Sneaky Heat: Garrett Acton and the Twins' Wide-Open Bullpen Picture

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

 

It looks pretty innocuous. Garrett Acton isn't notably big or small. He doesn't have a funky arm angle or a complicated delivery. He just kicks and delivers, and it's not like his fastball hums in at 100 miles per hour. On the contrary, in his two appearances with the Twins so far this season, he's averaging just 94 MPH with the fastball. He's only thrown fastballs and sliders, so far. It's not an elaborate or an overwhelming operation.

That's probably why Acton has always been below the prospect radar. He was a 35th-round pick by the White Sox in 2016, coming out of a high school in Chicago's southwest suburbs. Instead of signing, though, he went to junior college at Parkland College in Champaign, Ill. From there, he moved on to Saint Louis University and the University of Illinois-Champaign, but he went undrafted in 2019, and again in the COVID-shortened 2020 event. He signed as an amateur free agent, with the Athletics.

He stuck with the Oakland organization for almost three years, even making a brief debut in 2023, but he then became a 40-man roster casualty. He wasn't claimed on waivers at the time, and didn't find a new home until signing with the Rays that December. He underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2024. Last year, he pitched just well enough at Triple-A Durham to earn one appearance with a forgettable Rays team. He didn't morph into a relief ace, or anything.

Somewhere in there, though, he became an in-demand asset. The Rockies claimed him on waivers in November, and the Marlins plucked him from Colorado the same way in early February. If you're hearing the words 'Rockies', 'Marlins' and 'waivers' and thinking this guy doesn't sound all that in-demand, you're not entirely wrong, but remember: waiver priority is determined by team quality. He did end up on the waiver wire repeatedly, even though he was passing through the hands of some bad teams, but then again, he got claimed by bad teams who had good spots in the line for such players.

The Twins became the third team to scoop him up, this time via a trade, at the beginning of this month. It was a minor move, for a minor arm, but it could end up making a more significant impact than you'd guess. There's a reason why Acton has become a buzzier name lately: his stuff is sneakily good.

In the image above, the distributions on the left show that all four pitches Acton throws (though he hasn't yet shown his splitter or curveball in the bigs) are above-average. His fastball-slider combination, in particular, rates well on Baseball Prospectus's StuffPro model. Why? Look at how high that heater rides, on the right. It sets up the tight slider gorgeously, and vice-versa.

Again, Acton's delivery is unremarkable—but that's to his advantage. The way the ball spins and carries out of his hand is unexpected, to the batter. Taj Bradley (to choose a familiar name, especially at the moment) gets lots of carry on his heater, but he does it with a very high arm slot, so hitters expect a bit more of that movement. When a pitcher's vertical movement doesn't quite match their slot, though, it creates more deception.

Stereotypically, fastballs with that extra vertical hop achieve swings and misses at the top of the zone, as in the pitch above. It's less obvious, but this extra carry also helps at the bottom of the zone, when a pitcher locates and sequences well. It can earn you called strikes, because a hitter expects the pitch to dip low, only to see it hold on for a strike on what should have been a hittable pitch.

For those reasons, this is a trait the Twins hunt. Bradley's rising heater appealed to them, but so do pitches with much less raw movement, like the heaters of Mick Abel, Bailey Ober and Eric Orze. Plot pitchers by arm angle and vertical movement, and you can see how unusual the movement some of those hurlers achieve really is, based on how they throw.

Unlike Ober, Orze or Abel, though, Acton's fastball does something else: cut more than expected based on the arm angle, too. That cut-ride action is a shape the Twins like, and a very rare one. Most pitchers whose arm slots are low enough to allow for unexpected vertical ride have a hard time achieving that while still getting around or behind the ball enough to give it relative cut. Not Acton. In this chart, the lower a pitcher's point appears, the less arm-side movement their heater has.

That characteristic is especially valuable for setting up the slider. Because the batter will struggle to distinguish the two pitches from one another out of the hand, he can miss bats with the slider even when he misses his spot with it—but it's especially devastating when well-located, moving out of the same tunnel as the fastball.

