Where Will Jorge Polanco Be Traded?

It's the same old song.

The prevailing thought last winter on Max Kepler still applies this winter to both Max and Jorge Polanco. If a team has an interest and can offer a player in return that makes the Twins a better team in 2024, then the Twins can trade either or both Max and Jorge. Conversely, it makes zero sense to trade either or both for a return that does not help the team in 2024. Unless, the Twins are rebuilding ...... then it doesn't matter and a lower level prospect is a good idea.

We can read sixty plus comments that include various numerical justifications to trade Polanco (and Kepler) and the adjoining guess that age plus injuries have muted their skills. The reality will remain that these two are on short term team friendly deals, both players have questions, and neither will return a significant starting pitcher/player or prospect of note by themselves. 

If Miami wants to trade one of Max Meyer or Edward Cabrera for Jorge Polanco, I think the Twins take a chance. I'm just not seeing these type of deals being completed right now. The old worn saying, "a bird in hand", probably applies to the Twins and Polanco/Kepler. I believe the loss of either or both players will be a loss the Twins cannot handle next season, unless we are talking about a major deal that returns a player on the order of Pablo Lopez. So unless the big deal is out there, Polanco and Kepler stay.

I guess I should address the money saved from a potential trade since it seems to come up often. The Twins are not going to sign Snell or Montgomery even if all of JP, MK, Farmer, and Vazquez are traded. If the Twins cannot field a team at $120 million next season, there are perhaps some bigger issues, which I do not predict or expect. If either or both of Max and Jorge are dumped for salary relief, I predict the Twins do not win the AL Central. 

On to speculative trades .... many have been floated. Brewers? Burnes plus Quero for Polanco plus Ryan and Raya. Miami? Alcantara plus Cabrera for Polanco plus Jeffers. Seattle? Polanco plus Lee and Raya for Gilbert. I don't believe any of those will work, nor suggest they should. Just throwing Polanco in a few trades. Polanco is not a player to trade if the Twins are looking for a starting pitcher or hoping to win the AL Central in 2024. He has more value for the Twins than for another team to give up a stud pitcher. Catch-22.

The way guys talk about polo, one would think he is barely worth a bag of baseballs.  I hope he doesn’t get traded and I am a huge fan of Julien and Lee getting every day time in the bigs. We still need depth.

I think the best bet fir the twins is to trade Kepler and Polanco together in a trade with perhaps a prospect or 2 to aquire Logan gilbert from the Mariners, they have a need for both infield and outfield help and moving gilbert makes room for them sign Seattle native blake snell who wants to play there

If trading Polo, of course along with others, can help get us some quality starting pitching, sign me up. I love Polo, the guy has a great bat when healthy and I think this off-season he is healthy. The contract with the team option has good value. Just get a good starter so Louie can champ at the bit in St Paul awaiting his chance and honing his pitches. 

2 hours ago, Fatbat said:

The way guys talk about polo, one would think he is barely worth a bag of baseballs.  I hope he doesn’t get traded and I am a huge fan of Julien and Lee getting every day time in the bigs.

I understand if someone thinks he would be great, won't get injured again and shouldn't be traded. I also understand if someone thinks there are way too many miles on his legs, will continue to get injured and his defense has gotten bad (can't play 3B or SS at all now) and we should trade him. What I don't understand are the people who say he's great for the Twins but that we won't get anything for him in a trade.

25 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

I understand if someone thinks he would be great, won't get injured again and shouldn't be traded. I also understand if someone thinks there are way too many miles on his legs, will continue to get injured and his defense has gotten bad (can't play 3B or SS at all now) and we should trade him. What I don't understand are the people who say he's great for the Twins but that we won't get anything for him in a trade.

Being great for one team , often, does not carry over to the next.

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

What I don't understand are the people who say he's great for the Twins but that we won't get anything for him in a trade.

RpR gives a good response. I used Catch-22 in much the same manner. Perhaps that needs some further explanation.

