Joe Ryan and the Elephant in the Room

[Original_JB]

I think MLB has expanded the playoffs to the point where the diluted quality of some of the teams involved (supposed "contenders") are deluded in their thinking that they actually have a chance to go somewhere.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

They absolutely do not need to trade Joe Ryan at the deadline. There is a key piece missing to any discussion about moving Ryan in a transaction. What is the return? The Twins do not need more DH type players. They do not need any more back of the rotation pitchers. The club has a plethora of iffy LH hitting OF prospects. Finally, the organization has more than enough utility infielders. If the Twins can somehow finagle a top prospect from a team, even if a couple of Twins prospects are added to Ryan, make a deal. I don't want the team to add any more "maybe" players because just getting a draft choice is as good as those maybes. So .... strong return = yes .... weak return = no.

Plus the fact that there may be an MLB shut down in 2027, would be a consideration for any team wanting to trade for Ryan.  That fact lessens Ryan's value as far as assuming he is "under control"  in 2027.  Prospects will always be "possibilities". The Joe Ryan Experience is not a possibility, but rather the real deal for this season and in 2027. The argument that Joe "might get hurt" can apply to  every player, including the valuable prospects received for Joe in a trade.

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Are we convinced this is the right path forward, even if he's willing to accept it? The track record of paying 30+ year old pitchers that kind of money is not good. Large-market teams can afford it, which is why they're basically the only ones who make such deals.

Even if payroll goes up somewhat that's a big fraction annually going to one aging starter, for a franchise that (rightfully) prides itself on pitching development. 

Personally, I think the options are: trade him or plan to offer a QO following 2027. But as mentioned by commenters above, there's just so much uncertainty with next season and the CBA that there's major risk in not charting a decisive path now.

You're never sure about the decision to sign a big money contract. I am fine either way. I am not convinced they even want to, so I wanted them to trade him last offseason. 

But we gotta stop acting as though $30 million dollars AAV or $150 M total is some crazy contract out of reach for the Twins. The median payroll is something like $200 million. That is where the Twins SHOULD be, minimum, if they were trying to contend. If you're resigning Ryan, that's what you're committing to. So, no, that money is not a concern at all. 

[LastOnePicked]

This team has to - has to - maximize their future value with every transaction. Ownership and payroll is still a question mark. They're still several strong arms and bats away from contending. Teams like the Twins need to use savvy trades to sell high and buy low.

Jeffers, Buxton, Ryan and Lopez all should have been traded in the offseason. One is already off the table (Lopez), two are nearly off the table (Jeffers and Buxton) and Ryan has already had an injury scare. If they don't trade him and don't sign him, they will have lost tremendous future potential that could have been used to supplement the Abel/Jenkins/Culpepper era.

[JBK]

Pohlad better pull off a Herschel Walker trade or sign him long-term now.

[LambchoP]

I doubt we'll be able to extend him. If that's the case, the smart move would be to trade him at the deadline for a haul. Hopefully 2 top 100 prospects who are hopefully close to MLB ready. Maybe a solid SP prospect and a potential long term 1st baseman?

[laloesch]

4 hours ago, Old Twins Hat said:

Question:  If Ryan is "under control" through 2027, why do the Twins need to make the move at the deadline in 2026?

Because the 2027 season is likely lost due to an upcoming strike.  I would trade him now if they don't attempt to extend him, while he still has strong value.

[laloesch]

8 minutes ago, JBK said:

Pohlad better pull off a Herschel Walker trade or sign him long-term now.

uhhhhh....i hope you mean the reverse.  The Herschel Walker trade was an unmitigated disaster for the Vikings and basically set up the Cowboys for multiple superbowls.

[laloesch]

13 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

This team has to - has to - maximize their future value with every transaction. Ownership and payroll is still a question mark. They're still several strong arms and bats away from contending. Teams like the Twins need to use savvy trades to sell high and buy low.

