Bovada places Twins over-under at 74 1/2 wins...

[Seth Stohs]

Below you will find a tweet showing the Bovada projections for each team. It shows an over-under for the Twins at 74 1/2. For me, that's a pretty good over-under as I have kind of said they would win 73-77 games this year, and this is right in the middle of that. 

 

So, what do you think? Is it a good over-under? And then go to the Twitter poll and place your vote.

 

https://twitter.com/SethTweets/status/836619981232156676 

 

 

https://twitter.com/TNT_Mariners/status/836618900842278913 

[DaveW]

All things being equal I think this roster could win 78 games, however if they trade away guys like Dozier, Santana and others at the deadline I could see them failing to hit the over.

[Mike Sixel]

Seems about right to me. I think Dave's bet on them winning 71-78 is a pretty good bet. (those are about the numbers, I believe).

[alarp33]

I wouldn't bet that either way, but if I did it would be on the under.  I see very little to no upside on the pitching staff being much better than last year.  

[theBOMisthebomb]

I am not a betting man, especially on Minnesota teams where I am emotionally invested. However, if I was then I would take the over and sweat.

[beckmt]

I would take the under, too big a chance the starting pitching sucks again this year.  Have little faith in the current expected starting staff and expect most to be traded or replaced during the year.  Not a good way to find the over. 

[Steve Lein]

Aligns with my own thoughts. Figure them for about 75 wins as currently projected to be constructed.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd put them at 72.5 or 73.5 so this is a pretty reasonable number in my eyes.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I wouldn't bet that either way, but if I did it would be on the under. I see very little to no upside on the pitching staff being much better than last year.

I don't get this take. One has to believe Berrios is "bomb out of baseball in one season" bad to think this pitching staff won't improve to some extent.

 

Then there's May, Gibson (who was epically bad last season and almost has to improve by default), Hughes, etc.

 

Will this pitching staff be bad? Sure, I think it will. But it probably won't be "one of the worst MLB staffs of the past decade" bad two years running.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I've been saying 70-75 wins (a HUGE improvement), so I'll take the under.

[Bob Sacamento]

There is a reason why the House wins and it's lines like this.  If everything breaks right: Sano, Buxton, Kepler and the rest of the kids all take steps forward, no major injuries, Castro improves the ERA, bullpen doesn't self-implode, rest of the division sucks etc then yes 75 wins is not out of the question.  But the chances of all that happening are less than likely and a 70 win season is still a stark improvement over the 2016's season.

[Vanimal46]

I've been bullish on the Twins losing another 90+ games this season, so going with the under. Even though this is a fair line to bet on. 

[amjgt]

 

All things being equal I think this roster could win 78 games, however if they trade away guys like Dozier, Santana and others at the deadline I could see them failing to hit the over.

 

If they are on track to finish with 78 wins, there is no way they will trade those guys away.

[Blake]

71 wins. Not going to hedge, waffle, waver, hesitate or change my mind. 

[DaveW]

 

If they are on track to finish with 78 wins, there is no way they will trade those guys away.

If they are smart they would trade those guys away.

[alarp33]

 

I don't get this take. One has to believe Berrios is "bomb out of baseball in one season" bad to think this pitching staff won't improve to some extent.

Then there's May, Gibson (who was epically bad last season and almost has to improve by default), Hughes, etc.

Will this pitching staff be bad? Sure, I think it will. But it probably won't be "one of the worst MLB staffs of the past decade" bad two years running.

 

Pretty simple I think; 

 

1) I don't think the defense will be all that impressive, most notably the left side of the IF. 

 

2) As for the starting pitchers themselves;

 

I don't think Berrios will bomb out of baseball, He also accounted for only 58 of the hundreds of innings of crappy pitching last year, and is looking slated for AAA to start this season.  

 

I would wager heavily that Ervin Santana will not repeat his 2016.  

I'm big on Trevor May, and hope he is in the rotation - but lets be honest, he's far from a known or expected commodity at this point.  

I do think Gibson will bounce back to a degree.  I don't think Santiago has much (any) upside. I am not sure how anyone could count on anything from Hughes.  

 

How is that not a bottom 3 rotation in all of baseball?  

 

3) The bullpen stinks, and while there may be upside in the minors, we've been hearing that for a couple years now and have seen nothing.  So color me skeptical.  

