Can Luke Keaschall Break Out of His Sophomore Slump?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

Expectations can be tricky in baseball. One year, a player bursts onto the scene and looks like a foundational piece. The next, the league adjusts, and suddenly, nothing comes easily. That’s what Luke Keaschall faces early in his sophomore season with the Twins.

After an impressive rookie season where he slashed .302/.382/.445, Keaschall's sophomore start hasn’t been as smooth. Through Sunday, he is hitting just .209/.258/.279. On Saturday, manager Derek Shelton moved him down in the lineup for the first time this season, shifting him from third to fifth. On Sunday, with right-handed hurler Brady Singer on the mound for the opposing Reds, he slid to sixth.

That move tells part of the story. Shelton began the season with confidence in Keaschall as a table-setter near the top of the order. The adjustment now signals a need to reset and a chance to take pressure off a young hitter still finding his footing at the big league level.

Friday’s game against the Reds might have been the epitome of his struggles. Keaschall batted with the bases loaded in the third inning, two runners on base in the fifth inning, and two more runners in the seventh. None of those runners scored. In those three at-bats, Keaschall struck out on a called third strike, grounded into his first double play of the season, and hit an inning-ending groundout. After the game, he gathered with the team’s hitting coaches to break down his swing and his at-bats.

“We’ll get it back,” said Keaschall after the game. “We’re a tick off. It can change quickly. That’s what I keep on thinking, and it’s going to happen soon.”

That belief is shared inside the clubhouse as well.

“Luke Keaschall has hit at every level. I mean, I can’t go back to his Little League stats, but I guarantee he raked there,” Shelton said. “It’s early in the season, and it’s also the first year he’s started the year in the big leagues. A lot of guys put more emphasis on that.”

There’s a mental side to this as much as a physical one. Shelton acknowledged that moving Keaschall down in the lineup was designed to ease the burden, as Shelton felt Keaschall was putting “a little extra on himself.” As Keaschall looks for answers, he said his focus is on getting the most out of each day.

“I think it’s just being in control of your movements and executing plans,” Keaschall said. “Right now, we’re not doing that the best. All you can do is get a little bit better each and every day.”

The underlying numbers explain why the results haven’t been as strong. His 85.0 mph exit velocity and 24% Hard Hit rate both sit in the bottom 7% of the league. His exit velocity is down 1.2 mph compared to last season, and his hard-hit rate has dropped by 6.6%. That lack of authoritative contact has limited his ability to cause damage, even when he puts the ball in play.

Pitchers have also adjusted their approach. He is seeing fewer fastballs, down 4% from last season, and he hasn't punished them when he gets them, posting just a .302 slugging average despite an xSLG that sits more than 100 points higher. That gap suggests there may be some bad luck involved, but it also highlights missed opportunities.

Instead of fastballs, Keaschall is seeing a heavier dose of offspeed pitches. Last season, he torched those offerings to the tune of a .407 average and a .556 slugging, though the expected numbers hinted at regression. That regression has come quickly. This year, he is hitting just .211 against offspeed pitches and has yet to record an extra-base hit against them.

Still, this is not a profile completely devoid of optimism. Keaschall continues to show strong plate discipline. His chase rate, per-swing whiff rate, and strikeout rate all rank in the 82nd percentile or better, and his 27.2% Squared-Up rate sits comfortably above league average, meaning he's getting his fair share of exit velocity from below-average bat speed. Those are indicators of a hitter who is not overmatched, but rather one who is just missing his best contact by a small margin.

Sometimes, that margin is everything. Moving down in the lineup could give Keaschall space to recalibrate. Rather than setting the tone early, he can focus on simple at-bats and build momentum one swing at a time.

For a Twins team that has leaned on young talent to exceed expectations, getting Keaschall back on track is an important piece of the puzzle. The foundation is still there. The approach remains sound. Now, it's about turning those underlying positives into production. If history is any indication, that turnaround may not be far away.