Jeffers, Buxton, Ryan and Lopez all should have been traded in the offseason. One is already off the table (Lopez), two are nearly off the table (Jeffers and Buxton) and Ryan has already had an injury scare. If they don't trade him and don't sign him, they will have lost tremendous future potential that could have been used to supplement the Abel/Jenkins/Culpepper era.

THIS.  Ryan needs to be traded if they can't sign him.  They probably already know the answer.  Jeffers should have been traded at the end of last season, but they hung onto him and now he's down.  Buxton has a no full trade clause until 2028 if I remember correctly then it becomes a limited no trade clause.  However, after last season's deadline selloff there were grumblings that he would accept a trade for the right situation.  The Twins should have jumped on that.  Lopez was also receiving attention.

Simply put this team needs more talent at all levels.  A, AA, AAA, and the major league team. They have holes at 1st base, 2nd, 3rd, and short.  Culpepper will fill one, and possibly Keaschall too, but the rest are question marks.  Brooks Lee..... MAYBE.  Royce Lewis is teetering on the edge of has been.  From a macro perspective this team simply has too many holes to let guys as valuable as Ryan, Jeffers, Lopez, etc. walk without trading them.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, farmerguychris said:

I get that.... But what have Tampa and Milwaukee achieved by operating that way..... Neither have ever won a world series.  Isn't that the goal?  We have a known commodity in Ryan who can be a starter in the playoffs - if we trade him, we're hoping to get someone as good as Joe, but there is no guarantee the player we get in return ever even plays in the majors.  Has this Front Office proven they can be trusted to get a good return for Joe - I think that is a valid question.

No mid market team has win the WS in over twenty years, I think. 

A realistic goal is an exciting, very good team. Imo. 

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

No mid market team has win the WS in over twenty years, I think. 

A realistic goal is an exciting, very good team. Imo. 

St Louis and Kansas City are both significantly smaller markets and have won the World Series in that time. St. Louis twice. 

And that of course ignores teams like Detroit, Colorado, Tampa, Cleveland, and Arizona that have won pennants in that time as well. 

So...your thesis is not only wrong, it's very wrong.

[lukeduke1980]

Will there be a payroll floor as part of the cba?  If so I'd rather keep Ryan than sign a pile of Josh Bell contracts in order to meet the minimum.   

[Twins GFP]

4 hours ago, rdehring said:

Seems like an easy situation for management.  Talk to Joe in July with the intent to sign him to an extension.  If he and his agent say no, or their demands are unrealistic the Twins need to attempt to trade him before the deadline.  But only trade him if they get an excellent return, including a player or two who are ready to join the big club.  If they don't get that return, try again this winter at either an extension or trade.  Unfortunately, as mentioned above no one knows what will be happening this winter so a real decision is best made come July.

Forget the Twins record, forget the "rebuilding", forget the pending strike...

The Twins know how much they are willing to pay on a Joe Ryan extension. Give Joe that offer. If he passes, trade him.

As for him being under control next year? Better returns today, especially with the pending strike. But follow the adage "Better to move a player a year too early than a year too late". 

[4twinsJA]

There are a lot of good arguments on both sides of this issue. I love Ryan, but think best move for Twins  is to trade him at deadline this year if get the right pieces back. Twins don't have to move him this year, so hold out and get great value in return for Ryan. If not good enough offers, no trade.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, JBK said:

Pohlad better pull off a Herschel Walker trade or sign him long-term now.

I didnt even know Herschel Walker plays baseball!

[Dman]

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

St Louis and Kansas City are both significantly smaller markets and have won the World Series in that time. St. Louis twice. 

And that of course ignores teams like Detroit, Colorado, Tampa, Cleveland, and Arizona that have won pennants in that time as well. 

So...your thesis is not only wrong, it's very wrong.

I wouldn't consider ST Louis a small market.  They are not in the revenue sharing portion of Teams.  They've had a top 15 payroll in recent years.  They wouldn't qualify in my mind.

KC put together the last really good small market team in quite a while before Teams like the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets and Yankee's have tried to buy their way there. Odds are pretty stacked against small market teams IMO.

