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Posted

Baseball trade trees are fun. I’ve previously outlined two of the biggest in Twins history, one positive (A.J. Pierzynski) and one negative (Delmon Young). One transaction can set off a chain reaction that lasts decades. This isn’t a complete trade tree, but it is a continuous line that links Michael Cuddyer to Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson.

Cuddyer was drafted ninth overall in 1997 out of a Virginia high school. He was listed as a pitcher and shortstop. It took a while for the Twins to pony up enough money to convince him not to go to Florida State, as he eventually received the sixth-largest signing bonus in the draft at $1.8 million.

Cuddyer consistently ranked in Baseball America’s top 50 prospects, but his major league career did not start smoothly, as he bounced back and forth between the majors and minors from 2001 to 2003, between the ages of 22 and 24. He bounced around the diamond as well, playing five different positions in his first five years.

Finally, he hit his stride in 2006 as a 27-year-old, and he put together six seasons as a solid MLB regular, mostly playing first base and right field, with a 115 OPS+ and an All-Star nod to his name. The 2008 four-year extension that the Twins signed him to paid off, and he hit free agency as a 32-year-old ahead of 2011.

Now, this is where the tree would end, if it weren’t for free agent compensation. That year, Cuddyer was a Type A free agent, and after he turned down arbitration with the Twins, they were entitled to an additional draft pick. Cuddyer signed a contract with the Rockies, and the Twins were awarded the 32nd pick in the 2012 draft for their troubles.

That 32nd pick? They turned it into Jose Berrios.

Berrios was a high school pitcher out of Puerto Rico and signed for $1.6 million. He was a top-100 prospect from 2014 to 2016, when he made his messy, messy MLB debut. Across 14 starts in 2016 as a 22-year-old, he had an ERA that started with an 8, but he blossomed into one of the most dependable starters in baseball over the next five seasons in Minnesota.

Unlike with Cuddyer, the Twins had little interest in extending Berrios—at least for the price he wanted. At the trade deadline during the trainwreck 2021season, the Twins elected to flip Berrios to Toronto for two highly touted prospects. Berrios almost immediately signed a seven-year extension with the Blue Jays.

In return, the Twins received infielder Austin Martin and pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson. Baseball America immediately slotted Martin in as the team’s top prospect and the 19th-best prospect in baseball. Woods Richardson was a borderline top-100 prospect and was ranked sixth in the system.

Both Martin and Woods Richardson saw their stocks drop over the next few years, but both got their first extended runs in 2024. Martin had a poor showing, raising even more questions about his long-term outlook, but Woods Richardson emerged as a quality backend starter with roughly equivalent performance to Berrios, now 30, in Toronto.

Woods Richardson made the team out of spring training in 2025, but had a rockier start to his season than most had hoped. However, by the end of the season, he’d turned in a solid overall showing in 22 starts.

Martin did not make the team out of spring training and spent considerable time injured at Triple-A St. Paul. However, he may have salvaged his Twins career by being the only hitter to give a quality showing after the team’s historic trade deadline selloff.

Now, both Woods Richardson and Martin are projected to make the Opening Day lineup as a backend starter and a fourth outfielder. Although many expected more from them to this point in their careers, both appear to be useful assets on a team that is trying to get back on track.

If you’re a WAR person, by Baseball Reference’s count, Cuddyer was worth 12.8 rWAR for the Twins. Berrios accumulated 10.0, and Woods Richardson is at 4.0 thus far. Martin accumulated 0.7 in 50 2025 games, but he’s 0.3 wins below replacement for his career. That’s a total of 26.1 rWAR from this string, though, and it could continue to grow. Who knows, Woods Richardson might be traded to create room in the rotation and add another branch onto this tree.

And for the real sickos out there, there might even be another layer to this chain reaction, if you quint and use your imagination, though it is a sad one.

Kirby Puckett was forced into an early retirement before the 1996 season due to glaucoma. The Twins went 78-84 in his absence, tying the Athletics for the American League’s 5th-worst record. At that time, the draft order alternated between leagues, and in 1997, the American League drafted first, meaning that the Twins would either have pick 9 or 11.

