Rosario (2015) = Santana (2014) Yes or No

[stringer bell]

I have been impressed with Eddie Rosario since the AFL season. He's done a lot of things right since being recalled by the Twins in May. He's had a nice assortment of extra base hits, beat out enough bunts and rollers to avoid a slump, played well in the field, run the bases aggressively and risen to the occasion in key situations quite often.

 

Many have compared his season to the 2014 season for Danny Santana. Everything I wrote about Rosario could be said about Santana in 2014, with the possible exception of good defense. The BABIP has been good for Eddie, but not crazy good like the number put up by Santana last year.

 

Do you, the TD faithful, think Rosario will fade similar to the fate that befell Santana? Why or why not?

[Danchat]

I'm going to say "kind of". He's due for a little regression in my opinion, but since he's a better "overall" batter than Santana, I think he can keep it up. 2014 Santana got a lot of infield hits due to his speed and that didn't repeat quite as often in 2015. I think Rosario's hitting is a lot more sustainable. He just needs to take some more walks and get that OBP up.

[jimmer]

Rosario's sub-par OBP is hard to see when you consider his BABIP is well above average.  There is absolutely room for concern.  Hopefully he works on that this offseason. 

[Monkeypaws]

I'd say Rosario 2015 is closer to Bostock 1975 than Santana 2014.

[Seth Stohs]

The walk:strikeout ratio is certainly a concern. I think Rosario was a significantly better prospect (in my opinion) than Santana, but there's reason for concern. I think he'll be fine, though maybe not as good as he has been so far this year. 

[Shane Wahl]

Santana was never remotely close to Rosario as a prospect. Rosario had a career .820 minor league OPS and Santana's is .710. And there are no doubts about Rosario's defense.

 

The lack of walks is an issue, but it isn't a huge one. Modest improvements there can go a long way. I don't see regression at all next year for him, though the numbers might not jump up significantly either. I would doubt he tops .800 OPS next year, but he should be close.

[Shane Wahl]

Also, Rosario's slugging is for real, Santana's in 2014 was quite flukish.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm going to say "kind of". He's due for a little regression in my opinion, but since he's a better "overall" batter than Santana, I think he can keep it up. 2014 Santana got a lot of infield hits due to his speed and that didn't repeat quite as often in 2015. I think Rosario's hitting is a lot more sustainable. He just needs to take some more walks and get that OBP up.

Yeah, pretty much this. I have concerns about Eddie but he's a much better hitter than Santana.

[jimbo92107]

Eddie Rosario is a professional ballplayer from head to toe. He's going to have an excellent, long career in the major leagues, including at least a few appearances in the All Star game. His offensive numbers will continue to improve, including his average and his power.

 

Danny Santana has a chance to be an mlb starting shortstop, but the odds are going down. He needs to manage his emotions better, and develop much better plate discipline.

 

Rosario will have no sophomore slump at all. His game will remain as steady as the look on his face at the plate. Steady Eddie.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think he'll be fine

Question, Seth: are there ever players/prospects who you think will *not* be "fine"?

[David HK]

I'm going to say 'unequal.'  The more I see of Rosario, the more I like him.  I think he's going to improve his zone awareness and walk rate to some extent, (not a great deal because of his innate aggressiveness), and develop even more power as he matures.  Plus, I love his moxie.  The Twinks need a large dose of that, for sure.

[70charger]

I don't really see what made people think that Santana could continue at the level he was on. Nothing in his minor league career gave that impression. It was fun while it lasted, and I was all for keeping him in center field while our other options were guys like Schafer, but major regression was absolutely expected. His 2014 stats were nothing if not an extreme outlier.

 

Rosario's 2015 stats, on the other hand, are much more in line with his minor league stats. I wouldn't be terribly surprised to see some regression from him next year, but I would be no more surprised to see a luck-driven surge. The fact is, I don't see Rosario playing way over his head like Santana clearly was.

[diehardtwinsfan]

While I think he's going to have a better career, and echo what others said that he's a much better prospect than Santana ever was, I suspect he's going to take some lumps next year.  I hope he doesn't, but I'm not seeing it.

[twinssouth]

No, I see no comparison, I'd rather see a steady 270ish 1st yr BA that will get better vs Santana's 1yr aberration. Santana was also dealing with his inconsistent D, Rosario hasn't.

[Boom Boom]

I don't think Rosario will ever walk a lot, but I do think he has it in him to cut down on the strikeouts. From what I've seen he's a good "bad-ball" hitter and has a knack for making contact that hasn't shown up on the stat sheet yet.

