Article: Twins Acquire Kevin Jepsen From Rays

[Mike Sixel]

Ryan didn't really say he'd do Ramos for Capps, did he? come on, now you are just trying to rile me up.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

 

 

Earlier this week Ryan said he would do Ramos for Capps again. Is he just being stubborn or does he just over values RP?

 

I would not think that TR "overvalues" RP's by any means, but he MAY undervalue what skills and #'s are actually important in RP's. If this trade was for Jepsen of 2014 I'd be very excited, but he is not the same pitcher and his velocity is down...and yes, that does matter. His K% has likely been directly effected by that.

[drjim]

 

Ryan didn't really say he'd do Ramos for Capps, did he? come on, now you are just trying to rile me up.

 

He said that a couple of months ago.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Are they a good team? Does this really make a difference for them?

I'm optimistic, at least. And i guess i'm more curious as to what Neil Allen can do with him.

 

It occurs to me that, seeing as Mr. Allen came from the Rays, and may have had some part in their acquisition of him from the Dodgers, that this might have greater immediate value than folk are crediting it for...

 

Yeah, i too am waiting for the related roster decisions to pan out.

 

A seller's market, i presume, and ya gotta give something to get something (else). Violence inherent in the system, and all that. I'm sure i'll keep an eye out for Hu over the next few years just as i will Colabello and other folk who have left the system.

[Mike Sixel]

 

He said that a couple of months ago.

 good googly moogly.

 

Ya, I'm losing confidence in him more and more.

[jorgenswest]

Actually, no.  That's that nature of July 31 for the Twins, under Terry Ryan.

 

St Louis was able to get a similar reliever basically free, and Milwaukee tossed in $2m.  Terry Ryan felt the need to trade away two of your top 30 prospects.  

 

Not to mention, if July 31 is such a tough time to buy help, then, oh, I don't know...don't wait around until July 31.  

 

The Twins bullpen IS probably a little better, but that's because the Twins bullpen is pretty dismal, not because Jepsen is any kind of real difference maker.

The Twins might have been able to get Broxton for Amaurys Minier though Collymore has better career numbers on a similar career path. They might have needed to up the cash. Minier and Collymore are a long way from the majors but they are not nothing.

[jokin]

 

The Twins have finally made their first splash....

 

 

Turns out it was more like their first, and last toe-dip in the water, with nary a ripple to show for it.

 

In the meantime, the Blue Jays (24% comprised of Ex-Twins cast-offs- a total of 6 out of 25) will be lapping the Twins for the last Wild Card spot during their 4 game series next week  (and that's a likely outcome, even with the Twins dodging David Price).

Edited July 31, 2015 by jokin

[shs_59]

In Contrast, the Blue Jays actually Gave Up LESS, also 2 pitchers   ...AND LESS

(Alberto Tirado , a good pitcher......and Jimmy Cordero, a terrible reliever)

to get Ben Revere

 

then the Twins gave to get Kevin Jepsen.

 

Also you add one more C+ prospect to Hu and Tapia and there you could of gotten Yoenis Cespedes.

 

The tigers only got A baller Caessa and Michael Fullmer from the Mets- two RH'ers also

[diehardtwinsfan]

For what it's worth, it sounds like scouts aren't a fan of Hu as much as we are.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/7/31/9081439/rays-trade-kevin-jepsen-twins-prospects-chih-wei-hu-alexis-tapia

 

Still not sure I like it, but it does put things in perspective a bit.

[shs_59]

TR

 

HU  throws a palm Ball !!!!!

 

 

darn now the Rays get to see that beautiful pitch in action.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

For what it's worth, it sounds like scouts aren't a fan of Hu as much as we are.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/7/31/9081439/rays-trade-kevin-jepsen-twins-prospects-chih-wei-hu-alexis-tapia

 

Still not sure I like it, but it does put things in perspective a bit.

