Bovada places Twins over-under at 74 1/2 wins...

[Mr. Brooks]

Sure, but if three of those guys are playing to their potential, it's tough to see a bottom five finish again, even with this pitching staff.

 

It means most of those players turn out to be mediocre, not the stars we hoped a few of them would become.

 

And that's not even bringing up some of the other guys like May and Gibson. Sure, their ceilings aren't sky-high but if they're terrible, that's a blow to the team going forward.

 

This is one of the youngest rosters in baseball. It's a knock to the franchise if they finish in the cellar again. None of their players are rookies at this point, they need to progress.

Our 40 man roster is actually right in the middle. 13th youngest roster.

25 man rosters not set yet, so no data on that yet, which could obviously be different.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Hughes and Santiago will probably get a lot of rope. Ervin obviously too, and he is capable of down years. Heck, Gibson only has 2 years club control left after this one, so I'm not sure how critical he is to the future anymore. Vogelsong might get some starts and innings. Perkins in the pen, plus Kintzler and Belisle. Even Pressly only has 2 years control beyond 2017. Plenty of opportunities to fail in 2017 for guys who aren't really part of our core going forward.

 

I could absolutely see a solid showing from Buxton and Sano, plus a solid second half from Berrios, and this club still finishing with 70 wins.

[Mike Sixel]

MN is the 9th youngest team....according to ESPN. When Vogelsgang or even Haley replace Berrios, and Tonkin is off the roster for an old guy, and the backup catcher is over 30, I'd guess they won't even be in the top 10 for youngest....

[LaBombo]

 

MN is the 9th youngest team....according to ESPN. When Vogelsgang or even Haley replace Berrios, and Tonkin is off the roster for an old guy, and the backup catcher is over 30, I'd guess they won't even be in the top 10 for youngest....

 

Yep, and even without those changes they're already old for a team that's allegedly rebuilding from the worst season in its history.

[Pius Jefferson]

 

It kinda would, actually. It means most of Kepler, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, et al have failed to turn into productive MLB players.

 

There's other problems like pitching and infield defense that could keep the team one of the five worst records in baseball. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I predict every year that the Twins will have a winning record.

 

Which, like a broken clock, makes me right about twice a decade.

[USAFChief]

The bulk of "the best minor league system" is in the big leagues, and theres little in the way of potential star power anywhere close that can be added in the next couple years. If they are a bottom five team in 2017 it's officially time to panic.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The bulk of "the best minor league system" is in the big leagues, and theres little in the way of potential star power anywhere close that can be added in the next couple years. If they are a bottom five team in 2017 it's officially time to panic.

Yep. Wishing doom upon the 2017 Twins is wishing for a bad franchise for several years as the team rebuilds AGAIN.

 

Sano and Buxton are entering their third seasons. No one is a rookie. If this team wins 70 games, that means most of their young players failed, probably in a big way. This season doesn't hinge on the Kinzlers and Hughes of the world. The part of the roster that matters is either first-year or pre-arbitration and it's a significant portion of the roster.

[Platoon]

Yep, and even without those changes they're already old for a team that's allegedly rebuilding from the worst season in its history.

And for a team rebuilding for allegedly the last six years, or allegedly should have been! .

[Platoon]

Yep. Wishing doom upon the 2017 Twins is wishing for a bad franchise for several years as the team rebuilds AGAIN.

 

Sano and Buxton are entering their third seasons. No one is a rookie. If this team wins 70 games, that means most of their young players failed, probably in a big way. This season doesn't hinge on the Kinzlers and Hughes of the world. The part of the roster that matters is either first-year or pre-arbitration and it's a significant portion of the roster.

In a manner I agree. But they could win around 70 and the young untethers could have nice years. It's the pitching that could hold them back. Time will tell, but a couple pitchers have to come out of the woodwork to make this a .500 team.

[alarp33]

 

 

 

Sano and Buxton are entering their third seasons. No one is a rookie. If this team wins 70 games, that means most of their young players failed, probably in a big way. This season doesn't hinge on the Kinzlers and Hughes of the world. The part of the roster that matters is either first-year or pre-arbitration and it's a significant portion of the roster.

 

Buxton has 427 career at bats, he's not a 3rd year player... It's very possible he'll have a very up and down season and still turn into a star in 2018.  

 

Pitching is half of the game, so yes, this season does "hinge on the Kinzlers and Hughes of the world"

[beckmt]

 

It kinda would, actually. It means most of Kepler, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, et al have failed to turn into productive MLB players.