This is plus stuff. Acton didn't suddenly show up with it this spring, either. In his longish career in Triple-A, he struck out over 28% of opposing batters. The reason it's taken him until age 27 to find any lasting foothold in the big leagues is exactly the one you'd guess, given everything we've discussed so far: he struggles to throw strikes. Acton has walked roughly 10% of the batters he's seen in Triple-A. That humming fastball often rises above the zone, and his command of the slider isn't great. To be a useful big-league reliever, he has to find the zone more consistently.

He might be en route to making that crucial adjustment, though. Last year, he had a bit more of a high front side, slightly increasing deception but taking some stability out of his delivery.

This season, he's quieted that down. A simpler delivery might beget just enough more control to allow Acton to turn the corner and establish himself as a good reliever—and if he does, for this Twins team, he'll simultaneously establish himself as a solid setup man, or more. He's one of the highest-upside arms in a bullpen with a lot of journeymen but few who still have his ability to generate whiffs.

Acton has minor-league options remaining, so he doesn't have to depart the organization if the team needs his roster spot. He might have to ride the Green Line a time or two this year, but he's showing enough to make it relatively likely that he sticks with the Twins organization for a while. He might even emerge as an important cog in a pen the team will count on to keep them from collapsing into non-competitiveness as the season wears on.

 

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[Patzky]

Get to know 'em!

I'm just hoping for competency from the pen. Fundy, Orze, Sands, Rogers, Topa.. not consistent but can occasionally give us the smooth inning.. Banda, predictably unstable. It seems like so far the two new additions (Acton and Morris), and also Lawyerson, have been ok and don't hurt themselves.  I see Travis Adams is beginning a regimen at Fort Myers.. he's from the Genesis Cabrera school of control and while he might replace Banda, he terrifies me in a tight game. Zebby also seems to have lost it this year in St Paul as has Altavilla. Some folks are jumping the gun and suggesting flipping the roles of Sim and Morris.. works in progress.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Fascinating article. Thanks Matthew.

[bunsen82]

We have some competent arms.  Something we didn't have in the bullpen at the end of the season last year.  Its amazing how much of a difference that makes.  Even still,  there are still some question marks.  Banda is as of yet is not looking like he was worth the international money.   Orze has been quite the find so far.  I thought there would be some decent AAAA pitchers in AAA but so far they have really struggled so far this year.  Other than some players getting healthy like and Adams, Festa, Laweryson . . . this appears to be the group for now.   

[mikelink45]

I will join the Banda wagon and say he is perfect for a DFA.  Are we waiting for Adams?

[mike8791]

Matt, nice analysis!  But to me these articles are just grasping at straws.  I like evaluating relievers at least partly by WHIP.   Here are the stats so far: Banda1.62. Funderburk1.7. Rogers1.64, Orza1.43, Sands1.58, Topa 1.62, Morris(in only 3IP) - 2.0.  Granted these are small sample sizes but WHIPs that high are indicative of tough times, especially in late inning, tight ballgames - which we have not had yet.

I am thrilled with the Twins surprising start.  The offense has far exceeded expectations, at least 3 starters look solid, and the team has slowly gained confidence in themselves.  But realistically this bullpen is still the major achilles heel - one that will eventually drag this team down.  Perhaps Lawyerson and Acton will develop into trustworthy arms and there is certainly some chance that at least one of Sands/Topa/Morris might also, but this current pen is woefully short of talent.

Zoll should be on the phone now trying to pry at least one proven pen arm who has a better chance of succeeding in late inning, tight games.  We have a major surplus of OFs, at least one of whom should land a decent arm.  And TP must open his wallet to acquire someone like Kopech who is risky but more likely to be an improvement over the current lot.  If ownership is truly committed to winning, now is the time to show fans and the players they are serious and augment the roster with badly needed help.

[Kenny Powers]

I literally made a post about Acton on this site yesterday.  His fastball was actually hitting 95 mph pretty consistently in his last outing per the game log stats.

They might filter through a dozen bullpen guys this year.  I like his chances as good as anyone else at this point.  The high K-Rate in the minors makes me hopeful he can carry that over.  Regardless, as I wrote in my post yesterday, this was a sneaky good depth signing (that cost them nothing).

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I was thinking of posting something like this yesterday. No, really. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

30 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Matt, nice analysis!  But to me these articles are just grasping at straws.  I like evaluating relievers at least partly by WHIP.   Here are the stats so far: Banda1.62. Funderburk1.7. Rogers1.64, Orza1.43, Sands1.58, Topa 1.62, Morris(in only 3IP) - 2.0.  Granted these are small sample sizes but WHIPs that high are indicative of tough times, especially in late inning, tight ballgames - which we have not had yet.