 

Except for that end part where he says it seems like a good get for the Rays, and that Hu is probably undervalued in the author's opinion, sure, it sounds great.

[gil4]

 

Seems like about the going price when one looks at the other deals involving relievers this deadline (Clippard, Lowe). Jepsen might be the worse of the relievers, but I don't think Hu is significantly better than any of the other arms dealt in those other deals (Meisner, Wells). I don't think this is a huge overpay.

 

I agree. 

 

On the other hand, the Hu's on first jokes probably bring more value than anything Jepsen will do, unless he changes his name to George and names his kids Elroy and Judy.   

[Monkeypaws]

If the Twins keep Mays in the 7-8 inning pool, and add this guy, I like our chances of getting to Perkins a lot more than with Fien, Boyer, etc.

 

Jepsen's last 2 seasons:

 

LAD - 65 IP - 45H - 75K - 2.63 ERA

 

TBR - 41 IP - 34 H - 34K - 2.81 ERA

 

The Ks are down this season, but I like his IP to hits allowed ratio a lot.

 

He isn't a rental either. Whether you consider it fair value depends on your confidence level of good but not dominant A ball pitchers making it to the bigs.

 

He looks like an upgrade in a position of weakness to me. 

 

Probably not enough to stave off the Jays and Angels/Astros though.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

Let's stop the whole "Ryan would have been damned if he did, damned if he didn't" talk because it's junk and missing the point.

 

All you TR-defenders who think everyone today who is griping about the Jepson-Hu/Tapia trade would be the same people complaining if he did nothing are wrong. The problem with Ryan and the Twins front office is not in how many moves they make, but what types of deals they make.

 

They are never progressive, never forward-thinking, never "ahead of the game."

 

For an example, let's turn today's deal around. The Twins were terrible the previous 4 years. However, they got great performances from a number of relievers during those seasons (Burton, Fien, Perkins twice). The most worthless asset for a losing team to hold on to is quality relief pitching, most significantly a dominant closer.

 

The Twins had the opportunity to "sell high" on these relievers but instead stood pat and watched as each (with Perkins as the exception, but his time could easily come over the rest of his deal - an extension from TR by the way - a "buy high" move) had their skills and value quickly diminish and get nothing for them.

 

Now take the Rays. Their front office, often cited as one of the most innovative in the sport, took the opportunity to flip a decent reliever for some intriguing prospects. God the Tigers just did the same thing with Soria. The A's with Clippard. Jeez, even the inept Phillies got rid of Papelbon and got potential in return.

 

The same Twins FO mindset has held true for position players. Think Willingham in 2012. The Twins have also continued to "buy high" with extensions, like Perkins's, to Suzuki and Hughes last year.

 

The frustration is in the methodology being shown, not in the activity or lack thereof. 

[mlhouse]

One of the problems of Minnesota Twins organization and fans is that they overvalue prospects, while in the real world prospects are overvalued in MLB trades.

 

With the Twins unexpectedy in contention for a wild card playoff birth it makes sense to trade a couple of lower end minor league prospects for a reliever that may help us maintain that position, propping up a bullpen that has been struggling a bit.  If we were not in contention for this playoff spot my attitude would be different.

 

So, if trading Hu, at best the 4th or 5th best pitching prospect AT FT MYERS alone (Stewart, Gonsleves, Jay, and Eades with Slegers, Batts, Van Stesnsel, etc all in the same ballpark) and Tapia, a long shot prospect at best, is such a terrible trade then that is hyperbole at its best. Jensen can help us this season.  Hu is not going to be in the majors for at least 2-3 years and Tapia even longer.  And that also means that many of the pitching prospects that are higher up the ladder all fail.

 

In the end, accumulating talent in the minor leagues is a good thing.  But, you need to evaluate them quickly, move them quickly, and if you have the opportunity to get known value for them make many of those moves.  Look at how many prospects have failed after waiting for a long time for them to move through the majors.  And think about this:  if 2-3 years ago we could have made a major trade using Oswaldo Acia as the prime trade value everyone would be screaming what a bad trade it was.  But, reality changes perceptions.