The Twins had a worse record in 1995 than the Athletics, so they were awarded the higher pick. With just one more win, they would have picked 11th.

Now, I’m no soothsayer, and I can’t create an alternative history. But had Puckett not been forced into retirement, and the Twins instead had their aging superstar patrolling right field (instead of Matt Lawton, Roberto Kelly, Denny Hocking, and Ron Coomer), it’s not difficult to imagine the team winning at least one more game.

And had they won one more game, picking 11th instead of ninth, it’s possible that Cuddyer could have gone to the Athletics or the Cubs (Oakland’s pick that year was Chris Enochs, a college pitcher who never made the majors).

Obviously, this is desperately searching for an extra layer that can only be tenuously held together, but hey. I find it interesting. Either way, the Cuddyer-to-Berrios-to-Martin-and-Woods Richardson thread is a fun one to pull.


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Posted

Actually, the piece I am intrigued by is...

  • Cuddyer, drafted ninth, ranked in top 50 as a minor leaguer, bounced around a few positions after coming up before settling into being a regular at age 25; probably would have gotten ripped on for not developing quickly enough if Twins Daily had been around back then.. 
  • Lee, drafted eighth, ranked in top 50 as a minor league, bounced around a few positions after coming up before getting his first chance to start the season as a regular at age 25; has gotten ripped on for not developing quickly enough. 

They aren't perfect parallels, but there are similarities, enough to serve as a reminder that maturing into being even a solid major leaguer often doesn't happen overnight. 

   

Posted

The Twins really like the Young family.  He had a brother I think that played in the majors they tried to sign in free agency and the SS prospect we currently have who is related to Delmon as well.

Trade trees are fun.  And starting with how we got the initial player is important too.  That would be cool to see a waiver wire/ rule 5/ or minor league free agent turn into 100 WAR by being the beginning of a long trade tree after supplying years of surplus value.

Posted
18 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Actually, the piece I am intrigued by is...

  • Cuddyer, drafted ninth, ranked in top 50 as a minor leaguer, bounced around a few positions after coming up before settling into being a regular at age 25; probably would have gotten ripped on for not developing quickly enough if Twins Daily had been around back then.. 
  • Lee, drafted eighth, ranked in top 50 as a minor league, bounced around a few positions after coming up before getting his first chance to start the season as a regular at age 25; has gotten ripped on for not developing quickly enough. 

They aren't perfect parallels, but there are similarities, enough to serve as a reminder that maturing into being even a solid major leaguer often doesn't happen overnight. 

   

While TD wasn’t around, Cuddyer was ripped as a bust. Definitely a late bloomer. Cuddy still showed more then than Lee has to-date. Hopefully Lee is a late bloomer too, but looks more like a utility player. The hitting floor for SS is much higher now than it was then.

Posted

I was a cuddyer fan  , yes he was a late bloomer but every year he just kept getting better and better , loved his arm , played average defense at each position  , he kept hitting and finally won a batting title as a rocky ( yes it was coors field but contact does weird things  ) ...

Cuddy was a great teammate and clubhouse guy , always free to giving advice and instructions to young players ...

Killebrew is mr twin  , but had cuddyer stayed with the twins he definitely would have come close to killer ...

Cuddyer was great to the fans , top notch guy ...

Posted
10 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

While TD wasn’t around, Cuddyer was ripped as a bust. Definitely a late bloomer. Cuddy still showed more then than Lee has to-date. Hopefully Lee is a late bloomer too, but looks more like a utility player. The hitting floor for SS is much higher now than it was then.

Michael Cuddyer also had better skills. He had a higher sprint speed at the age of 36 than Lee showed at 24, and his plus arm allowed him to be a passable RF while Lee lacks that as well. 

That's why Cuddyer was allowed to move around the entire field to find a fit and Lee is an IF with a high potential of being a utility infielder. 

Still a chance Lee continues to develop real power and still becomes a valuable player so I'm not quitting on him, but all this is why I wanted the Twins to trade him in '23 for a playoff push. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

While TD wasn’t around, Cuddyer was ripped as a bust. Definitely a late bloomer. Cuddy still showed more then than Lee has to-date. Hopefully Lee is a late bloomer too, but looks more like a utility player. The hitting floor for SS is much higher now than it was then.

