Dodging the Curveball of Commitment

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

Over the past few weeks, the conversation around the Minnesota Twins has drifted toward the future and who might be locked into it. Names like Walker Jenkins continue to surface, despite the fact that he has yet to make his big-league debut. Other teams around the league are locking up players of a similar caliber, and it’s fun to dream about the future.

Twins ownership also seems to be open to extensions with other young players. During a recent media session, Tom Pohlad pointed to a trio of intriguing talents in Luke Keaschall, Taj Bradley, and Mick Abel as players the organization could consider approaching about long-term deals.

On paper, those are the types of players teams try to secure early: young, controllable, and brimming with upside. It is a strategy that has worked across the league, buying out arbitration years and (sometimes) a slice of free agency at a discounted rate. But it's also a strategy that can backfire.

As easy as it is to identify the next extension candidate, it's just as important to remember the players who once looked like obvious choices themselves. In recent seasons, the Twins have had multiple opportunities to make those bets and, whether by design or circumstance, they may have avoided some costly mistakes.

Royce Lewis
Stock High Point: 2023 Season
Few players have embodied both the promise and volatility of a top prospect like Royce Lewis. As the first overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, he represented the future of the franchise from the moment his name was called. That future appeared to arrive in full during the 2023 season.

Lewis was electric, posting a 149 OPS+ across 58 games while providing a spark the Twins desperately needed. His impact extended into October, where he delivered two massive home runs against the Toronto Blue Jays, helping secure the franchise’s first playoff series victory in two decades. In that moment, an extension would have felt not only reasonable, but necessary.

Since then, the picture has shifted. Lewis has struggled to recapture that level of production, posting a 95 OPS+ while continuing to search for consistency defensively at third base. Injuries have remained part of the equation, and the once-clear trajectory toward superstardom now feels far less certain. With two years of team control remaining, the Twins still have flexibility—something that would not be the case had they acted at his peak.

Jose Miranda
Stock High Point: 2022 Season
The rise of Jose Miranda felt like one of the more stable bets in recent Twins history. After a dominant 2021 minor league campaign that included a .973 OPS and 30 home runs across Double- and Triple-A, Miranda carried that success into his rookie season.

In 2022, he posted a 114 OPS+ with 15 homers and 25 doubles over 125 games, showcasing elite bat-to-ball skills that suggested a long runway as a productive big league hitter. This was exactly the type of profile teams often look to extend early, prioritizing contact ability and offensive consistency.

Instead, his trajectory became anything but steady. A 55 OPS+ in 2023 was followed by a rebound to 112 OPS+ in 2024, but the inconsistency ultimately defined his tenure. By 2025, he was out of the organization entirely. Now in the San Diego system, Miranda is trying to regain his footing at Triple-A, far removed from the player who once looked like a lineup fixture for years to come.

Brooks Lee
Stock High Point: 2024 Season
The Brooks Lee case might be the most instructive for pre-debut or early-career extensions. Like Jenkins today, Lee entered his first full professional season with significant hype. The eighth overall pick in 2022, he was widely viewed as one of the safest hitters in his draft class.

By 2023, he had posted an .808 OPS in the upper minors and climbed to No. 18 on MLB Pipeline’s top 100 list. It would have been easy to envision a deal that bought out his arbitration years while giving the Twins option control over his early free-agency seasons.

That version of Lee has yet to appear consistently in the majors. Through his first 197 games, he owns a 74 OPS+ and has struggled to provide value defensively. At 25 years old, there is still time for adjustments, but the gap between expectation and production has been significant. An early extension here could have quickly become an anchor.

The Value of Patience
Extensions can sound great when viewed through the rose-colored glasses of a player’s best moments at the big-league level. The temptation is to lock in that version of the player before the price climbs any higher. But baseball has a way of humbling even the most promising trajectories.

Opponents adjust. Weaknesses are exposed. Performance ebbs and flows in ways that are often impossible to predict. By holding back on extensions for players like Lewis, Miranda, and Lee at their respective peaks, the Twins may have preserved both payroll flexibility and roster optionality.

