Exploring Twins Prospects Who Can Provide a Potential Right-Handed Power Bat

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Didn’t Brent Rooker have a few issues in his swing and development?  All the guys that say this guy cant& that guy wont ever are just silly guesses as to how someone’s career might go.  Sit back and be patient. All these guys are way to young to count out. They all could be MLB regulars, all stars or AAAA wash outs. Might even get an HOF’r from this group. We don’t know yet. 

This players in the article are already too old and/or too defensively challenged to have a Hall of Fame level career.

Walker Jenkins is the only player in the entire minor league system who looks like he has HoF upside and that upside becomes less likely every month he stays in the minors.

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

Giving up on guys too soon happens and has been happening forever in baseball. Holding on to hope and trying to fix guys or let them “develop” is equally as common. Cubs traded Lou Brock as an example.

However, at some point decisions need to be made on guys that have played 3-6 years past high school because every year there’s an influx of new bodies. Talent evaluators - coaches - competition within the Team’s organization, these all play into the process of weeding out guys that are not or not likely to produce going forward. Can’t just hang on to everyone so nobody can ever say you made a mistake……..not realistic.

 

 

I totally understand. You are absolutely correct. The CBA clearly shows the roster limitations that all teams must adhere to and those limitations force teams to make decisions on who gets 40 man spots and 26 man spots. Every player has a ticking clock attached to them and points of time where hard decisions must be made on them because of these roster limitations. 

I believe the players that they must decide between... the differences are razor thin. They are looking at a big pile of players in the middle with different strengths in weaknesses to choose from. There is simply no way for clubs to avoid spillage because development isn't linear.  

It's why I have been repeating over and over again for years. Every 26 man roster spot is gold and shouldn't be wasted.  

If the front office wants to screw around, waste roster spots on specialists, short side platoons, pinch runners, defensive specialists or PEOPLE THEY WON'T PLAY period. They will compromise discovery, they will compromise development and leave them no choice but to be searching for one year filler year after year after year. 

Compromising discovery. It's important because they don't know which players rise out of that big pile of players in the middle. If they knew... Ronny Henriquez and Brent Rooker would still be in Minnesota.

They don't know and therefore... I seriously doubt if any of the posters on Twinsdaily know what GG, Rosario or Fedko can become. The future of these players are TBD... unless the Twins have already pre-determined their fates. It's the one sure thing. If the Twins don't believe in a player... they can guarantee their fates by not calling them up or not playing them when they do get a call up.     

[bean5302]

15 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Didn’t Brent Rooker have a few issues in his swing and development?...

No changes, just some steady opportunity.

14 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

All my fellow TDers referring to Rooker must keep in mind that Rooker developed into not only an above average major leaguer but also an All Star after he left the Twins organization....  

He was already the hitter he became with the A's. He didn't develop, just got steady opportunities.

5 hours ago, High heat said:

...Rosario has a bit of Brent Rooker in him.  Light tower power without much else for tools but slight adjustment to make enough contact can make him a very good big leaguer...

Rooker certainly demonstrated a lot more game power in his post high school years playing in college and summer league than Rosario as a high school pick playing pro ball, but it's hard to compare the two because of their paths. 

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

How many Brent Rooker type players can you name in the last 5,10,25 years?...

Very few. Organizations don't cast aside a slugger like Rooker who was dominating high minors, had much higher expected results than actual, demonstrating very good exit velocities. Speaks more about Falvey than it does likelihood a young slugger will develop.

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

This players in the article are already too old and/or too defensively challenged to have a Hall of Fame level career.

Walker Jenkins is the only player in the entire minor league system who looks like he has HoF upside and that upside becomes less likely every month he stays in the minors.

Even Rooker himself has no shot at the HoF. He's 30 with 9 career fWAR. I think he could end up with maybe 30 career WAR? Really an outstanding career overall, but only 1 in 100 players make the HoF. More like 1 in 300 these days. When I last reviewed Jenkins' performance and compared him with his peers (high 1st round picks out of high school), he fell in the middle ground. Could be elite, could be nothing at the MLB level. Feels like a Max Kepler kind of player to me, which in and of itself is pretty awesome. Just too early to really know.

[bean5302]

10 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

That is a very good non-answer.   You are applying two definitions to a single phrase.  That is not proving your point.  I think I actually agree with everything you said, but I'm not sure because of your phraseology.

