What to Make of the Minnesota Twins' 82-Win Projection from FanGraphs?

[DJL44]

18 hours ago, JADBP said:

Dave Roberts in LAD (even with WS wins) is not one, because the owner loads up the team with massive talent and he just keeps them all running in the same general direction and keeps out of the way. 

I agree, but that is probably going to put him in Cooperstown.

[JADBP]

20 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If his replacement is worth 10 wins, he should get millions of dollars. Millions. Because no player is worth that....

Lots of chatter here!  Yuup it’s hard to say changing the coaches is worth 10 wins!  But Rocco had lost the trust of the team and when that happens he HAS to go.  I am not saying that Shelton would be that much better but if he is different, that could lead to many wins.  There is plenty of talent in the team but it was misused and abused.   Pulling lefties in the 4th inning, moving players from position to position, poor training and preparation, crazy usage of RPs, and running Margot out there hoping for at l ast a single hit.  Rocco stubbornly refused to learn from his errors. Only when the handwriting was on the wall (he was getting fired) did he try something different (stealing bases).  So let’s all hope that Shelly is just DIFFERENT!!!

[DocBauer]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Do you believe the Twins can win 82 games? Or is Vegas right?

I know that talent on hand, talent set to debut this season, any kind of average bullpen rebuild, the 2026 Twins aren't the team we watched the last 2 months of 2025.

Every team begins the season with a list of a few things that need to go right whether that list is short or long is a different matter. The 2026 Twins do need a few things to go right. But the reality is a majority of the team are being paid about $7M or far less for 2026. So even a ridiculously small payroll of around $110M could still allow for a handful if smart, solid additions that could make a difference next season. For instance, a competent 1B, and a pair of solid,  veteran pen arms to help lead the way. 

So I do believe the Twins are capable of 80-85 wins in 2026 if a few things go right, (no major injuries, a couple guys take a step forward), and ownership gives the FO at least a little breathing room to make a few solid additions.

Doesn't mean they can't fall to pieces or underperform. That happens every season for some teams. But I can see reasons why this team could win between 80-85 next year, and that's why I object so strongly to the "blow it up and start over" mantra that I read in some articles and posts. I think that only happens if ownership forces the issue.

 

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I know that talent on hand, talent set to debut this season, any kind of average bullpen rebuild, the 2026 Twins aren't the team we watched the last 2 months of 2025.

Every team begins the season with a list of a few things that need to go right whether that list is short or long is a different matter. The 2026 Twins do need a few things to go right. But the reality is a majority of the team are being paid about $7M or far less for 2026. So even a ridiculously small payroll of around $110M could still allow for a handful if smart, solid additions that could make a difference next season. For instance, a competent 1B, and a pair of solid,  veteran pen arms to help lead the way. 

So I do believe the Twins are capable of 80-85 wins in 2026 if a few things go right, (no major injuries, a couple guys take a step forward), and ownership gives the FO at least a little breathing room to make a few solid additions.

Doesn't mean they can't fall to pieces or underperform. That happens every season for some teams. But I can see reasons why this team could win between 80-85 next year, and that's why I object so strongly to the "blow it up and start over" mantra that I read in some articles and posts. I think that only happens if ownership forces the issue.

 

Like your enthusiasm but without some significant changes 75 wins looks like a ceiling. I'm not a fan of gambling but it seems like Vegas always wins. They currently have the Twins at 71.5 wins. I want to believe you are correct but I watched the Twins last season and despite having far fewer injuries than any other team in their division (less than half as many as Detroit), the Twins won 70 games. I seem to remember a long winning streak in there as well. I don't think I have suggested blowing up the team but a minimum of 4-7 moves are needed. I'm not down on the Twins but I want change. I watch a ton of baseball and the product last year was the worst in baseball. I actually thought the Twins were more fun to watch after Baldelli was given word he would not return in mid August than they were earlier in the season.

[Twinsrtheworst]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure, but that has nothing to do with what I posted?

I was clarifying your confusion.. You might have mis-posted here.  Now I’m confused.

[Twinsrtheworst]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure, but that has nothing to do with what I posted?

I see that, You actually had quoted my post saying you were confused.  I was just clarifying.  I actually hadn’t commented on your post is all. 

[ashbury]

3 hours ago, RpR said:

They will win as many as they do; 

Did you know that all tautologies are tautologies?  You can look it up!

