Matt Wallner Should Swing Harder In 2026

[Cody Pirkl]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Matt Wallner has been a polarizing player since he debuted with the Twins. The organization has been cautious of his skill set, and some sections of the fanbase still have not bought in, despite nearly 1000 plate appearances of impact offense. After a down 2025, could a focus on reverting his approach lead to a bounce-back?

 

Twins fans shudder at Wallner’s offensive profile after a prolific stretch of all-or-nothing hitters over the last decade or so within the organization. His strikeouts have been high, and have admittedly given him significant problems at times in his career thus far, as he’s hit cold stretches that have gotten him demoted in some instances. While Wallner’s profile may limit his ceiling and lead to inconsistencies, it’s hard to argue with the overall body of work. Wallner has an .829 OPS in his career, which is 31% above the league average hitter since he debuted.

2025 was undoubtedly a down year for Wallner. His still-solid .776 OPS felt much worse to watch, as he struggled situationally and never put together any extended stretches of production. Many fans felt justified in their doubt about Wallner’s swing-and-miss profile, wondering if the league had finally caught up with him and figured out how to take advantage of his lack of contact more consistently. While it was Wallner’s worst season since he debuted, his whiffs didn’t play the role many people think they did.

 

Wallner’s down season didn’t have just one major component to blame; rather, many smaller factors came together to cause his struggles. His maximum and average exit velocities were the lowest of his career. His percentage of pop-ups increased. His performance against fastballs, which was arguably his biggest strength in his first few seasons, cratered to a sub-200 expected batting average, with his expected slugging percentage following suit.

 

You’ll notice that an increase in strikeout rate wasn’t cited. That’s because Wallner’s 29.1% strikeout rate was comfortably the lowest of his career. His whiff rate against fastballs declined, which opposes the narrative that pitchers simply found a hole in his swing that could be exploited with velocity. This was the case for all pitch types in 2025. With runners in scoring position, where plenty of fans recognize Wallner struggled, he struck out 24% of the time, a sharp decline from 35% in his stellar 2024 season.

Matt Wallner looks like a player who was trying to shift away from his high swing and miss ways last season, despite the fact that they’ve made him an elite hitter at times. Being just a bit more tentative in decision-making and focusing more on contact than on impacting the ball could certainly lead to a snowball effect, with many small declines combining to produce poor overall performance.

 

It’s never this simple, but Wallner may benefit from a return to his hard swinging ways in 2025. His bat speed notably declined in 2025. Perhaps this was the result of an intended shift in approach, or perhaps Wallner’s hamstring injury in early 2025 affected him all season. Either way, his 2025 performance suggests he’s a better hitter when he’s reaching his peak bat speed, so he can cause maximum damage when he makes contact, even if it results in more swing and miss.

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Would you like to see Matt Wallner return to his 100th percentile hard swinging ways in 2026? Are the strikeouts simply too much of a trade-off? Let us know below!

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[thelanges5]

Plouffe has long been one of my favorite Twins and I like listening to him on his jomboy shows. I heard him say last week that he has been working with Matt Wallner. Here is an article from Puckett’s pond, saying the same thing. Love to see it!
 

https://puckettspond.com/trevor-plouffe-predicts-breakout-season-for-twins-slugger-he-s-been-working-with-01kftx91867d

[tony&rodney]

Matt Wallner is a guy who can do some damage with the bat in his hand. I'm hoping he finds a path to vast improvement in the batter's box. 

The improvement at the plate should be combined with using Wallner strictly in the DH slot. Like Nelson Cruz, his bat could make him a real danger to pitchers and his seat on the bench when his team is in the field will endear him to the pitchers on his own team. 

Wallner's ability to hit is going to be a huge part of the 2026 team. 

I do still wonder if Pittsburgh might be tempted to trade Jared Jones for Big Matt.

[HerbieFan]

It's make-or-break time for Matty

[strumdatjag]

Make a correction.  You write 2025 once when you mean 2026.   Not a big knock - we all do it well into every new year. 

[JADBP]

I agree.  While he’s gonna strike out too much, make him a full time DH.   He’s just not as good a RFer as others in the organization.  

[FlyingFinn]

Watching last year it seemed pitchers frequently went with a high strike when they needed to get Wallner out. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

Watching last year it seemed pitchers frequently went with a high strike when they needed to get Wallner out. 

Seemed like there is a big high FB hole in Wallner swing

[Jim H]

I would be surprised if swinging harder will actually make Wallner into a consistent, effective middle of the order bat. If he can't be that, I would prefer the Twins try out one of the legions of corner outfielders on their 40 man roster. They also have a bunch of other guys on the roster best suited to be DH. I think at this point the string should be pretty short for Wallner.  A real middle of the order bat is one the things that is a clear need on this team. Maybe more than one. Buxton is the only one and they tend to use him at lead off.