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, NYCTK said:

You're never sure about the decision to sign a big money contract. I am fine either way. I am not convinced they even want to, so I wanted them to trade him last offseason. 

But we gotta stop acting as though $30 million dollars AAV or $150 M total is some crazy contract out of reach for the Twins. The median payroll is something like $200 million. That is where the Twins SHOULD be, minimum, if they were trying to contend. If you're resigning Ryan, that's what you're committing to. So, no, that money is not a concern at all. 

"Should" is not a helpful mindset for this.  Maybe it ought to be, but it isn't.

[TheLeviathan]

The new CBA is such a wildcard but I really want to lean into the team that sports Jenkins, Culpepper, Keaschall and this young wave of talent.

Shop Ryan to add to that group.  Sad to see him go but it is how teams like the Twins pop through.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Plus the fact that there may be an MLB shut down in 2027, would be a consideration for any team wanting to trade for Ryan.  That fact lessens Ryan's value as far as assuming he is "under control"  in 2027.  Prospects will always be "possibilities". The Joe Ryan Experience is not a possibility, but rather the real deal for this season and in 2027. The argument that Joe "might get hurt" can apply to  every player, including the valuable prospects received for Joe in a trade.

What's his trade value next year if there is a stoppage? Even veterans are possibilities..... This is bells worst year, for example. 

[Dman]

4 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

The front office should be talking to Ryan's agent about an extension right now.  That's the biggest question the Twins have about what to do at the trade deadline.  If the extension is possible, sign him.  If they so no, then put him on the block now and create a bidding war.  If Ryan leaves, the Twins might only lose half of this season, but, in all likelihood, only about half of 2027.  If the Twins wait until the offseason, Ryan's value drops immensely.  How much would another team give up for just half a season?

@DMAN asked what would the Twins look for in a trade (and he may be completely correct, but I feel differently 😀).  He stated that in the infieldthe Twins already have Lee, Keaschall, and Lewis with Culpepper in the wings.  Lewis and Culpepper are in the minors and Lee and Keaschall might soon join them.  The Twins need improvement (defense also).  In the outfield, he says the Twins already have Buxton (injured), Larnach and Martin (decent players) and Wallner (in the minors).  The Twins could use help (the prospects are still a huge unknown).  The pitching looks to be in decent shape for 2027 and beyond.  

So, in conclusion my fellow readers, if an extension is out of the equation and if a strong offer is put on the table, I feel the Twins should take it.  And thus, the wandering thoughts of an old man who remembers Reno Bertoia at 3B opening day 1961 have come to an end.  Now I have to go yell at some kids to stay off my lawn.

I agree with most of what you said there, but would remind you of the flaw in there. Lee, Keashcal and Lewis were all top 100 prospects. Culpepper, Jenkins and Rodriguez are too.  If you trade Ryan for prospects there is no certainty said prospects work out any better than the ones you are ready to throw away right now.

So if you are trading Ryan for top 100 prospects it might not work out.  Of course you could hit on the right guy and make things work, but the odds of replacing Ryan's production even in the future is minimal.  I'm not saying it's not worth doing, as I do lean toward trading him as well.  Just that we have a lot of of past and present top 100 guys as is and it might take some time before we know who is going to work out and who isn't. I'm not convinced that adding even more of them helps in the short term at least. Thus my thought of adding guys further away from needing to be added to the 40 man.

Bradley, Abel and Rojas look like pretty good trades right now, but have a ways to go to prove it.  Gallagher, Mendez and Jimenez could be something as well, but non of them are top 100 prospects so will have to wait and see. We'll see what the Twins do come the deadline.

[NYCTK]

26 minutes ago, Dman said:

I wouldn't consider ST Louis a small market.  They are not in the revenue sharing portion of Teams.  They've had a top 15 payroll in recent years.  They wouldn't qualify in my mind.

KC put together the last really good small market team in quite a while before Teams like the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets and Yankee's have tried to buy their way there. Odds are pretty stacked against small market teams IMO.