Cuddyer going into his age 25 season had played 84 games and yes had a .5 WAR, Lee has played 189 games and has a -1 WAR  (mostly defensive) .has 19 HR and 6 SB, Cuddyer after 199 games had 20 HR and 10SB. Is that really the definition of showing more? In his age 25 season he had a WAR of .1 and age 26 .7 WAR. 

For a site that loves the Twins minor league guys that are older than Lee (Keirsey, McCusker, Eeles, Fedko and others) it sure seems weird to to call a guy that played in the majors at age 23 a late bloomer. 

Yes I get Lee has to do more (much more) but lets not forget Cuddyer going into his age 27 season only had a WAR of 1.5 total

Posted
2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Actually, the piece I am intrigued by is...

  • Cuddyer, drafted ninth, ranked in top 50 as a minor leaguer, bounced around a few positions after coming up before settling into being a regular at age 25; probably would have gotten ripped on for not developing quickly enough if Twins Daily had been around back then.. 
  • Lee, drafted eighth, ranked in top 50 as a minor league, bounced around a few positions after coming up before getting his first chance to start the season as a regular at age 25; has gotten ripped on for not developing quickly enough. 

They aren't perfect parallels, but there are similarities, enough to serve as a reminder that maturing into being even a solid major leaguer often doesn't happen overnight. 

   

I like Lee.

Posted

Useful asset. Innings eater. The roster holders that are dead ends.
 

Good teams replace and upgrade them. Mediocre teams embrace them. That is why they stay mediocre. 

Posted

I think Martin showed...when healthy...that he had turned a corner in 2025. He raked at AAA and looked like a competent ML hitter in his 2 months with the Twins, and played MUCH BETTER defense than we have ever seen from him before. Can he take that defensive improvement to CF as well for occasional duty? I think he's finally a legitimate ML ballplayer. I think he can help the Twins in 2026, but I'm not sure about a long term fit. He still has to battle Roden for playing time in the LF...Roden can also see time in RF...and at some point Rodriguez, Jenkins, and Gonzalez should all 3 debut. 

SWR really saved the Twins butt in 2024 with his new arm slot, and better velocity. He actually got better and better as the season went along before running out of gas late in the season. 

Sims really disappointed me early in 2025, but he really finished the season strong, even after losing a bunch of weight due to his intestinal issues, embraced his new splitter, and IMO, still shows greater potential. I think he's a lock for the #4 spot and could possibly even push Ober for the #3 role, which is saying a lot if Ober is 100%. But that's how good Sims looked late in 2025.

Posted
6 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Actually, the piece I am intrigued by is...

  • Cuddyer, drafted ninth, ranked in top 50 as a minor leaguer, bounced around a few positions after coming up before settling into being a regular at age 25; probably would have gotten ripped on for not developing quickly enough if Twins Daily had been around back then.. 
  • Lee, drafted eighth, ranked in top 50 as a minor league, bounced around a few positions after coming up before getting his first chance to start the season as a regular at age 25; has gotten ripped on for not developing quickly enough. 

They aren't perfect parallels, but there are similarities, enough to serve as a reminder that maturing into being even a solid major leaguer often doesn't happen overnight. 

   

I agree in regard to Lee. We COULD mention Plouffe as a more minor example, but it digresses the conversation, so we'll just stick with the arguement as is.

I keep reminding people, to little avail, that not only did Lee move very quickly...maybe too quickly considering some of his current contact issues...but even though he debuted in 2024, he entered 2025 with 172 ML AB. The cutoff for rookie status is 140 AB. (I understand service time, but I'm looking at ON THE FIELD time). That means he entered 2025 only 22 ML AB above rookie status. Argue with me if you will, but he was barely above ROOKIE status entering the season.

One question about Lee was actual potential. While he didn't MASH, and his DBLs power was WAY too low, his 16 fingers in 487 AB was a nice surprise. And they weren't all cheap either. This would seem to indicate potential for more power, even of the DBLs variety, if he can just make better contact.