It would mean the pitching staff of veterans to start turns into a dumpster fire and the younger pitchers are rushed to fill the gap, or they just let the season play out.  I could see an ERA of about 5.5 in the worst case scenario.

[DocBauer]

While last year was last year and there shouldn't be a direct carryover since every season is its own entity, the Twins weren't "supposed" to be that bad. As pointed out in a previous post, the pitching staff could be awful, (not saying they will be necessarily), and STILL show improvement based on historical lows and the team could/should still improve their record. And while I don't have the numbers in front of me, during a radio broadcast in the second half last seasin, there was an interesting Stat that the Twins had a better record against winning record teams than losing teams. There is a nice young core of young players still finding themselves and improving and growing. I see a better bullpen, slightly better overall defense, and at least some improvement to the rotation.

 

All of this is why I pick the over, though not a betting man.

 

Like just about every season, the team the Twins field will not be the same team that ends the season. May not even be the same team two months in to the season. I actually see the Twins with a better second half record than the first as promotions take place and the youngsters begin to round in to form.

[kab21]

I will take the under since I would have placed the O/U at 72.5 or 73.5. I think the Twins need quite a few things to break their way to sniff .500 (say 78-79 wins) but only a couple of things need to go wrong to be in the 65-70 range. Again...

Just my two cents. I think the team has potential but I need to start seeing production out of the young core instead seeing potential. Some have had great (or at least very good) moments but none have had any sustained production.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It would mean the pitching staff of veterans to start turns into a dumpster fire and the younger pitchers are rushed to fill the gap, or they just let the season play out.  I could see an ERA of about 5.5 in the worst case scenario.

The Twins had one of the worst staffs in recent MLB history (comparatively to other teams in the league) last season and their team ERA was 5.09.

 

Oakland had the second-worst staff in the AL, which was a full half-run better than the Twins. The gap between 2nd and 14th was smaller than the gap between 14th and 15th.

 

I just scanned the AL and had to go all the way back to 2001 to find a pitching staff that was a full half-run behind the second-worst team (the Rangers did it that season).

[Vanimal46]

 

Buxton has 427 career at bats, he's not a 3rd year player... It's very possible he'll have a very up and down season and still turn into a star in 2018.  

 

Pitching is half of the game, so yes, this season does "hinge on the Kinzlers and Hughes of the world"

I agree and expect Buxton to have a very up and down season if they give him 500+ PAs. They need to do that in order for him to progress towards stardom in 2018 and beyond. 

 

I still think this pitching staff has little upside and a ton of downside. This looks like maybe the worst starting rotation in baseball, and a bottom 3 bullpen. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I agree and expect Buxton to have a very up and down season if they give him 500+ PAs. They need to do that in order for him to progress towards stardom in 2018 and beyond.

Buxton can't be more up and down than he was last season or it's highly unlikely he'll ever be a good baseball player.

 

Byron ended 2016 with a decent stat line. People seem to forget that happened. Extrapolate his 2016 play over a full season and he's a league average starter, somewhere around 3 fWAR.

 

If he regresses from that point, it becomes almost impossible for him to ever become an above-average player going forward.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sano and Buxton are entering their third seasons. No one is a rookie. If this team wins 70 games, that means most of their young players failed, probably in a big way. This season doesn't hinge on the Kinzlers and Hughes of the world. The part of the roster that matters is either first-year or pre-arbitration and it's a significant portion of the roster.

I think you are over-estimating the number of key young players projected to contribute significantly in 2017, or under-estimating the win total that could potentially produce a bottom five finish.

 

By my count, there are only ~6 key young players projected to start on opening day (Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, and May).  Berrios should come up at some point too, but it's not clear when, and a partial season for him may only offset some DL time from the rest of the group.  Chargois is nice but he's a reliever which limits his potential contribution.  And Vargas would probably be stretching it as a "key young player".

 

Last year, the Twins won 59 games while getting 6.7 bWAR from that group.  They could average almost 2 bWAR improvement each and we could still finish around 70 wins and potentially a bottom five finish (70 wins had us tied for 4th worst record in 2014).

 

I know we were unlucky with sequencing in 2016, by about ~7 wins per pythag/bWAR.  But even if we get neutral luck in 2017 (no guarantee), Dozier and Ervin Santana (combined 10.3 bWAR in 2016) could easily drop ~5 WAR combined themselves.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think you are over-estimating the number of key young players projected to contribute significantly in 2017, or under-estimating the win total that could potentially produce a bottom five finish.