I wasn't seeking to "prove my point" so much as explain context matters and my point was never "19 years old" to begin with. You misinterpreted something I wrote taking it more literally than it was intended.

[bunsen82]

15 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

All my fellow TDers referring to Rooker must keep in mind that Rooker developed into not only an above average major leaguer but also an All Star after he left the Twins organization.

The sad truth is the Twins have not internally developed a position player of that calibre since Arraez and Jeffers - that’s a long time ago and essentially before Falvey and Rocco.

Sure, the manager has been changed, but, until proven otherwise, there is little to suggest that any of the four prospects highlighted in this article have a strong probability of developing into an every day major leaguer.  Hope that’s wrong, especially about Gonzalez.

Hate to be Debbie Downer, but just keeping things real.  The track record is what the track record is.   

To be fair Keaschall looks dang good.   Lewis has a wide variety of outcomes as does Wallner, as both could easily take a longer road just like Rooker.  He did draft Jeffers.  Overall though,  those 17-19 drafts haven't produced enough, or an all star or elite player or let the 1 that we did walk away even though he struggled with 2 other teams before he found his footing with the A's.  The 2020 draft is nullified due to Covid,  then we traded away most of our 2021 draft (Steer 2019, CES and Petty although not a position player) to supplement the MLB team.  So we are left with the 22-24 drafts to produce our position players and on that front we have some pretty darn good options.  

Jenkins, Culpepper,  Keaschall (already mentioned),  Lee has a chance to be average to slightly above average (not likely an all star), Diaw is very interesting,  Amick, Winokur and Debarge.  This is more talent and more quality talent than anything we drafted in those 2017-2019 drafts.   Then you add in the players we traded for in Gonzalez, Mendez and Tait (and don't sleep on Jimenez).    I am actually quite optimistic moving forward.  You need quality players to develop into MLB players,  and say what you will there wasn't much in the system when they came,  Falvey had a big swing and a miss with Cavaco. Since 2021 - they have done a much better job bringing in pretty solid positional players into the mix.    

If you want to keep things real this is what I see.  

[Peter Gravett]

23 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The jump for Gabe Gonzalez last year was exciting.  If he has a solid spring training and gets off to a good start at St. Paul, he could crack the Twins lineup faster than any of us expected a year ago.  

I tend to forget that Rosario is just 23 years old.  He finished the year at AA so I'm not sure if the plan is to leave him there to begin 2026 or promote him to St. Paul to start the year.  I can see why nobody picked him up in the Rule 5 draft.  He's 23 and hasn't risen above AA.  But I'm glad he's back in our system and interested to see how he does once he's at St. Paul.

While Gonzalez is the clear #1 for interest and excitement, I'm really intrigued with Fedko, and I'm not sure why it appears the Twins are NOT.  Yes, he's 25 years old, but his apparent defensive flexibility (playing all 3 OF positions and 1B) as well as the numbers he put up at AAA St. Paul got MY attention.  For a team craving some kind of RH hitting (in fact, ANY kind of consistent hitting) in a corner OF position or 1B is puzzling to me.  He must have huge holes in his swing, and while he plays 4 positions, maybe he's just sub-par at each of them.  But it will be really interesting to me to see what the Twins do if Fedko continues to punish the baseball at St. Paul and our offense continues to fizzle.

Olivar is interesting primarily if he can stick at Catcher.  He's been a solid hitter, not a great hitter in the minors.  If his defense at Catcher improves to begin the 2026 minor league season and he earns a promotion to AAA, he may make a deadline trade of Jeffers possible.  

Agreed on Gonzalez and Fedko in particular. Gonzalez has holes in his game, but in addition to his bat he's got a great arm, making him almost ready for a platoon role in RF IMO. Fedko's bat came out of nowhere. Very exciting if he picks up where he left off, as he's got the athleticism they're now seeking. A potentially great story in the making.

[terrydactyls]

23 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I wasn't seeking to "prove my point" so much as explain context matters and my point was never "19 years old" to begin with. You misinterpreted something I wrote taking it more literally than it was intended.

Simple solution.  Write with clarity in mind.  Don't assume people know what you are thinking.

[Peter Gravett]

23 hours ago, twinstalker said:

One guy who has a chance, three guys who have no chance.  Perhaps this should have been an article on Gonzalez alone.  Or maybe we should include Yunior Severino, wherever he is these days. :-)

I just don't understand why Rosario gets any talk whatsoever.  If his hitting slash were an important part of his evaluation, he wouldn't have been unprotected for Rule V.  All sorts of minor league hitters put up good slashes, and the reason they're not protected is because there are very simple statistics in their profile that near 100% determine they have no chance to hit in MLB.

