Surprise, Surprise!

[DocBauer]

To quote Python, Monty that is; "and now for something completely different."

 

Wait...what's this? A post about something other than Ryan, Mauer or a catcher??!! (At least in theory)

 

So simply:

 

What was your biggest surprise in 2015?

What do you speculate as being the biggest surprise in 2016?

 

I guess the biggest surprises don't have to be positive in nature. Or perhaps you may feel there were significant surprises both positive and negative in 2015...possibly speculate on the same for 2016? I could, but will not, post a litany of possibilities as that is up to you.

 

Were I to be negative, Arcia would be my top choice, in a very tight race over D Santana.

 

Most positive surprise would be Duffey.

 

For '16, my surprise is Berrios. I believe he will be OK, and after settling in, he will pitch like the ROY he will become.

 

You?

[Major League Ready]

Let’s call this my wish list

Sano surprises us by doing a reasonable job at 3rd to start the season and then gets progressively better by the end of the year and is ML average defensively by the end of the year.

 

Arcia gets a shot out of spring training and rakes.  He takes over the DH spot with a 950 OPS and acts as a 4th or 5th outfielder.  Maybe teach him 1st base over the next couple years and he or Sano eventually take over for Mauer.

 

Kepler comes up in June.  His power surge toward the end of the last year continues and becomes and outstanding 3 hole hitter for the next decade.  He also play plus defense.  This allows us to trade Hicks who continues to get better for top of the rotation SP prospect.

 

Buxton tears it up at AAA and is here by the end of May.  He continues this play at the ML level and becomes ROY.

 

Duffey pitches 200 innings with a sub 3 ERA

 

Someome takes Nolasco off our hands.  Twins pay 50% of his salary.

 

AB Walker approach improves / pitch recognition improves substantially and he joins the team late in the year blasting the ball all over the park in a Miguel Cabrera fashion.

 

Kohl Stewart has a huge year and once again becomes a legit front of the rotation prospect.

 

Eddie Rosario’s plate discipline makes a huge leap and he becomes a 300 hitter with a 360 OBP.

 

We trade for Sanchez, he improves his defense and becomes a ROY candidate.

 

Pressley comes back and is lights out in the pen.

 

Perks is the always reliable Perk.

 

We add a big arm to the pen who crushes it Davis style.

 

Other than that I don’t want much at all and this is all going to happen. 

[Platoon]

Let’s call this my wish list

Sano surprises us by doing a reasonable job at 3rd to start the season and then gets progressively better by the end of the year and is ML average defensively by the end of the year.

 

Arcia gets a shot out of spring training and rakes.  He takes over the DH spot with a 950 OPS and acts as a 4th or 5th outfielder.  Maybe teach him 1st base over the next couple years and he or Sano eventually take over for Mauer.

 

Kepler comes up in June.  His power surge toward the end of the last year continues and becomes and outstanding 3 hole hitter for the next decade.  He also play plus defense.  This allows us to trade Hicks who continues to get better for top of the rotation SP prospect.

 

Buxton tears it up at AAA and is here by the end of May.  He continues this play at the ML level and becomes ROY.

 

Duffey pitches 200 innings with a sub 3 ERA

 

Someome takes Nolasco off our hands.  Twins pay 50% of his salary.

 

AB Walker approach improves / pitch recognition improves substantially and he joins the team late in the year blasting the ball all over the park in a Miguel Cabrera fashion.

 

Kohl Stewart has a huge year and once again becomes a legit front of the rotation prospect.

 

Eddie Rosario’s plate discipline makes a huge leap and he becomes a 300 hitter with a 360 OBP.

 

We trade for Sanchez, he improves his defense and becomes a ROY candidate.

 

Pressley comes back and is lights out in the pen.

 

Perks is the always reliable Perk.

 

We add a big arm to the pen who crushes it Davis style.

 

Other than that I don’t want much at all and this is all going to happen.

 

You forgot the inevitable result of all of the above! The parade down Hennepin Avenue in November!

[Mike Sixel]

Duffey was my biggest positive surprise last year. I didn't think he'd get a start over Berrios, and I didn't think he'd be that good.

 

I think the biggest surprise of 2016 is that the Twins will promptly promote some minor league pitchers to the bullpen, and not wait until August to move some from starter to the bullpen.

[James]

I'd have to say that the biggest surprise of the 2015 season for me was that the Twins stayed in contention for a playoff spot until pretty much the end of the year and finishing 2nd in the division.  I thought that they would be an improved team, but I didn't believe that they would improve by that much.  It was a very positive surprise.  

 

I would say that my biggest surprise of 2016 will be that the Twins get into the playoffs, but I'm not going to do that.  I think they have enough talent and momentum that it wouldn't surprise me at all.  In fact, I almost expect it. 

 

The biggest surprise of 2016 will come from the ROY voting when it is revealed that there is a tie for 1st place between Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios!  