 

 

[Kwak]

 

Ryan will say that they have Jepsen for 2016 ($4 mil).

 

2015 does not matter (Hughes and Gibson) is not enough for the playoffs especially after a one game wild card game.

 

Instead they should have demoted Pelfry to the bullpen and hoped he was a Wade Davis II.

 

Earlier this week Ryan said he would do Ramos for Capps again. Is he just being stubborn or does he just over values RP?

Ryan said he would Ramos for Capps again?  Did Ryan make the Ramos for Capps trade?--and not Bill Smith?  Did Ryan make the other trade (Tampa Bay--Garza,Bartlett for Young also?  Hmm.

[Dantes929]

Fans push and push for Ryan to make move and then criticize him for dong so.   They say prospects are just prospects and have little value until they prove themselves and then moan when one is dealt for a 2.81 ERA.     Personally, I almost never want the Twins to make moves.   May is under utilized, Berrios could have been promoted to the pen, and Polanco can be give a shot at shortstop.    Fans get what they ask for but apparently never what they want.l

[DocBauer]

I think Hu was a great story and I'm sorry to see him go. Do I think we paid too much? Yes I do. I don't believe we were robbed, however. The jury is still very much out on Hu and how good he might potentially be. (Same as all milb prospects) There are several SP prospects in the system that would rate higher.

 

Not the guy I wanted, but he's not just a rental. He will be re-united with a familiar coaching face in Allen. The 8th inning is now better. This could/should make the 7th inning now better.

 

I'm not totally happy, but I'm not looking for a bridge because a nice A ball prospect is gone for ML help in the pen now and next year.

[SwainZag]

 

Let's stop the whole "Ryan would have been damned if he did, damned if he didn't" talk because it's junk and missing the point.

 

All you TR-defenders who think everyone today who is griping about the Jepson-Hu/Tapia trade would be the same people complaining if he did nothing are wrong. The problem with Ryan and the Twins front office is not in how many moves they make, but what types of deals they make.

 

They are never progressive, never forward-thinking, never "ahead of the game."

 

For an example, let's turn today's deal around. The Twins were terrible the previous 4 years. However, they got great performances from a number of relievers during those seasons (Burton, Fien, Perkins twice). The most worthless asset for a losing team to hold on to is quality relief pitching, most significantly a dominant closer.

 

The Twins had the opportunity to "sell high" on these relievers but instead stood pat and watched as each (with Perkins as the exception, but his time could easily come over the rest of his deal - an extension from TR by the way - a "buy high" move) had their skills and value quickly diminish and get nothing for them.

 

Now take the Rays. Their front office, often cited as one of the most innovative in the sport, took the opportunity to flip a decent reliever for some intriguing prospects. God the Tigers just did the same thing with Soria. The A's with Clippard. Jeez, even the inept Phillies got rid of Papelbon and got potential in return.

 

The same Twins FO mindset has held true for position players. Think Willingham in 2012. The Twins have also continued to "buy high" with extensions, like Perkins's, to Suzuki and Hughes last year.

 

The frustration is in the methodology being shown, not in the activity or lack thereof. 

 

Are you really comparing Clippard, Soria and Papelbon to Burton and Fien?  Are you also criticizing the Perkins extension?  The Twins weren't going sign Willingham to a 3 year free agent deal and deal him 3 months into the season, it's not how you treat newly signed free agents.

 

A lot of your post has clout, but a lot of it you are reaching to make points to slam the front office for.

[tobi0040]

Two thoughts from me

 

First, guys like jepson or better are available every offseason and can be had for 2-6 or 2-8. Do that instead of Boyer, fein, and/or Stauffer and you are not in the position to give up anything for them

 

Having said that and where we are now, scouts are not in love with Hu. Even the mid season rankings haven't moved him up. So given where we are an if we don't view him as a good future starter, then this is not a bad deal for 1.5 years of who is now our best set up guy.