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What are your thoughts on Keaschall's sophomore performance? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Trov]

This happens to every guy that comes up and rakes to start, outside a very few.  They come up, get a heavy does of fastballs by pitchers, they crush them, so then pitchers start throwing the off speed stuff to see if the kids adjust.  Eventually they do.  However, so often it gets in their head.  They think they will never get a good fastball to hit again and start guessing up at the plate.  They swing at any off speed pitch in the zone thinking it will be the only pitch in the zone.  They chase fastballs out of the zone thinking it is the only fastball they get.  They get in their head. 

Now he needs to figure out how he is being pitched to, and adjust. The film room is where he needs to start.  The book is out on him now, he needs to rewrite it.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

This happens to every guy that comes up and rakes to start, outside a very few.  They come up, get a heavy does of fastballs by pitchers, they crush them, so then pitchers start throwing the off speed stuff to see if the kids adjust.  Eventually they do.  However, so often it gets in their head.  They think they will never get a good fastball to hit again and start guessing up at the plate.  They swing at any off speed pitch in the zone thinking it will be the only pitch in the zone.  They chase fastballs out of the zone thinking it is the only fastball they get.  They get in their head. 

Now he needs to figure out how he is being pitched to, and adjust. The film room is where he needs to start.  The book is out on him now, he needs to rewrite it.

Gotta believe that the fan base is hopeful but feeling burned by too many Kirilloff and Lee and Royce stories, so pardon our skeptical nature. The defense is sputtering too.. could an OF shift (or DH) help Luke focus on hitting.. 

[bean5302]

RNG Jesus giveth, RNG Jesus taketh away.

Keaschall's xwOBA last year suggested he should have been about a league average hitter with xwOBA 39pts lower than actual. His expected performance last year also makes sense given his actual performance in AAA last year and AA the year prior. He's still inexperienced and the numbers will trend back up as he looks like he's now unlucky by 43pts of xwOBA.

If we're talking about hard hit and barrel rates, Keaschall's right in line with the same percentages of MLB hitter as last year right now.

2025

2026

Keaschall is going to need to adapt. To become the kind of hitter people around here seem to think he can be, he'll need to make a lot of improvement at the plate, but it's very early yet this year. I don't consider a sample size under 200 to be very valuable.

[Hunter4848]

If the Twins recent history is an indication of the future then he will be lucky to break put of his slump...

[Patzky]

6 minutes ago, Hunter4848 said:

If the Twins recent history is an indication of the future then he will be lucky to break put of his slump...

The big moments keep finding him.. the batting order doesn't care about slumps. Seven LOB. Goodness. At least he has had a few successful moments in the last week. (So has James Outman.)

 

[D.C Twins]

He'll be fine... 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Hunter4848 said:

If the Twins recent history is an indication of the future then he will be lucky to break put of his slump...

I hope you're very very wrong. 

He's a talented kid and the speed should help him steal an extra hit or 3 while he's figuring it out at least. And he's not doing a terrible job at taking walks when they come to him at least?

But he's definitely in a significant slump and had some rough ABs in that last series.

[mikelink45]

I'm still rooting for him and I think his attitude will get them through. We saw the start with Royce Lewis and how he banged all those home runs when he first came up and then set he doesn't slump which of course he has been in ever since. You seem this happened regularly to many young matters. Somehow I think he has the attitude that will allow him to escape and be a dependable player for us again. 

[jkcarew]

Part of the process (I think and hope). Based on his athletic pedigree (elite wrestler), he isn’t going to fail from lack of effort, work, or discipline.

Keep writing his name in the lineup. Use a pen.

[tony&rodney]

Pop ups four times before a ground ball out his last time up in yesterday's game. Keaschall is fighting it all over. Baseball is so tough. Sure hope he doesn't get Juliened.

[RpR]

He had a good bat and a barely adequate glove; now his bat is just plain bad and his glove is heading towards Julien's world.

The announcer said yesterday, he changed some things in Spring Training -  change them back.

[Hunter4848]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I hope you're very very wrong. 

He's a talented kid and the speed should help him steal an extra hit or 3 while he's figuring it out at least. And he's not doing a terrible job at taking walks when they come to him at least?

But he's definitely in a significant slump and had some rough ABs in that last series.

I hope I am wrong, but the Twins certainly don't inspire much confidence