Minnesota Twins Prospect Retrospective: Marco Raya

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Marco Raya has never followed a conventional development path. Selected by the Twins in the fourth round of the 2020 MLB Draft out of high school in Texas, Raya immediately encountered obstacles. The pandemic wiped out his professional debut after signing, and a shoulder strain cost him the entire 2021 season. Before he ever threw an official professional pitch, the right-hander had already lost two critical years of development.

What followed was a prospect journey defined by patience, flashes of brilliance, and constant questions about what Raya would ultimately become.

Electric Stuff From the Beginning

When Raya finally debuted in 2022, the talent was obvious. The results were often inconsistent, but evaluators couldn't ignore the quality of his arsenal. In 65 innings, he posted a 3.05 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, 28.9 K%, and 8.7 BB%. Minnesota pushed him to High-A and Double-A during the 2023 season, where he continued to strike out over 25% of batters and kept his walk rate below 9%.

Throughout his climb through the system, Raya featured one of the more intriguing collections of pitches in the Twins organization. His fastball sat comfortably in the mid-90s, while his high-spin breaking balls consistently generated ugly swings from hitters who often had no business being fooled by someone several years younger.

As a result, Raya became a fixture near the top of Twins prospect rankings despite concerns that never seemed to disappear. His workload was carefully managed, his command could be erratic, and his statistical production rarely matched the quality of his raw stuff. Still, the upside was difficult to ignore. By 2024, everything appeared to be coming together.

A Breakthrough Season

Raya took a significant step forward in 2024, climbing all the way to Triple-A St. Paul and forcing his way onto Minnesota's 40-man roster. For the first time in his professional career, it looked like the Twins could be developing a legitimate homegrown starting pitcher capable of impacting the major-league rotation.

In 97 2/3 innings, he posted a 4.05 ERA with a 24.6 K% and a 10.5 BB%. As a 21-year-old, he faced older batters in all but 41 plate appearances for the year, making his performance even more impressive. He held younger batters to a .502 OPS with 10 strikeouts and two walks in 39 at-bats.

Even then, however, some warning signs remained. The organization continued to handle him cautiously. Since being drafted, Raya had never reached the 100-inning mark in a season. Durability questions lingered, and command remained a work in progress. The raw ingredients were there, but the profile still required significant refinement. Then came 2025.

Triple-A Reality Check

Raya's return to St. Paul last season proved to be the most difficult stretch of his professional career. Instead of building on his momentum, he struggled to consistently throw strikes and put hitters away. Walks mounted, wild pitches became common, and outings frequently turned into labor-intensive battles.

By season's end, Raya posted a 6.02 ERA with a 12.6 BB%, the highest mark of his career. For the first time since entering professional baseball, he looked overwhelmed rather than overpowering.

The struggles shouldn't completely overshadow the context. Raya spent much of the season as a 22-year-old facing older, more experienced hitters at Triple-A. Few pitchers move as aggressively through the Twins system, and development is rarely linear. Still, the season reinforced what many scouts and evaluators had suspected for years. His future may not be in a starting rotation.

The Bullpen Transition

The Twins began moving Raya toward relief work late last season, and all indications suggest that transition is now effectively complete. Frankly, the move makes sense.

Raya's combination of stuff, durability concerns, and inconsistent command has long pointed toward a bullpen role. Shorter outings should allow him to focus on his strengths while minimizing some of the weaknesses that surfaced as a starter.

His fastball already sits in the 95-97 mph range and has climbed higher as he has moved to a more consistent relief role. The sweeper, thrown around 86 mph, remains his signature weapon and continues to generate swings and misses even during last year's struggles. He’s thrown that pitch nearly 30% of the time at Triple-A this year.

His mid-80s curveball gives him another legitimate bat-missing offering, particularly against left-handed hitters, while his cutter sits around 90-91 mph and provides another useful look. As a starter, Raya experimented with as many as six pitches. As a reliever, he'll likely need only a handful.

Why There's Still Reason for Optimism

Despite the disappointing results in 2025, it's important to remember what hasn't changed. Raya is still just 23 years old, even though Twins fans have heard about him for multiple seasons.

Raya's overall numbers at Triple-A in 2026 will look poor with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Most of the damage done against him came in April when he allowed a 1.129 OPS and had an 11.68 ERA. Over the last 28 days, he has a 1.64 ERA and 0.64 WHIP, with 11 strikeouts and no walks in 11 innings.

The Twins remain convinced he has major-league talent, which is why they've continued to invest in his development and protected him on the 40-man roster. The quality of his stuff has never been in question. The challenge has always been finding the role that maximizes it.

Raya's prospect stock may have taken a hit after a difficult season in St. Paul, but his story is far from finished. In many ways, his transition to the bullpen may represent less of a setback and more of a beginning. For years, the Twins have searched for the best way to unlock his talent. Now they may finally have found it.