 

What upside is there to make anyone realistically believe that isn't a bottom 3-5 bullpen in all of baseball?

[Doomtints]

A little aggressive but not too much.  I could see it.  

[Doomtints]

 

There is a reason why the House wins and it's lines like this.  If everything breaks right: Sano, Buxton, Kepler and the rest of the kids all take steps forward, no major injuries, Castro improves the ERA, bullpen doesn't self-implode, rest of the division sucks etc then yes 75 wins is not out of the question.  But the chances of all that happening are less than likely and a 70 win season is still a stark improvement over the 2016's season.

 

But then Dozier and possibly others get traded and the team coasts to the finish line as in previous years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Pretty simple I think; 

 

1) I don't think the defense will be all that impressive, most notably the left side of the IF. 

 

2) As for the starting pitchers themselves;

 

I don't think Berrios will bomb out of baseball, He also accounted for only 58 of the hundreds of innings of crappy pitching last year, and is looking slated for AAA to start this season.  

 

I would wager heavily that Ervin Santana will not repeat his 2016.  

I'm big on Trevor May, and hope he is in the rotation - but lets be honest, he's far from a known or expected commodity at this point.  

I do think Gibson will bounce back to a degree.  I don't think Santiago has much (any) upside. I am not sure how anyone could count on anything from Hughes.  

 

How is that not a bottom 3 rotation in all of baseball?  

 

3) The bullpen stinks, and while there may be upside in the minors, we've been hearing that for a couple years now and have seen nothing.  So color me skeptical.  

 

What upside is there to make anyone realistically believe that isn't a bottom 3-5 bullpen in all of baseball?

1. The left side of the infield was terrible last season, too... Except this season, the outfield should be considerably better.

 

2. It's possible, maybe even likely, the Twins have a bottom three rotation in all of baseball but still improve by five or more wins. They were that bad last season. With Berrios and May, I doubt we see the dumpster fire we saw last season and if we do, the Twins are in real trouble going forward. Hell, you get three league average performances from Berrios, May, and Santana and the Twins vault forward a half dozen wins. Improvement is not difficult to achieve given the bar set last year.

 

3. I don't expect too much improvement from the bullpen, at least in the first half of the season. Hard to predict after that point.

[alarp33]

 

1. The left side of the infield was terrible last season, too... Except this season, the outfield should be considerably better.

 

2. It's possible, maybe even likely, the Twins have a bottom three rotation in all of baseball but still improve by five or more wins. They were that bad last season. With Berrios and May, I doubt we see the dumpster fire we saw last season and if we do, the Twins are in real trouble going forward. Hell, you get three league average performances from Berrios, May, and Santana and the Twins vault forward a half dozen wins. Improvement is not difficult to achieve given the bar set last year.

 

3. I don't expect too much improvement from the bullpen, at least in the first half of the season. Hard to predict after that point.

 

I'm really not sure I understand your argument.  You seem to agree its likely they have a bottom 3 rotation, and bottom 3 bullpen in all of baseball... but called out my take that the pitching staff still stinks, and has very little upside.  

 

I mean I like back and forth, but I've gotta be honest I wasn't expecting anyone to think me saying the pitching staff stunk was some sort of hot take / way out there prediction.  

 

A 6 game improvement based on the pitching staff being somewhat better, still leaves you 9 win shorts of 74.5 fwiw

 

My original point was; if I'm going to bet the over... I need more to go off of than, a historically bad pitching staff is not historically bad (even though it includes basically all of the same pieces).  I like Trevor May, I like Jose Berrios... I dont think they are going to make this staff competent enough to win 75+ games

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm really not sure I understand your argument.  You seem to agree its likely they have a bottom 3 rotation, and bottom 3 bullpen in all of baseball... but called out my take that the pitching staff still stinks, and has very little upside.  

 

I mean I like back and forth, but I've gotta be honest I wasn't expecting anyone to think me saying the pitching staff stunk was some sort of hot take / way out there prediction.  

 

A 6 game improvement based on the pitching staff being somewhat better, still leaves you 9 win shorts of 74.5 fwiw

The Twins were -12 wins in sequencing last year and -7 wins in pythag.

