Athletics 2, Twins 0: Twins Offense Can't Connect in Ugly Loss

[chinmusic]

2 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

5 games of homestead against very bad teams to stay pretenders. 

4 of 5 would put them at .500 again before facing the Mariners.

Whatever; it's a moot point. Pretenders indeed.

[Nshore]

6 hours ago, Permanent Twins Fan said:

He would definitely be okay there, but the Twins have so many outfield prospects coming up in AAA. Jenkins and Rodriguez are legit outfielders if they are ever healthy, but both Gonzalez and Mendez are not great defensively, so they would see games at DH. The logjam at outfield makes Larnach an almost must-trade.

I know this is a minority viewpoint, but I wouldn't be so eager to dump Larnach.  Some of those guys in the minors haven't even proven they can stay on a baseball field for a full season, let alone hold up under the grind of a Major League schedule.  The "logjam" is an illusion.  Make them earn it rather than hand it to them.

[MMMordabito]

Typical let down game after a tough win. 

[MMMordabito]

13 minutes ago, Nshore said:

I know this is a minority viewpoint, but I wouldn't be so eager to dump Larnach.  Some of those guys in the minors haven't even proven they can stay on a baseball field for a full season, let alone hold up under the grind of a Major League schedule.  The "logjam" is an illusion.  Make them earn it rather than hand it to them.

C'mon, man, assuming ceilings will materialize in droves is all we got. Don't worry though, a quick 0-16 and you'll start hearing how the "experiment" needs to end and onto the next prospect solution. 

[DJL44]

Ryan Kreidler 1 for 22 with 0BB and 7K in his last 7 games.

[Linus]

The best thing that happened was that Buck didn’t get his knees destroyed making that catch as Martin almost submarined him. Keaschall and Lewis seem to be frequently off balance at the plate. About half the time when they swing they end up falling over the plate almost to the left hand batters box. That much movement perpendicular to the ball can’t be good. 

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

So Zebby isn't a bad rotation piece? Once again, he threw a great game. The offense let him down. But his 6 IP was very good. This loss was on the offense. 

I still think Matthews has another level to be reached with some changes to his repertoire. He still has a problem getting outs with good counts. They need to help him develop a splitter, and maybe a sweeper to offset a FB that is too straight. 

But damn if he didn't go out and pitch 6 innings of really good ball tonight and give the team a chance to win. And he helped save the BP as well.

The offense lost the game tonight, not Matthews. But again, why are we discussing what Matthews hasn't done yet vs what he HAS done, and might yet do?

I try to stay upbeat as well!

Zebby currently throws, sinker-slider-4seam-cutter-curve-changeup…….. I would argue he needs to lose 2 pitches and get better with the other 4 ……. doesn’t need to be adding two more.

Zebby is OK. His command in the zone is not great, particularly with hanging sliders & 4-seam close to middle-middle, routinely.

He’ll get better. Personally, I think he’d be more effective with stuff and with his mental approach (more focus) as a reliever (in future). His velocity would pop to 97+ and he could trim to 4 pitches which is plenty when facing 3-5 guys per game. He’s a multi-pitch Louie.

[HarmonK03]

28 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Ryan Kreidler 1 for 22 with 0BB and 7K in his last 7 games.

He might not be a regular in the major leagues.

[JD-TWINS]

TEAM needs to score runs, as many here have pointed out. Leading the League in runs sounds great but over the last 7 days the Run totals have been …… 2-1-4-2 - 10 - 3-0 …….no chance to win 4 of last seven solely due to lack of run support! Remember, the game they scored 3 runs in, they had 1 run through 11 innings.

12 runs over 6 games…… and a ten spot…… roll the 10 runs into the total and they averaged 3.14 runs/game ……. still UGLY!

Trade Bell for whatever ……. trade Wallner & Roden & AA arm somewhere for an effective relever…….trade Caratini (with another piece) for relief depth & offer Jeffers QO for next year when time comes………put together an attractive package to Giants for Arraez (consistency) to hit in 3 or 5 hole, protecting somebody and getting hits w/guys on base.