Polo nor any other Twin  has the ability on their own to return a Logan Gilbert or George Kirby. Teams that are trading for Jorge want to win and are not giving up their best pitchers. Polanco also does not have the future value to return a top young prospect. Trading him for a player that does not improve the team for the coming year weakens the team because the Twins can certainly use the depth, experience, and level of professionalism that Polanco brings to the field. I hope that makes sense or helps somewhat. 

The unknown is whether the Twins would put together an aggressive deal that includes several players to potentially lure a GM into trading a #2 type starting pitcher. Polanco, really anyone could be in such a transaction.

This assumes we are talking about just this coming season and not trying to engineer some mini rebuild for 2-3 years from now.

He will not be flipped for Burns.  If the Brewers trade him they will be saying we need a rebuild, of some kind, and they are not pushing to win this year, unless they also get MLB ready pitching to replace him with as part of a trade.  So unless we include someone like Ober a trade surrounding Burns will not have Polanco as the only MLB ready piece to return.  

I could see Blue Jays or Seattle as good fits to match with.  Both have pitching depth to deal from, and both have a need for an infielder.  Miami could as well, but it will be more than Polanco for a pitcher most likely. 

15 hours ago, Jim wyllie said:

I think the best bet fir the twins is to trade Kepler and Polanco together in a trade with perhaps a prospect or 2 to aquire Logan gilbert from the Mariners, they have a need for both infield and outfield help and moving gilbert makes room for them sign Seattle native blake snell who wants to play there

Seattle has its own financial constraints and is unlikely to take on the combined $21 million owed Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler this year, much less the annual $25 million-plus needed to land Blake Snell.

The Mariners may well have interest in Kepler but have little need for Polanco.

Last season Seattle received 1.2 fWAR in 46 games from Josh Rojas and 2.2 fWAR in 104 games from rookie Jose Caballero. That’s a combined 3.4 fWAR in 150 games from the potential 2024 second-base platoon of the lefthand-hitting Rojas and righthand-hitting Caballero.

As a point of reference, last season 30-year-old Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games. For Seattle, the 29-year-old Rojas and 27-year-old Caballero each accrued 2023 WAR at a per-game rate that matched or exceeded that of Polanco. A platoon might not be necessary.

The Mariners await the projected 2024 debut of intriguing prospect Ryan Bliss, a starting second baseman in the 2023 Futures Game and Defensive Player of the Year in the Arizona Fall League. Last year across Double A and Triple A, the now 24-year-old Bliss posted a .304/.378/.524/.902 line with 23 home runs and 55 stolen bases.

Seattle has offseason needs but Polanco would add little to the roster.

16 hours ago, Fatbat said:

The way guys talk about polo, one would think he is barely worth a bag of baseballs.  I hope he doesn’t get traded and I am a huge fan of Julien and Lee getting every day time in the bigs. We still need depth.

I think he's a great player, and would prefer that he stay with the Twins, playing multiple positions and DHing this season. He makes the lineup stronger and I love his switch-hitting. The only way he should be moved is if we get real value for him, the kind of value for a player that would have been the #1 2B option if he were a free agent and would have gotten a multi-year deal we a substantial raise over his current deal.

He's no bag of balls, he's the Twins best trade asset because we have depth at his best positions, he has a good contract, and he's a proven veteran. His only real deficit is health, but he finished the season healthy and played well (and was healthy) the last 2 months of the season, so it shouldn't be the biggest issue.

I'd rather keep him, he's still one of the Twins better players and a consistent producer. By all accounts he's a good dude and great teammate. But because of our self-imposed payroll reduction, he makes sense to be a trade option. If he's given away in a salary dump, I'm going to be furious. As part of a package that lands us the starter we need, I can live with dealing Polanco, but I'll be bummed to see him go. 

If the Twins had Meyer (24+) controlled until 2030 (I think), Cabrera (25+) until 2029, or Luzardo(26) until 2027, would you trade any of them for two years of Polanco and a 23+ old Festa?