[formerly33]

Surprising enough to induce heart failure:

• Pelf's first half

Slightly less injurious surprises:

• Twins' 4/10 win
• Rosario 5/6 homerun
• Molitor's 6/10 ejection
• Win #73 on 9/11

Non surprises with a surprise factor mixed in:

• Twins' 10/3 loss

Non surprises:

• Pelf's second half
• Miguel Sano

2016...how can you predict a surprise? Doesn’t expecting the unexpected make the unexpected expected? Though I'm pretty sure that nothing will ever be able to prepare me for Terry Ryan's clubhouse dance after we win the WS.

[twinsfanstreif]

Biggest Surprise for 2015 for me is Hicks figuring it out, I was a big Hicks supporter but even I had left him for dead. Sano dominating like he did and Duffy are probably close seconds

 

For 2016 I'm predicting ABW and Nick Burdi are going to contribute bigtime. On a secondary note I think Kohl Stewart is gonna put some things together and assert himself as a top prospect again

[gunnarthor]

Biggest surprise for me wasn't the final record, I thought we'd be around .500, but how we did it.  I figured Hughes would pitch well, Nolasco and Santana would be solid and Gibson would take a step forward.  Got one of those right.  So I think the pitching from Duffey, Milone and Pelfrey are the biggest surprises for me.  Sure, they aren't great but they gave us, roughly, a combined 350ip and 3.93 era.

 

Biggest surprise for 2016?  Man, how about Escobar being an all-star at shortstop?  

[dxpavelka]

 

Biggest surprise for me wasn't the final record, I thought we'd be around .500, but how we did it.  I figured Hughes would pitch well, Nolasco and Santana would be solid and Gibson would take a step forward.  Got one of those right.  So I think the pitching from Duffey, Milone and Pelfrey are the biggest surprises for me.  Sure, they aren't great but they gave us, roughly, a combined 350ip and 3.93 era.

 

Biggest surprise for 2016?  Man, how about Escobar being an all-star at shortstop?  

I would assume you are referring to Alcides Escobar.

[twinsnorth49]

Whew! I thought the title of this thread meant " Surprise, Surprise, they resigned Mike Pelfrey".

 

Back to having a good day.

[James Richter]

Positive surprise: Duffey

 

Negative surprise: The collective failure of the bullpen prospects (Burdi, Reed, Jay, etc.) to rapidly progress.

 

2016 surprise: Nolasco provides 200+ quality innings... for the team we dump him on.

[dgwills]

 

Biggest Surprise for 2015 for me is Hicks figuring it out, I was a big Hicks supporter but even I had left him for dead. Sano dominating like he did and Duffy are probably close seconds

 

For 2016 I'm predicting ABW and Nick Burdi are going to contribute bigtime. On a secondary note I think Kohl Stewart is gonna put some things together and assert himself as a top prospect again

Hicks was my biggest surprise as well. I never thought he would be able to hit major league pitching. Honestly I still don't believe it.

This year I think Arcia will focus more on being a complete hitter and do well. Kohl Stewart just needs a plus pitch to develop and he should jump back up in the rankings, so I'll include him as well.

[Loosey]

2016 Biggest Surprises:

 

Positives:

1) Buxton and Berrios have ROY type seasons

2) Mauer hits .300

3) Sano plays 3rd well and hits 40+ HR

4) Gonsalves is Berrioslike in Minors

 

Negatives:

1) Dozier's season is more like 2015 2nd half

2) Rosario struggles

3) Perkins and Jepson pitch poorly leaving a hole at back-end of pen

4) Extension of #3, Due to poor back of pen pitching, May is forced back into pen after starting well in the rotation

 

 

[USAFChief]

 

Whew! I thought the title of this thread meant " Surprise, Surprise, they resigned Mike Pelfrey".

 

Back to having a good day.

 

This came to my mind.

[spinowner]

 

Arcia gets a shot out of spring training and rakes.  He takes over the DH spot with a 950 OPS and acts as a 4th or 5th outfielder.  Maybe teach him 1st base over the next couple years and he or Sano eventually take over for Mauer.

 

I hope for this as well, but some people simply are not able to play 1B. Picture trying to let Delmon Young play there, for example.

[DocBauer]

 

 

This came to my mind.

Very astute!

 

I couldn't think of a way to work in a 3rd surprise, but this is what I heard in my head when starting the thread.  lol

[Major League Ready]

 

I hope for this as well, but some people simply are not able to play 1B. Picture trying to let Delmon Young play there, for example.

This is a good point.  It's probably a log shot he would ever be an average or even slightly below average defensive 1B.  I just cringed when I did as you suggested and imagine Delmon at 1B.  He just seemed  uncoordinated.  I would like to think Arcia is fair amount more athletic.  Seriously, I used to swear at the TV when he was in the outfield.  God, that was painful to watch. 

[ashbury]

My biggest 2015 surprise was that the team cobbled together a winning record, despite being outscored slightly. Even if you dig deeper, the surprise continues: they scored nearly a league-average number of runs while compiling a league-worst OPS+ of 90. I was very late to accept this would be a winning team, expecting even in mid-September some sort of collapse to deny them a .500 record.