I am thrilled with the Twins surprising start.  The offense has far exceeded expectations, at least 3 starters look solid, and the team has slowly gained confidence in themselves.  But realistically this bullpen is still the major achilles heel - one that will eventually drag this team down.  Perhaps Lawyerson and Acton will develop into trustworthy arms and there is certainly some chance that at least one of Sands/Topa/Morris might also, but this current pen is woefully short of talent.

Zoll should be on the phone now trying to pry at least one proven pen arm who has a better chance of succeeding in late inning, tight games.  We have a major surplus of OFs, at least one of whom should land a decent arm.  And TP must open his wallet to acquire someone like Kopech who is risky but more likely to be an improvement over the current lot.  If ownership is truly committed to winning, now is the time to show fans and the players they are serious and augment the roster with badly needed help.

I agree. We will really need at least 2-3 more bullpen arms this season, at least one of whom can close games, if only to cover for injuries and ineffectiveness (Banda). More likely we'll need 4-5. I'm not seeing a lot in St. Paul unless we plan on transitioning AA or AAA starters to relievers - Klein, Matthews, Prielipp, Culpepper - except maybe retreads like Brebbia, Bowman, and Smith. Are there any guys in AA that we could move up to the MLB BP, even if they are starters there? If not, we are going to need to trade for some bullpen help. 

Kopech is still available but has expressed a desire to return to a starting role, and is projected to get $13-20m on a 2 year deal. That's a big financial risk given his injury history and he may just be waiting for a contending team to need a starter before he comes back any way. I don't think he's going to be the answer. We need to be working the phones for relief help.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

BTW, fixing this bullpen is not going to be easy looking at what other teams are claiming, bringing up, and signing. Just in the last couple of days teams are picking or binging up such familiar retreads as Richard Lovelady (Nats). Ian Hamilton (Braves, who DFA'd Osvaldo Brito), Martin Perez (Braves), and Cal Quantrill (Rangers). It's ugly out there. 

Maybe it's time to convert a couple of AA starters to relief, specifically Klein and Matthews. Both are pretty high octane, Klein only for short stints (read reliever), and both are struggling as starters. There are some starters performing in AA who could come up and take their place. The Twins are going to need relievers so let's get some created. 

[nicksaviking]

9 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Maybe it's time to convert a couple of AA starters to relief, specifically Klein and Matthews. Both are pretty high octane, Klein only for short stints (read reliever), and both are struggling as starters. There are some starters performing in AA who could come up and take their place. The Twins are going to need relievers so let's get some created. 

Putting Klein back in the rotation was baffling. And Matthews should switch now too. He probably won't get that starter-turned-velocity boost this year, but put him in the MLB pen right now and condition him to be a late inning guy for next season.

[DarrenPS]

You hear announcers describe how easy it looks for some guys to throw hard. Ever since we got Acton I can't help but think how difficult it looks for him to hit 94. Still liked the article, lets see what the Twins can do with him. Kind of worried he will struggle to put away lefties with just a FA&SL but what do I know

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Putting Klein back in the rotation was baffling. And Matthews should switch now too. He probably won't get that starter-turned-velocity boost this year, but put him in the MLB pen right now and condition him to be a late inning guy for next season.

Who is backing up the MLB rotation after we move all the starters to the bullpen? Ober and SWR are rocking those eyesore ERAs as it is, and we're definitely going to need 10 starts from somebody who is not currently in the rotation even if we're willing to live with non-competitive performances from 2 of the 5 rotation arms.

Rojas and Prielipp? After that, there's nothing in St. Paul I'd consider potentially MLB worthy.

[nicksaviking]

22 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Who is backing up the MLB rotation after we move all the starters to the bullpen? Ober and SWR are rocking those eyesore ERAs as it is, and we're definitely going to need 10 starts from somebody who is not currently in the rotation even if we're willing to live with non-competitive performances from 2 of the 5 rotation arms.

Rojas and Prielipp? After that, there's nothing in St. Paul I'd consider potentially MLB worthy.

Right, so if we're getting non-competitive performances from two of the five rotation arms, who cares if it comes from Matthews or claiming Martin Perez off of waivers?