What role do you envision for Raya in Minnesota's bullpen: middle reliever, setup man, or someone capable of eventually closing games? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[DJL44]

He can help if he keeps his ERA below 5

[jkcarew]

Just use him, please. And he’ll have to figure out how to be available more than once a week which has basically been the MO in St. Paul. Guess it shouldn’t matter immediately, but not viable once his options expire, obviously.

[miller761]

Good to see the young guy get his chance. I can watch a young guy struggle instead of a retread throwing a prayer up to home plate. The youth movement is on... who will be next?

[mikelink45]

Wait and see - better than another DFA pickup

[DocBauer]

I'm going to admit some disappointment in Raya as he was one of my favorite prospects his first few seasons, and I couldn't wait to him pitch. When they drafted him, and I heard about some great STUFF for a HS kid, and being a good athlete, and having a bit of bulldog in him...considering he wasn't the biggest kid in the world, I thought maybe we got another Berrios.

Alas, we all know how jis journey has transpired.

But I've been VERY excited about him post a horrendous April. He's really settled in and seems to have found his role. With 4 solid pitches and a starter's background, I can see him capable of being a 2 inning arm initially. But if the STUFF is as good as advertised, it's possible he transitions to a higher spot at the end of the pen eventually. For now, it's going to be a lot of fun watching his initial entry in to MLB as a hard throwing middle man with K ability. 

I'm not exactly expecting greatness right off the bat. But as @miller761sstated, I'd much rather watch a young arm struggle but gain experience than watch another over 30yo DFA option get those innings. 

Losing Festa for the season...to this point at least...has been a real bummer and a potentially serious loss for the bullpen. Losing Cory Lewis until just recently was also a major bummer as I still have this gut feeling he could be a really good middle man who baffles opposing lineups for a couple innings. Might that still happen later this season?

But Gomez has been a 26yo surprise revelation, even if some regression is eventually due. Morris has really taken to his bullpen role and I think his ERA is very misleading for what he's done and the potential he's shown. Personally, I think Rojas is going to end up as a late inning power arm by next season, if not later on this year. I also think that Banda, not too old, still under control, should be brought back as well.

Now, Raya still has a lot to prove. And there are going to be growing pains. But I can live with that! His promotion is about potential and HIS future, and the future of the Twins bullpen. His command/control is going to be an issue until he proves it's not. But maybe he's just "wired" in a way where he mentally focuses better in shorter bursts than being a starter.

Again, I'm very excited. But I hope the promotions don't end there. I think we'll see CJ Culpepper up before the season is over as well. And I'm still crossing my fingers that Festa isn't done for the entire season and might be up August, or even September, to get his feet wet in the pen.

Slowly but surely, we're STARTING to form a relatively young pen with potential.

But a small warning, let's give Raya a little rope before we make any rash determinations about his future. He's still young and has a live arm. He might not look like a stud over night.

[strumdatjag]

If it doesn’t work this time, don’t give up.  Patience is very important.  
But if he clicks immediately, it’s huge. 

[MinnInPa]

nope.. dont feel good about this one at all. he hasn't dominated at any level ..now you're throwing him to the wolves ?? we'll see

[Road trip]

48 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

nope.. dont feel good about this one at all. he hasn't dominated at any level ..now you're throwing him to the wolves ?? we'll see

I agree, at least short term.  I'll be pleasantly surprised if he doesn't get shelled in his first couple of call ups.  But perhaps that is the point.  Get the learning done in 2026 while he rides the shuttle back and forth from St Paul.  Expect a little better in 2027, while still riding the shuttle.  Perhaps a bullpen anchor by 2028?  That may even be optimistic given his minor league numbers, but if his stuff is really that electric we can hope that he will develop the needed control that he doesn't currently posses.

[jmlease1]

Much rather see them take a look at Raya, figure out what works and what might not, see if he's ready or needs more work in AAA than throw games and innings away with guys like Voth.

There's real upside here. I expect him to impress at times and struggle as well, but he could be a very useful piece going forward and it's something we need to start figuring out now so we can try and get some of these pieces locked down in the bullpen.

