Bovada places Twins over-under at 74 1/2 wins...

[Vanimal46]

 

Buxton can't be more up and down than he was last season or it's highly unlikely he'll ever be a good baseball player.

 

Byron ended 2016 with a decent stat line. People seem to forget that happened. Extrapolate his 2016 play over a full season and he's a league average starter, somewhere around 3 fWAR.

 

If he regresses from that point, it becomes almost impossible for him to ever become an above-average player going forward.

 

I don't expect his stat line to be worse than last year... But I do expect him to have weeks of very poor play followed up by September 2016 type play. He should be in the .725-.750 OPS range this season, then progress to .800+ OPS in 2018 and beyond. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't expect his stat line to be worse than last year... But I do expect him to have weeks of very poor play followed up by September 2016 type play. He should be in the .725-.750 OPS range this season, then progress to .800+ OPS in 2018 and beyond. 

I'd be pretty happy with that, just pointing out that Buxton needs to, at the very least, get somewhere around league average overall. His bat can be relatively weak and he's still a pretty good player.

 

If he's a .750 OPS player, he should be well above average overall. He's probably somewhere around a 4 WAR player at that point.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I see your point but I look at the numbers very differently.

 

Berrios should get at least 25 starts if healthy. I don't think whether he's on the Opening Day roster is going to affect his playing time that much.

 

May was an oft-injured reliever last season. As a starter, that contribution needs to skyrocket or it's a problem going forward.

 

Gibson was epically terrible last season. While he's not as important as others, the Twins need a better performance from him this season.

 

Buxton and Sano don't need to contribute more, they need to contribute a lot more. Last season, they combined for just 3 fWAR. The Twins need that out of each of them this season.

 

Kepler and Rosario combined for just 2 fWAR last season. Again, that number needs to move toward 6 or we need to be really concerned about them as players.

 

Sure, we can expect some regression from Santana and Dozier but if the young kids don't make up for that regression and tack on several wins beyond that point, it's a problem for the franchise in future seasons. And Santana wasn't that valuable last season. He didn't hit 4 WAR in either Fangraphs or BB-Ref. If he regresses but stays on the field, it's unlikely he'll drop much.

 

On top of all those people mentioned, the Twins received negative WAR performances from a slew of pitchers last season. If that repeats, it's a big problem going forward. It means May, Gibson, and Berrios have likely failed and no young arms from the farm stepped forward in the bullpen.

 

The Twins need to take a step forward this season.

 

I think you are stretching the meaning of key young player that's vital to our future.  Kyle Gibson is 29 years old and had already used up 50% of his team control (and all of his cheap years).  Yes, we'd like to see him improve in 2017, but if he doesn't, that alone doesn't mean we're doomed going forward.

 

You've identified 7 "young" players in this post, and adding Polanco makes 8.  If 5 or 6 of those guys improve, but 2 don't, and we finish around 70 wins, does that mean we are doomed going forward?

 

(Also, Ervin Santana had 3.8 bWAR last season, only his second season ever above 3.0.  He has 22.3 career bWAR in 12 MLB seasons.  It's absolutely possible that he drops to 2 WAR in his age 34 season.)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think you are stretching the meaning of key young player that's vital to our future.  Kyle Gibson is 29 years old and had already used up 50% of his team control (and all of his cheap years).  Yes, we'd like to see him improve in 2017, but if he doesn't, that alone doesn't mean we're doomed going forward.

 

You've identified 7 "young" players in this post, and adding Polanco makes 8.  If 5 or 6 of those guys improve, but 2 don't, and we finish around 70 wins, does that mean we are doomed going forward?

 

(Also, Ervin Santana had 3.8 bWAR last season, only his second season ever above 3.0.  He has 22.3 career bWAR in 12 MLB seasons.  It's absolutely possible that he drops to 2 WAR in his age 34 season.)

I pointed out Gibson only because he was so bad last season. Because FanGraphs uses FIP in its calculation, he looked just kinda bad... But the actual results were horrible (-0.7 bWAR). Gibson either needs to improve or he needs to be replaced.

 

I was also calculating a 2 WAR drop in Santana, BTW. We're in agreement there.

 

If the Twins finish with 70 wins and play at that pace (no luck involved), it's hard to say what the future looks like for the team. It depends on who did what and when.

 

But "bottom five" is not synonymous with "fifth worst". My problem with that statement is that the Twins aren't a kinda-bad-but-if-you-squint-right-you-can-see-something-there team, it's that they're possibly the worst team in baseball again. Like "64 wins bad".

