Would the Twins Be Better Off Trading Royce Lewis?

[South Dakota Tom]

I think his best value to us is in the future; if he turns into a masher at 1B, great.  If he remains as a cost-controlled 1B, 3B in a pinch, platoon whatever, that is still something.  Right now, he's not good (see Trevor Larnach last year and the howls to give him away; see, also, Matt Wallner this year and same howls).  A change of scenery might do him some good, but what does it do for us?

There are 3 types of players you look to trade; 1) those on expiring contracts who won't sign with us again; 2) players who are blocking the future (i.e., positions of strength); 3) players who will bring back a haul and fill in gaps that are more valuable than the existing player.

Royce is none of those things.  We are not going to be blown away by any offers for him and shouldn't give him up just for a middling RP.  Our infield isn't that deep right now.

 

[tony&rodney]

Couple of points that could be clarified.

Jax and Bradley were both seen as strong arms who had hit their own personal ruts in the road. Bradley was a AAA pitcher for the Rays when he was acquired by the Twins. That trade was generally well-received by both teams and can be put down as a successful change of scenery transaction. Those types of moves are good for everyone.

Matt Wallner was a pitcher, outfielder, and DH before he became a professional. Because of the strong arm he was shifted to right field. He has earned his reputation as the worst outfielder in baseball. It is an exercise in futility to suggest he hasn't worked hard, needs more of this or that, or otherwise to improve in the field. He has done his best but talent has limits; Wallner cannot field. Those who suggest first base miss the fact that a baseball moves very quickly when hit by major league batters. Wallner needs two seconds before he moves. How does that work at first base? That thought should be retired once and for all and the actual baseball professionals discounted that idea long ago after brief practices/looks. I would be shocked if Wallner appears in the outfield again for the Twins. It could happen but I would be floored. I do think if certain moves are made that we could see Wallner as a DH. The best bet is that Matt Wallner is wearing another uniform for a different organization within the next 10 days.

Royce Lewis is still having a bit of a struggle playing baseball in the major leagues. He may be a strong change of scenery type guy, which I believe is a difficult call. If there is a team willing to offer a decent player for Lewis, the Twins do it. Perhaps Lewis is added to another guy or two in a wider trade. There is nothing wrong with watching a person who has a tough go of finding success in their job go to a different employer and emerging with a positive career. I don't see why someone wants to lay blame on why Royce has had problems. He got beat out for the shortstop job back in high school (Chase Strumpf) and has faced numerous challenges along the way as a pro. Injuries sapped some of his mobility. Lewis is still working hard. Baseball is a very difficult sport and Royce is doing his best to contribute to the Twins club. If Royce Lewis remains a Twins I hope he becomes very successful. 

[weitz41]

Why? It's not like we have someone knocking on the door to play 1b. he's got what? 1 1/2 months playing that spot. Way way too early to judge if that is the right spot for him. Most teams are looking for RH bats with power. AH, a recent post has us looking at RH OF's. On top of that his trade value is down and we'd then need more RH bats and 1B if they did trade him. Hold...better days are coming for Royce and the Twins for that matter.

[Linus]

Royce is in the weird spot once promising players sometimes fall to. His current value is low enough that the chance he figure it out is more valuable than the marginal player we would receive in trade. I would hang on to him and hope. If the Twins have a chance to add a real masher for first base in the off- season you could send him to St Paul. 

[Greglw3]

4 hours ago, NYCTK said:

I really sucks that Falvey and Zoll took all those plate appearances for him and turned him into a sub 700 OPS guy. If only Royce Lewis had some culpability in the situation. 

He's a poor man's Ryan McMahon with a similar bat and significantly worse defense. And Ryan McMahon, on a pretty fair, short and manageable contract (2yrs/32), was traded for basically nothing just last trade deadline. Why are you under the impression that Royce would be worth more than nothing if he were still at 3B or SS? 

