Article: Why Not Wieters?

[Nick Nelson]

The Offseason Handbook was released on Monday, and is now available for immediate download. The ebook includes dozens of free agent profiles covering players available at every position, but one of the biggest focuses is catcher, which is perhaps Minnesota's most glaring need.

 

The top name on the catcher market this winter is an intriguing one... Maybe the most intriguing we've seen in a long time.Matt Wieters was the fifth overall pick by the Orioles in 2007 draft, and within a couple of years he developed into the No. 1 prospect in baseball. A switch-hitting catcher boasting solid receiving skills to go along with power and plate discipline, Wieters looked like the whole package, and many viewed him as the player who would supplant Joe Mauer (who was enjoying his MVP season when Wieters came into the league in 2009) as the game's best backstop.

 

He didn't quite fulfill that immense promise, but Wieters did hit .255/.319/.420 with 87 home runs while appearing in two All-Star Games over his first five seasons in the majors. Elbow problems in 2014 led to Tommy John surgery, and the recovery process limited him to 101 total games over the past two seasons. Still, he kept hitting when he was on the field, and his arm looked fine after he returned this summer. There are inherently going to be question marks surrounding a guy who has missed as much time as he has recently, but Wieters has done enough on the field to minimize those concerns.

 

His market this winter is going to be interesting. He's hardly a superstar but he's really the only bona fide starting catcher in the free agent field. And it's just not very often that you see players of his pedigree and youth (he doesn't turn 30 until next May) openly available. The competitive bidding among clubs that are looking to improve at catcher could dissuade the Twins from pursuing him very seriously.

 

But there's no doubt that it's something they need to consider.

 

In the Offseason Handbook, we estimated a Wieters contract at four years and $60 million, which is roughly in line with the 4/64 estimate that MLB Trade Rumors laid out last week. In our Twins Daily Offseason Blueprint within the Handbook, we actually suggest signing Wieters, because his appeal is obvious. He's the rare example of a long-term core player that can be added at a somewhat reasonable price through free agency, and with the Twins organization sorely lacking for any kind of legitimate prospects at the position, his addition would shore up the most obvious weakness in the system.

 

But in order to take the plunge on Wieters, Terry Ryan and the Twins would really, really have to be believers in him. He would require a substantial investment.

 

For starters, his theoretical contract would be the largest ever given to a free agent by this franchise, surpassing Ervin Santana's $55 million deal last year. And even our (and MLBTR's) estimate might be on the low side, given that his agent is Scott Boras and Minnesota isn't necessarily viewed as the most desirable of destinations.

 

Adding Wieters would also mean relegating Kurt Suzuki, who is owed $6 million in 2016, to strict backup status, and committing upwards of $20 million to the catcher position next year. That's a tough pill to swallow, but I think most (including Twins brass) would agree that Suzuki shouldn't be assured any kind of role based on his contract. He was a backup-caliber player this year, through and through, and that has largely been true throughout his career.

 

The final impediment with Wieters is that signing him will cost the Twins a draft pick, since the Orioles are expected to make him a qualifying offer. In tandem with Santana last year, that would be two straight offseasons in which Ryan forfeited a high pick to sign a free agent to a long-term contract. This would be extremely uncharacteristic, but if the Twins are truly making an all-out push for contention mode, and are fully committed to addressing their hole at catcher with authority, all options need to be on the table.

 

Fortunately, if the sacrifices necessary to land Wieters are deemed too great, there are plenty of other options out there. Nobody outside of him in free agency really projects as a reliable full-time starter, but there are some players who would be a strong fit in a time-sharing scenario with Suzuki, offering the potential to move into a more regular role. Those players – guys like Alex Avila, A.J. Pierzynski and Dioner Navarro – are probably the ones that Ryan and the Twins will target more aggressively.

 

But there are also some rather compelling trade possibilities. We'll take a look at some of them in the coming days and weeks.

 

If you want to learn more about Wieters, as well as the rest of the free agent crop and numerous trade targets, please consider picking up a copy of the Offseason Handbook today. With 101 pages of dynamite content, it's a must-have for Twins fans as Hot Stove season officially gets underway.

 

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[nytwinsfan]

 

In tandem with Santana last year, that would be two straight offseasons in which the Ryan forfeited a second-round draft pick to sign a free agent to a long-term contract.