 Lewis at 1B every day with Arraez at 2B every day. Clemens to corner OF. Larnach to DH (75%).

Arraez is less money than Bell & Caratini combined, for balance of the year……improves defense and offensive consistency!

W/Roden & Caratini gone, I jump on the Jenkins & Culpepper bandwagon to fill out 26-man.

[HarmonK03]

24 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I try to stay upbeat as well!

Zebby currently throws, sinker-slider-4seam-cutter-curve-changeup…….. I would argue he needs to lose 2 pitches and get better with the other 4 ……. doesn’t need to be adding two more.

Zebby is OK. His command in the zone is not great, particularly with hanging sliders & 4-seam close to middle-middle, routinely.

He’ll get better. Personally, I think he’d be more effective with stuff and with his mental approach (more focus) as a reliever (in future). His velocity would pop to 97+ and he could trim to 4 pitches which is plenty when facing 3-5 guys per game. He’s a multi-pitch Louie.

Who else do we have as a starter, Mick Abel and that's about it. Abel has had two good outings.  Festa with his injury who knows if he will come back.  Matthews consistently gives you 6 innings and keeps the team in the game most outings.  Why the rush to move him to the bullpen.  Do you want more guys like Sim who can't get thru 5 innings and gives up 4 runs or more every outing. 

At some point results have to matter.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

Culpepper and Jenkins need to be up here by Tuesday.  They need the spark and Kreidler's bat has completely disappeared.  His defense does not overcome that.

Culpepper played his first game in a month last night. Having him debut almost immediately after coming off the IL feels like putting him in a really bad spot. Established MLB players get longer rehab stints than you're proposing. Let Kaelen get settled for a couple weeks and show that he's doing what he was before the injury.

[HarmonK03]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Culpepper played his first game in a month last night. Having him debut almost immediately after coming off the IL feels like putting him in a really bad spot. Established MLB players get longer rehab stints than you're proposing. Let Kaelen get settled for a couple weeks and show that he's doing what he was before the injury.

That's fair, it's just unfortunate that Kreidler has regressed  back to his career norms.  Was hoping he may have found something a little more than that.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

That's fair, it's just unfortunate that Kreidler has regressed  back to his career norms.  Was hoping he may have found something a little more than that.

Yeah, I think the break came at a terrible time for the Twins. They were outperforming their numbers by a pretty significant margin, and the break gave them time off to lose their rhythm, and many of these players aren't good enough to find it and play above their heads again. Kreidler being a prime example.

As to your comment about getting Jenkins and Culpepper up, I'd like to see them up mid- to late-August. I don't think a few more weeks in AAA hurts them at all and I'd like to keep their rookie eligibility in place for 2027 and give us 2 shots at a RoY award extra draft pick compensation.

[DJL44]

21 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

That's fair, it's just unfortunate that Kreidler has regressed  back to his career norms.  Was hoping he may have found something a little more than that.

I wish he was hitting as well as his career numbers. He has been useless.

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

As to your comment about getting Jenkins and Culpepper up, I'd like to see them up mid- to late-August. I don't think a few more weeks in AAA hurts them at all and I'd like to keep their rookie eligibility in place for 2027 and give us 2 shots at a RoY award extra draft pick compensation.

Definitely after the deadline. Who knows what the 40 man roster will look like on August 5.

[DJL44]

33 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

……. trade Wallner

Wallner might have as much trade value as James Outman did last season.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Definitely after the deadline. Who knows what the 40 man roster will look like on August 5.

If they sell numerous pieces at the deadline, I'd be even more inclined to keep them down. If Larnach is gone, put Roden in RF (move Keaschall to left where he belongs) every day for 3 weeks and see what he can do. If Bell is gone, move Larnach to DH, Keaschall to left and put Roden in RF every day for 3 weeks. If they're both gone, put Keaschall in left and Roden in right for 3 weeks and rotate DH. I don't want to waste the rookie eligibility of those guys for an extra 2 weeks of time in the bigs.