If you're not considering St Louis a small or mid market team than you don't actually care about small or mid markets, and instead just want cheap greedy owners to be able to cry poor. 

[NYCTK]

25 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

"Should" is not a helpful mindset for this.  Maybe it ought to be, but it isn't.

Should = ought to be

I'm cool with the Twins payroll this year, because it was a rebuild year. But if they were actually trying to win, fans shouldn't be satisfied with anything less that a $195 million payroll. And anyone that cries poor on behalf of the owners is a schmuck. 

 

[farmerguychris]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

No mid market team has win the WS in over twenty years, I think. 

A realistic goal is an exciting, very good team. Imo. 

And this.....this right here is why MLB needs a cap and floor.  To have ANY team have their goal to simply be exciting is really pathetic.  The only goal for ALL pro sports teams, and the measure of success from the fans,  should be to win a championship.  

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

And this.....this right here is why MLB needs a cap and floor.  To have ANY team have their goal to simply be exciting is really pathetic.  The only goal for ALL pro sports teams, and the measure of success from the fans,  should be to win a championship.  

That's just not realistic. If you only have fun if you are the one team that wins.... You're not going to have much fun in life. IMO. Sure, try to win! But that's not realistic every year for every team.

Also, winning isn't always good for bad teams....If the stupid Vikings didn't win meaningless games a couple years ago, Drake Maye world be their QB ...

[Dman]

16 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

If you're not considering St Louis a small or mid market team than you don't actually care about small or mid markets, and instead just want cheap greedy owners to be able to cry poor. 

I'd say St Louis is Mid market but not comparable to the small market teams that get revenue sharing.  St Louis obviously pulls in more money than the bottom ten or they would be looped in with them.  Sure the Twins can spend more but they also don't make as much money as St. Louis either. 

So if the premise is only large market teams as the bar then you are correct to add St Louis but I still think there is a difference between mid and small as well and the Twins are in the small category due to revenue sharing. St Louis has been as high as top 10 in revenue and generally around 15 on average these days though it looks like this year they are lower than normal. I'd consider big market to be those teams spending 230 to 300M per year. St Louis isn't in that category.

Still if we are comparing this to what the Twins can reasonably do then I don't think it's fair to include St Louis as they are a tier above in revenue creation. So it isn't an apples to apples comparison IMO.

[NYCTK]

Just now, Dman said:

I'd say St Louis is Mid market but not comparable to the small market teams that get revenue sharing.  St Louis obviously pulls in more money than the bottom ten or they would be looped in with them. 

Well then we're not talking about market size at all.

We're talking about organizational competence. The Twin Cities aren't a small market team just because the Pohlads are terrible business people, and St Lous, a smaller market than the Twin Cites, isn't a big market because they pull in more revenue. 

[NYCTK]

27 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

And this.....this right here is why MLB needs a cap and floor.  To have ANY team have their goal to simply be exciting is really pathetic.  The only goal for ALL pro sports teams, and the measure of success from the fans,  should be to win a championship.  

Considering what he said isn't even true, no. 

[Dman]

1 minute ago, NYCTK said:

Well then we're not talking about market size at all.

We're talking about organizational competence. The Twin Cities aren't a small market team just because the Pohlads are terrible business people, and St Lous, a smaller market than the Twin Cites, isn't a big market because they pull in more revenue. 

Well it wouldn't be just the Twins that are incompetent it would be the entire bottom 10.

[TheLeviathan]

38 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Should = ought to be

I'm cool with the Twins payroll this year, because it was a rebuild year. But if they were actually trying to win, fans shouldn't be satisfied with anything less that a $195 million payroll. And anyone that cries poor on behalf of the owners is a schmuck. 

 

I'm aware, that was the point.

I'm as sick of the Pohlads as I am of lectures about what they "should" be doing.

[NYCTK]

6 minutes ago, Dman said:

Well it wouldn't be just the Twins that are incompetent it would be the entire bottom 10.

Well, the Twins are one of the few that are regularly spending significantly under what their market size would suggest is feasible. So they're pretty unique in their cheapness.