[MinnInPa]

36 minutes ago, Road trip said:

I agree, at least short term.  I'll be pleasantly surprised if he doesn't get shelled in his first couple of call ups.  But perhaps that is the point.  Get the learning done in 2026 while he rides the shuttle back and forth from St Paul.  Expect a little better in 2027, while still riding the shuttle.  Perhaps a bullpen anchor by 2028?  That may even be optimistic given his minor league numbers, but if his stuff is really that electric we can hope that he will develop the needed control that he doesn't currently posses.

lets hope for the best...none of the others coming up thru the ranks have taken the league by storm.. i really thought Funderburk was gonna be great...nope....jury is still out on Adams and Morris....we need relievers that miss bats

[bean5302]

I'm pretty skeptical about Raya. His past 10 appearances have been dominant. "Electric stuff" is seemingly untrue as the results speak for themselves. The promise of prospect hype and scouting reports fade quick when players are tested against high minors and MLB level challengers. The ever-present TD Hype Machine tool of comparing average ages for leagues vs prospects in the system concluding every trash performance was expected because of age kept Raya at the top of the list around here for a long time.

Supposedly, Raya's big issue has been the inability to hit the broad side of a barn, but it's more of hope rather than confidence because truly great stuff doesn't need to land for strikes in MiLB. MiLB hitters can't lay off great pitches that are well outside the zone. That's why those hitters aren't in the show. Raya still has potential, but he's going to need to develop command over a couple of his pitches before adding the full repertoire back into things. To build on his MLB-worthy options, he'll need to stick around in MLB long enough.

Last 10 appearances in AAA
17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 2.32 FIP, 9.00 K/9, 0.00 BB/9, 27.4% K, 0.0% BB WHIP 0.71, BABIP .250

He's literally walked nobody, and he hasn't allowed many hits. We'll see.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/marco-raya-694397?stats=career-r-pitching-milb

2026

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 60 | Cutter: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall: 45

Originally drafted out of the Texas high school ranks in the fourth round of the 2020 Draft, Raya didn’t make his official pro debut until 2022, with the pandemic ruining any chance of him pitching after he signed and then a shoulder strain forcing him off the mound for all of 2021. He showed glimpses of potential on limited workloads the next two seasons, then took off and reached Triple-A in 2024, earning a spot on the 40-man roster. A return to Triple-A St. Paul in 2025 did not go as well as planned.

A combination of size, concerns about durability and command issues are now pointing Raya towards a future in the bullpen, a transition that started at the end of last year. One of the big adjustments will be to pare down a repertoire that has had as many as six pitches in it. The fastball-sweeper combination will likely lead the way, with the heater coming in around 95-97 mph and the 86-mph slider missing a lot of bats even while he scuffled last year. His mid-80s curve can also make hitters look bad and he has a 90-91 mph cutter as well. 

The curve gets misses against left-handed hitters, so he might not need to worry about developing his changeup, which had good action to it, but he couldn’t land in the zone. There could be more ticks in the four-seamer coming in shorter stints, and he won’t have to worry as much about his command. If he can settle on a smaller menu in his new role, he could develop into a starter-turned-effective reliever kind of like former Twin Ronny Henriquez.

[gman]

Morris, Raya, Banda, Sands, Gomez, Orze, Klein, Paredes, and Culpepper looks like the group of names for next years bullpen at this point.  Raya might as well be moved to the Twins bullpen at least by the allstar game. I may have missed a couple of names, but they have a half season to find most of next years bullpen.

[mickster]

5 minutes ago, gman said:

Morris, Raya, Banda, Sands, Gomez, Orze, Klein, Paredes, and Culpepper looks like the group of names for next years bullpen at this point.  Raya might as well be moved to the Twins bullpen at least by the allstar game. I may have missed a couple of names, but they have a half season to find most of next years bullpen.

Festa should be in that group of BP arms

[gman]

13 minutes ago, mickster said:

Festa should be in that group of BP arms

I meant ti include him

[jmlease1]

32 minutes ago, mickster said:

Festa should be in that group of BP arms

Can't really include him until he actually gets back to pitching. I'm rooting for the dude, but he's coming back from a serious and complicated injury with poor success rates. He's closer to Matt Canterino right now than the bullpen.

[Linus]

14 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Can't really include him until he actually gets back to pitching. I'm rooting for the dude, but he's coming back from a serious and complicated injury with poor success rates. He's closer to Matt Canterino right now than the bullpen.

Unfortunately this is a very accurate assessment. 

[mickster]

6 minutes ago, Linus said:

Unfortunately this is a very accurate assessment. 

This is a true statement - hoping for a better result

[Jim H]

I am rooting for Raya. I would rather see the young guys with live arms pitch than the rotating vets who don't have the stuff to succeed or have struggled with control for years. At least there is hope the young guys might improve.

I also wish TD would drop the young for level excuse for poor performance. Mostly high school draftees were drafted because they exhibited superior talent and maturity at young age. They have also, along with young international talent,  been held in the complex league until they dominate that level, where they are age appropriate. Injuries can be more of an excuse, but Raya  has been a pro long enough that he had to be added to the 40 man. Age really shouldn't be a factor in whether he can succeed at higher minor league levels. Talent and the ability to adjust to better competition are bigger factors.