Here Is What War Projections Say About the Twins and White Sox

"They basically won 72 games last year (69 pythag) with career years from Anderson, Moncada, and Giolito that could all see some regression"

Well, the Twins had career years from Polanco, Kepler, Sano, Garver and although injury shortened, Buxton.  You don't think any on them regress?  I wouldn't be shocked to see Grandal  have a higher WAR than Garver this year...

"They basically won 72 games last year (69 pythag) with career years from Anderson, Moncada, and Giolito that could all see some regression"

 

Well, the Twins had career years from Polanco, Kepler, Sano, Garver and although injury shortened, Buxton.  You don't think any on them regress?  I wouldn't be shocked to see Grandal  have a higher WAR than Garver this year...

I expect them all to regress except Kep and Buxk. That could bring the Twins down to like 94 wins. Thats still really good. 

Sounds like the White Sox are on the verge of acquiring Yasiel Puig too

Twins fans may wish the White Sox had signed Manny Machado last year.  He hasn't lifted the Padres at all, and instead the Sox went shopping this year....and will be a better team for it.  

I tend to be patient and let the FO use all avenues to put together a club for the following season.

All that said, I'm concerned.  The are a position player (likely 3B) and a top starting pitcher short right now.  Bargain shopping isn't going to fill those spots.  Landing Donaldson would be huge.  Then only one trade (SP) is necessary to round things together.  

Last, to be fair, we don't have any knowledge of the lengths the FO went to try and get some of the FA that have signed.  Let's be realistic, these guys are "free" agents, free to choose where they want to play.

Definitely some room for regression in Moncada and Anderson as they BABIPed .406 and .399 respectively.

I've been nervous of this since '16 & '17 when they acquired Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Giolito, Lopez, Dunning, Jimenez, Rutherford, etc.  And that's just off the top of head.  They went out and completely flipped Eaton, Sale, Quintana, and Frazier for solid prospects.  These are just the highlights from those deals too.  On top of all of this, they're acquiring veterans...Plus Luis Robert.

I'm taking the ChiSox seriously.  It might not be this year, but it'll be soon.  Our window is not as large as we're all thinking.

Oh crap, you mean the Twins are going to have to play good baseball to win the division next year?

We can't just put on the jock and ride?

What are we going to do?

You know, it used to be, you wanted to be in the best division in baseball because that meant you had to be good to advance. That, when you get to the playoffs, you got some added confidence knowing that you won the best division in the game.

Not anymore. We want a free-ride into the playoffs and that qualifies us for unlimited complaining once the Yankees torch us.

Buck up Minnesota. Bring on the Whities. Then the Yanees. Then the Astros. Then the Dodgers.

Bring 'em all.

I definitely agree Tim Anderson, but Moncada is a slugger entering his prime, and a dip in that guy’s babip doesn’t necessarily mean he’s due for a down season.

Yeah, I agree that Anderson is much more likely to regress and I don’t really expect Moncada to have a “down year.” He hits the ball hard (unlike Anderson) but with a BABIP that high I do expect his numbers to come down a bit.

Hmmmm. This Tweet doesn't match your numbers. Also, until Zips is totally released, and we can look at Zips and Steamer, I need more data.

 

A week or two ago I posted and estimate of 87-92 wins so I obviously think this is spot on

Seriously though, our starting pitching was VERY healthy last year which is likely not repeatable.

I think ODO, Cruz, Pineda, and Garver with have some regression.Berrios, i think has peaked but will maintain for many years. 
 

Of course the White Sox are a threat.  They improved and we, at best, stayed pat!  What have the Twins done legitimately to improve....pull in Clippard?  Of course, as a fan, I want to believe that individual guys will get better, but we could be a better team overall and still win less games, just with the law of averages.  That’s what ZIPS and other look at - they don’t bring emotion or belief into it.  We’re fans....they can’t afford to be.

Personally, I think that this entire site should just take a break and just replay exciting plays from the ‘87 and ‘91 World Series until the Twins make another move.  Everyone is so annoyed with the Twins right now that most of the articles in the last week are just turning into arguments.

I recall the White Sox winning the off season very recently? A couple years ago? How did that work out for them? 

We entered the off-season anticipating the FO making moves to support a deep playoff run. Now we're supposed to be happy the Twins are still in contention for the division?

Congratulations. I believe you've just set a new land-speed record for goalposts. 

The White Sox have added a couple of bats and a #4 starter. They have burned a fair bit of payroll flexibility along the way. Furthermore, they're still heavily dependent on multiple prospects figuring it out at the same time.

 

All this to say, the White Sox are not remotely a threat to the Twins this year.

They burned payroll flexibility by signing two guys to contracts more than one year?
Please share the kool aid, I would love to have some, honestly I would love to have some.

What year specifically are you referring to?

2014/15 winter - 2015 season;
David Robertson 46M/4
Melky Cabrera 42M/3
Adam Laroche 25M/2
Zach Duke 15M/3
Grand Total in free agent money spent 138M in the '14/'15 off season. 

Seems unremarkable, in my opinion.

5 years from now this winter's signings may also look unremarkable. ChiSox were deemed to have won the 2014/15 off season. Doesn't mean anything was my point.

http://www.soxon35th.com/how-close-is-the-2020-american-league-central-race/