 

And that'd be disastrous to the team going forward. Once you get around 70 wins, it's an analysis game... But given the statements made previously in the thread, 70 wins is best case scenario for a bottom five finish.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Brock: Gibson was +0.6 bWAR last season. I think you are looking at WAA instead.

[Mike Sixel]

Either way, I remain a believer in Buxton, Sano and Kepler (and Polanco if 2B opens up) to be part of the long term success of this team, though I have doubts about Buxton's ability to hit still. Those top 2 are the key pieces (which says something about the drafts lately......), and I agree, if they don't work out, this team is in real trouble. But two players isn't enough to build a future around (ask Mike Trout), and until we see some actual progress from the other young players (none of whom figure to be in MN to start the year.....not ONE rookie will be added to start the year, and Berrios is probably in AAA), I don't see much of a rebuild at all. Frankly, if Gordon doesn't work out, they have ZERO position players that look like legit starters coming for 2+ years. How is that even possible? Oh, right, they used high draft picks on RPs that they refuse to promote.....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Brock: Gibson was +0.6 bWAR last season. I think you are looking at WAA instead.

Ah, my mistake. Eyes drifted over a row while scanning the chart. Either way, he needs to be better or he needs to be moved out of the rotation.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sure, there's some wiggle room and that's where interpretation needs to come into play. If the Twins play at a 78 win pace and get slammed with bad luck, winning only 69 games in the process, that's a different story.

 

But if the Twins play at a 68 win pace and win 68 games, that's a problem, IMO.

 

I scanned the past 6-7 years of MLB standings and bottom five puts a team no higher than 70 wins in almost all seasons (IIRC there was one exception). At least half of those seasons, it puts a team down well into 60s win territory.

5th worst win total in MLB:

 

2016: 68 (actually tied for 2nd worst)

2015: 68 (tied for 4th worst)

2014: 70 (tied for 4th worst)

2013: 66 (tied for 4th worst)

2012: 68

2011: 71

2010: 67

 

On average, 68 wins.  Only 2 of 7 years below that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Brock, the whole "bottom five finish" started with the following comment:

 

I'll take the under.

 

Honestly, I don't think it would be the worst thing in the world top get another top 5 pick.

 

To which you responded, "It kinda would, actually" (be the worst thing in the world).

 

I still don't get that.  There is ample room for encouraging performances by most of our young players while also finishing under 75 wins ("the under" relative to this thread title).  And once you're at 74 wins, it only takes 3-6 fewer to perhaps get the 5th pick in the draft, which could be due to any number of factors.

 

Obviously it's also possible to craft a disappointing season in that same range -- if the young players all struggle, and we win ~70 based on good sequencing/pythag luck or fluke performances.

 

I'm not sure either is more likely, at this point.  There aren't quite enough young players on the roster to think good performances by most will easily yield 75 or even 71 wins.  And there are still enough middling veterans to help hold that win total down too (the catchers, Mauer, Grossman, Park, Hughes. Santiago, Vogelsong, maybe even Gibson, and most the bullpen).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This whole "bottom five finish" thing started with the follo commenting 

 

5th worst win total in MLB:

 

2016: 68 (actually tied for 2nd worst)

2015: 68 (tied for 4th worst)

2014: 70 (tied for 4th worst)

2013: 66 (tied for 4th worst)

2012: 68

2011: 71

2010: 67

 

On average, 68 wins.  Only 2 of 7 years below that.

No offense intended but I don't really understand what you're arguing here.

 

Again, "bottom five" is not the same as "fifth worst". Under the exact definition of "bottom five", the Twins would likely be a truly terrible team again. Sliding it to "fifth worst" only makes it marginally better.

 

I guess if you want to take "fifth worst" as "bottom five", it's a slightly different conversation but why stop at five? Why not seventh worst? Why not second worst? If fifth worst is the intention, then the poster should have said "fifth worst" or even "70 wins".

 

When I hear "bottom five", I hear "at best, a 70 win team but also equally as likely to be a 65 win team". And by that definition, a 66 win finish would be somewhat disastrous for this franchise, no?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Time will tell. As I've said in the past, I'll be disappointed if roster cuts don't come fast and furious as the season unfolds.*

 

*provided several players are terrible, which is almost a certainty in my eyes

This might be the biggest potential source of disappointment, to me.  I want to see sensible asset prioritization and management, almost regardless of our season-ending record.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

No offense intended but I don't really understand what you're arguing here.