The cutoff for days for rookie eligibility is in the middle of August. Maybe neither wins RoY, but I'd give myself multiple chances at the extra pick over an extra 2 weeks in the bigs for them.

Bring Fedko back up and give him those 2 weeks of ABs and see if he's even worth tendering this offseason as a possible 4th OFer or if he's simply not a major leaguer. Bring Wallner back to DH. Plenty of other guys they can gather data on for offseason decisions for 2 or 3 weeks while you save your multiple chances at an extra draft pick.

[HarmonK03]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I wish he was hitting as well as his career numbers. He has been useless.

He was .133 for his career coming into the season and .120 for the month of July. So yes he does have a little work to do to get back to his career average.

[HarmonK03]

8 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Wallner might have as much trade value as James Outman did last season.

Maybe we could get Dyson for Wallner.

[DJL44]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If they sell numerous pieces at the deadline, I'd be even more inclined to keep them down. If Larnach is gone, put Roden in RF (move Keaschall to left where he belongs) every day for 3 weeks and see what he can do. If Bell is gone, move Larnach to DH, Keaschall to left and put Roden in RF every day for 3 weeks. If they're both gone, put Keaschall in left and Roden in right for 3 weeks and rotate DH. I don't want to waste the rookie eligibility of those guys for an extra 2 weeks of time in the bigs.

The cutoff for days for rookie eligibility is in the middle of August. Maybe neither wins RoY, but I'd give myself multiple chances at the extra pick over an extra 2 weeks in the bigs for them.

Bring Fedko back up and give him those 2 weeks of ABs and see if he's even worth tendering this offseason as a possible 4th OFer or if he's simply not a major leaguer. Bring Wallner back to DH. Plenty of other guys they can gather data on for offseason decisions for 2 or 3 weeks while you save your multiple chances at an extra draft pick.

Agree with this, plus there are likely new additions who need auditions. No need to add players to the roster at the moment. 

[mikelink45]

A few notes - I am a big Matthews fan and really hope for success, but against a team like the A's I do not call that a really good game - he managed the game and gets a lot of credit for it, but after the last three games where he gave up 10, 4, 4 runs in 13 innings, he needed a solid performance.  I want him in the rotation all the way but still he has a 5.21 era, 1.316 Whip, and 796 OPS against he has a lot of work to do.

Second observation - ground balls are still a real weapon for the defense and pitcher.  The emphasis on Ks misses the fact that many pitchers made a career out of DP and ground outs.  Look at how we were shut down by the ground out.  Ask Wilson the A's SS - one inning he was the entire defense.  We hit into 3DPs.

[HarmonK03]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Agree with this, plus there are likely new additions who need auditions. No need to add players to the roster at the moment. 

Hopefully they don't bring back any more outfielders unless they trade 4 or 5 or a clear upgrade over Jenkins.

[DJL44]

I enjoyed seeing Buxton play the carom off the RF overhang perfectly while Keaschall jumped for a ball that wasn’t there. A lesson on the value of experience.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, HarmonK03 said:

That's fair, it's just unfortunate that Kreidler has regressed  back to his career norms.  Was hoping he may have found something a little more than that.

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, I think the break came at a terrible time for the Twins. They were outperforming their numbers by a pretty significant margin, and the break gave them time off to lose their rhythm, and many of these players aren't good enough to find it and play above their heads again. Kreidler being a prime example.

The BABIP gods giveth, the BABIP gods taketh away.

Kreidler was an intriguing gamble in the off-season.  In 211 plate appearances prior to joining the Twins, his cumulative OPS was a mere .383.  But his career BABIP was .198.  It's really unusual for a competent minor league hitter to come up and have batted balls find gloves that readily, over and over.  I don't call BABIP luck, because some players have a lower baseline BABIP than others (Kepler and Mauer being a couple of notable examples at either end).  But .198 looks kind of historic.

