that the team doesn't really need.

[amjgt]

 

I still think more monetary value will come from a pitching acquisition if Darvish is off the table.

 

The big problem I see with a Martinez contract is that it eats up a large portion of future payroll on a guy that the team doesn't really need.

 

Yeah, but even if he's 75% of 2017 JD, he'd be an incredible bat in the middle of the lineup

[GP830]

 

I still think more monetary value will come from a pitching acquisition if Darvish is off the table.

 

The big problem I see with a Martinez contract is that it eats up a large portion of future payroll on a guy that the team doesn't really need.

I see your point, but I'd rather have Martinez than Kepler. If on the off-chance they sign Martinez, Kepler or Rosario could be used as a centerpiece for a legit, cost-controlled starter.

[GP830]

Not to get too far into the weeds here, but if these guys remain unsigned, Pohlad may see the opportunity to draw in some legit top-line free agents and open the pocketbook for both guys to try and put them over the top. 

 

Totally speculating.

[gunnarthor]

 

I see your point, but I'd rather have Martinez than Kepler. If on the off-chance they sign Martinez, Kepler or Rosario could be used as a centerpiece for a legit, cost-controlled starter.

True but I think Martinez if DH only at this point. He's not a good defender and he's getting older. I like having a rangy OF and with Mauer gone in a year, we can slide Sano there. Sano/Martinez back to back is pretty scary. 

[Twins33]

I see your point, but I'd rather have Martinez than Kepler. If on the off-chance they sign Martinez, Kepler or Rosario could be used as a centerpiece for a legit, cost-controlled starter.

Darren Wolfson just mentioned on the radio that the Rays like Kepler..

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I see your point, but I'd rather have Martinez than Kepler. If on the off-chance they sign Martinez, Kepler or Rosario could be used as a centerpiece for a legit, cost-controlled starter.

That's fair. If you move Kepler or Rosario and bring in pitching, that makes sense.

 

Though trading MLB-for-MLB talent is often difficult. If a team is ready to move a good MLB starter, chances are they have no interest in another MLB player, as they're likely rebuilding at that point. No one has an excess of good, cost-controlled MLB starters.

[GP830]

 

That's fair. If you move Kepler or Rosario and bring in pitching, that makes sense.

 

Though trading MLB-for-MLB talent is often difficult. If a team is ready to move a good MLB starter, chances are they have no interest in another MLB player, as they're likely rebuilding at that point. No one has an excess of good, cost-controlled MLB starters.

I would also be open to an "on-the-verge" top pitching prospect for one of our young outfielders.

[Vanimal46]

For those that believe this year's FA crop isn't that good and full of question marks. Travis Sawchik at Fangraphs built a fake roster of this year's remaining free agents. Their cumulative 2018 WAR is higher than your favorite team, the Twins. And would rank as the ~10th best team in baseball fighting for a wild card spot. 
 

"Could a Team of Remaining Free Agents Compete in 2018?"

 

[Thrylos]

 

I see your point, but I'd rather have Martinez than Kepler.

 

Then the Twins OF need to change their slogan to Nothing drops, but fly balls

 

[jimmer]

I wouldn't want them to do it unless Darvish is out of the picture. If they miss on Darvish then I'm all for it.

 

I'd put Martinez in Grossman's role. Part time OF, primary DH. Not sure he'd accept that though. Mauer, Sano and Vargas would still need some DH time too, but Martinez would be a big upgrade over Grossman.

wherever Martinez goes, he will play full time. And should. DH would be the spot.

[nicksaviking]

 

Then the Twins OF need to change their slogan to Nothing drops, but fly balls

 

It's right field at Target Field, it is perhaps the least demanding position in baseball. Just ask 40-year-old Torii Hunter who turned in a league average season in RF a year after being the worst outfielder in baseball playing in Detroit.

[GP830]

 

It's right field at Target Field, it is perhaps the least demanding position in baseball. Just ask 40-year-old Torii Hunter who turned in a league average season in RF a year after being the worst outfielder in baseball playing in Detroit.

Again- not to get too into the weeds-- is RF in Target Field notoriously easy?

[jimmer]

Again- not to get too into the weeds-- is RF in Target Field notoriously easy?

funny, in 2015, when Torii Hunter was playing in our easy RF getting -8 DRS, JD Martinez was getting +4 DRS playing half his time in the difficult Detroit RF.

[Twins33]

 

Again- not to get too into the weeds-- is RF in Target Field notoriously easy?

Not sure compared to other parks. I do remember Martinez botching a play in RF of TF because of the wall.

 

That doesn't really help my "sign him if we don't get Darvish" case...