Sorry, I hope my previous post cleared up the confusion.

 

I don't think a ~68 win season would necessarily be the worst thing in the world.  It may be, but it may not be.  There is enough of a young vs veteran mix on this roster that it's not clear which one would be most responsible, at this point.

 

Heck, I could see a potential scenario where most of the opening day youngsters perform fairly well, most poor performing veterans have short leashes, and the next wave of youngsters comes up (Gonsalves, Romero, Garver, Granite, Gordon?) and might scuffle in their debuts but still provide encouragement going forward.  Still may not escape ~68 win territory.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Sorry, I hope my previous post cleared up the confusion.

 

I don't think a ~68 win season would necessarily be the worst thing in the world.  It may be, but it may not be.  There is enough of a young vs veteran mix on this roster that it's not clear which one would be most responsible, at this point.

 

Heck, I could foresee most of the opening day youngsters performing fairly well, getting dragged down by some veterans, who are then replaced with further youngsters (Gonsalves, Romero, Garver, Granite, Gordon?) who might scuffle in 2017 but still provide encouragement going forward.

And that's fair. If you get into the 69-71 win territory, you have to look at who provided performance and when they did it (eg. a late-season rise of Romero gives a lot of hope going forward).

 

My problem is when the numbers dips below "bad" and into "terrible". And we probably agree on that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, if they are around 59-66 wins again, and in the running for the top overall pick, there's probably very little encouragement to be derived from the season, as we've witnessed before.

 

75+ wins, we're probably doing pretty well.

 

68-74 is kind of the grey area, for me.  I would need more details about how the record was achieved and how the season unfolded.

[beckmt]

 

I see your point but I look at the numbers very differently.

 

Berrios should get at least 25 starts if healthy. I don't think whether he's on the Opening Day roster is going to affect his playing time that much.

 

May was an oft-injured reliever last season. As a starter, that contribution needs to skyrocket or it's a problem going forward.

 

Gibson was epically terrible last season. While he's not as important as others, the Twins need a better performance from him this season.

 

Buxton and Sano don't need to contribute more, they need to contribute a lot more. Last season, they combined for just 3 fWAR. The Twins need that out of each of them this season.

 

Kepler and Rosario combined for just 2 fWAR last season. Again, that number needs to move toward 6 or we need to be really concerned about them as players.

 

Sure, we can expect some regression from Santana and Dozier but if the young kids don't make up for that regression and tack on several wins beyond that point, it's a problem for the franchise in future seasons. And Santana wasn't that valuable last season. He didn't hit 4 WAR in either Fangraphs or BB-Ref. If he regresses but stays on the field, it's unlikely he'll drop much.

 

On top of all those people mentioned, the Twins received negative WAR performances from a slew of pitchers last season. If that repeats, it's a big problem going forward. It means May, Gibson, and Berrios have likely failed and no young arms from the farm stepped forward in the bullpen.

 

The Twins need to take a step forward this season.

Agree the Twins need to take a step forward this year, this pitching staff frightens me.  Fly ball pitchers will be fine as Twins outfield (minus Grossman) should be able to be well above average.  However Gibson and other groundball pitchers could be a disaster unless you replace Polanco with a glove first SS.  Otherwise left side of infield could be a sieve with Gibson or other of his types on the mound.

[beckmt]

My problem is where are we going?  If you wait another year to jetison the veteran pitchers, by that time the core will be in place without knowing what pitchers can contribute and which will fail.  That is what I feel needs to be determined this year, so by the end of 2018 we will know how many or if we need to dip into that great FA pitching pool and fix what holes we have.  We will not be able to do this if we do not give the youngsters 2 years to sort themselves out.

I would not be opposed to a starting rotation of Santana, Berrios, May, Gonsalves and Romero.  At least in 2 years we will know where we stand.

[beckmt]

Problem is by 2019 you will be on the arbitration years of the Twins core.  If they feel they are playing on 75 win teams because the Twins score 800+ runs and give up 850+ runs, they will start to consider whether they want to be here after arbitration is over.  Worse case is Sano and Buxton tell the Twins they will leave when they reach FA.  That will almost force the Twins to trade them after year 4 or during year 5 and the team will have to enter another rebuilding phase.  I feel you have to cut to the chase and find out what pitchers you have in the upper levels of your system, before the core onfield players decide they probably are going to leave.  The other alternative if convincing Pohlad to spend a ton of money on pitching after 2018.  That argument is just as likely to get Falvey and Levine fired as it is to work. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Problem is by 2019 you will be on the arbitration years of the Twins core.  If they feel they are playing on 75 win teams because the Twins score 800+ runs and give up 850+ runs, they will start to consider whether they want to be here after arbitration is over.  Worse case is Sano and Buxton tell the Twins they will leave when they reach FA.  That will almost force the Twins to trade them after year 4 or during year 5 and the team will have to enter another rebuilding phase.  I feel you have to cut to the chase and find out what pitchers you have in the upper levels of your system, before the core onfield players decide they probably are going to leave.  The other alternative if convincing Pohlad to spend a ton of money on pitching after 2018.  That argument is just as likely to get Falvey and Levine fired as it is to work. 