 

Definitely never as bad as move as trading Rod Carew for nothing of lasting value or trading Johann Santana for virtually nothing or literally getting nothing for a clearly talented slugger who only slumped to 20 HR because of a knee issue. Carew was the dumbest, then Ortiz, then Santana. Would Lewis ever be in that conversation? Who knows? For sure never with the Carew giveaway. Doubtful with the Ortiz giveaway. Maybe with the Santana disaster.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

SS not hitting is different than 1B not hitting, but maybe you disagree.

He’s not a SS.  The point is moot. 

[LyleCole]

1 hour ago, HarmonK03 said:

We have 12 outfielders between St. Paul and Minneapolis, some need to go.  I like Wallner but at this point and at his age I think his best shot is with another organization.  Either give him away or release him at the end of the year.

And this is a costless and riskless way of trying to maximize the value of one of those 12.   If it doesn't work, nothing has changed.  Just release him.   If it works, I think you could do a minor league trade with another team getting back one of their guys who hasn't quite worked out.  Trades like this happen all the time.   

[nicksaviking]

Maybe if he's just one component of a surprisingly big deal for a long term controllable player. But definitely not just to move him. Not now anyway. Only bad teams sell their players at their absolute nadir. Why trade him for a player of no consequence now instead of waiting to see if his value rebounds?

Even if it doesn't, the odds that whomever he brings back in return is any good are just as low or lower. Unless they're willing to call up Gabriel Gonzalez to play 1B, I don't see the rush.

[HarmonK03]

34 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

And this is a costless and riskless way of trying to maximize the value of one of those 12.   If it doesn't work, nothing has changed.  Just release him.   If it works, I think you could do a minor league trade with another team getting back one of their guys who hasn't quite worked out.  Trades like this happen all the time.   

The Twins know what they have in Wallner and so does the rest of the league.  A month or two up here I don't think will change that.  And the Twins had the chance to bring him back up and chose not to do that.  I personally like him but I think he needs a change of scenery to see if he can get back on track.  There are others at this point that will need AB's more than Wallner.

[GNess]

 

A question arises - deal lewis or Larnach? Here is one way to look at this:

Lewis' production at the plate has really diminished for whatever reason(s). He likely has very limited asset value in terms of a trade at deadline.

Larnach is looking like he may have ascended to a higher level in terms of production at the plate so he may have decent trade value at the deadline. (Likely above that of Lewis.)

The trend lines would suggest that Larnach would likely have greater production value for the remainder of this season and next season. The Twins would be surrendering that value in trading Larnach if whatever minor leaguers coming up to replace him don't produce near his level. The immediate value of player(s) in a theoretical Larnach trade is likely to be limited, but they may offer some future value.

A Lewis trade offers less risk of losing the immediate value at the plate given his now two + season slump and injury issues. The present version of Lewis seems easier to replace. Neither of these players offers much defensively. If Lewis could net even a limited return the Twins probably should do that instead of dealing a player like Larnach.

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

Royce is in the weird spot once promising players sometimes fall to. His current value is low enough that the chance he figure it out is more valuable than the marginal player we would receive in trade. I would hang on to him and hope. If the Twins have a chance to add a real masher for first base in the off- season you could send him to St Paul. 

If you're hanging onto him then he's staying on the active roster right? What is he figuring out in AAA, and if the Twins are planning to replace him at 1B, what's the point of hanging onto him? 

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, South Dakota Tom said:

I think his best value to us is in the future; if he turns into a masher at 1B, great.  If he remains as a cost-controlled 1B, 3B in a pinch, platoon whatever, that is still something.  Right now, he's not good (see Trevor Larnach last year and the howls to give him away; see, also, Matt Wallner this year and same howls).  A change of scenery might do him some good, but what does it do for us?

There are 3 types of players you look to trade; 1) those on expiring contracts who won't sign with us again; 2) players who are blocking the future (i.e., positions of strength); 3) players who will bring back a haul and fill in gaps that are more valuable than the existing player.

Royce is none of those things.  We are not going to be blown away by any offers for him and shouldn't give him up just for a middling RP.  Our infield isn't that deep right now.