Defensively, he's average at best at SS. Much of playing SS is positioning, solid hands, off balance throws, and also just getting rid of the ball quickly, and with a solid throw. It's not all about athleticism. And while I don't have them handy, have personal doubts about many defensive metrics, and they've already been posted previously in different OP's, his defense at SS was better post Correa trade when he assumed the #1 spot. I believe he was about league average over those last 2 months.

I've watched Lee a TON since his arrival as a rookie in '24 and near rookie throughout '25. He's got good hands. He's got a good, quick transition of glove to hand. His arm is OK, not great. He can even make the off balance throw well. And at 25yo, he has room to improve everything he does at every base he might play at. But I have my doubts about a ML average SS when others in the system, such as K-Pepper and Houston offer up so much more athleticism, and even better arms. 

I still see a role for Lee as an ever day, or almost every day player. And I ignore defensive metrics at this base, and that base, for a young kid still settling in. I can see a future where he takes over 3B and Lewis moves to 1B, NOT as a demotion for Lewis, but simply as a result of getting the very best players playing daily. And I can  see Lee taking over 2B for Keaschall playing 1B daily as a highly productive player who simply isn't the normal SLUGGER you expect there. Carew, Joyner, Grace, Hernandez, Erstad, Bellinger, and Arraez all say HELLO along with others.

But I can also see a scenario that really intrigues me where Lee becomes a Super Utility INF. And I've stated this a dozen times now. With a little less speed, he could be a better Marwin Gonzalez, or a bigger, more powerful version of Castro where he plays almost daily across the entire INF due to injury and just natural days off. He could be a 500 AB player for a good team just filling in at ALL 4 spots due to injury or DH duty for the regulars, PH duties, and late game replacement. 

The future Twins have a lot to say about his future role. But getting rid of his obsession with "poor contact is a good" thing is the key to ANY future he has. The "Miranda disease" has to be the #1 thing he has to work on.

Posted

As long as I follow baseball, I will never forget Cuddyer's AB in Toronto in 2010 when he hit a ground ball to the shortstop in the 8th inning.

That was the biggest AB of the century for the Twins IMHO.

Morneau was on an MVP run, homered in five straight games twice that year already, and he never got that back.  Ever.

Posted
6 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Now if the two guys we acquired in a trade for the best SP we developed internally in a generation could somehow turn in to more than a back end SP and a 4th OF............................................................

The return for 1.5 years of Berrios sees about what one should expect.  So if the Twins had traded Berrios for a pitcher that had a career ERA+ of 101 that would have been a better trade?

Posted
20 hours ago, Brandon said:

The Twins really like the Young family.  He had a brother I think that played in the majors they tried to sign in free agency and the SS prospect we currently have who is related to Delmon as well.

Trade trees are fun.  And starting with how we got the initial player is important too.  That would be cool to see a waiver wire/ rule 5/ or minor league free agent turn into 100 WAR by being the beginning of a long trade tree after supplying years of surplus value.

Another ongoing tree starts with AJ Pierzynski and gets you to Mick Abel and Eduardo Tait. I wonder what that one has added up to? Or what it will add up to and if it will continue more branches.

Posted
1 hour ago, TNtwins85 said:

Another ongoing tree starts with AJ Pierzynski and gets you to Mick Abel and Eduardo Tait. I wonder what that one has added up to? Or what it will add up to and if it will continue more branches.

Wait another 10+ years to find out.  Tiat looks to be the type of player the Twins could sign to an 8/9 year contract when he comes up.

Posted
On 12/26/2025 at 6:50 PM, DocBauer said:

Defensively, he's average at best at SS. Much of playing SS is positioning, solid hands, off balance throws, and also just getting rid of the ball quickly, and with a solid throw. It's not all about athleticism. And while I don't have them handy, have personal doubts about many defensive metrics, and they've already been posted previously in different OP's, his defense at SS was better post Correa trade when he assumed the #1 spot. I believe he was about league average over those last 2 months.

I've watched Lee a TON since his arrival as a rookie in '24 and near rookie throughout '25. He's got good hands. He's got a good, quick transition of glove to hand. His arm is OK, not great. He can even make the off balance throw well. And at 25yo, he has room to improve everything he does at every base he might play at. But I have my doubts about a ML average SS when others in the system, such as K-Pepper and Houston offer up so much more athleticism, and even better arms. 