Walks don't even remotely balance strikeouts.  Walks are not even necessarily good in the minors, in that they frequently indicate passivity.  The good ones get walks because the pitchers can't strike them out.  So they're not independent good and evil stats. 

I'm not sure what the second part of that 2nd sentence means or implies.  The 27.5% strikeout rate is untenable.  Simply, you cannot have that at AA (second trip there) and expect to ever hit in the majors.  Or do you think MLB pitchers will balance this out by walking him a bunch?  They simply won't, and it should scream to you that walk rate in the minors is very misleading.

Fedko

If you really squint, Fedko might seem like a platoon player, but then maybe you look at his splits and see that he can't hit lefties.

Olivar

Unlike the other two, I've put Olivar in my top 25 prospects at times because he's always hit decently (K rate decent) and could catch.  But he also struggles vs lhp and probably is a cuspish player to begin with.  And it doesn't seem the Twins think he'll be a catcher; at least they're not treating him that way, catching him 40% of the time in 2025.

I like Olivar's bat, but having watched him plenty in the minors, he literally drops the ball all to frequently and he's slow to get out of the crouch. Not particularly athletic, its time to groom him for 1st base.

[Nashvilletwin]

24 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

To be fair Keaschall looks dang good.   Lewis has a wide variety of outcomes,  he could easily take a longer road just like Rooker.  He did draft Jeffers.  Overall though,  those 17-19 drafts haven't produced enough, or an all star or elite player.  The 2020 draft is nullified due to Covid,  then we traded away most of our 2021 draft (Steer 2019, CES and Petty although not a position player) to supplement the MLB team.  So we are left with the 22-24 drafts to produce our position players and on that front we have some pretty darn good options.  

Jenkins, Culpepper,  Keaschall (already mentioned),  Lee has a chance to be average to slightly above average (not likely an all star), Diaw is very interesting,  Amick, Winokur and Debarge.  This is more talent and more quality talent than anything we drafted in those 2017-2019 drafts.   Then you add in the players we traded for in Gonzalez, Mendez and Tait (and don't sleep on Jimenez).    I am actually quite optimistic moving forward.  You need quality players to develop into MLB players,  and say what you will there wasn't much in the system when they came,  Falvey had a big swing and a miss with Cavaco. Since 2021 - they have done a much better job bringing in pretty solid positional players into the mix.    

If you want to keep things real this is what I see.  

Jeffers is about an average major leaguer - at times a bit better, and at times a bit worse.

Lewis, to date, is a way below average major leaguer. Let’s hope that changes, but his career to-date, for whatever reasons, has been a disappointment.  He’ll get his (last?) chance this season.

Lee has done nothing to date to suggest long-term he is anything but a utility player.

Heck, Martin, funnily enough against all odds, might actually turn out to be the best example of a modicum of success.

Everyone else you mention are all on the come. Sure, they might turn out.  But we’ve had over a dozen of similar types of prospects that have turned into ZERO average or better, consistent major league starting position players.  That’s the truth   That’s keeping things real.

The point wasn’t that we don’t have, as you correctly point out, some absolutely fine prospects. Instead, it’s that the recent history of this organization is that it has not successfully transitioned similar accoladed prospects into legitimate contributors.  Thus, let’s not hold our collective breaths on GG or the other three (who absolutely are not as highly rated as many others who have failed in the past) to become the great RH bat saviour.

Let’s hope the Twins somehow figure out improve dramatically in this area.

 

 

[old nurse]

45 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

No changes, just some steady opportunity.

He was already the hitter he became with the A's. He didn't develop, just got steady opportunities.

Rooker certainly demonstrated a lot more game power in his post high school years playing in college and summer league than Rosario as a high school pick playing pro ball, but it's hard to compare the two because of their paths. 

Very few. Organizations don't cast aside a slugger like Rooker who was dominating high minors, had much higher expected results than actual, demonstrating very good exit velocities. Speaks more about Falvey than it does likelihood a young slugger will develop.

