Would Tom Pohlad Really Trade Joe Ryan?

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, SarasotaBill said:

You need at least two elite starting pitchers in the playoffs. Unless you trade Ryan for a Kade Anderson (elite pitching prospect) it doesn't make sense to trade him before the CBA contract is done. If the Twins can't extend him after the new CBA is finalized then trade him then.

What if Joe Ryan blows his elbow out like Pablo Lopez? If you can't get a Kade Anderson now, why would you be able to get a Kade Anderson when you're only giving the other team 1 playoff run with him?

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, mike8791 said:

You can't really discuss "trading ryan" without an idea of who you should get in return.  First, you don't trade Ryan if you have a better than average chance of contending for the playoffs this year.  The Twins 4 game losing streak would seem to put that possibility to rest.  After all, most of us believe this team has over-performed this year so a return to the expected is not surprising.  With that said, then listening to offers for Ryan should be on Zoll's play list the next 12 days.

But a trade for prospects is not the answer.  A fair return would be at least one starter to replace Ryan(albeit not an equivalent but a #3 starter),  a near-ready major-league-ready infielder who has a better than even chance of filling the huge hole in the #3/4 spot in the lineup in the next 1-2 years, and maybe a high minor league pitching prospect who can reach the majors by 2028.  

Is that expecting too much?  Perhaps, but this is what the FO should be striving for if Ryan is dealt.  A Jeffers trade, which is certainly more probable, should bring in a late-inning reliever and a solid pitching prospect.  Such additions, should improve our chances to be true contenders in the next 1-2 years.  Unfortunately, I, too, have great reservations on Zoll's ability to structure such transactions.

You're being a bit unreasonable but only by a magnitude. 

The Freddy Peralta trade is a pretty good comp for Ryan with a potential for a little extra considering the additional 3 months. 

So, no, the Twins aren't getting a #3 in return for Joe Ryan (who himself is only a #2). But you can expect a Brandon Sproat type who was about a #80 prospect and seems like a sold #4/5 for years with a potential of becoming a #2/3. And he's not quite major league ready, but Jett Williams, about a top 30 prospect at the time he was traded, is about what you're asking for, even if you're again being a bit unreasonable asking that prospect to be able to be the cleanup hitter next season. And then, yeah, a third prospect outside the top 100 but not far off. 

 

[chinmusic]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

the season kept ending before the playoffs...

as it will for the Jays this year.....

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

How badly do they want Joe Ryan for 2027,  is that the question we are asking ourselves?  I think it is more complicated than that.   

I should have clarified.. that was the question for potential suitors.

[amjgt]

2 hours ago, olerud said:

I love Joe Ryan,  however trading him now is the right move!!!! If you want sustainability this is the way you achieve it! Fans are dumb they don't understand the business side! You have to move your assets when you can otherwise you get nothing!

This dumb fan disagrees.

Your argument hinges on the last word.... "nothing" which just isn't true, no matter if you want to look at it literally, or a bit more holistically. 

 

[Patzky]

39 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What if Joe Ryan blows his elbow out like Pablo Lopez? If you can't get a Kade Anderson now, why would you be able to get a Kade Anderson when you're only giving the other team 1 playoff run with him?

The what ifs.. what if you get Brock Stewart and he gets injured immediately.. it's always a worry but not a driver unless there's a History.

[SarasotaBill]

40 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

What if Joe Ryan blows his elbow out like Pablo Lopez? If you can't get a Kade Anderson now, why would you be able to get a Kade Anderson when you're only giving the other team 1 playoff run with him?

The new CBA will have term limits if the owners get their way.

If the owners get their way then the team salary floor will be $170 million.

No one can predict what will happen with the new CBA but that will be the best time to try to resign Ryan.

The injury possibility is a concern so if you can get an elite arm then do it now but if not then wait for the new CBA.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Patzky said:

The what ifs.. what if you get Brock Stewart and he gets injured immediately.. it's always a worry but not a driver unless there's a History.

If the argument is "don't trade him now unless you can get X in return" then it absolutely needs to be part of the equation. The risk of losing a player (won't have him for the playoffs, may not get a player as good as him back, etc.) are always mentioned. A large part of the argument for not trading him is that you can do it later. Well, what if you can't? That needs to be part of the equation.

And there is a history with Joe Ryan. He never finishes seasons strong. Ever. His value is going to take a hit automatically due to the control being less. But if he has his typical 2nd half performance, it's going to tank even more. There is very real risk in holding Joe Ryan. See Lopez, Pablo for example. And the idea that you need to get prospect X now or he's not worth trading just doesn't make sense, because if you can't get them now, you're not getting them with less control of Ryan.