Lee is below average, at best, at SS. His SS defense was really not better post-Correa trade. I have seen good hands in the past but he booted a lot of balls in August and September.

It's actually remarkable that a player with tools as bad as Lee's (slow, poor range, weak arm) can fake it at SS in the majors. I don't expect him to be able to improve without increasing his foot speed and his throwing velocity.

Posted
35 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Lee is below average, at best, at SS. His SS defense was really not better post-Correa trade. I have seen good hands in the past but he booted a lot of balls in August and September.

It's actually remarkable that a player with tools as bad as Lee's (slow, poor range, weak arm) can fake it at SS in the majors. I don't expect him to be able to improve without increasing his foot speed and his throwing velocity.

Unfortunately with his body type and at his age he is likely to start getting slower, not faster. 

Posted

I remember when Cuddy walked the FO was ripped for not getting anything for him, but as this article points out, they did actually get something for him.  

Posted
On 12/27/2025 at 6:09 AM, old nurse said:

The return for 1.5 years of Berrios sees about what one should expect.  So if the Twins had traded Berrios for a pitcher that had a career ERA+ of 101 that would have been a better trade?

Actually they DID trade him for a pitcher with a career ERA+ of 101...............................................................................................

Posted
1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Actually they DID trade him for a pitcher with a career ERA+ of 101...............................................................................................

Yup, and to your posting a pitcher who has a league average ERA is a back of the rotation pitcher to be scorned 

Posted
On 12/31/2025 at 8:32 AM, old nurse said:

Yup, and to your posting a pitcher who has a league average ERA is a back of the rotation pitcher to be scorned 

so we traded the best SP we've developed in a generation and got nothing.  my point exactly.

Posted
6 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

so we traded the best SP we've developed in a generation and got nothing.  my point exactly.

So a league average ERA pitcher is nothing. If that is the way you want to see it, it is what it is. 

Posted
6 hours ago, old nurse said:

So a league average ERA pitcher is nothing. If that is the way you want to see it, it is what it is. 

Again,  is a league average pitcher the return you want for the best SP we've developed in a generation?

Posted
3 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Again,  is a league average pitcher the return you want for the best SP we've developed in a generation?

Is what you want in return for a pitcher is the about 40th pick in the draft?  In his years in Toronto, his ERA has been 4.09. So really, your not changing much

Posted
2 hours ago, old nurse said:

Is what you want in return for a pitcher is the about 40th pick in the draft?  In his years in Toronto, his ERA has been 4.09. So really, your not changing much

His performance in Toronto has little bearing on what his performance here might have been.  And, truth be told, his ERA in Toronto is almost EXACTLY the same as his ERA here.

Posted
5 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

His performance in Toronto has little bearing on what his performance here might have been.  And, truth be told, his ERA in Toronto is almost EXACTLY the same as his ERA here.

If what happened in Toronto has no bearing, you are complaining about trading a pitcher who would a free agent 3 years ago. You can’t say he would have signed here by your parameters.  

So you point out his ERA in Toronto is exactly the same as here, which is within hundredths of the same ERA as SWR. Berrios good years are better, his bad years are worse.  So if over a career the outcome averages out to be the same you have no argument.  

Posted
6 hours ago, old nurse said:

If what happened in Toronto has no bearing, you are complaining about trading a pitcher who would a free agent 3 years ago. You can’t say he would have signed here by your parameters.  

So you point out his ERA in Toronto is exactly the same as here, which is within hundredths of the same ERA as SWR. Berrios good years are better, his bad years are worse.  So if over a career the outcome averages out to be the same you have no argument.  

But one of the two has eaten up over three times as many innings since that trade as the other.  Completely changes the demands on the rest of the staff.  Sure you can say he wouldn't have signed here.  But, when he did sign there the first thought was that the team got a good deal.  We would have been wise to have made that same deal.  

Posted
5 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

But one of the two has eaten up over three times as many innings since that trade as the other.  Completely changes the demands on the rest of the staff.  Sure you can say he wouldn't have signed here.  But, when he did sign there the first thought was that the team got a good deal.  We would have been wise to have made that same deal.  

You can’t say he would have signed here. You are making a supposition. 

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