 

Great post. I don’t see a compelling reason to trade him now. God forbid there might be some stability at 1B since Joe Mauer retired in 2018… Let’s play it out. Who else are they gonna get with the upside Lewis still has?

 

[D.C Twins]

The sad thing is that it just doesn't even matter.

He is never going to be consistently average much less elite and he also will not bring back anything meaningful in a trade.

So... honestly a nothingburger discussion at this point

[D.C Twins]

6 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Would the Giants be interested in him at all?  Would they do a Lewis for Arraez straight up?    

-  I am starting to come up with a reasonable direction for moving forward

1.  Arraez for Lewis - move Clemens back to 1st - the production on the right side is improved.  Its a short term gain but at this point I don't think Lewis is in the long term plans. This move alone would be looked on positively by fans and would give cover to the front office for getting rid of Lewis.   

2. Jeffers and prospect for Hancock.  Utilize Caratini and Jackson as the catchers.  

3.  Trade for another leverage reliever and call it day.    

Hold on to Ryan unless you get a crazy offer.   The offense is flat in my opinion but you are gaining one of the best contact hitters that can work a count.   Starting pitching is improved.   Bullpen is improved and you didn't have to give up much prospect capital to do it.    I think all in all most would be ok with this outcome.   

(Narrator's Voice) The Giants just giggled and hung up the phone in response to the proposal of Lewis for Arraez

[Richie the Rally Goat]

6 hours ago, LyleCole said:

I don't recall saying I would call up just one position player.   Read what I wrote again.

And, yeah, I am going to call him up.  He can get a lot of PAs playing the outfield and DHing without impacting anyone, especially if we traded Bell and Larnach.  I could even see him playing some 1B.   It is a no risk move that would only have upside to it.  If he fails, he is released in the offseason.  If he plays well, like he has sporadically in the past, then he might have some value to the Twins or another team in a minor offseason deal.  

 

You might want to brush up on the mlb roster rules

 

[Vanimal46]

56 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

If you're hanging onto him then he's staying on the active roster right? What is he figuring out in AAA, and if the Twins are planning to replace him at 1B, what's the point of hanging onto him? 

He has 2 option years remaining. Nothing stopping us from sending him to St Paul. I’d rather have a former #1 overall pick as AAAA filler as a worst case scenario. Wouldn’t you over Orlando Arcia types?

[arby58]

4 hours ago, NYCTK said:

Not just a reliever. One of the most effective relief pitchers in all of baseball at that time, with 2 more years of control. 

Plus, a reliever that many people, like myself, believed would be able to move back to the rotation and be effective there. 

He requested a trade. The Twins accepted the request. Doesn’t sound like the kind of player you want in your clubhouse.

[arby58]

28 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

He has 2 option years remaining. Nothing stopping us from sending him to St Paul. I’d rather have a former #1 overall pick as AAAA filler as a worst case scenario. Wouldn’t you over Orlando Arcia types?

We don’t need the baggage of ‘a former #1 overall pick’ hanging around as AAAA filler. That’s toxic for both sides. Sometimes, you’ve just got to let them go - for the sake of both parties.

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, arby58 said:

He requested a trade. The Twins accepted the request. Doesn’t sound like the kind of player you want in your clubhouse.

With an outcome that good, it makes me wish Justin Lawrence, Luis Garcia, or Austin Voth would have stormed into the General Manager's office and demanded to be traded.  Woo-Suk Go, don't you feel just a little bit angry right now?

[Vanimal46]

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

We don’t need the baggage of ‘a former #1 overall pick’ hanging around as AAAA filler. That’s toxic for both sides. Sometimes, you’ve just got to let them go - for the sake of both parties.

The Twins and Lewis appear to have passed the toxic stage. Lewis is now playing anywhere in the infield. There’s no benefit selling this low on Lewis. He’s making $3-5 million next year with option years. 