 

Agreed. If you are those two, why sign here if there is NO evidence the Twins can develop pitching and be winners? And how is there any evidence with this staff?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would not be opposed to a starting rotation of Santana, Berrios, May, Gonsalves and Romero.

I'd love to see that rotation... In July.

 

Gonsalves and Romero are exciting but Gonsalves has 13 starts in Chattanooga while Romero has all of zero.

 

If Romero was the guy with experience at AA, maybe the front office toys with that idea but not the other way around. Gonsalves isn't the type of prospect you jump two levels after only getting his feet wet in the high minors.

[beckmt]

 

I'd love to see that rotation... In July.

 

Gonsalves and Romero are exciting but Gonsalves has 13 starts in Chattanooga while Romero has all of zero.

 

If Romero was the guy with experience at AA, maybe the front office toys with that idea but not the other way around. Gonsalves isn't the type of prospect you jump two levels after only getting his feet wet in the high minors.

Brock this will not happen in July, because you would be giving assets away or eating a fair amount of money.  Other organizations are able to do this, why not the Twins.   

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Brock this will not happen in July, because you would be giving assets away or eating a fair amount of money.  Other organizations are able to do this, why not the Twins.   

There are a few ways this could happen:

 

1. We have no idea how quickly Falvey will cut bait with or demote underperforming pitchers. He isn't Terry Ryan.

 

2. July is trade season. If Santiago is still around and resembles a competent pitcher while the Twins are 10+ games back, he'll be moved. Santana may be moved. Hughes is probably here until he retires or sorts himself out. It's even possible Gibson gets moved if the Twins are in a position to do it and the minors are producing starters.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There are a few ways this could happen:

 

1. We have no idea how quickly Falvey will cut bait with or demote underperforming pitchers. He isn't Terry Ryan.

 

2. July is trade season. If Santiago is still around and resembles a competent pitcher while the Twins are 10+ games back, he'll be moved. Santana may be moved. Hughes is probably here until he retires or sorts himself out. It's even possible Gibson gets moved if the Twins are in a position to do it and the minors are producing starters.

 

Based on all the trades they made so far? Based on what? We have literally no idea what these guys are going to do. Predicting that they'll move players seems like a bad idea given what little data we have.

[beckmt]

 

There are a few ways this could happen:

 

1. We have no idea how quickly Falvey will cut bait with or demote underperforming pitchers. He isn't Terry Ryan.

 

2. July is trade season. If Santiago is still around and resembles a competent pitcher while the Twins are 10+ games back, he'll be moved. Santana may be moved. Hughes is probably here until he retires or sorts himself out. It's even possible Gibson gets moved if the Twins are in a position to do it and the minors are producing starters.

More likely Hughes gets cut if he cannot bring his velocity up to make all his pitches work. If he cannot get there maybe he starts on the DL with arm weakness until he can ramp up and go out on rehab to see if he can get the velocity up.  If not you have to cut bait. 

There seem to be a fair number of arm injuries this spring.  If this keeps up Twins should be able to trade a couple of starters for value to make the spots open.  This could change if younger pitchers have bad springs and it is decided the veterans need to start here.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Based on all the trades they made so far? Based on what? We have literally no idea what these guys are going to do. Predicting that they'll move players seems like a bad idea given what little data we have.

The only person I predicted that would be moved is Santiago, who is a no-brainer trade in July if he's performing and the Twins are out of it. I said the other guys may be moved.

[beckmt]

Biggest issue here is giving Molitor a chance to succeed.  If you go into rebuild he has no chance to post a great record or even a good record.  That will probably get him dismissed at some time this year and then you have wasted the time to give players who will not be here in 2 years playing time.  Let's do this right.

Either give Molitor a 2 year extension or let him go and find a manager to work with the youngsters.  Not very many managers operate with the current year being the last year of their contract.