Happy to be wrong, but wouldn't it be a first-round pick this year, given that we draft 17th this year?

[Nick Nelson]

Good point, I will tweak.

[Willihammer]

There is no way the Twins are forfeiting the 17th pick. I would be shocked.

[Willihammer]

Too old, too broken, too tall, not enough bat to transition out of C, and too expensive.

[Shane Wahl]

This is just not going to happen. And I don't think it actually should either. Willihammer's two posts above articulate all of this clearly.

[James Richter]

If they chicken out on the QO, I'd definitely be interested.

 

Overall, the offseason blueprint you laid out in the handbook looks pretty good.

[tellis205]

Their looking for a good young blocked catcher.  The cost will likely be

alot.  But we have alot of young players to give up.  

[ThejacKmp]

 

There is no way the Twins are forfeiting the 17th pick. I would be shocked.

 

Agreed. I would not be devastated if they did because Wieters could be fun but I can't say I think it would be a great move.

 

The issue with the other contenders is that Suzuki doesn't have much of a split advantage that lends itself to a platoon - almost shockingly so. He's the same hitter from either side of the plate. I guess that means you can platoon him with anyone but it doesn't really give you a huge advantage.

 

Unless the Twins can get someone like Lucroy for a reasonable package, I'm a tepid fan of bringing in Pierzynski or Avila on a 2 year deal (hopefully they're the backup year 2) and hoping that either (1) you can pry loose some catcher in the next 18 months or (2) Garver/Turner/Navaretto take a jump this year and look ready to take over. I don't have a ton of faith in those guys though so that's hard to bet on.

 

It really feels like catcher is about to become the new version of the Twins middle infield woes of the last decade. The free agent market looks shaky at best (as many pointed out Wieters has some warts and is by far the best option) and internal candidates are not too promising.

[HitInAPinch]

My bet is Terry Ryan would be concerned that it took 2 years for Wieters to recover from TJ surgery.  More recent, players are recovering [or at least, seem like] faster than ever.  If Wieter's salary request goes beyond the 4 @ $60m I'd probably walk away.

 

Intrigued by Avila and Pena.  Maybe Soto.

[DJL44]

No Pierzynski. Brayan Pena is a better fit.

[troyhobbs]

Steep price tag but I'd consider taking the risk.  Pretty thin C market and they need an upgrade there if they plan to make a playoff run. They could still use an ace even more so unless they plan to throw more money at a true #1 SP I would gamble on Weiters, has just as much upside as downside.

[Loosey]

Most of his value is due to the fact he is a catcher.  If he can't catch or become a liability as a catcher sooner rather than later this could be a bad contract.  If he continues to catch then I would be ok with it.  But like I said if he isn't a catcher then he essentially becomes Trevor Plouffe.

[Nick Nelson]

 

My bet is Terry Ryan would be concerned that it took 2 years for Wieters to recover from TJ surgery.  More recent, players are recovering [or at least, seem like] faster than ever.  If Wieter's salary request goes beyond the 4 @ $60m I'd probably walk away.

 

Intrigued by Avila and Pena.  Maybe Soto.

? Wieters underwent TJ surgery in June of 2014 and was back behind the plate on June 5th of this year. That's less than one year of recovery time. After returning, he threw out 31% of base stealers, which is right around league average.

 

I'm not sure I understand the concerns about Wieters needing to move away from catcher anytime soon. I'm also not sure I understand the overall durability concerns. Prior to Tommy John he had started 120+ games at catcher for four straight seasons. The elbow surgery is in the past now.

[kab21]

Nearly every catcher target is flawed and if people focus on the flaws then the Twins will certainly be using a Suzuki/mediocre vet platoon.  Of course Wieters costs a draft pick but that draft pick is less valuable than Kepler and the rest of the package needed for Lucroy.  Norris still might be my first target (even up swap for Plouffe) but Wieters is really intriguing.

[deanlambrecht]

This, exactly:

 

Nearly every catcher target is flawed and if people focus on the flaws then the Twins will certainly be using a Suzuki/mediocre vet platoon.  Of course Wieters costs a draft pick but that draft pick is less valuable than Kepler and the rest of the package needed for Lucroy.  Norris still might be my first target (even up swap for Plouffe) but Wieters is really intriguing.