[chinmusic]

Ryan's last outing was extraordinary, and not in a good way.  Wonder if there is anything going on...

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, SarasotaBill said:

The new CBA will have term limits if the owners get their way.

If the owners get their way then the team salary floor will be $170 million.

No one can predict what will happen with the new CBA but that will be the best time to try to resign Ryan.

The injury possibility is a concern so if you can get an elite arm then do it now but if not then wait for the new CBA.

What if the new CBA makes Joe Ryan a free agent the second it's signed? What if Joe Ryan simply wants to go back to California and isn't interested in staying here no matter what the salary floor is?

The Twins already talked to Joe Ryan about 2027. He has an option for next year that was agreed to when he signed his deal for this year. I guess it's possible 2028 and beyond was never even mentioned when talking about 2027, but that feels unlikely. Dan Hayes reported that Joe Ryan was looking for 7 years, 210 million to sign an extension. If the owners don't get their way on a cap, Joe isn't staying here. If the owners do get their way with a cap, it's still very possible that Joe isn't staying here.

The point is that there's very real risk in not trading Joe Ryan before the deadline. If Joe's afraid there's going to be a drastic change in the CBA that will cost him money with his next deal, he's going to be the one driving extension talks right now. The odds of Joe signing an extension just because there's a new CBA in place are very low, in my opinion. If he won't sign for less than 7, 210 now, I find it very unlikely that he's willing to sign for less than that in the offseason.

[mike8791]

11 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

You're being a bit unreasonable but only by a magnitude. 

The Freddy Peralta trade is a pretty good comp for Ryan with a potential for a little extra considering the additional 3 months. 

So, no, the Twins aren't getting a #3 in return for Joe Ryan (who himself is only a #2). But you can expect a Brandon Sproat type who was about a #80 prospect and seems like a sold #4/5 for years with a potential of becoming a #2/3. And he's not quite major league ready, but Jett Williams, about a top 30 prospect at the time he was traded, is about what you're asking for, even if you're again being a bit unreasonable asking that prospect to be able to be the cleanup hitter next season. And then, yeah, a third prospect outside the top 100 but not far off. 

 

Agree my wish list is somewhat unreasonable, as obtaining all 3 of players mentioned would be an overpay, but there can be little doubt one of the trade pieces must be an established mid-rotation MLB pitcher who can step in immediately and be controllable for 3-4 years.  As for the mid-lineup addition, no, I wouldn't expect an established cleanup hitter to be in the trade package, but some under 25yo who might be blocked now on a roster but with some demonstrated power potential is badly needed,  particularly in the IF.  I just don't think you can build a solid contender with guys like Lewis, Lee or Clemens as starters.  And adding a top 100 pitching prospect is certainly doable for a #1 or 2 starter with one year + of control.  We simply have a dearth of competent starters in our minor league system.

[amjgt]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

What if Joe Ryan blows his elbow out like Pablo Lopez? If you can't get a Kade Anderson now, why would you be able to get a Kade Anderson when you're only giving the other team 1 playoff run with him?

My issue is, the "what ifs" can be played in both directions. Not just what if the prospects we get for Joe Ryan turn out to be Kohl Stewarts, but what if having Joe Ryan on the Twins leads to a 90+ win 2027 squad that has a decent chance to come out of the AL?

What if trading him now prevents that? What if we trade Joe Ryan and this time next year we aren't quite good enough to go for it and we start doing the "future value" math on Taj? Well... you know,,, he's down to 2.5 years of team control and he's getting expensive. Should we maximize his value? We could probably get some good prospects

What if we hadn't traded Duran and Varland last year? What if having them on the team this year instead of the contributions of Abel, Rojas, and Roden would've meant we were 5 games better? Maybe then we're buyers and rather than worrying about adding bullpen depth, we're looking at one big SP move that's going to move us up a notch in the AL power rankings?

What if the mindset of being a seller every year in an effort to permanently maximize value turns into a search for a future competitive team that never comes? The "go for it" team never arrives because past selloffs have hamstrung teams that maybe otherwise could have gone for it. 

[amjgt]

This isn't me saying "The Twins should never be sellers." I was in favor of almost all of the move they made last deadline (including Duran). There's a time and a place.

But I just don't want to be a franchise that's always selling and I worry that being a seller again in 2026, pushes us down that path.