A Chance Worth Taking: The Twins Are Still in This, Somehow

[stringer bell]

It's a mixed bag for sure and that the Twins are within a couple games of the Wild Card after 50 games is a surprise. The team has had more than their share of disappointments--Wallner, Lewis, Keaschall, Bell and Caratini from the Opening Day lineup--and a fair number of key injuries in Lopez, Abel and Bradley among the starting pitchers. The bullpen is substandard, although some incremental progress has been made.

IMHO, the team that played the first 50 games isn't good enough, even in the weak American League. The question to me is whether there is talent enough to break through and improve this team enough to be a real contender. A return of Wallner or Lewis playing at a high level could give the club a real push. Having someone emerge as a legit high-leverage BP arm would help greatly.

The Twins are third in the AL and ninth in MLB in scoring runs. Over the course of a season, that is probably good enough. They are quite a ways below average in Defensive Runs Saved and they have statistically once of the poorer bullpens. I think there is hope for a more middle of the road 'pen going forward. That's a lot of ifs to spend prospect capital on. 

[karcherd]

5 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

presence of and partial reliance on the group of Abel, Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, Austin Martin, Luke Keaschall, Kaelen Culpepper, Hendry Mendez, Emmanuel Rodriguez, the resurgent Gabriel Gonzalez, Walker Jenkins, Kendry Rojas, Allen Roden

The last seven names you list they are not relying on, even when they have had a chance to bring them up.  So until they are in the big leagues and learning how to play up here I won't consider them being relied on.

[karcherd]

3 hours ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

Now that Arcia and Kriedler are up, I'd prefer to see them play short. Lee shouldn't be there. His defense is not good enough for the position and his bat definitely does not make up for it. Arcia at 3rd. Kriedler at SS. Lee at 2nd. Clemens and Keaschall at 1st. 

 

Lee is your every day shortstop, that is the decision that was made on opening day.  He has done enough to hold the position until another proven option comes along or they want to promote Culpepper.  Moving him for a utility player sends the wrong message and won't make the team better.

If you want to move Keaschall, do it in the offseason unless it is the outfield where he has at least some experience.

[Wedman13]

10 hours ago, Hunter4848 said:

I hope Tom Pohlad paid you handsomely for this propaganda puff piece. 

Just because we are a middling team in the worst division in baseball does not make them a playoff contender...

That's actually exactly what it means

[JD-TWINS]

With Abel & Festa back by All-star break - seems feasible…….. the PEN becomes reasonable ….., SWR will be a fixture there balance of the year, along with Morris.

Prielipp - Rojas - Matthews piecing together the 4th & 5th starter spots with Ryan - Ober - Bradley ……… the rotation looks good ……. spot starts for Rojas to give other rotation guys an extra day between every other start.

They have the framework of a really decent staff, including the PEN over upcoming weeks. If starters maintain the 8th spot in WAR and the PEN can move from 23rd toward 16-17, it should translate to some more Wins.

If offensive replacements for Wallner & Lewis hit .220 each it will be a shot in the arm …… pretty low bar!

[Linus]

To quote Denny Green, the Twins are who we thought they are. The only reason this topic came up is because most of the rest of the league has stunk. 
I will say it appears Zoll might be a bit more aggressive in these roster moves compared to Falvey. I’m happy he took action. 

[Hunter4848]

30 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

That's actually exactly what it means

I got some ocean front property in Arizona to sell you if you actually believe the Twins are a playoff contender...

[Hunter4848]

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Heck yeah, I would be excited if they went 80-82 and made the playoffs!

At the beginning of the season, this team was expected to win 70 games or less. They lost their SP1 for the season. Two opening day starters were bad enough to be sent to AAA. Their starting catcher could miss half the season. The bullpen is atrocious. They then get into the playoffs where anything is possible.

If they do win 80 games that means that unexpected starting pitchers are having quality seasons. It means Buxton and a slew of younger position players are also having positive seasons. Knowing that ownership sucks, they aren't spending money, and that any moves made will be minor (especially with the strike forthcoming), that doesn't get you excited?
 

This loser mentality among Twins fans is exactly why we haven't had playoff success in decades. The Pohlads love fleecing rubes like you

[Wedman13]

31 minutes ago, Hunter4848 said:

This loser mentality among Twins fans is exactly why we haven't had playoff success in decades. The Pohlads love fleecing rubes like you

Silly me for fantasizing they won a playoff series 2.5 years ago.  Man the decades fly by... I'm such a loser, unlike someone as well schooled by facts as yourself

[Hunter4848]

37 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

Silly me for fantasizing they won a playoff series 2.5 years ago.  Man the decades fly by... I'm such a loser, unlike someone as well schooled by facts as yourself

Wow! One playoff series win in decades! What an excellent franchise!!