Even Rooker himself has no shot at the HoF. He's 30 with 9 career fWAR. I think he could end up with maybe 30 career WAR? Really an outstanding career overall, but only 1 in 100 players make the HoF. More like 1 in 300 these days. When I last reviewed Jenkins' performance and compared him with his peers (high 1st round picks out of high school), he fell in the middle ground. Could be elite, could be nothing at the MLB level. Feels like a Max Kepler kind of player to me, which in and of itself is pretty awesome. Just too early to really know.

Rooker has said in a fan site he made adjustments to his swing. 

[Peter Gravett]

20 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

If we were doing a true article -  

1. Kaelen Culpepper (SS/3B) - 25+ Home run potential with a good hit tool.  He looks extremely solid.  

2. Gabriel Gonzalez ( -  I love his bat the best of anyone in the system not named Jenkins.   He just doesn't provide the defensive versatility the a Culpepper or Jenkins does. 

3.  Billy Amick (1st/3rd) -  .310/418/.455 slash line at A+ is very very good.  Now he was outmatched in fall ball.  He was playing against players at higher levels - and he still somehow managed to get an OBP of nearly .300.  he may struggle as he moves up - but he has 30+ homer potential.   I felt his hit tool was much better than anticipated.  Had I told you when we drafted him he would hit .310 in Cedar Rapids this year I would say 99% of the people would have laughed.  

Hope they give KC a serious look in spring training. Yes his bat took the month of August off, but his bat and play in the field could fill holes both in the field and the batter's box.

[bunsen82]

32 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Jeffers is about an average major leaguer - at times a bit better, and at times a bit worse.

Lewis, to date, is a way below average major leaguer. Let’s hope that changes, but his career to-date, for whatever reasons, has been a disappointment.  He’ll get his (last?) chance this season.

Lee has done nothing to date to suggest long-term he is anything but a utility player.

Heck, Martin, funnily enough against all odds, might actually turn out to be the best example of a modicum of success.

Everyone else you mention are all on the come. Sure, they might turn out.  But we’ve had over a dozen of similar types of prospects that have turned into ZERO average or better, consistent major league starting position players.  That’s the truth   That’s keeping things real.

The point wasn’t that we don’t have, as you correctly point out, some absolutely fine prospects. Instead, it’s that the recent history of this organization is that it has not successfully transitioned similar accoladed prospects into legitimate contributors.  Thus, let’s not hold our collective breaths on GG or the other three (who absolutely are not as highly rated as many others who have failed in the past) to become the great RH bat saviour.

Let’s hope the Twins somehow figure out improve dramatically in this area.

 

 

You keep wanting to say past performance is making you completely discount the performance of current prospects.  Even though that isn't true.  Rooker is an all star.  Jeffers will likely have almost a 10 War with us (6.5 in the last 3 years) .  That is not an average player.  He has a career 105 OPS and higher than that in the last 3 years.   You take that any day of the week.  If you had a team of Jeffers you would win a lot of games.   Lewis is a 4 WAR player.  I think he has some things to tweak but again that is not a below average player.  

In his first full season yes Lee was a below average player.  That is stating he won't improve.   The one thing I know I can say about Lee is he is a tireless worker,  he will be in his age 25 season.  He doesn't have a high ceiling but he can easily be a solid second baseman, shortstop or utility player in the future.  I personally see him as a 1-2 WAR per a year utility player and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.  Yes its optimistic.  It also plays in line with what he has done at the previous levels of the MLB.  What we know is its a big jump from AAA to MLB, that it takes players a bit to adjust is something we have to acknowledge,  you want to say modicum of success in Martin - granted a traded player, but he had 1/2 of a good season with the Twins.  Which then means you are having a recency bias as well which I think is part of the issue with your assessment of Jeffers.  

The law of averages says if you have had less success you can have more success in the future.  There is also the law of averages, that the more quality and the larger number of quality prospects will inevitably produce more and better quality MLB players.  

So in summary yes I am an optimist, but I also look at the numbers.  I think you need to also.  Don't just be a major debbie downer.  

[nicksaviking]

Knock on wood we have a few keepers from this list. 

But also, while with the Pirates Derek Shelton platooned and pinch-hit significantly less than Rocco Baldelli did, so maybe some of these lefties will get a chance to develop into useful hitters against same-handed pitching as well.

[jmlease1]

29 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Rooker has said in a fan site he made adjustments to his swing. 

Yeah, there's no question that Rooker made improvement and adjustments after he left; it wasn't just a case of getting more opportunities. It's important to remember that Rooker flunked out in SD and KC too before figuring it out. But good for him.