I wouldn't, maybe after Polanco proved he was healthy and productive.

14 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If the Twins had Meyer (24+) controlled until 2030 (I think), Cabrera (25+) until 2029, or Luzardo(26) until 2027, would you trade any of them for two years of Polanco and a 23+ old Festa?

I wouldn't, maybe after Polanco proved he was healthy and productive.

I would not trade Festa for Meyer and would hesitate to trade him for Cabrera. Then again, admittedly, I see much higher potential from David Festa than most and time will tell on that guess.

Cabrera is out of options, has great stuff, but struggles to throw strikes. His issues are seemingly growing, not receding. We do not know where Falvey or the Marlins sit on Cabrera. I still would like to see the Twins acquire Cabrera but don't have a feel for what Miami wants in return. Certainly, Polanco, SWR, and maybe a rookie league guy, at least. I don't believe they will entertain offers for Meyer though.

Money and years of control is a real thing for teams like Miami, Milwaukee, Seattle, and Minnesota among others. Large market teams would place greater value on Polanco and not be interested in moving him. Jorge looked pretty healthy in October. I don't think other teams or the Twins feel Polanco has to prove himself. He is an established MLB ballplayer who is highly respected around baseball even if some Twins fans are now giving him the Mauer treatment.

Luzardo is on another level of projected value, similar to Royce Lewis. What intrigues me is whether Miami has financial concerns which would facilitate a move of the injured Alcantara to save money which would reduce the cost of a Cabrera. However, perhaps the Twins have more serious money troubles. It is a difficult offseason to read.

18 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I would not trade Festa for Meyer and would hesitate to trade him for Cabrera. Then again, admittedly, I see much higher potential from David Festa than most and time will tell on that guess.

Cabrera is out of options, has great stuff, but struggles to throw strikes. His issues are seemingly growing, not receding. We do not know where Falvey or the Marlins sit on Cabrera. I still would like to see the Twins acquire Cabrera but don't have a feel for what Miami wants in return. Certainly, Polanco, SWR, and maybe a rookie league guy, at least. I don't believe they will entertain offers for Meyer though.

Money and years of control is a real thing for teams like Miami, Milwaukee, Seattle, and Minnesota among others. Large market teams would place greater value on Polanco and not be interested in moving him. Jorge looked pretty healthy in October. I don't think other teams or the Twins feel Polanco has to prove himself. He is an established MLB ballplayer who is highly respected around baseball even if some Twins fans are now giving him the Mauer treatment.

Luzardo is on another level of projected value, similar to Royce Lewis. What intrigues me is whether Miami has financial concerns which would facilitate a move of the injured Alcantara to save money which would reduce the cost of a Cabrera. However, perhaps the Twins have more serious money troubles. It is a difficult offseason to read.

The question was if you were Miami would any of those 3 pitchers for trade Polanco and Festa? I am guessing you are saying you would for Meyer, maybe on Cabrera and no on Luzardo.

as for the rest that is why I put their age and controllable years.

Unfortunately, the younger guys (Julien, Lewis, Lee, Wallner and to a lesser extent Kirilloff, Larnach and maybe Miranda) will get a better return.

Also, unfortunately, Buxton's health will play into how many PA's some of those guys get - if he's healthy and plays mostly CF, the others can get PA's at DH, if he is the everyday DH, they don't.

Maybe Polanco can copy Carew and move from 2B to 1B and can stay healthy and productive. Might be worth a shot.

I say they trade him to Toronto for Alek Manoah straight up.

He will not be traded.

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

The question was if you were Miami would any of those 3 pitchers for trade Polanco and Festa? I am guessing you are saying you would for Meyer, maybe on Cabrera and no on Luzardo.

as for the rest that is why I put their age and controllable years.

Correct. I do realize that few hold Festa in as high of a position as I do. I would agree to trade Polanco, Festa, and another for any of Kirby, Gilbert, or Luzardo. If I am looking from Miami's or Seattle's view, I do not trade those pitchers. 