This team stressing about having rotation depth is crazy if the depth isn't any better, or even worse, than the off the rack pitchers available to every team. If Matthews can now or later be an asset in the pen but a liability in the rotation, it's a no-brainer.  

[karcherd]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Putting Klein back in the rotation was baffling.

Is Klein really in the rotation, I thought I read they were putting him in that 4 inning role that they have fallen in love with.  So do they consider him a starter or reliever.

[nicksaviking]

28 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Is Klein really in the rotation, I thought I read they were putting him in that 4 inning role that they have fallen in love with.  So do they consider him a starter or reliever.

Seems to me the Twins need late game power arms to replace all the ones they traded away last year. Mop-up duty and swing-men are typically only around to get you to the next game, not to actually win games.

[The Great Hambino]

BBRef has a measure called game leverage index (gmLI) for all relievers.  This measures how high or low the game leverage is relative to league average when a reliever enters the game - a lower number means lower leverage.  So far the Twins are currently dead last in the AL in this figure, which means the bullpen hasn't really been put under too much stress.  This tracks as they've only had one one-run game and one extra-inning game (they lost both of those games).  

So unless the Twins can continue to bludgeon teams offensively (only the Astros have scored more runs in the AL), the bullpen is going to have to step up in these high leverage situations in order to maintain their success.  The sooner they can transition some potential high leverage weapons to the pen, the better

[tarheeltwinsfan]

5 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I will join the Banda wagon and say he is perfect for a DFA.  Are we waiting for Adams?

That was a really clever link, Mikelink.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Right, so if we're getting non-competitive performances from two of the five rotation arms, who cares if it comes from Matthews or claiming Martin Perez off of waivers?

This team stressing about having rotation depth is crazy if the depth isn't any better, or even worse, than the off the rack pitchers available to every team. If Matthews can now or later be an asset in the pen but a liability in the rotation, it's a no-brainer.  

Matthews is showing a wild deviation from his pitch selection, and he's falling behind hitters a ton in AAA this year. He's only throwing his fastball 26% of the time with a paltry 54% first pitch strike rate. While the article talks about his velo being down from last year... it's actually up a tick from 2024.

Some concerns, sure, but 1-0 vs 0-1 makes a huge impact on a pitcher. Liriano in 2010 owned a 62% first pitch strike rate. ERA 3.62, FIP 2.66. In 2012, he had a 53% first pitch strike rate. ERA 5.34, FIP 4.34. In 2013, he was back up to 58% and had a 3.02 ERA, 2.92 FIP.

I'm not willing to say Matthews is cooked as a starter. Moving him to the pen feels like a knee jerk reaction, and risky strategy when the Twins don't have good injury replacement depth right now. Guy was in Cedar Rapids less than 2 years ago.

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Matthews is showing a wild deviation from his pitch selection, and he's falling behind hitters a ton in AAA this year. He's only throwing his fastball 26% of the time with a paltry 54% first pitch strike rate. While the article talks about his velo being down from last year... it's actually up a tick from 2024.

Some concerns, sure, but 1-0 vs 0-1 makes a huge impact on a pitcher. Liriano in 2010 owned a 62% first pitch strike rate. ERA 3.62, FIP 2.66. In 2012, he had a 53% first pitch strike rate. ERA 5.34, FIP 4.34. In 2013, he was back up to 58% and had a 3.02 ERA, 2.92 FIP.

I'm not willing to say Matthews is cooked as a starter. Moving him to the pen feels like a knee jerk reaction, and risky strategy when the Twins don't have good injury replacement depth right now. Guy was in Cedar Rapids less than 2 years ago.

I get that others want to give it more time, but it's not knee-jerk, I've been advocating for it all winter. 

Obviously preferred Option A is front of the rotation starter, but those odds are looking long. Option B that being a high leverage reliever are very high. Give me more years of that. I think people are still seeing the gulf between starters and relievers from a 1980-90's perspective. It's just not the case any longer. A shut down reliever is a better player than a back of the rotation starter, AND it's smore likely to happen. And more valuable too. 

The Twins JUST traded their last versions of Zebby Matthews for Taj Bradley, Mick Abel and Kendry Rojas. All three of whom I'd rather have in the rotation than Matthews at this point.