It would be great if someone like Rosario keeps fine-tuning his game and rises up as a better hitter and player then almost everyone is projecting, but it's not something you can count on. So far, Twins have done ok with him, giving him time in the AFL, correctly assessing his value so they haven't needed to add him to the 40-man...and who knows? Maybe he takes another leap in AAA.

But GG is the most likely option; he doesn't turn 22 for another week, but hit very well in a decent sized opportunity in AAA while jumping all the way up from A-ball in one season, and earning it at every stop. There's a lot to like with his hit tool.

I don't have any problems with giving GG more time in AAA, but I hope that the Twins will make it more of an open competition for the last spots in the OF, rather than just hand jobs to Outman and Larnach.

[Jeff K]

10 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Yeah, there's no question that Rooker made improvement and adjustments after he left; it wasn't just a case of getting more opportunities. It's important to remember that Rooker flunked out in SD and KC too before figuring it out. But good for him.

It would be great if someone like Rosario keeps fine-tuning his game and rises up as a better hitter and player then almost everyone is projecting, but it's not something you can count on. So far, Twins have done ok with him, giving him time in the AFL, correctly assessing his value so they haven't needed to add him to the 40-man...and who knows? Maybe he takes another leap in AAA.

But GG is the most likely option; he doesn't turn 22 for another week, but hit very well in a decent sized opportunity in AAA while jumping all the way up from A-ball in one season, and earning it at every stop. There's a lot to like with his hit tool.

I don't have any problems with giving GG more time in AAA, but I hope that the Twins will make it more of an open competition for the last spots in the OF, rather than just hand jobs to Outman and Larnach.

Outman will hopefully be released and I sincerely hope the Twins trade Larnach.  They ought to be able to get an ok relief pitcher for him.  Make room for the Youngsters.

[BrokenCompass]

Let GG get a real shot in spring training and give him a spot in the starting lineup if he earns it. 

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

You keep wanting to say past performance is making you completely discount the performance of current prospects.  Even though that isn't true.  Rooker is an all star.  Jeffers will likely have almost a 10 War with us (6.5 in the last 3 years) .  That is not an average player.  He has a career 105 OPS and higher than that in the last 3 years.   You take that any day of the week.  If you had a team of Jeffers you would win a lot of games.   Lewis is a 4 WAR player.  I think he has some things to tweak but again that is not a below average player.  

In his first full season yes Lee was a below average player.  That is stating he won't improve.   The one thing I know I can say about Lee is he is a tireless worker,  he will be in his age 25 season.  He doesn't have a high ceiling but he can easily be a solid second baseman, shortstop or utility player in the future.  I personally see him as a 1-2 WAR per a year utility player and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that.  Yes its optimistic.  It also plays in line with what he has done at the previous levels of the MLB.  What we know is its a big jump from AAA to MLB, that it takes players a bit to adjust is something we have to acknowledge,  you want to say modicum of success in Martin - granted a traded player, but he had 1/2 of a good season with the Twins.  Which then means you are having a recency bias as well which I think is part of the issue with your assessment of Jeffers.  

The law of averages says if you have had less success you can have more success in the future.  There is also the law of averages, that the more quality and the larger number of quality prospects will inevitably produce more and better quality MLB players.  

So in summary yes I am an optimist, but I also look at the numbers.  I think you need to also.  Don't just be a major debbie downer.  

I’m giving you Jeffers, ok? But he’s the last position player the Twins have developed into a consistent, every day average or better major leaguer. (Btw, how can you even mention Rooker with a straight face?  Hahaha).

There is no way you can make that claim about any of the other players you mentioned as of today.  Looking at the numbers.  There probably isn’t a single TDer who would claim that Lewis has had successful career to date.  But that’s not to say he still doesn’t have a chance,  And very few think Lee can be anymore than a utility player. Heck, maybe he turns it around and proves everyone wrong. Let’s hope so.

So, sure, the jury is still out on several players, including Lewis, Lee and, yes, even Martin (who 100% has not to date demonstrated that he fits the definition of success). Throw in Wallner too - Mr. Up and Down the past couple of seasons.

Again, the gist of this article was about four prospects who could become our “needed” RH thumper. My only point is that the recent history of this organization would not suggest that is likely, particularly for the three prospects not named Gonzalez.