[mikelink45]

I have only one thought - hit the damn ball

[Fatbat]

He should hit the damn ball more often*

[TopGunn#22]

I don't want to get too excited about what Trevor Plouffe has said about working with Wallner, but what the heck.  Why Not ??

We keep waiting for a Bob Allison (left handed version) type of season from Wallner and maybe it's in there somewhere.  I'd feel better about our OF defense if Wallner was our full time DH, but we signed Josh Bell.  

This really is kind of a make or break season for Wallner, with Walker Jenkins, E-Rod and Gabriel Gonzalez knocking on the door.  Having that kind of young talent poised to make an impact leaves me in the tony&rodney camp of wanting to trade him to the Pirates for young RH-SP Jared Jones, or a similar high ceiling return.

I hope Wallner does well and doesn't tank his current value.  But I also think we WILL see at least one of those young OF this season, and maybe even all 3.  With Gabriel Gonzalez being more of a DH type that doesn't leave any room at all for Matt Wallner in the Twins near future.  But the talent potential is certainly there for Wallner to command a nice return whenever the 3 youngsters crack MLB.  

[AKTwinsFan]

Hes got the power already, I think his "hard" swing is why he strikes out so much. If he'd square up more and tamper down his leg kick he'd be more productive. 

[jmlease1]

21 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Watching last year it seemed pitchers frequently went with a high strike when they needed to get Wallner out. 

I need data rather than a feeling, though. It's easy to remember a few times when Wallner whiffed on a high heater, but whether he actually has a hole in his swing? Memory from watching doesn't tell you enough; people inevitably weight the most notable ones and draw conclusions that don't necessarily match to the reality over time.

"If you want to convince me of something, Mrs. Landingham, show me numbers!" - Jed Bartlet.

[bean5302]

The biggest help for Wallner is having somebody else in the lineup who can hit, too. Pitchers tried their best to pitch around Wallner last year since almost nobody else in the lineup was much of a threat, and it showed. Wallner's "situational" hitting has been harped on, but it's not like he had a lot of opportunities to be in a high leverage or RISP position. In the rare instances he was, it looks more like the BABIP monster ate his production up.

I expect Wallner to have a bounce-back year, but a lot of his value is going to be decided on what position he plays, I expect. Hopefully, Plouffe is working with Wallner in the field.

[Jim H]

9 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The biggest help for Wallner is having somebody else in the lineup who can hit, too. Pitchers tried their best to pitch around Wallner last year since almost nobody else in the lineup was much of a threat, and it showed. Wallner's "situational" hitting has been harped on, but it's not like he had a lot of opportunities to be in a high leverage or RISP position. In the rare instances he was, it looks more like the BABIP monster ate his production up.

I expect Wallner to have a bounce-back year, but a lot of his value is going to be decided on what position he plays, I expect. Hopefully, Plouffe is working with Wallner in the field.

All of this is likely true. He also likely didn't benefit from the weird platoon role he was put in in 24. Still, he is largely a 3 true outcome guy. He needs to be a lot more consistent then he has been to this point.  Right now he looks to be more like a guy who should be batting in the bottom third of a lineup then the middle of the lineup. As I said above, his rope should be kind of short. There are a lot of corner outfielders on the 40 man who could potentially provide or exceed what Wallner has achieved so far.

[DocBauer]

I have to wonder hiw much the hamstring injury affected him in 2025. Did discomfort linger? Did it throw off his timing and possibly affect his timing? 

I also find it interesting that similar to Jeffers, he SO far less, but the power slipped for both of them. And they might have been the only ones. Did the previous staff push for contact changes that took away power? Just spitballing a bit here.

With all due respect to those who absolutely cringe at the idea of high K totals, I would take higher SO numbers and a return to potential 30 HR power and the previous .870-ish OPS Wallner of 2023-24. He's probably always going to be a bit streaky...many players are to some degree...but over a healthy 162 game season he's shown to be a .250-ish hitter with a decent OB%, and he's got real 30HR power with another 20+ Dbls mixed in. That's a really dangerous and productive hitter.

[NYCTK]

19 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I need data rather than a feeling, though. It's easy to remember a few times when Wallner whiffed on a high heater, but whether he actually has a hole in his swing? Memory from watching doesn't tell you enough; people inevitably weight the most notable ones and draw conclusions that don't necessarily match to the reality over time.

"If you want to convince me of something, Mrs. Landingham, show me numbers!" - Jed Bartlet.