 

Unless we expect the Twins to be horrible underperformers a second year running (after being fortuitous overperformers the year before), the 59 win total from 2016 should be mostly disregarded. From a pure run-scoring and prevention standpoint, they were a mid-60s win team last season. From a sequencing standpoint, they were a low 70s win team.

 

Any kind of improvement from the pitching staff should move them north of 70 wins this season unless they, again, get really unlucky.*

 

*injury considerations aside

[diehardtwinsfan]

It's spring and optimism reigns supreme. I'm taking the over.

[DocBauer]

I think the 75 wins is about right. I am also not a betting man, but if I were forced to, I'd take the over. (Over meaning, of course, even 76 wins).

 

I say this based on a couple of factors:

 

1] As Brock reminds, the Twins "should" have been a low 70's win team last season based on projections. As also stated, just don't feel they will fail a poorly, or have as much poor luck this season.

 

2] The OF defense will be better this season. Catcher will be no worse, probably better. The left side of the infield defense couldn't possibly be worse, could it? So at least a slight gain defensively.

 

3] I am not bullish on the rotation. But really, it has nowhere to go but up. Gibson will be better. I like both May and Berrios and believe both will take steps forward this season, perhaps not all in one huge stride, but they will be OK, perhaps good, and are better options than others marched out to the hill last season. I still think Santana will be solid again this season.

 

So yeah...forced to bet, I'd pick the over.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think the 75 wins is about right. I am also not a betting man, but if I were forced to, I'd take the over. (Over meaning, of course, even 76 wins).

 

I say this based on a couple of factors:

 

1] As Brock reminds, the Twins "should" have been a low 70's win team last season based on projections. As also stated, just don't feel they will fail a poorly, or have as much poor luck this season.

 

2] The OF defense will be better this season. Catcher will be no worse, probably better. The left side of the infield defense couldn't possibly be worse, could it? So at least a slight gain defensively.

 

3] I am not bullish on the rotation. But really, it has nowhere to go but up. Gibson will be better. I like both May and Berrios and believe both will take steps forward this season, perhaps not all in one huge stride, but they will be OK, perhaps good, and are better options than others marched out to the hill last season. I still think Santana will be solid again this season.

 

So yeah...forced to bet, I'd pick the over.

One, relatively new and unproven, metric thinks we should have been a low 70's win team.

They all say we should have been better, but baseruns is especially generous towards our season.

[snepp]

My gut says 74 wins, so I guess I take the under.

[Guest]

It's going to be an interesting year in the Central. Mighty Whities are in the middle of a rebuild and could trade most of their remaining assets. KC could start a fire sale to rebuild a depleted minor league system before a bunch of people leave as free agents at the end of the year. Detroit, having just suffered the loss of their owner, may also plunge into rebuilding in connection with restocking their weak minors and adopting a more conservative fiscal policy. Then there's our local heroes, who have more than hinted that veterans with value may be traded for younger players, to improve the strength of the 2018-2021 clubs.

 

All those teams are going to play each other. Who knows who would win if they all succeed with their trading strategies? One guess, however, is that the Twins' younger players, e.g., Buxton and Sano, supplemented by Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, May, Mauer (yes, he'll still be here and he does have value), Meija, Castro and some of the younger relievers, as well as hope for Vargas or Park to contribute, will be better than what Chicago and KC will have left after their trades. Detroit will probably have a roster of Hall of Fame stars and scrubs, because Cabrera and Verlander are probably going to be too expensive to trade, so predicting competition against them is harder, although their scrubs (including Mike Pelfrey!) are going to be woeful.

 

Total guess? Even if the Twins can trade Dozier, Santana and Hughes, the remaining players will play well, especially against the other weak Central teams, and the delta in value between the traded veterans and their replacements is not that great: over.

[Linus]

I think the over / number is really close. I am taking the over with conviction.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Hell, you get three league average performances from Berrios, May, and Santana and the Twins vault forward a half dozen wins. Improvement is not difficult to achieve given the bar set last year.

Wouldn't a league average performance from Ervin Santana actually count as a step back, relative to 2017?

[Brock Beauchamp]

One, relatively new and unproven, metric thinks we should have been a low 70's win team.

Which is why I also pointed out they were a 66 win team by pythag.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Wouldn't a league average performance from Ervin Santana actually count as a step back, relative to 2017?

Sure, but every starter was so bad after Santana that three league average performances is still a huge net gain over 2016.