 

For 2016, I could easily go with a similar surprise to most people, if they slip below .500; I think it's quite possible they could make progress on several fronts and still look worse due to the breaks evening out. I'm paying too much attention to the 1984-87 Twins, I guess. For a positive surprise, how about Trevor May finding his way back into the rotation and putting up good numbers the rest of the way.

[jimmer]

AL rankings:

 

15th in OBP

14th in wRC+

14th in position player WAR

 

yet 8th in runs

 

9th in team FIP

8th in team pitching WAR

9th in rotation FIP

7th in rotation WAR

 

12th in DRS

10th in UZR

 

Yet we had a winning record and were still in playoff hunt till the last weekend.

 

 

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

2015 Surprises: Duffey's curveball, Escobar's extra-base power

2016 Surprise: Alex Meyer, Oswaldo Arcia

[jsteve96]

2015 biggest Surpise: Eddie Rosario with 2nd most assists in Baseball and being a solid ROY candidate.(Might be tied with Pelfrey but rookies always get my vote)... Biggest negative was definitely Mauers War less than 1.

2016 biggest Positive surprise: Eduardo Escobar hits 20 home runs and has a 4+ WAR.(I know that's bold)

2016 biggest Negative: Aaron Hicks will be gone and Buxton won't play up to his ability and Their CF curse continues

[roger]

The biggest surprise from 2015 is the results.  Although I had predicted more than 81 wins, didn't have a lot of faith in that prediction.

 

Individually, hats off to Aaron Hicks.  After watching him fail on the field while most continued to ink him into the Twins lineups of the future, he moved to the 'you will need to show me' category for me.  Well, Mr. Hicks did show me last year. 

 

On the mound, Tyler Duffey was a huge surprise.  And I believe he will continue to surprise us in 2016 as he becomes a legitimate ACE...albeit a somewhat different Ace with that nasty curveball. 

 

The disappointment for many, but not me, will be the continued struggles of Kohl Stewart who has replaced Hicks in my 'you need to show me category.'

 

And yes, I also see Mr. Berrios and Buxton both being in the hunt for ROY.

 

After the Twins brief playoff run in 2016, the biggest surprise will come from Joe Mauer.  After watching his numbers slip yet again, Mauer will negotiate a settlement with the Twins and retire one year from today.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Two biggest surprises in 2015:

 

1) Twins in the wildcard hunt until the last weekend of the season.

2) Tyler Duffey, 5-1, 3.10.

 

2016:

 

1) Twins either win the division over K.C, or collapse below .500

2) Berrios' winning in the MLB would not be a surprise, but how about Taylor Rogers? Forced into the rotation due to injuries? Or solid in the bullpen as formidable LHP? 

3) Arcia or Vargas click.

[Thegrin]

We expect these things for 2016.

 - Nobody will be happy with Ryan's solution to the Twins Catcher weakness.

 - Mauer to continue his batting decline.

 - Dozier to produce in the same fashion as 2014/2015

 - 3rd base confusion...Plouffe?? Sano ??  who plays where ?

 - Escobar to be the regular SS

 - Rosario, Hicks, Buxton, Kepler, Arcia is too many promising Outfielders to keep playing regularly.

 - Our 7 starter candidates will be slightly improved over the 2015 starters.

 - The bullpen will be overhauled before the season starts.

 -  Molitor will be the same semi-competent manager he was in 2015

 

Anything else will be a SURPRISE SURPRISE SURPRISE! 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Biggest good surprise: Duffey and it's not very close in my eyes.

 

Biggest bad surprise: Arcia and it's not close at all.

[Hrbowski]

2015 biggest surprise: Not winning the World Series.

 

2016 biggest surprise: When Terry Ryan finds out that he needs to extend Joe Mauer for five years so we won't have to sign a veteran every year, and than sign Duensing and Pelfrey to eight year deals so we can have leadership². Duens and Pelf should have an average ERA of 4.255.

[puckstopper1]

Biggest 2015 surprise is Duffey.

 

Biggest 2016 surprise - Shane Robinson makes the Twins roster out of Spring Training and the TD posters DON'T go ballistic!

[ashbury]

After the Twins brief playoff run in 2016, the biggest surprise will come from Joe Mauer.  After watching his numbers slip yet again, Mauer will negotiate a settlement with the Twins and retire one year from today.

It will count as a surprise to him as well, I mean compared to his current expectation. He's quoted via Charley Walters as probably wanting to play “as long as I can,” implying even after his current contract.

 

http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_29086735/charley-walters-twins-joe-mauer-isnt-looking-too

[ashbury]

I predict: biggest 2016 surprise is the Twins signing Byung-Ho Park.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I predict: biggest 2016 surprise is the Twins signing Byung-Ho Park.

 

Dang, you beat me to it. Stupid work meeting....