Lo and behold, after a slow start (which a couple of homers disguised), Kreidler's BABIP approximated league norms - .290 when I looked one time.  And his OPS was acceptably in the .700s, just fine for a backup infielder or spot starter, especially since his glove at an important position was good.  For a while he had an OPS in the .800s and we thought we really had something.

Kreidler had also cut his strikeout rate from the 30% range to the low 20s.  Given reasonable BABIP, low strikeouts are going to help the OPS.

And now, look at July.  His strikeouts are back up around 30%, and his BABIP for the month has been an amazingly low .167 (even worse than when he was a Tiger).  With no homers, his OPS for July is .283.

Which is the real Ryan Kreidler?  Is July just another small sample?   I still don't claim to know.  He's probably better than we're seeing right now.  But maybe May and June were his "career year" and he's one of those low-BABIP guys who put the ball in play in ways that don't make the defense work hard.

[HarmonK03]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The BABIP gods giveth, the BABIP gods taketh away.

Kreidler was an intriguing gamble in the off-season.  In 211 plate appearances prior to joining the Twins, his cumulative OPS was a mere .383.  But his career BABIP was .198.  It's really unusual for a competent minor league hitter to come up and have batted balls find gloves that readily, over and over.  I don't call BABIP luck, because some players have a lower baseline BABIP than others (Kepler and Mauer being a couple of notable examples at either end).

Lo and behold, after a slow start, Kreidler's BABIP approximated league norms - .290 when I looked one time.  And his OPS was acceptably in the .700s, just fine for a backup infielder or spot starter, especially since his glove at an important position was good.

Kreidler had also cut his strikeout rate from the 30% range to the low 20s.

And now, look at July.  His strikeouts are back up around 30%, and his BABIP for the month has been an amazingly low .167 (even worse than when he was a Tiger).  With no homers, his OPS for July is .283.

Which is the real Ryan Kreidler?  I still don't claim to know.  It's probably better than this right now.  But maybe May and June were his "career year" and he's one of those low-BABIP guys who put the ball in play in ways that don't make the defense work hard.

Based on history, I think we are seeing the real Kreidler.  

[TheLeviathan]

Some of us were warning you folks that the offensive output was unlikely to be maintainable......

That happens in baseball.  Sometimes you are on the right side of a sample where you outperform expectations and sequence well.....you can't bank on it though.

The Twins were scoring well above other teams with roughly comparable offensive metrics.  The writing was on the wall.

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, Nshore said:

I know this is a minority viewpoint, but I wouldn't be so eager to dump Larnach.  Some of those guys in the minors haven't even proven they can stay on a baseball field for a full season, let alone hold up under the grind of a Major League schedule.  The "logjam" is an illusion.  Make them earn it rather than hand it to them.

How do they earn it, if Larnach is here? What would you need to see in the minors?

[David Maro]

Even a Little League team score a couple of runs when they have 7 walks. This one falls on Shelton,should have PH numerous times and didn't. Caratini looked like he had zero interest in being in the box after fouling the ball off his knee. Bell and Lee were flat out terrible hitting into inning ending DP's. Just maybe Clemens,Larnach or Roden could have sparked a comeback.

This hurts because both the White Sox and Cleveland lost and the Tigers won and only a half game back.

[ashbury]

40 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Some of us were warning you folks that the offensive output was unlikely to be maintainable......

That happens in baseball.  Sometimes you are on the right side of a sample where you outperform expectations and sequence well.....you can't bank on it though.

The Twins were scoring well above other teams with roughly comparable offensive metrics.  The writing was on the wall.

Major-league-leading BABIP in RISP situations is a lot of fun until the magic pixie dust wears off.

[Sjoski]

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I don’t understand the perspective that the Twins are entitled to winning these games. 

Thank you for a strong dose of common sense for once. People want to "buy" to prop up a lost cause,  rather than "sell" to build for a legitimate team in 27 or 28?