I’m as optimistic as the next guy.  I love our prospect list. I hope Shelton will invest in them big time in 2026 and 2027. I’m cheering hard for Lewis and Lee and Martin and Wallner. It’s only my opinion, but I don’t think their careers have been particularly well managed by this organization.

But I tend to deal in results and not hype.

[bunsen82]

23 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I’m giving you Jeffers, ok? But he’s the last position player the Twins have developed into a consistent, every day average or better major leaguer. (Btw, how can you even mention Rooker with a straight face?  Hahaha).

There is no way you can make that claim about any of the other players you mentioned as of today.  Looking at the numbers.  There probably isn’t a single TDer who would claim that Lewis has had successful career to date.  But that’s not to say he still doesn’t have a chance,  And very few think Lee can be anymore than a utility player. Heck, maybe he turns it around and proves everyone wrong. Let’s hope so.

So, sure, the jury is still out on several players, including Lewis, Lee and, yes, even Martin (who 100% has not to date demonstrated that he fits the definition of success). Throw in Wallner too - Mr. Up and Down the past couple of seasons.

Again, the gist of this article was about four prospects who could become our “needed” RH thumper. My only point is that the recent history of this organization would not suggest that is likely, particularly for the three prospects not named Gonzalez.

I’m as optimistic as the next guy.  I love our prospect list. I hope Shelton will invest in them big time in 2026 and 2027. I’m cheering hard for Lewis and Lee and Martin and Wallner. It’s only my opinion, but I don’t think their careers have been particularly well managed by this organization.

But I tend to deal in results and not hype.

Im not dealing with hype - im dealing with results

Jeffers 6 plus WAR in 3 years.  Lewis 4 War in 2 1/2 comple years with most of that coming in 2023. Wallner is 5 WAR in 3 years.   Of the players Lewis is the one that I get the most frustrated with because when he came up he showed he could take the ball the other way.  If he does that 10% of the time,  he will get so many more pitches inside the plate.  If he can cover the outside part better they will have to start coming more over the plate and trying to catch him inside.  Right now he is strictly an inside half of the plate player which can be easily pitched around.     He can be a 3-5 WAR player if he makes adjustments and remains healthy,  will he that is the question.  

I can keep a straight face with Rooker.  It proves my point really good players can struggle sometimes in the big leagues and it can take time.  Ehem Ehem Lee.  Now will Lee figure it out.  Personally yes, but I understand you haven't seen it yet (results oriented and all).  

I understand your points -  but it also is not acknowledging that the Twins have more and better prospects for positional players,  since maybe 2013-2015 when Buxton and Sano were leading the minors.   

There was hype over Miranda - who had 1 really good season.  There was hype over Julien.  Then hype over Lewis.   Jenkins, Culpepper and Gonzalez have all shown better in the minors than almost any of the other players and Jenkins and Gonzalez at a younger age.  That is excluding Mendez as well.  Those 4 have some of the best hit tools, of the best prospects the Twins have had in the system since Arraez and before that????   Hit tool generally translates.  When you have 4 players with very good to elite hit tool,  the results will likely be very good.  

I can look at the whole picture.  I understand some of your frustrations,  but you are massively undervaluing the players that Falvey has drafted and that are at the MLB level - and giving no credit to the prospects in the system.   Just my opinion.  I will leave it there because it does appear we won't agree on this topic.  

[stringer bell]

Agree with @mnfiremanthat the Twins aren’t really lacking RH hitting as much as LH hitters are stacked at certain positions (as are RH hitters).  Currently there are at least five and perhaps as many as seven left handed hitters in line to play three positions. It seems unlikely that even one of the guys profiled can jump in front of the line of lefty hitters (plus Austin Martin) unless bodies are moved. 

[nicksaviking]

30 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I understand your points -  but it also is not acknowledging that the Twins have more and better prospects for positional players,  since maybe 2013-2015 when Buxton and Sano were leading the minors.   

There was hype over Miranda - who had 1 really good season.  There was hype over Julien.  Then hype over Lewis.   Jenkins, Culpepper and Gonzalez have all shown better in the minors than almost any of the other players and Jenkins and Gonzalez at a younger age.  That is excluding Mendez as well.  Those 4 have some of the best hit tools, of the best prospects the Twins have had in the system since Arraez and before that????   Hit tool generally translates.  When you have 4 players with very good to elite hit tool,  the results will likely be very good.  