The fact you think one series win is playoff success is proving my point. Talk about loser mentality...

[jkcarew]

Fans/bloggers/media embracing a team that almost annually “competes” in this context are the exact reason why the organization never improves. They don’t need to. They rely on the ridiculously low bar that exists in Twins Territory to obfuscate from the absolute and perennial meaningless this organization holds across the MLB landscape.

Enjoy the games…it’s baseball. Such that it is, they’re overachieving. But don’t pretend this is a competitive club for anything meaningful. Don’t pretend that they’re close. They aren’t. It’s another year of exhibition games, made notable only by the possibility of the debut of a number of the next generation.

[stringer bell]

I'd add to the evaluation that Lee had a similar run of competence eleven months ago and he really hasn't been very good except for the month of June in 2025 and his five week run this spring. He hasn't hit much the last week or so. Martin has regressed the last 20 at-bats. Batters ebb and flow every year. It is hard to stay patient until they are fully established and maybe after they are established (See Buxton, Byron). 

The Twins have precious few players who can absolutely be counted on. That is IMHO why it is hard to count on them being a good team until they actually show it on the field.

[Colbeh]

6 hours ago, Hunter4848 said:

You're the one attempting to spin mediocrity as a positive...

I personally wouldn't consider being mediocre in the worst division in baseball a positive. 

And yes, I would enjoy the Twins much more if they had a chance to compete for a World Series. But i get it the Pohlads have gotten you so used to right sizing the payroll that you'll cheer for whatever collection of players they put on the field

 

**Second worst division

It is nice to try to find some positives after years of anguish and be hopeful for what is being built for 27-28. Complaining solves nothing and spreads like wild fire

[Wedman13]

54 minutes ago, Hunter4848 said:

Wow! One playoff series win in decades! What an excellent franchise!!

The fact you think one series win is playoff success is proving my point. Talk about loser mentality...

So now the goal posts move, got it.  Figured that response was next.  Fairly predictable, heck, even 'mediocre'.  Enjoy the season!, I will.

[gil4]

13 hours ago, Hunter4848 said:

Just because we are a middling team in the worst division in baseball does not make them a playoff contender...

I thought we already settled that we are a middling team in the second-worst division in baseball.  Big difference.

[gil4]

1 hour ago, Hunter4848 said:

Wow! One playoff series win in decades! What an excellent franchise!!

The fact you think one series win is playoff success is proving my point. Talk about loser mentality...

There was a lot of playoff frustration that led up to that, and some pretty good teams that couldn't even get that done. 

But what happened after that series win was tough to forgive.  Instead of building on the momentum and a pretty good foundation, they decided to try to increase profits by cutting expenses rather than increasing revenue.  Any good will they had built that October was gone (and then some) by the end of December.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm going to need some help.  This article exists and appears to be earnestly arguing that we are "in contention".  So question 1:  I'm looking at the right year...correct?  This team that's 4 under .500 in a terrible division who has managed the super high bar of "not mathematically out on.....May 21st (WTF?)" ....we're talking about this team here right?

 

Question 2: Contender?

[knothole61]

16 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Cleveland always surprises me. I'm not sure how they win as much as they do. But, alas, they've gained some separation. While I expect them to regress a little bit, along with the White Sox, I think Detroit will eventually right the ship just enough to make a run. The Twins could hang around in the AL Central for another few weeks, but it will be a tall task with this line up. Who would have thought the bullpen wouldn't be the main problem right now?!

There's always the path to the wildcard - that usually stays a jumbled mess well into September - but even with that, I think Seattle and Toronto will go on extended runs as they get healthy.

If being 'in it' was really a priority, the Twins would have approached the previous off-season much differently than they did. The only questions for me - when do they trade Ryan and Jeffers - and if / when do we see Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper, Mendez, etc..

NJ, yes, the Twins will stay "in it" at least for a wild card spot if they can hover around .500 for the season, and I certainly think that 85 wins will do the trick. That goal is not impossible for a team that, despite the injuries, seems to be finding some answers as the season progresses including, dare I say it, some hope for the bullpen. Regarding Cleveland: they almost always seem to excel even with injuries and roster losses due to a certain intensity and tenacity, I think. Or maybe it's witchcraft, or the amazing Jose Ramirez (which may be the same thing!) whose superhuman intensity is painted on his face. We took them 2 out of 3 in Cleveland, but they are on a run now and we must stay as close as possible until they cool off a bit, which of course they will.   