That does not mean the strategy should be to avoid extensions altogether. It simply underscores the importance of timing and conviction. Betting on talent is part of the game, but so is recognizing when uncertainty outweighs the perceived discount.

In a league where one contract can shape a roster for years, sometimes the smartest move is the one not made.

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What other players would have been extension candidates early in their careers? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Parfigliano]

That 9yr/$140mil Konnor Griffin deal PIT just did is going to age like milk in a sauna.

[Linus]

Unless you are getting some free agent years I don’t think these deals are right for the Twins. The cost certainty is nice but IMO not worth the risk the player gets hurt or doesn’t perform. If these deals go bad it hurts the Twins relatively more because of the tighter payroll. 

[tony&rodney]

36 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

That 9yr/$140mil Konnor Griffin deal PIT just did is going to age like milk in a sauna.

Why do you say that. Did you see something amiss? Naturally, the  final results are a decade away.

Having seen him play a fair amount last season and this young campaign, Griffin looks like the real deal. He is really good with the glove and has a big arm. Check. He has a strong sense of the strike zone for a 19 year old and has reasonably balanced K/BB. Check. He is Buxton fast. Check. The power is easy. Check. He improved hit hit tool at every stop last season. Check. Seems like Konnor Griffin is a player that any team can build around in 2026.

[Woof Bronzer]

34 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Why do you say that. Did you see something amiss? Naturally, the  final results are a decade away.

Having seen him play a fair amount last season and this young campaign, Griffin looks like the real deal. He is really good with the glove and has a big arm. Check. He has a strong sense of the strike zone for a 19 year old and has reasonably balanced K/BB. Check. He is Buxton fast. Check. The power is easy. Check. He improved hit hit tool at every stop last season. Check. Seems like Konnor Griffin is a player that any team can build around in 2026.

I assume he means for Griffin.  If he's half of what he's cracked up to be, and manages to stay healthy (both big ifs), making $15m/year in his prime (26-28 years old) will be one of the greatest bargains in MLB history.  Juan Soto, the last teenage position player to debut, will be making $51m/year through his age 26-28 seasons.  

[DJL44]

You don’t want to hand out these deals to marginal talents like Jose Miranda or Randy Dobnak. Even if you select the right players, they are not all going to payoff. However, the upside is real. 
 

The comparison is to a venture capitalist. Not every investment will pay off but you have to place some bets or you will be paying retail price.

[stringer bell]

Wasn't Dobnak's deal a really low-dollar amount? What it ended up doing was allowing him to go back and forth to St. Paul even though he was out of options.

For these pre-arb and pre-debut deals, the player needs to have a floor of major league regular and a ceiling of superstar for the team to guarantee money through the arbitration years. We have seen that those type of players are pretty rare. 

[Hrbeks Divot]

“By holding back on extensions for players like Lewis, Miranda, and Lee at their respective peaks, the Twins may have preserved both payroll flexibility and roster optionality.”

The problem here is that the Twins have capitalized on neither. They haven’t spent the payroll they saved and they’ve locked themselves into an inflexible roster this year. I’d be fine with them taking a chance or two on pre-arb deals but if they won’t, they sure don’t seem to be jumping on the benefits being touted on the article.

[ashbury]

21 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Wasn't Dobnak's deal a really low-dollar amount? What it ended up doing was allowing him to go back and forth to St. Paul even though he was out of options.

Being able to DFA at will your 41st best player is not necessarily the aim here.  😁

[DJL44]

I doubt this team will start making pre-debut extensions. They rarely offer post-debut extensions.

[Rosterman]

Target Field was going to allow the Twins to keep their own pending free agent players. You would like to think it would also be spent to award players who look like potential franchise folks, with both sides giving a little. 

Hey, it worked with Buxton. The Twins got decent return of Span and Polanco.

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, Linus said:

Unless you are getting some free agent years I don’t think these deals are right for the Twins. The cost certainty is nice but IMO not worth the risk the player gets hurt or doesn’t perform. If these deals go bad it hurts the Twins relatively more because of the tighter payroll. 