I can look at the whole picture.  I understand some of your frustrations,  but you are massively undervaluing the players that Falvey has drafted and that are at the MLB level - and giving no credit to the prospects in the system.   Just my opinion.  I will leave it there because it does appear we won't agree on this topic.  

Agree that the hit tool and getting on base in general are two of the best indicators that a young player will develop into a decent MLB player. The odds were way against so many of these types of players first shining bright, then crashing and burning. Someone else should have panned out just out of pure luck. That's why I'm hopeful that at least some part of the failure was with the coaching staff at the MLB level, which has now been replaced.

[bunsen82]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Agree that the hit tool and getting on base in general are two of the best indicators that a young player will develop into a decent MLB player. The odds were way against so many of these types of players first shining bright, then crashing and burning. Someone else should have panned out just out of pure luck. That's why I'm hopeful that at least some part of the failure was with the coaching staff at the MLB level, which has now been replaced.

There is some aspect of coaching,  but as I have said this is more of an odds game.  How do you increase your odds,  no different than some of the premises of Moneyball.  How do you increase your odds of hitting on a player,  or finding a player that is undervalued by the the rest of baseball.  I still think drafting higher generally is the best precursor to increasing your odds (ie. Walker and getting the 3rd pick this year).  It is really hard to find a top 20 mlb prospect with a pick lower than 10.  Culpepper is not a normal outcome generally for picking in the later half.   I think they are increasing their odds,  will more pan out - I think so but we won't know for a few years.  

[TwinsDr2021]

39 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I think they are increasing their odds,  will more pan out - I think so but we won't know for a few years. 

Couldn't you have said this for about the last 8 years? 

Lewis, Gordon, AK, Rooker, Larnach, Jeffers, Sabato, Celestino, Martin, Miranda, Lee, Julien, Wallner. Erod, didn't even include the 13th overall pick in 2019.

Results for this FO have not been good, Jeffers has been decent (as a pick pretty great) but still limited in really being a full time catcher, Wallner is 28 and still waiting to see if he is more than a power hitting platoon player, Larnach basically a replacement level player, AK replacement level before retiring, Gordon below replacement level, Martin replacement level singles hitter. Still hope on Lee, Erod, and a few others. 

When looking at each player individually the results don't look all that bad, but as a whole, it is bad and explains what has happened here in MN the last 4 years. There is hope in Keaschall, Erod, GG, Jenkins, Culpepper, Mendez, Lee/Lewis and possibly Rosario, but don't be fooled into thinking Keirsay, Fedko, Eeles or anybody else on the wrong side of age 26 is turning into the next Rooker, want to know why? Because it took a team that was going to win 50 games to give him a chance as a 28 year old (and that was after a AAA season in which his slash was .289/.395/.649/1.004 with 55 extra base hits)

 

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

Im not dealing with hype - im dealing with results

Jeffers 6 plus WAR in 3 years.  Lewis 4 War in 2 1/2 comple years with most of that coming in 2023. Wallner is 5 WAR in 3 years.   Of the players Lewis is the one that I get the most frustrated with because when he came up he showed he could take the ball the other way.  If he does that 10% of the time,  he will get so many more pitches inside the plate.  If he can cover the outside part better they will have to start coming more over the plate and trying to catch him inside.  Right now he is strictly an inside half of the plate player which can be easily pitched around.     He can be a 3-5 WAR player if he makes adjustments and remains healthy,  will he that is the question.  

I can keep a straight face with Rooker.  It proves my point really good players can struggle sometimes in the big leagues and it can take time.  Ehem Ehem Lee.  Now will Lee figure it out.  Personally yes, but I understand you haven't seen it yet (results oriented and all).  

I understand your points -  but it also is not acknowledging that the Twins have more and better prospects for positional players,  since maybe 2013-2015 when Buxton and Sano were leading the minors.   

There was hype over Miranda - who had 1 really good season.  There was hype over Julien.  Then hype over Lewis.   Jenkins, Culpepper and Gonzalez have all shown better in the minors than almost any of the other players and Jenkins and Gonzalez at a younger age.  That is excluding Mendez as well.  Those 4 have some of the best hit tools, of the best prospects the Twins have had in the system since Arraez and before that????   Hit tool generally translates.  When you have 4 players with very good to elite hit tool,  the results will likely be very good.  

I can look at the whole picture.  I understand some of your frustrations,  but you are massively undervaluing the players that Falvey has drafted and that are at the MLB level - and giving no credit to the prospects in the system.   Just my opinion.  I will leave it there because it does appear we won't agree on this topic.  

