Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

jkcarew · July 2, 2018

Arraez missed all of 2017 with a torn ACL but he’s back to his high-contact ways, hitting .311 through two months. He has an 8% strikeout rate in his career and plays up the middle, but his swing generates pretty extreme opposite-field contact and he’s unlikely to hit for any in-game power. He’ll probably have to be a 7 bat to profile, even at second base.

FV: 35+

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily-prospect-notes-6-28/

Seems fair. Has to be a high BA guy to have offensive value (won't walk a lot), and the high BA guys (sustainable) seem to be very rare these days. The good news is that he is beginning to have an impressive track record of being that guy. I'd take that if it comes with decent D at 2B.

Anybody...what does 'in-game' power mean? What other kind of power does the analyst think we might be interested in...batting practice? I'm amused by the term, but not sure what it means.

Ben Noble · July 2, 2018

Anybody...what does 'in-game' power mean? What other kind of power does the analyst think we might be interested in...batting practice? I'm amused by the term, but not sure what it means.

Short hand, it's potential vs realized potential. And for many prospects, yeah, it kind of is about batting practice: young guys that can crush a straight fastball in BP but it hasn't showed up in games yet. This is probably most often due to pitch recognition issues (they're not waiting for their ball to square up and end up hitting a lot of singles that have the potential to turn into doubles and HR as they advance), but also mechanical flaws that need to be ironed out, as well as the expectation that frames will fill out as the player physically matures.

jkcarew · July 2, 2018

Short hand, it's potential vs realized potential. And for many prospects, yeah, it kind of is about batting practice: young guys that can crush a straight fastball in BP but it hasn't showed up in games yet. This is probably most often due to pitch recognition issues (they're not waiting for their ball to square up and end up hitting a lot of singles that have the potential to turn into doubles and HR as they advance), but also mechanical flaws that need to be ironed out, as well as the expectation that frames will fill out as the player physically matures.

Helpful...thanks. So, another way to express what the power potential might be for a player who hasn't shown power yet. The analyst isn't exactly going out on a limb here given Arraez's 4 HR in 1200 PA. Crushable fastballs are accidentally thrown where you happen to be swinging more often than that. Then again, Kirby Puckett had 4 HR in his first 1300+ PA. We can dream.

jimmer · July 3, 2018

Predicting Dozier to be traded to Dodgers.

https://www.mlb.com/news/trade-deadline-predictions-for-machado-hamels/c-283816686?tid=282421090

ashbury · July 3, 2018

Predicting Dozier to be traded to Dodgers.

Not possible. José De León belongs to Tampa Bay now.

Vanimal46 · July 3, 2018

Predicting Dozier to be traded to Dodgers.

https://www.mlb.com/news/trade-deadline-predictions-for-machado-hamels/c-283816686?tid=282421090

Interesting that they think he can still fetch a top 100 prospect. Granted the player they proposed is ranked #99, but still! Positivity!

TheLeviathan · July 3, 2018

Interesting that they think he can still fetch a top 100 prospect. Granted the player they proposed is ranked #99, but still! Positivity!

He's struck out 65 dudes in 49 innings. Yeah....good enough for me. Let's make that happen.

Otto von Ballpark · July 4, 2018

Predicting Dozier to be traded to Dodgers.

https://www.mlb.com/news/trade-deadline-predictions-for-machado-hamels/c-283816686?tid=282421090

All of the deals in that article seem overly aggressive for the buyers. The last two days, the Dodgers have started a 178 OPS+ hitter at 2B. They also have another utility guy with a 114 OPS+ they can plug in there whenever they want. Why would they give up real prospects just to hope for a bounceback from Dozier (94 OPS+)?

Other deals suggested by that article include the Yankees giving up a MLB ready, top 50 SP prospect for 2 months of 5.00 FIP Cole Hamels.

Lefty74 · July 4, 2018

He's struck out 65 dudes in 49 innings. Yeah....good enough for me. Let's make that happen.

Gavin Lux is a very skilled player as well. If Twins could get both they should do the deal now. Brian D has been a great asset and friend to the community but time to move in the younger guys.....

