Pablo López Injury Swings the Door Wide Open for Mick Abel

[The Great Hambino]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Does anyone currently in the Twins bullpen have any plus pitches? That would be the start of a good article.

Clemens has an eephus with plus upside.  Does that count?

[Wedman13]

2 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I'm with you, FatBat. I say the Slim Reaper is the closer by mid-season. Has the right arsenal and makes sense with his injury issues. Great nickname for a closer. Add in some walk up music like "The Grim Reaper" by King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard, or "The Reaper" by Blue Oyster Cult, or even really heavy metal like "Rock You to Hell" by Grim Reaper or  Gursach's "I'm the Grim Reaper" and you have a 9th inning show.   

Kevin Durant is going to be our closer?

[AceWrigley]

Pablo scheduled for TJ surgery next wed. Feb 26th.

[Original_JB]

"he was facing an uphill battle to break into a deep major-league rotation out of camp" 

Outside of Ryan (and Lopez), only SWR had an ERA under 5 last year. While we've got a really deep MINOR-league rotation, we've only got 2 "knowns" for the Majors.

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Raya couldn't get people out in AAA. Penciling him in as a middle reliever is questionable at this point.

Last 9 games as a reliever in AAA.
4.91 ERA, 6.11 FIP, 8.35 K/9, 4.42 BB/9 and that's with a luck fueled .208 BABIP

Im still high on Raya. I understand that he had a tough season last year but until you give him some innings in MLB, you will never know if he can get guys out at the highest level. I would prefer that to happen in ‘26 since he has been on the40 man since 11/24. Wasting an asset in AAA doesn’t make sense.  Now if he has a horrible ST and something goes sideways, I would totally understand him staying in St. Paul. 

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Losing Pablo is a huge blow to the team. Nit just for his on field work, but hes a great team guy and clubhouse presence. Hopefully he'll be around often as a cheerleader and maybe help "coach" a little. 

That aside, it is exciting that we'll get to see a prospect have a chance to step up. Abel has the tools necessary to be an ace. Taj and Zebby have #2/3 potential. There is potential for a top 10, Maybe top 5, starting rotation if everyone plays how they should.  

[DJL44]

58 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Im still high on Raya. I understand that he had a tough season last year but until you give him some innings in MLB, you will never know if he can get guys out at the highest level. I would prefer that to happen in ‘26 since he has been on the40 man since 11/24. Wasting an asset in AAA doesn’t make sense.  Now if he has a horrible ST and something goes sideways, I would totally understand him staying in St. Paul. 

Not getting batters out in AAA is usually a reliable sign that you won't be able to get them out in MLB.

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I hope not. Festa has never been able to handle the innings needed for a starter. 

2022 103.2 IP

2023 92.1 IP

2024 124.2 IP

2025 84.2 IP

There there's his 1st and 2nd time through the order stats

1st time 206 PA .166/.218/.280 56K 11BB

2nd time 203 PA .301/.386/.523 50K 22BB

Do you want 60 great innings out of Festa or 100 mediocre innings?

They'll have to cover 1,500 innings minimum. 100 mediocre innings might actually be more valuable depending on who is covering the 40 inning difference. 

[IndianaTwin]

2 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

They'll have to cover 1,500 innings minimum. 100 mediocre innings might actually be more valuable depending on who is covering the 40 inning difference. 

Last year had 1426, but I see what you did there -- playoffs, baby! 🤣

[Fatbat]

35 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Not getting batters out in AAA is usually a reliable sign that you won't be able to get them out in MLB.

Meh. He wont be 24 until August. He is still a kid so why put him on a short leash. I would cut him a whole lot of slack and let him toss the ball. 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Does anyone currently in the Twins bullpen have any plus pitches? That would be the start of a good article.

Rogers actually still has a very good slider. It's the rest of the arsenal which is iffy.

Sands has a plus curveball.

Topa is pretty similar to Rogers.

Funderburk has a plus sinker.

Most relievers have a plus something. It's just whether the rest of what they're throwing is always a meatball. Unless you're Banda. If you're Banda, then your very best pitch is league average, but the Twins will desperately pick you up because you used to play on a good team.

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Does anyone currently in the Twins bullpen have any plus pitches? That would be the start of a good article.

I see somebody in the analytics gang didn’t like Festa’s stuff/chances in the PEN…… a .118BA against first time through the line-up, over 206 AB’s, that works for me in ONE inning outings!

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I see somebody in the analytics gang didn’t like Festa’s stuff/chances in the PEN…… a .118BA against first time through the line-up, over 206 AB’s, that works for me in ONE inning outings!

Might make sense to give him the 8th and 9th for 60 games and try to get 120 innings out of him. 

[h2oface]

Lopez could have sucked this year, anyway. Just as likely as if he would have been great. I mean really. Time to get on with it. Maybe all these pitchers will break out together. Time to findout. One thing is sure. You won't see Duran coming it to save his games. 

[bean5302]

10 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I see somebody in the analytics gang didn’t like Festa’s stuff/chances in the PEN…… a .118BA against first time through the line-up, over 206 AB’s, that works for me in ONE inning outings!

55.0 IP, 207 Batters, 2.45 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 3.46 xFIP, 9.16 K/9, 1.96 BB/9. The ERA is there, but those expected metrics aren't quite as favorable. As a closer? I don't know. I think Festa fits the Cole Sands mold more than the Griffin Jax mold, but who knows?