[Linus]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

If you're hanging onto him then he's staying on the active roster right? What is he figuring out in AAA, and if the Twins are planning to replace him at 1B, what's the point of hanging onto him? 

Injury depth - possible utility man. 

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The Twins and Lewis appear to have passed the toxic stage. Lewis is now playing anywhere in the infield. There’s no benefit selling this low on Lewis. He’s making $3-5 million next year with option years. 

Where it comes to selling low on anyone, the information none of us has but would be crucial is this: if Derek Shelton, who seems to be a level-headed people person, tells his FO, "you've got to get this guy [and I'm by no means singling out Royce Lewis in this general observation] out of my clubhouse," that would be a valid reason.

[arby58]

6 minutes ago, ashbury said:

With an outcome that good, it makes me wish Justin Lawrence, Luis Garcia, or Austin Voth would have stormed into the General Manager's office and demanded to be traded.  Woo-Suk Go, don't you feel just a little bit angry right now?

Besides parody, what is your point?

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, arby58 said:

Besides parody

You read me like a book.  That was all.

[Vanimal46]

3 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Where it comes to selling low on anyone, the information none of us has but would be crucial is this: if Derek Shelton, who seems to be a level-headed people person, tells his FO, "you've got to get this guy [and I'm by no means singling out Royce Lewis in this general observation] out of my clubhouse," that would be a valid reason.

Correct. Anything inside the building that we are not privy to as fans is fair game. After the fact we will be informed of that. 

[LyleCole]

2 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

You might want to brush up on the mlb roster rules

 

Sure, but again, I would anticipate many roster moves at the deadline with many spots opening up on both the active roster and the 40 man roster.   Wallner would be a player I call up, I guess one time or the other to get one final chance to show if he can hit MLB pitching.  Hell, if he whiffs 50% of the first 25 PAs, waive him and bring up another.   

If the Twins are actually competing in September, then the entire Wallner scenario is moot.   

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

He has 2 option years remaining. Nothing stopping us from sending him to St Paul. I’d rather have a former #1 overall pick as AAAA filler as a worst case scenario. Wouldn’t you over Orlando Arcia types?

 

2 hours ago, Linus said:

Injury depth - possible utility man. 

I know he has options. Sending him to AAA to start next season kills whatever value he might have left outside of MN, and honestly having him in AAA isn't valuable. If the Twins don't see room for him on the 2027 active roster, i.e. he isn't one of the 13 best position players in the org after 5+ seasons, then he's Matt Wallner, at which point the options are borderline irrelevant. You might as well just sell at this deadline. Also, Idk why you'd pay $3-4M for 1B depth at AAA, that seems like a pretty poor allocation of resources too. 

[DocBauer]

I'm just going to step beyond all the comments at this point.

1] Lewis will never be what was hoped for. Period. 

2] He's actually a pretty solid 3B, a semi decent 2B, but with VERY limited exposure there, he looks like a very natural 1B given some time.

3] He's an emotionally, confident player who needs to feel "good". He came back from his AAA demotion with his old swagger. While not his speedy previous self,  he's even been stealing some bases. 

While it's not what we wanted from him, or expected, he's actually started to show the confidence swagger he needs to be productive.  

IMO, he's about 90% mental where he's supposed to be. He's about 75% on swing approach where he's supposed to be. His approach gets to 90%, he's close to being what we hoped for all these years.

I'm just not ready to give up on the light bulb turning on at this point. Besides injuries holding him back, I believe supreme confidence has held him back. I think he's suddenly realized he's mortal. 

And even though he might finally be begining to realize his limitations as a ballplayer, there's still so much potential if he just realizes he doesn't have to be Superman. 

[Twins 72]

Out of all the positions, I think 1B is the one that seems to be his best. Just be the eye test. He is not quite the athlete he used to be because of injury, but he is still a pretty athletic first baseman. We really don't have anyone knocking on the door for that spot. Stick him at first for a full year and see how that goes. Having an off-season to prepare for that position might make him a better overall hitter. Develop a plan stick to hit for a full season and see whether he can have salvage his career.