Otto von Ballpark · July 4, 2018

Gavin Lux is a very skilled player as well. If Twins could get both they should do the deal now. Brian D has been a great asset and friend to the community but time to move in the younger guys.....

The guy who wrote that article was the Mets GM who traded Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano...

jimmer · July 4, 2018

All of the deals in that article seem overly aggressive for the buyers. The last two days, the Dodgers have started a 178 OPS+ hitter at 2B. They also have another utility guy with a 114 OPS+ they can plug in there whenever they want. Why would they give up real prospects just to hope for a bounceback from Dozier (94 OPS+)?

Other deals suggested by that article include the Yankees giving up a MLB ready, top 50 SP prospect for 2 months of 5.00 FIP Cole Hamels.

I didn't say I agreed with any of the ideas, just putting it out there for all to read :-)

ashbury · July 4, 2018

Gavin Lux is a very skilled player as well.

I'm not enthused about Lux. The scout ratings I'm looking at peg him as a poor man's Nick Gordon, which we already have one of - and I'm already concerned about Gordon not sticking at SS, particularly with Polanco's marginal arm there. Trading from our glut at 2B for another impending glut at 2B wouldn't be my preference.

Otto von Ballpark · July 4, 2018

I'm not enthused about Lux. The scout ratings I'm looking at peg him as a poor man's Nick Gordon, which we already have one of - and I'm already concerned about Gordon not sticking at SS, particularly with Polanco's marginal arm there. Trading from our glut at 2B for another impending glut at 2B wouldn't be my preference.

I think you take what you can get at this point. Lux is posting a 151 wRC+ at high-A right now, so maybe his bat develops a bit better than Gordon? Gordon only had a 112 at that level, and still hasn't really exceeded that over a full season. Plus, Lux doesn't even have to be added to the 40-man roster until after the 2020 season, so you'd have a lot of time with him as a nonroster asset to trade if our MLB infield solidifies as hoped.

Not that I think the Dodgers would even offer Lux for Dozier right now, though, unless Dozier starts one of his hot streaks very soon. I guess Dozier could be an August trade candidate now too...

amjgt · July 4, 2018

Not possible. José De León belongs to Tampa Bay now.

Do we think Bellinger is still available?

Squirrel · July 4, 2018

Everyone, please keep in mind that the purpose of this thread is to post articles on the Twins from Fangraphs and other national publications. Please do not blow this thread up into a ‘Dozier to the Dodgers’ trade discussion thread. If you feel it’s worthy of its own topic, I’m happy to split off the comments already made into its own thread, otherwise please don’t delve too deeply into this topic here.

Platoon · July 4, 2018

Doesn't TD have the old "Dozier to the Dodgers" thread in its microfiche files somewhere. That could be retrieved, and reopened, and we could merrily explore the possibilities for another 73 pages? l'll start: Dozier for Duensing? I know Duensing is with Cubs but maybe a 3 way? Duensing could provide veteran leadership to our young BP.

diehardtwinsfan · July 4, 2018

interesting as I don't think Dozier is even one of our better chips, unless teams really think he can turn it around in the second half.

Mike Sixel · July 4, 2018

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-twins-2018-has-been-a-mess/

amjgt · July 4, 2018

Everyone, please keep in mind that the purpose of this thread is to post articles on the Twins from Fangraphs and other national publications. Please do not blow this thread up into a ‘Dozier to the Dodgers’ trade discussion thread. If you feel it’s worthy of its own topic, I’m happy to split off the comments already made into its own thread, otherwise please don’t delve too deeply into this topic here.

Yeah.. we'd hate for a 135 page thread to get out of hand

amjgt · July 4, 2018

Also... is there a reason we don't have Fangraphs 2016... 2017... 2018 separate threads? Seems logical. There's no good reason to have a 135 page thread that spans over three seasons.

Heck even:

Fangraphs 2016

Fangraphs 2016-17 Offseason

Fangraphs 2017

Fangraphs 2017-18 Offseason

Fangraphs 2018

etc

Mike Sixel · July 4, 2018

Also... is there a reason we don't have Fangraphs 2016... 2017... 2018 separate threads? Seems logical. There's no good reason to have a 135 page thread that spans over three seasons.