FWIW, I do believe that both the Marlins and Mariners are in a bit of a bind because they should keep their pitchers but their bats are not going to cut it. I get the move by Seattle to cut strikeouts. Apparently salary was also a key factor in their trades. Losing Gonzales, White, Suarez, Hernandez, and Murphy plus the end of other lost money to players no longer around from 2023 has saved the Mariners a pile of dough. I'm not privy to their financial stability, but it seems like they will mostly sit out the larger free agent market. Mitch Garver could be ok for them. If I am a Mariner's fan, I'm nervous about 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, and RF. Some people like the guys they hold in those positions now, but Sometimes it is as easy as pretending to pick teams and then the Mariners look weak. Thing is they play the games and it all tells us the story at the end of each season. Long way of saying that SEA & MIA will probably be calling Falvey from time to time.

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Correct. I do realize that few hold Festa in as high of a position as I do. I would agree to trade Polanco, Festa, and another for any of Kirby, Gilbert, or Luzardo. If I am looking from Miami's or Seattle's view, I do not trade those pitchers. 

FWIW, I do believe that both the Marlins and Mariners are in a bit of a bind because they should keep their pitchers but their bats are not going to cut it. I get the move by Seattle to cut strikeouts. Apparently salary was also a key factor in their trades. Losing Gonzales, White, Suarez, Hernandez, and Murphy plus the end of other lost money to players no longer around from 2023 has saved the Mariners a pile of dough. I'm not privy to their financial stability, but it seems like they will mostly sit out the larger free agent market. Mitch Garver could be ok for them. If I am a Mariner's fan, I'm nervous about 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, and RF. Some people like the guys they hold in those positions now, but Sometimes it is as easy as pretending to pick teams and then the Mariners look weak. Thing is they play the games and it all tells us the story at the end of each season. Long way of saying that SEA & MIA will probably be calling Falvey from time to time.

In his ZiPS writeup on December 13, FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski projected 85-90 wins for the 2024 Seattle Mariners before the signing of Mitch Garver but after Jarred Kelenic, Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez were jettisoned:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-seattle-mariners/

Seattle's starting rotation and bullpen are highly touted but the Mariners also return three position players who last year combined for 15.5 fWAR (in their age 22, 26 and 28 seasons). Early last month Seattle PBO Jerry Dipoto said the Mariners were pursuing a designated hitter and "1-1/2 corner outfielders." The M's have since signed Garver to DH.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/jerry-dipoto-discusses-mariners-offseason-plans-2.html

After clearing payroll, the Mariners remain in the market to complement their strong core of position players.

The Twins FO MO is to trade for pitchers with multiple years of control, usually on an affordable contract, that don’t have astronomical trade values (ie wont cost a top prospect to get).

Corbin Burnes (1 year) and Luis Castillo (owed $80mm) Jesus Luzardo and Logan Gilbert (both cost too much) do not fit their MO in my view.

Alek Manoah and Edward Cabrera do.

22 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If the Twins had Meyer (24+) controlled until 2030 (I think), Cabrera (25+) until 2029, or Luzardo(26) until 2027, would you trade any of them for two years of Polanco and a 23+ old Festa?

I wouldn't, maybe after Polanco proved he was healthy and productive.

Exactly!  This discussion is so farfetched it's laughable.  Miami IS NOT going to trade for an older player like Polanco in exchange for one of its prized starters.  It's just foolish to think otherwise.  The only way that happens is if the Twins throw in Brooks Lee or Walter Jenkins, (possibly both) to get Luzardo or Cabrera, which there's no way in Hades the Twins do that, but that's what it would take.

What the Twins COULD do is work out a deal for Sandy Alcantara who just underwent UCL TJ and will miss all of 2024.  You might be able to swing something with Miami that's not as painful and get him without emptying the farm knowing that he's a free agent in 2028.  Of course that does nothing to help the Twins this season in the starting pitching department.