Whatever.

Rooker did not become  a mlb regular under the Twins. Sure, some players take longer.  But the Twins haven’t figured out that path as well  

Either Falvey has been a poor drafter or the Twins have been horrible at developing strong prospects.   I guess it could be a combo of the two.  But success has not been had to date.  Any claim that Lee or Lewis contradict that statement just cannot be justified at this point in time  

Maybe the next crop upcoming will be better on both fronts.  Let’s hope so. 
 

 

[saviking]

I really like Kyler Fedko for first base .. 

[bunsen82]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Couldn't you have said this for about the last 8 years? 

Lewis, Gordon, AK, Rooker, Larnach, Jeffers, Sabato, Celestino, Martin, Miranda, Lee, Julien, Wallner. Erod, didn't even include the 13th overall pick in 2019.

Results for this FO have not been good, Jeffers has been decent (as a pick pretty great) but still limited in really being a full time catcher, Wallner is 28 and still waiting to see if he is more than a power hitting platoon player, Larnach basically a replacement level player, AK replacement level before retiring, Gordon below replacement level, Martin replacement level singles hitter. Still hope on Lee, Erod, and a few others. 

When looking at each player individually the results don't look all that bad, but as a whole, it is bad and explains what has happened here in MN the last 4 years. There is hope in Keaschall, Erod, GG, Jenkins, Culpepper, Mendez, Lee/Lewis and possibly Rosario, but don't be fooled into thinking Keirsay, Fedko, Eeles or anybody else on the wrong side of age 26 is turning into the next Rooker, want to know why? Because it took a team that was going to win 50 games to give him a chance as a 28 year old (and that was after a AAA season in which his slash was .289/.395/.649/1.004 with 55 extra base hits)

 

AK, Gordon were all prior to them coming on.   In reality their picks they were in control of was 2017-2019 that could have affected the MLB team.  2020 was covid draft,  2021 we traded away our top 5 picks.  If you want to penalize them for that then fine.  

I think the players from 17-19 have done decent,  not great but those drafts weren't awful by any review of the drafts.  What they did not do is give us a great player.   See I can admit that.  Your best swing at a start was Lewis  and then we took a big swing on Cavaco that completely fell apart.   

Success depends on 3 things,  talent and more than anything hit tool, work ethic,  and health.  Luck can come into play but those are the 3.  AK had health setbacks.  Lewis appears to be more mental than anything while still being decent.  

What this shows is more the strategy the front office and the Twins have taken since 2017.  I would have rather they fully tanked early on in an Astros type tank that built up a war chest of prospects.  Just look at their picks though,  they took big swings and missed.  That is the odds part of this equation.  But look what happened,  3-4 of their big swings hit hall of famers.   Ultimately you need to swing big and hit on 2 players that are generational talents.  How do you do that?  You need some luck,  you need to draft high and you need to have a good system in place to assist them.  

I think the drafting strategy has been much more sound.  I take our top prospects now - against the entirety of your list above for our top prospects from 2017-2024 and say not only are they better prospects as a whole,  they will have much more impact on the MLB team.     Now will a couple flame out out.  Absolutely.  But not all of them will.   You have 3 players with the highest of ceilings in Jenkins, Culpepper and Rodriguez - you have 3 individuals whose ceilings are sky high that they can be all stars or if everything clicked in the same territory of the previous 3 in Tait, Winokur, Young (winokur and Young are athletic freaks).  There is ample solid prospects throughout the system.  A few will become solid players.    Mendez I like,  I still think adding 1-2 more studs by trading Ryan, Lopez, and maybe Buxton would be smart.    

[bunsen82]

On 12/30/2025 at 1:24 PM, Nashvilletwin said:

Whatever.

Rooker did not become  a mlb regular under the Twins. Sure, some players take longer.  But the Twins haven’t figured out that path as well  

Either Falvey has been a poor drafter or the Twins have been horrible at developing strong prospects.   I guess it could be a combo of the two.  But success has not been had to date.  Any claim that Lee or Lewis contradict that statement just cannot be justified at this point in time  

Maybe the next crop upcoming will be better on both fronts.  Let’s hope so. 
 

 

So they didn't figure out a Castro or in a smaller sample size a Clemens?  Lets not brush with a broad stroke something that isn't true.