 

By my count, there are only ~6 key young players projected to start on opening day (Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, and May).  Berrios should come up at some point too, but it's not clear when, and a partial season for him may only offset some DL time from the rest of the group.  Chargois is nice but he's a reliever which limits his potential contribution.  And Vargas would probably be stretching it as a "key young player".

 

Last year, the Twins won 59 games while getting 6.7 bWAR from that group.  They could average almost 2 bWAR improvement each and we could still finish around 70 wins and potentially a bottom five finish (70 wins had us tied for 4th worst record in 2014).

 

I know we were unlucky with sequencing in 2016, by about ~7 wins per pythag/bWAR.  But even if we get neutral luck in 2017 (no guarantee), Dozier and Ervin Santana (combined 10.3 bWAR in 2016) could easily drop ~5 WAR combined themselves.

 

Agreed. IMO, people vastly over estimate how far into the rebuild this team is. There might be 1 long term starting pitcher on the roster on opening day. There might be 2 or 3 RPs. There will be zero 1B, C, 2B, probably SS, DH. They are actually getting OLDER this year, not younger. This thought that they are one of the younger teams around (probably won't be in the top 10) and that they are well into the rebuild? Data doesn't show that at all. 

 

Every OF could be worth 2 more WAR, and Dozier and Santana could regress, and the other starters could be about the same....and they'd still win 74 or so games. They never fully committed to rebuilding, and this very slow trudge to respectability is the result.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think you are over-estimating the number of key young players projected to contribute significantly in 2017, or under-estimating the win total that could potentially produce a bottom five finish.

 

By my count, there are only ~6 key young players projected to start on opening day (Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, and May).  Berrios should come up at some point too, but it's not clear when, and a partial season for him may only offset some DL time from the rest of the group.  Chargois is nice but he's a reliever which limits his potential contribution.  And Vargas would probably be stretching it as a "key young player".

 

Last year, the Twins won 59 games while getting 6.7 bWAR from that group.  They could average almost 2 bWAR improvement each and we could still finish around 70 wins and potentially a bottom five finish (70 wins had us tied for 4th worst record in 2014).

 

I know we were unlucky with sequencing in 2016, by about ~7 wins per pythag/bWAR.  But even if we get neutral luck in 2017 (no guarantee), Dozier and Ervin Santana (combined 10.3 bWAR in 2016) could easily drop ~5 WAR combined themselves.

I see your point but I look at the numbers very differently.

 

Berrios should get at least 25 starts if healthy. I don't think whether he's on the Opening Day roster is going to affect his playing time that much.

 

May was an oft-injured reliever last season. As a starter, that contribution needs to skyrocket or it's a problem going forward.

 

Gibson was epically terrible last season. While he's not as important as others, the Twins need a better performance from him this season.

 

Buxton and Sano don't need to contribute more, they need to contribute a lot more. Last season, they combined for just 3 fWAR. The Twins need that out of each of them this season.

 

Kepler and Rosario combined for just 2 fWAR last season. Again, that number needs to move toward 6 or we need to be really concerned about them as players.

 

Sure, we can expect some regression from Santana and Dozier but if the young kids don't make up for that regression and tack on several wins beyond that point, it's a problem for the franchise in future seasons. And Santana wasn't that valuable last season. He didn't hit 4 WAR in either Fangraphs or BB-Ref. If he regresses but stays on the field, it's unlikely he'll drop much.

 

On top of all those people mentioned, the Twins received negative WAR performances from a slew of pitchers last season. If that repeats, it's a big problem going forward. It means May, Gibson, and Berrios have likely failed and no young arms from the farm stepped forward in the bullpen.

 

The Twins need to take a step forward this season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Every OF could be worth 2 more WAR, and Dozier and Santana could regress, and the other starters could be about the same....and they'd still win 74 or so games.

I agree but I'd be quite happy with 74 wins. In fact, that's right around where I project the team to finish, 73-74 wins.

 

My argument is that those outfielders (and Sano/Berrios) need to produce 2-3 wins apiece or this team's "rebuild" may stall out and then we start over again from scratch.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I see your point but I look at the numbers very differently.

 

Berrios should get at least 25 starts if healthy. I don't think whether he's on the Opening Day roster is going to affect his playing time that much.

 

May was an oft-injured reliever last season. As a starter, that contribution needs to skyrocket or it's a problem going forward.

 

Gibson was epically terrible last season. While he's not as important as others, the Twins need a better performance from him this season.

 

Buxton and Sano don't need to contribute more, they need to contribute a lot more. Last season, they combined for just 3 fWAR. The Twins need that out of each of them this season.