 

[Mike Sixel]

You could sub "free agent" for catcher there......every player has flaws. The job of the FO is to figure out how to put the best combination of flawed players together to win games. I would hope that they compare the catching options to each other, not some platonic catcher that largely does not exist.

[Brock Beauchamp]

"Why not Wieters?" is a good way to frame this question.

 

In a field where every catching option is either flawed or expensive (prospect-wise) to acquire, "Why not Wieters?"

[USAFChief]

Wieters seems like the best answer out there among a bunch of not so great options.

 

My second choice would be Lucroy.

 

What I expect from the Twins is one of the cheap FA options which won't do much to shore up the position short term and nothing to shore up the position long term.

[Vanimal46]

I wouldn't be concerned with giving up the #17 pick if Wieters is offered a QO. If the contract is within the 4/60 projection I'd bite the bullet and bring him on board.

[nicksaviking]

 

Nearly every catcher target is flawed and if people focus on the flaws then the Twins will certainly be using a Suzuki/mediocre vet platoon.

 

I'm OK with that. 

 

I'm not typically risk adverse, but the Twins just have too many terrible contracts at the moment.  If they can't pawn them off on other teams, they really need to wait until they expire to start handing out more questionable long term deals to vets.  I want a good catcher too, but it's not worth hamstringing the future over; offensive catchers are not a necessity.

[Willihammer]

They have Zuke another year anyways. They can kick the can down the road another year, roll with AJ or maybe Saltalamacchia on the other half of a platoon and spend the 4/60 on other things. Like a certain Korean slugger.

[bluechipper]

I'd be in favor of signing Weiters as the big offseason acquisition. Losing a first rounder isn't ideal, but solving the biggest issue on the team would be well worth it.

[Winston Smith]

Why not?

1. Expensive

2. Draft pick

3. Injury history

4. Terry Ryan is the GM

Why AJ?

1. Cheap

2. No draft pick

3. Never injured

4. Terry reliving maybe his greatest GM move

 

Just a guess!

[Mike Sixel]

I gotta admit, I didn't know AJ hit that well last year.....I'd certainly go that route right now.

[nicksaviking]

Wieters has been fine offensively, but not better than Pierzynski and his career offensively is pretty similar to Chris Iannetta.  Defensively Dioner Navarro is in the same ballpark and Geovany Soto isn't much of a step back. 

 

No argument that Wieters is the best all around catcher available, but there's no way he's 60M and 4 years better than any of the other options.  And it's really that 4+ years that most concerns me.  And the pick.

[TheLeviathan]

AJ isn't even in the same universe as Wieters defensively.  We're talking about a high end defensive catcher with a solid bat and all we have to give up is some money and a mid round draft pick?

 

The evidence is abundant that later first round draft picks are more than a bit unreliable for future value.  Signing Wieters means we get an immediate upgrade and we give up nothing that will be helping this team in the near future.  (As it would to acquire Lucroy)

 

I would be thrilled if we signed him.  Thrilled.

[Seth Stohs]

For me, I wouldn't even really consider Wieters. I think giving up the 17th overall pick is a lot. He's basically 30, so we're talking about years 30-33. Some do alright, but signing catchers at 30 to long term contracts a little/lot scary to me.

 

If it gets late in the free agent timeline (maybe January) and Wieters is now willing to go 2 years and $25 million, I might consider it.

 

I'm not saying AJ because he can maybe help a team offensively (at 40, we'll see). Not much defensively, though that doesn't change from now. But I'd rather go with a veteran on a one-year deal than spend big on Wieters. 

[Loosey]

17th overall picks by WAR going back to 1965:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=17&draft_type=junreg&

 

I wouldn't let the 17th overall pick be the piece that sways the Twins from doing this if it comes down to it.  As I mentioned before, my biggest concern would be how much longer does Wieters stay a catcher.  Nick Nelson doesn't seem to think that is a concern yet.  

 

If he is signed for 4 years $60M and plays catcher the whole 4 years.  I'd do it.  

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

AJ isn't even in the same universe as Wieters defensively.  We're talking about a high end defensive catcher with a solid bat and all we have to give up is some money and a mid round draft pick?

 

Dioner Navarro is better defensively and Geovany Soto is comparable.  Odds are that he'd be better than both offensively, but it's not even close to a sure thing, they've both had seasons as good or better than Wieters offensively. I sure don't think he's 4 years, 60 million and a draft pick better than them.