.166 Batting Average against
.205 BABIP

His Stuff+ reflects all fairly mediocre pitches in terms of velo and movement. He doesn't have any plus pitch based on velo and movement. Typically, a converted starter to elite reliever has at least 1 plus pitch offering when the conversion happens which puts that plus pitch into a plus-plus dominant pitch and raises the 40-50 grade stuff up a level too.

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Might make sense to give him the 8th and 9th for 60 games and try to get 120 innings out of him. 

Don’t see too many guys go more than an inning at a time and be able to pitch 3X per week. 24 weeks x 3 outings per week is 72 innings of close to Max Effort each time. This, to me, seems to be a good maximum goal.

[JD-TWINS]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

55.0 IP, 207 Batters, 2.45 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 3.46 xFIP, 9.16 K/9, 1.96 BB/9. The ERA is there, but those expected metrics aren't quite as favorable. As a closer? I don't know. I think Festa fits the Cole Sands mold more than the Griffin Jax mold, but who knows?

.166 Batting Average against
.205 BABIP

His Stuff+ reflects all fairly mediocre pitches in terms of velo and movement. He doesn't have any plus pitch based on velo and movement. Typically, a converted starter to elite reliever has at least 1 plus pitch offering when the conversion happens which puts that plus pitch into a plus-plus dominant pitch and raises the 40-50 grade stuff up a level too.

70-80 mostly effective innings from the PEN, regardless of 7th/8th/9th innings, is a nice spot for him.

[dxpavelka]

On 2/20/2026 at 8:17 AM, bunsen82 said:

We weren't getting Painter.  As to Abel,  if he has feel for the 4 seamer and starts to develop the sweeper.  There is definitely something to unlock there.   It does appear confidence appears to be something he needs to work on.  

Maybe, maybe not.  They moved him a day before the deadline.  Maybe they jumped the gun.  Wait another day and maybe Painter becomes available.  Maybe not. Didn't HAVE to trade him.  I like the return but maybe it could have been more.

[bunsen82]

53 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Maybe, maybe not.  They moved him a day before the deadline.  Maybe they jumped the gun.  Wait another day and maybe Painter becomes available.  Maybe not. Didn't HAVE to trade him.  I like the return but maybe it could have been more.

The GM said he was off limits.  Several organizations have said their best prospects are off limits.   You have to take the GM at face value.  Until he trades him in another trade, you have to acknowledge they are/were not trading him.   

I am not going to disagree with you on didn't have to return him.  I think Abel can be a #2, and I have 0 confidence in Tait.  I think that trade will turn out pretty well overall,  and we do have the #3 draft pick in the draft this year.  

[dxpavelka]

I have less confidence in anything any GM says than you do in Tait.  Not sure why you have no confidence in him.  Also don't think having the # 3 pick in the draft has anything to do with whether or not Painter was gettable.

 

[bunsen82]

On 2/21/2026 at 4:02 PM, dxpavelka said:

I have less confidence in anything any GM says than you do in Tait.  Not sure why you have no confidence in him.  Also don't think having the # 3 pick in the draft has anything to do with whether or not Painter was gettable.

 

I don't have confidence in Tait because he is a young catching prospect.  His name to fame is potential power which so far has been ok but nothing great, but its all based on projection.   So with an ok hit tool currently, although extremely advanced, there is a ton of variability in his outcomes, thus I have zero confidence.  

Even if you don't want to believe what the GM says, believe his actions - he hasn't traded him.   Period end of story.   

The #3 pick has nothing specifically to do with painter.   Its additional compensation in effectively tanking the season so it has to be taken into consideration why we traded the all of our active relievers last year other than Sands and Topa.  

[stringer bell]

Raya has shown pretty good stuff in his two outings this spring, including one outing against the Gophers. Yeah, Abel has really good stuff. If there is one guy on the roster that could be better than Ryan/Pablo, I think it is him. It's a good start for both of them and both have to be better than their competition to get an Opening Day roster spot.

There are now seven main contenders for five rotation spots. Given how baseball goes in the 2020s, they will all get their chances this year and most likely a few more guys will get starts, as well.

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Raya has shown pretty good stuff in his two outings this spring, including one outing against the Gophers. Yeah, Abel has really good stuff. If there is one guy on the roster that could be better than Ryan/Pablo, I think it is him. It's a good start for both of them and both have to be better than their competition to get an Opening Day roster spot.

There are now seven main contenders for five rotation spots. Given how baseball goes in the 2020s, they will all get their chances this year and most likely a few more guys will get starts, as well.

Obviously it would be better to NOT lose Pablo but I'm all about young guys getting starts this year.  Especially with the prospect of a lost, or significantly shortened 2027 season on the horizon. Same thing goes on the offensive side of things as well. I don't want to go into 2028 without having seen Lee get a shot at being a full-time player and guys like Jenkins, Rodriguez & Gonzalez all getting a couple hundred plate appearances at the big league level.  I'd probably throw Culpeper and Hendry Mendez into that mix as well maybe to a slightly lesser degree.  Would love to have clarity about how a minor league season would shake out in 2027 if a big league work stoppage were to happen.