[knothole61]

5 hours ago, Hunter4848 said:

This loser mentality among Twins fans is exactly why we haven't had playoff success in decades. The Pohlads love fleecing rubes like you

 

2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I'm going to need some help.  This article exists and appears to be earnestly arguing that we are "in contention".  So question 1:  I'm looking at the right year...correct?  This team that's 4 under .500 in a terrible division who has managed the super high bar of "not mathematically out on.....May 21st (WTF?)" ....we're talking about this team here right?

 

Question 2: Contender?

If we stay near .500 there should be a chance for a wild card run. Not a contender for a World Series title, of course, but for the playoffs. Maybe the Twins winning 80ish games seems far fetched to you, but it's certainly not impossible, and doing so makes them a "contender" for the playoffs. I'm "sure about that."

[Hunter4848]

7 hours ago, Wedman13 said:

So now the goal posts move, got it.  Figured that response was next.  Fairly predictable, heck, even 'mediocre'.  Enjoy the season!, I will.

The goal posts havent moved, your bar for playoff success is just incredibly low.

[Hunter4848]

8 hours ago, Colbeh said:

**Second worst division

It is nice to try to find some positives after years of anguish and be hopeful for what is being built for 27-28. Complaining solves nothing and spreads like wild fire

Definitely the still the worst division. Complaining serves to hold ownership and the team to a higher standard. Fans like you are why the Pohlads are happy to right size the business instead of putting out a winning product.

[Wedman13]

57 minutes ago, Hunter4848 said:

The goal posts havent moved, your bar for playoff success is just incredibly low.

It's not unfair to say the bar is provably low for many, and maybe too high for others..  sure, lightning in a bottle can happen (Tampa seems to catch it well) but otherwise, if I were King, divisions  would split from geography to payroll based - if no cap.  It kinda works out that way in the AL Central and therefore you are right in saying the Twins have no excuse to not compete in this division..  that is why personally, I'm so disappointed in Royce and MW, and Pablo's injury. The margin for error is so low for many of these teams.

[Hunter4848]

22 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

It's not unfair to say the bar is provably low for many, and maybe too high for others..  sure, lightning in a bottle can happen (Tampa seems to catch it well) but otherwise, if I were King, divisions  would split from geography to payroll based - if no cap.  It kinda works out that way in the AL Central and therefore you are right in saying the Twins have no excuse to not compete in this division..  that is why personally, I'm so disappointed in Royce and MW, and Pablo's injury. The margin for error is so low for many of these teams.

In the Twins division the margin for error is quite high, all you have to be is an average team and you will win the division easily 

[NYCTK]

10 hours ago, Hunter4848 said:

Wow! One playoff series win in decades! What an excellent franchise!!

The fact you think one series win is playoff success is proving my point. Talk about loser mentality...

This is more true than people here want to admit. The twenty years without a single playoff win was rough, but winning a 3 game home series isn't some true accomplishment just because it happened in October instead of August.

It was nice to see, and it was fun, and no one should be celebrating it. 

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

20 hours ago, Nshore said:

If Lewis or Wallner had shown even the slightest bit of baseball competence the picture would look much better.

Absolutely. Those two players combined to put a serious black hole in the lineup. If they had both performed to expectations, we might at least have a few more wins this season. At this point, I'm content to watch and see how some of the prospects and waiver claims perform, I don't expect any post-season play at this point, but following the team is still enjoyable. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

13 hours ago, Hunter4848 said:

This loser mentality among Twins fans is exactly why we haven't had playoff success in decades. The Pohlads love fleecing rubes like you

When you have nothing better to say, make the attacks personal.

[Woof Bronzer]

22 minutes ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

When you have nothing better to say, make the attacks personal.

I for one am glad the guy who calls himself Fire Dan Gladden is above personal attacks!  

[USAFChief]

Still pretty confident the Twins are a strong contender to win me $94 on my $100 "under 74.5" bet.

 

[Wedman13]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

This is more true than people here want to admit. The twenty years without a single playoff win was rough, but winning a 3 game home series isn't some true accomplishment just because it happened in October instead of August.

It was nice to see, and it was fun, and no one should be celebrating it. 

No one was celebrating, simply correcting an inaccurate post.

[NYCTK]

2 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

No one was celebrating, simply correcting an inaccurate post.

Au contraire. I've heard so much about the great success of the 2023 season that you'd think we appeared in the ALCS. It was a temporary step in the right direction that was quickly, unfortunately back-tracked.