 

Kepler and Rosario combined for just 2 fWAR last season. Again, that number needs to move toward 6 or we need to be really concerned about them as players.

 

Sure, we can expect some regression from Santana and Dozier but if the young kids don't make up for that regression and tack on several wins beyond that point, it's a problem for the franchise in future seasons. And Santana wasn't that valuable last season. He didn't hit 4 WAR in either Fangraphs or BB-Ref. If he regresses but stays on the field, it's unlikely he'll drop much.

 

On top of all those people mentioned, the Twins received negative WAR performances from a slew of pitchers last season. If that repeats, it's a big problem going forward. It means May, Gibson, and Berrios have likely failed and no young arms from the farm stepped forward in the bullpen.

 

The Twins need to take a step forward this season.

 

They'd have to actually promote someone for them to contribute. So far, it looks like they are getting older at C and RP, not going with youth. I'll believe it when I see it, Brock.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I agree but I'd be quite happy with 74 wins. In fact, that's right around where I project the team to finish, 73-74 wins.

 

My argument is that those outfielders (and Sano/Berrios) need to produce 2-3 wins apiece or this team's "rebuild" may stall out and then we start over again from scratch.

 

and I thought 74 wins was bottom five, but that appears to be around the 10th worst record last year. Who knew?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They'd have to actually promote someone for them to contribute. So far, it looks like they are getting older at C and RP, not going with youth. I'll believe it when I see it, Brock.

Mike, it's still early March and this is an entirely new front office. We have no idea what to expect from April through July. I'll be as disappointed as anyone if the front office drags its feet with promotions but to imply they won't do it before they've really made a decision on anything is projecting the flaws of the old front office onto the new.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

and I thought 74 wins was bottom five, but that appears to be around the 10th worst record last year. Who knew?

Ah, there you go. When I hear "bottom five", I think "sub-70 win total".

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree but I'd be quite happy with 74 wins. In fact, that's right around where I project the team to finish, 73-74 wins.

 

My argument is that those outfielders (and Sano/Berrios) need to produce 2-3 wins apiece or this team's "rebuild" may stall out and then we start over again from scratch.

74 wins, with a tiny bit of bad luck, is 70 wins and potentially a bottom five finish (as recently as 2014).

[USAFChief]

 

They'd have to actually promote someone for them to contribute. So far, it looks like they are getting older at C and RP, not going with youth. I'll believe it when I see it, Brock.

They will have young players at all three OF spots to start the season, 3b, and SS.  Possibly backup C.  Parts of the pitching staff.

 

They don't have much else that's promotable, and I'm pretty confident the young pitching they do have will be in the big leagues when ready.  Who else should be up opening day?

 

The group they currently have needs to take a step forward this year, or it's unlikely that happens any time soon.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

74 wins, with a tiny bit of bad luck, is 70 wins and potentially a bottom five finish (as recently as 2014).

Sure, there's some wiggle room and that's where interpretation needs to come into play. If the Twins play at a 78 win pace and get slammed with bad luck, winning only 69 games in the process, that's a different story.

 

But if the Twins play at a 68 win pace and win 68 games, that's a problem, IMO.

 

I scanned the past 6-7 years of MLB standings and bottom five puts a team no higher than 70 wins in almost all seasons (IIRC there was one exception). At least half of those seasons, it puts a team down well into 60s win territory.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike, it's still early March and this is an entirely new front office. We have no idea what to expect from April through July. I'll be as disappointed as anyone if the front office drags its feet with promotions but to imply they won't do it before they've really made a decision on anything is projecting the flaws of the old front office onto the new.

 

We just won't agree on this. Not promoting the young RPs at this point, imo, is silly. Many are 24+ years old. It's time to see what some of them have. They aren't going to cut 4 RPs in the first half of the year. We'll be lucky if they cut 2. It appears they are going to go old at C, not young. We know they tried desperately to sign 41 year old DHs. Not one thing they have done has indicated a desire to get younger at this point, does it? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

We just won't agree on this. Not promoting the young RPs at this point, imo, is silly. Many are 24+ years old. It's time to see what some of them have. They aren't going to cut 4 RPs in the first half of the year. We'll be lucky if they cut 2. It appears they are going to go old at C, not young. We know they tried desperately to sign 41 year old DHs. Not one thing they have done has indicated a desire to get younger at this point, does it? 

Time will tell. As I've said in the past, I'll be disappointed if roster cuts don't come fast and furious as the season unfolds.*

 

*provided several players are terrible, which is almost a certainty in my eyes