Heck even:
Fangraphs 2016
Fangraphs 2016-17 Offseason
Fangraphs 2017
Fangraphs 2017-18 Offseason
Fangraphs 2018
etc

To what end? Start a new one if you want. I am too lazy to do so

beckmt · July 4, 2018

Scary part of the last few postings are that the Fangraph writers are now really doubting both Buxton and Sano. That would really make the last few years(of TR) a total system failure. Not only bad baseball, but little future until the early 2020's.

amjgt · July 4, 2018

To what end? Start a new one if you want. I am too lazy to do so

Organization

In my opinion five 30 page threads is better than one 150 page thread. Maybe it’s just me.

I will not start one. That seems like a mod decision. I was just offering the suggestion.

Mike Sixel · July 5, 2018

12:30
David: Please give this depressed Twins fan something to look forward to watching for the rest of the season….
12:32
Jay Jaffe: I painted a dark picture the other day (https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-twins-2018-has-been-a-mess/) but I still think there’s hope in the long run. Eddie Rosario has been great, Byron Buxton can’t possibly be worse than he’s already been, Jose Berrios is legit, Kyle Gibson is apparently good, and Fernando Romero showed promise.

12:45
Mike: When does Buxton return?
12:45
Jay Jaffe: My guess is sometime after the All-Star break.

1:22
Da Bum: Any signs of a Dozier rebound? Been a bad first half.
1:23
Jay Jaffe: see above-linked Twins piece. I expect some positive regression but maybe he’s just no longer elite.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-7-5-18/

Mike Sixel · July 5, 2018

2:11
Actually in ATL: After a slow start, Brent Rooker has hit .318/.392/.664 since the start of June. Heard anything on him this year to change your report? Thanks!

2:12
Eric A Longenhagen: Twins 2017 draftee who went back to school after being drafted too late for his liking in 2016 and had a huge uptick in power at Miss St. Haven’t seen him in person, had a scout tell me he thought the breaking ball recognition was poor, that was a few weeks ago now.

2:18
Billy: Nick Gordon: second base long term?
2:18
Eric A Longenhagen: I think so

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-chat-7-5-18/

Vanimal46 · July 5, 2018

Oh boy! Another prospect that can't recognize breaking balls! We needed more of those in the mix.

Mike Sixel · July 5, 2018

Brett: You’ve always said to be patient with Buxton. Is it okay to officially think this is what he will be offensively for the majority of his career?

Keith Law: Buxton has barely played this year. I’m curious what you “officially” think he’s done this season.

Logan: Any specific reason the Twins are having so much patience with promoting Royce Lewis?
Keith Law: He’s 19. I’d say arguing for a promotion to high-A is impatience.

Vanimal46 · July 5, 2018

MLB Trade Rumors chat:

Hep

3:35 Can the Twins get anything at the deadline?

Jeffrey Todd

3:36 Cost savings, mostly. But Escobar could draw a return, Rodney/Duke are useful, and maybe there's enough interest in Dozier for his track record to get some talent.

Mike Sixel · July 6, 2018

Bill G
9:33 Hi Jeff. Thanks for doing these chats. Max Kepler was forecast by many to break out this year, that has not happened especially against RHP. What do you see? Thanks!
Jeff Sullivan
9:33 We all pretend we can predict breakouts. We cannot predict breakouts. The most we can do is identify breakouts that have quietly already begun
9:34 Like, Blake Snell. He broke out in the second half of 2017. Now he's great! But he was already more or less great
9:35 If it makes you feel better, here are Kepler's expected wOBAs over the years: .291, .302, .323
9:36 He *has* gotten better, in a way the surface numbers are hiding. His walks are up and his strikeouts are down, and that's a plus
9:37 You'd hope that, maybe soon, he can turn on the Benintendi-style power

All Cats Are Beautiful
10:03 Would Astudillo best be described as squat, sturdy, rotund, or portly?
Jeff Sullivan
10:03 Let's go with squat

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-7-6-18/