 

He's also a plus-defender which is far more than one can say about Santana.

 

If I had to make a prediction, I'd say that I expect 2016 Eddie Rosario to be better than the 2015 version.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If I had to make a prediction, I'd say that I expect 2016 Eddie Rosario to be better than the 2015 version.

That's a pretty bold prediction because if you took 2015 Rosario and extrapolated his PAs to a full season, he's already a 3 WAR player.

[drjim]

I could see him having a slightly higher than average BABIP throughout his career. Dude just seems "hitterish".

 

He'll never be a huge OBP guy because I don't think he'll walk a bunch, but I think he can cut his k rate a little and the power is legit. Add good d to that equation and that is a good player.

 

He might fall back a little next year, but I don't see anything in his profile that suggests a Santana like collapse.

[Shane Wahl]

 

That's a pretty bold prediction because if you took 2015 Rosario and extrapolated his PAs to a full season, he's already a 3 WAR player.

 

Yep.

[Craig Arko]

The kid has been a model of consistency; with an average pretty much always staying in the 270-280 range. This is the mean and there's not much regression. No prolonged slumps, and no real blazing hot streaks either.

 

To get better as he ages, cut down the Ks and turn them into contact, and maybe a bit more extra-base hitting. He'll profile as a great two-hole hitter if he can do those things.

[dougkoebernick]

Great forum topic. While there is always reason for a concern and these issues have all been discussed above, it is interesting to note that Santana was 23 last year and Rosario is 23 this year. This makes no difference at all but it is good to see youth playing important roles for the Twins.

[drjim]

 

I'd say Rosario 2015 is closer to Bostock 1975 than Santana 2014.

 

(This is a little off topic). I heard Reusse make this comparison so I did a little reading on Bostock (who was before my time). Obviously a terrible tragedy, but what a bizarre court case and law at the time.

 

Seems like a good comp though adjusting for realities of the two eras.

[Shane Wahl]

.285/.320/.460 with above average defense in the corners.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Question, Seth: are there ever players/prospects who you think will *not* be "fine"?

 

Yup... you just won't read me writing about that too terrible much. 

[Boom Boom]

That's a pretty bold prediction because if you took 2015 Rosario and extrapolated his PAs to a full season, he's already a 3 WAR player.

True. It just looks to me like Rosario has some significant room to grow offensively.

[dbminn]

 

.285/.320/.460 with above average defense in the corners.

 

I think there is a good chance Rosario can become this player. He just needs to be more selective with his swings to get there. His stats history and his eye/hand coordination indicate he should be able to both reduce Ks and increase BBs by a few percentage points. That being said, don't be surprised if he hits a rough patch early next year. Opposing pitchers will have a complete book on him starting next season. Rosario's success will be all about adjustments.

 

If Rosario ends up being 90% as good as Lyman Bostock, we'll have a special player. I watched Bostock play quite a few games at Metropolitan Stadium. He was ready to have a great career before his untimely death. Of course, I'm a bit biased on the matter (see avatar). For those interested:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMKx2Uc4084

 

[puckstopper1]

Wow - the positivity on this topic is refreshing!  I'm hoping Eddie does continue to produce next year, but the regressions of Santana, Arcia and Vargas (I know, each player is different) should cause us all to temper our expectations for Eddie going forward.

[Turd Furgeson]

I don't see the comparison at all. That said, I don't really see Eddie improving all that much from here. He's not a very toolsy athlete, he can hit the ball but he doesn't have much power and his walk rate is abominable. That said his defense has been a nice surprise. 

[Shane Wahl]

 

Wow - the positivity on this topic is refreshing!  I'm hoping Eddie does continue to produce next year, but the regressions of Santana, Arcia and Vargas (I know, each player is different) should cause us all to temper our expectations for Eddie going forward.

 

True, though you can see differences in how Eddie bats. Actually, Vargas is not a terrible comparison in terms of overall approach, but the hitting skill is better with Eddie. Arcia is the only one who was as highly regarded as a prospect from this group, and we know there are prominent issues with his approach. Eddie has a little bit of Mauer in his game.

[nokomismod]

Eddie has been a pleasure to watch this year. He has the talent and he appears to have the mental make up to have a very good and long MLB career. He is one of the Twins players (along with Sano and Buxton) that hopefully the Twins can build around.

[Steve Lein]

No.

 

Rosario had a much better track record and prospect pedigree than Santana ever did.

 

There's certainly room for improvement in a few areas already mentioned here, but I don't see such a drastic decline like Santana's happening. Eddie is a "professional hitter."