[Squirrel]

 

It occurs to me that, seeing as Mr. Allen came from the Rays, and may have had some part in their acquisition of him from the Dodgers, that this might have greater immediate value than folk are crediting it for...

 

I wondered this, too. Just if Allen had/gave an opinion on Jepsen.

[USAFChief]

 

I wondered this, too. Just if Allen had/gave an opinion on Jepsen.

Does Allen even know Jepsen?  Jepsen pitched for LAA in 2014, no?

[Squirrel]

Does Allen even know Jepsen?  Jepsen pitched for LAA in 2014, no?

Oh, heh. I didn't read enough. Details, details.

[Reider]

It can be argued that the Twins slightly over-paid for Jepsen, but given the circumstances, I think it was a good idea for TR to trade for a set up man in the bullpen. The Wild Card is slowly slipping away from the Twins as the bullpen has been faltering, the Jays have been making moves of their own, and are right on the Twins' heels. Given the circumstances, I"m glad TR made an attempt at preserving a possible playoff berth, even if the perceived price was a bit steep.

 

Of course, if the Twins were 10+ games out this trade never would have happened as it never would have made sense. TR made this trade because it makes sense to him at the moment.

Edited July 31, 2015 by Reider

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Does Allen even know Jepsen?  Jepsen pitched for LAA in 2014, no?

Good point. It is possible Allen's opinion affected affected both trades similarly, but less likely, seeing as he was out of the organization when the first happened, and it doesn't bode anything about Allen's rapport with him.

 

So never mind. I'll try to pay closer attention in the future.

[mikelink45]

doing nothing would have served us better.  Cn't se just develop those minor league arms and use them?

[jun]

 

And why does this surprise anyone? A vet pitcher, with declining numbers. Hmmm, that sounds eerily familiar.

 

And why does this surprise anyone? A vet pitcher, with declining numbers. Hmmm, that sounds eerily familiar.

Capps...

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

Are you really comparing Clippard, Soria and Papelbon to Burton and Fien?  Are you also criticizing the Perkins extension?  The Twins weren't going sign Willingham to a 3 year free agent deal and deal him 3 months into the season, it's not how you treat newly signed free agents.

 

A lot of your post has clout, but a lot of it you are reaching to make points to slam the front office for.

 

The comparison was really with the trade of a reliever, any reliever, off a bad team for prospects that could help with a rebuild. On Willingham, with some foresight, after a 35 homer, 110 RBI year, he probably could have been traded for something. As for 3-month FA trades, ask Yoenis Cespedes if that doesn't happen.

I am criticizing the Perkins extension when it came after a missed opportunity to move a premium lefthanded closer. Perkins is obviously not the problem. He's a big-time performer. But last year, when the Twins were horrible, seeing what the Braves got for Kimbrel, or even what Papelbon went for, I can't help but imagine what the Twins could have gotten if they swayed away from their typical REACTIONARY mindset.

[Shaitan]

I'd take these posts more seriously about how great the Braves and Rays front offices are if they'd won anything in the recent post season. Or gotten to the post season for that matter.

[jimmer]

 

I'd take these posts more seriously about how great the Braves and Rays front offices are if they'd won anything in the recent post season. Or gotten to the post season for that matter.

I'm curious as to who is calling the Braves front office great. 

 

Oh, and you do know the Braves went to the playoffs in 2010,2012 and 2013, right?. And that they fired their GM after not making it in 2014 and have a new GM?  

 

You also know the Rays also have a brand new front office this season and have gone to the playoffs twice since the last time we went?

 

P.S., does you post that apply to the Twins FO? Haven't made the playoffs since 2010 and haven't won a playoff series since 2002.

Edited August 1, 2015 by jimmer