It's that part and I'll add the age qualifier. I saw Abel was mentioned, but he doesn't hit FA until age 30, that's not worth it IMO. 

I'm not dogging the Twins for the Lopez extension at all, but they bought his age 28 through 31 seasons. He was fine in 2024, nothing really special. He missed a huge chunk of last year, he's missing all of this year, and then who knows what 2027 will look like. You don't expect that when you're signing established talent, but we're not even talking about trying to lock up established guys here. 

[DocBauer]

Cleveland started this idea a few decades ago and it worked. But it won't always work. I tend to agree with a recent Gleeman & The Geek episode on this subject. For every 10 you extend early, you'll be burned on a couple. You'll probably break even on a couple. And you'll WIN a few more. In the LONG RUN, you're almost guaranteed to WIN overall. 

But does ownership have the GUTS to play the long term WIN potential? Let's not forget they did this with Kepler, Polanco, and was Sano the 3rd? Memory fades.

Jenkins and K-Pepper are the 2 that come to mind. I have a lot of faith in Rodriguez, but there's enough "fear factor" that I don't like the early extension.

But I just can't ignore the OBVIOUS. Why not hold Tom Pohlad to his word about increasing payroll? Does anyone dispute Ryan as a TOP arm who is just growing in to an All Star starting pitcher? Jeffers is an average defensive catcher. He's a decent thrower. And he's a top 10, at least, offensively. But he calls a good game, has always had the trust of the staff, and has already proven to be EXCELLENT in the review process. And while Cardenas has the potential to be a solid backup option, ANY future catcher is at least 2yrs away.  So do you want to get in to the 2027 FA market? Or do you want to just keep what you have?

Ryan is just approaching the age where STUFF and experience makes him a legitimate #1 pitcher. Againz Jeffers is solid, but not great defensively, but a great bat for a catcher and is PROVING how smart he is as a receiver.

BEFORE you start handing out future contracts, how about you RE-SIGN TWO very IMPORTANT players in Ryan and Jeffers that are IMPORTANT for the team's future.

This is SO OBVIOUS to me! 

[dxpavelka]

Jon Singleton, Houston Astros, 2014:  5 years $10 million before his MLB debut.  12 years later:  160 career hits.

[DJL44]

7 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Jon Singleton, Houston Astros, 2014:  5 years $10 million before his MLB debut.  12 years later:  160 career hits.

$10M is the cost of one season of a relief pitcher now

[dxpavelka]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

$10M is the cost of one season of a relief pitcher now

Understand.  But that's not really the point.  The point is one potential way these things can go.  A cautionary tale.  If it's the right move I hope we do it in some of these situations.  Just that one nagging question.

[Trov]

Generally I would say the team is taking the risk on contracts that buy out the arb years and some of a FA year.  The reason for teams to want to do it is to know they have a guy locked up and cost controlled, you can plan for it.  However, you cannot do it too often because it will lock you into that player, or pay them not to play for you.  

The player has some risk to doing the contract, but like the Griffin contract extended how can a 19 year old turn down that?  Will it cost  him possibly 50 mil, maybe.  Maybe even more.  But if he tears his knee up tomorrow and never is able to play again, he still gets 140 mil.  

I do not know how often teams reach out for deal like this, and how often players turn them down. The other risk teams make is doing these type of deals is if you now have a position locked down, that may affect trades, drafts, and free agent signings in future.  

For example, if you sign a catcher to one of these, or a SS, you may be willing to trade a guy that is behind them at those positions, only to find they were the better player. If I ran a team I would only offer deals to very few select guys.  Large market teams could do this more, but it makes sense for small market teams.  

Like the Pirates did with Griffin.  He is hyped up, and they have 6 years of control before the deal, now they have 9.  You also do not need to worry about service time or anything like that.  In 5 years when he is 24, still getting into his prime you do not have to worry about a long term deal.  In 8 years when he is in his prime they will, but his value will most likely be at his peak too.  They will be unlikely to sign him, so they trade him at peak value.  

Could he be a bust sure that may happen, and then it will hurt them for years.  But odds are they were going to run him out there anyways, it just would have been a lot cheaper.