The Difference Between Good and Great for Kendry Rojas Is Surprisingly Simple

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Kendry Rojas has become one of the biggest wild cards on the Twins' roster. There have been outings where he looks dominant, carving through hitters with overpowering stuff for three or four innings at a time. Then there have been appearances like his last two in the majors, where he walked three hitters across just two innings and struggled to consistently throw competitive pitches.

At this point, it's incredibly difficult to predict which version of Rojas is going to show up on any given day. That's also what makes him so fascinating, because underneath the inconsistency is a pitcher with an incredibly encouraging foundation. The raw ingredients are there for a very good major-league arm. If Rojas can find a little more consistency—particularly with his control—the Twins could have something special.

His arsenal lays the groundwork for success. Rojas's fastball sits around 96 MPH, giving him the kind of velocity that's difficult to teach. Pair that with his relatively high 44° arm angle, and the pitch generates more ride through the top of the strike zone than the average fastball. It's the kind of fastball that naturally sets up everything else. His slider and changeup have both flashed as legitimate swing-and-miss offerings. Neither pitch has an eye-popping movement profile compared to other breaking balls around the league, but they've consistently generated an absurd number of whiffs when Rojas actually lands them in competitive locations.

But that's where the biggest issue begins. Control has been Rojas's biggest obstacle this season, and the numbers paint a pretty clear picture. Just 42% of all the pitches he's thrown this year have actually landed inside the strike zone. There are certainly pitchers who can live outside the zone and still dominate. A lot of them intentionally work off the plate, because they generate so many chase swings from hitters. Rojas hasn't been able to do that. His chase rate sits at just 25%, which isn't nearly high enough to make up for throwing so few strikes. Hitters aren't expanding the zone; they just wait him out. That's been the frustrating part, because in many cases, Rojas is actually doing the hard part first.

He's getting ahead of hitters more than two-thirds of the time. That's usually where pitchers gain complete control of an at-bat. Instead, it often feels like Rojas starts trying to be too cute. Rather than attacking hitters with his excellent stuff, he'll nibble around the edges, looking for the perfect pitch instead of the competitive one. Too often, those favorable counts turn into long at-bats, walks, or situations where hitters are suddenly back in control.

That’s a problem for any pitcher, but Rojas especially, because hitters really haven't been squaring him up all that often. The quality of contact he’s allowed has been encouraging. His hard-hit rate sits comfortably better than the league average. The same goes for his average exit velocity allowed. He's generating ground balls at an above-average clip, another indicator that hitters aren't consistently making authoritative contact. Those are all signs of a pitcher whose raw stuff is working. Add in the number of swings and misses he generates when pitching in the zone, and it's easy to see the blueprint of a quality major-league pitcher.

The foundation is absolutely there. But unfortunately, none of that matters if hitters aren't uncomfortable. Walking nearly one out of every five hitters you face is incredibly difficult to overcome, no matter how electric your arsenal might be. Rojas currently owns a 19.5% walk rate, which puts a ceiling on what he can accomplish right now. That's not to say he needs to completely reinvent himself, however.

Rojas has never been a pitcher who lives in the strike zone. Throughout his development, he's succeeded while working around it and using his stuff to entice hitters into chasing pitches. That approach can absolutely work. The problem is that major-league hitters are a completely different challenge. They're more disciplined, they're more selective, and they're much more comfortable taking borderline pitches until you prove you're willing to consistently throw strikes. At this level, you have to earn those chase swings. Rojas simply hasn't done that often enough.

If anything, the adjustment feels relatively straightforward. He doesn't need to suddenly become a command artist or start filling up the strike zone on every pitch. He just needs to trust his stuff a little more. His fastball has enough life to miss barrels. His slider and changeup already generate plenty of empty swings. The contact he's allowing is generally weak, and he keeps the ball on the ground better than a lot of pitchers do. Those are all traits that should encourage him to attack hitters more aggressively, instead of trying to paint the corners with every two-strike pitch. Right now, it feels like Rojas is giving hitters opportunities to work themselves back into at-bats that he should be in control of. That's been the frustrating part of watching his development. The upside is obvious, but it’s getting overshadowed by self-inflicted mistakes.

The good news is that Rojas is still just 23 years old. There's plenty of time for the consistency to come. Whether that ultimately happens in the rotation or out of the bullpen remains to be seen. His arsenal certainly gives him the ceiling of a quality major-league starter, but it could also make him a dominant late-inning reliever if that's the path the Twins eventually choose. Either way, the raw talent is undeniable.

The Twins don't need Rojas to become a different pitcher. They need him to give himself a chance to succeed. It starts with trusting your stuff and throwing more competitive pitches in the strike zone. If he can do that, the foundation of an impact major-league arm is already there.

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[Patzky]

I thought this analysis was exactly what Zebby had issue with in Chicago. Catching staff, I know they split the duties, need to know the staff and adjust quicker when the wheels are about to fall off. They've done a great job with challenges and hitting. Defense and game management.. more can be done. By all of them.

[Linus]

It’s a story as old as the game itself. Good stuff is great; control is indispensable. 

[thelanges5]

32 minutes ago, Patzky said:

I thought this analysis was exactly what Zebby had issue with in Chicago. Catching staff, I know they split the duties, need to know the staff and adjust quicker when the wheels are about to fall off. They've done a great job with challenges and hitting. Defense and game management.. more can be done. By all of them.

Zebby has the control but not the command. That’s been a problem for him since he’s been up. He and Rojas may be better suited for a bullpen role. 

[terrydactyls]

He has control but not command?  Explain the difference, please.

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

He has control but not command?  Explain the difference, please.

nah, that wasn't the best article. I'll look again....

but, basically, control is the ability to throw strikes in the zone. Command is the ability to throw a pitch WHERE you want to throw it. 

[Colbeh]

3 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

He has control but not command?  Explain the difference, please.

Control means he can throw strikes, command is throwing a strike in the right location.

He can hit the target, he just can't hit the bullseye