[gunnarthor]

 

It's right field at Target Field, it is perhaps the least demanding position in baseball. Just ask 40-year-old Torii Hunter who turned in a league average season in RF a year after being the worst outfielder in baseball playing in Detroit.

I'm not sure TF's RF is the easiest. I'm pretty sure Comerica is the hardest RF in baseball by a considerable margin. But any RF with Buxton in CF is going to look easier.

 

That said, I'd still rather have Kepler out there than Martinez. And I'd rather have Martinez DHing pretty much anyone else but I don't think we have the money for these kind of things.

[nicksaviking]

 

funny, in 2015, when Torii Hunter was playing in our easy RF getting -8 DRS, JD Martinez was getting +4 DRS playing half his time in the difficult Detroit RF.

 

Hunter had a .3 UZR in TF and a -18.3 at Comerica the prior season. Similarly Martinez had a -17.2 in Comerica his last full season there. Both players were most hurt by the range factor, something that is largely negated by the tiny foul territory, the shallow but tall rightfield wall and Byron Buxton typically shading in that direction.

 

Sure, I'll take a good defensive player, but if the Twins can afford a position to sacrifice offense for defense, it's easily rightfield.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

That said, I'd still rather have Kepler out there than Martinez. And I'd rather have Martinez DHing pretty much anyone else but I don't think we have the money for these kind of things.

 

Sure, but I thought the hypothetical was Martinez and Archer vs. Martinez and Kepler, as Kepler was part of the bait to get the pitcher.

 

Under the same hypothetical, Martinez is only out in RF for a year or so anyway while the team waits for one of their young guys to emerge.

[bird]

 

For those that believe this year's FA crop isn't that good and full of question marks. Travis Sawchik at Fangraphs built a fake roster of this year's remaining free agents. Their cumulative 2018 WAR is higher than your favorite team, the Twins. And would rank as the ~10th best team in baseball fighting for a wild card spot. 
 

"Could a Team of Remaining Free Agents Compete in 2018?"

 

 

It's a cute article, but I don't think it says much of anything.

 

Looking down the list of names, I don't see anyone the Twins need outside of Darvish.

 

No ones going to get excited about that rotation either. Can you imagine how up in arms we'd be if Falvey told us our rotation would be rounded out with Garcia, Lackey and Nolasco? And that Arietta was our #2?

 

And then, you'd have a team clawing and scrambling for a wild card berth (I think that team would fail miserably, BTW) while the organization cut first-year checks totalling $245M. This, en route to paying a total obligation over 7 years of $865M while having to replace half the team after the first year, having to replace all but 6 players before the start of year 3, and dreading the albatross that Hosmer, Moustakis, Frazier, and Arietta have become in year 4. 

 

I guess the point of the article could have been to show how absolutely stupid it is to go the FA route to do anything other than to fill one or maybe two holes and maybe plug another spot or two with a cheap one-year option if the team is really desperate.  

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I swear this is his real answer, and not me just typing the answer myself! But I agree.

 

mike sixel
2:32 I understand that long term deals stink at the end, generally, but they are often good for the team at the beginning.....from a $/WAR stance. If teams are really going to balk at long term deals, which we'll see probably isn't true still this spring and next year, won't they almost "have" to pay more on an AAV basis? If I was an agent, that would be my argument.

Keith Law
2:34 The $/WAR stuff is so overblown - getting a 'good deal' is nice, but if your team isn't in a position to capitalize on those marginal wins, then ... you got a nice deal, congrats? If I were running a team within range of a wild-card spot or division title, I'd be less concerned about getting the most efficient deal specifically and more about getting the marginal wins I need to get into the playoffs. So I'd be fine overpaying on an AAV basis - and if anything I'd overpay in the short-term to try to get one or two fewer years at the end of the contract, when, as you said, most of them have long gone bad.

 

Drew
2:41 If the Twins were to opt for a trade as a way to get SP help would a Kepler/Gordon package for Archer be enough and/or a good use of their resources?

 

Keith Law
2:41 My guess is the Rays would insist on more, probably Romero too. Although Gordon fits the Rays' m.o. of acquiring shortstops who don't project to stay at shortstop.

 

Darren
2:42 How would you rank?
Brent Rooker Peter Alonso Lewin Diaz

Keith Law
2:42 Just like that.

 

John
2:55 In years past, I would try to measure who was the best defensive CF in the game, and it would vary from stat to stat.  This past year, it kinda looks like Buxton stands out above all of them.  Is that your assessment?

 

Keith Law
2:55 Yes, I think he's the best. An 80 defender, 80 runner, huge arm strength, and not bad at the plate.

 

SJ
3:01 Do you see Zach Granite ever hitting enough to be a starter? If so, is his ceiling Kevin Pillar or more Kiermaier/someone else?
Keith Law
3:02 I don't.