Might as well shut down the forums and cancel the off-season articles. We're not allowed to speculate, apparently.

Meanwhile the sports books will continue to accept money on both sides of the line they set, and will adjust that line to keep the money in balance and earn themselves some easy money with the juice.

 

[Sjoski]

On 12/5/2025 at 7:40 AM, CRF said:

Getting rid of Baldelli should give us a few more wins all by itself.

Once that needle starts moving, it might even hit 5 games.... 😀

[stringer bell]

I think Baldelli is neutral as far as team wins goes. I also expect that he'll get another job before Opening Day 2027. Where Rocco fell down was developing position players and Shelton will have to deal with that. Perhaps a couple of guys will break through, which would be essential in getting to 82 wins.

[dxpavelka]

On 12/5/2025 at 6:47 AM, Riverbrian said:

This team is closer than almost everybody on TD thinks or feels. If the Twins do this right we could be actually encouraged by the end of the year. I know that many feel I just said the dumbest sentence ever but this team isn't as far off as you think. 

Of course the off-season isn't over and there is plenty of time to get further away before 2026 starts and a nagging feeling that they won't do it right when the front office really needs to get it right. 

 

Might not take until the end of the year.

[dxpavelka]

The bastards.  Promoting positivity.  Don't they know?  We only have two options.  Minnesota nice.  And "We suck."  We can't handle anything else.  Make them stop.

[PseudoSABR]

On 12/5/2025 at 9:51 AM, Doc Lenz said:

 Vegas has o/u wins at 71.5. They are more reliable. 

You don't understand Vegas lines.  Their line is to encourage betting, not to be accurate or reliable. Sigh. 

[Doc Lenz]

1 minute ago, PseudoSABR said:

You don't understand Vegas lines.  Their line is to encourage betting, not to be accurate or reliable. Sigh. 

I do understand and they are within 1-5 games per team every year,

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

You don't understand Vegas lines.  

Wow. Ironic.

Books literally are in the business of being accurate. 

[Mike Sixel]

33 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

You don't understand Vegas lines.  Their line is to encourage betting, not to be accurate or reliable. Sigh. 

This is correct. 

[PseudoSABR]

1 hour ago, Doc Lenz said:

I do understand and they are within 1-5 games per team every year,

I'll take your word for it?????

[NotAboutWinning]

How do they project 82 wins for a team that literally has half a bullpen?

[Doc Lenz]

31 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

I'll take your word for it?????

My pocket book knows

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, NotAboutWinning said:

How do they project 82 wins for a team that literally has half a bullpen?

I mean, you can actually go read the answer to your question.....

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, you can actually go read the answer to your question.....

Most of the comments are questioning this, btw....I'm not saying I agree or not.....Steamer likes their hitters A LOT more than I do.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

This is correct. 

It's quite naive to think Vegas books put up lines they know are going to expose themselves to lopsided results. 

They could put the W/L on the 2026 Twins at 99. That would "encourage betting." They'd get all the action they could stand. But they won't. They'll put the over/under right about where their experts believe the Twins will end up, because they know that's the most reliable way to encourage wagers about equally on both sides of the line. 

Season W/L totals are a little more complicated than that, but that's the basis of it. They absolutely do NOT want a large majority of the wagers on one side or the other.

Books try very hard to stay out of the gambling business. 

[PseudoSABR]

Given the local and national narrative surrounding the Twins after the deadline firesale, and the failed ownership transfer, Vegas has to put the O/U on wins very low to get the populace to even consider the Over.  It's pretty simple honestly. 

[PseudoSABR]

1 hour ago, Doc Lenz said:

My pocket book knows

So that's a yes that you don't have any evidence for your assertion that Vegas is within 1-5 wins.  Thanks.

[D.C Twins]

On 12/5/2025 at 11:51 AM, Doc Lenz said:

 Vegas has o/u wins at 71.5. They are more reliable. 

....something about putting your money where your mouth is brings a lot of clarity!

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, PseudoSABR said:

Given the local and national narrative surrounding the Twins after the deadline firesale, and the failed ownership transfer, Vegas has to put the O/U on wins very low to get the populace to even consider the Over.  It's pretty simple honestly. 

So you taking over or under the 82 from fangraphs.... better yet... do you think the Twins win total will be closer to 82 or 71?

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, PseudoSABR said:

Given the local and national narrative surrounding the Twins after the deadline firesale, and the failed ownership transfer, Vegas has to put the O/U on wins very low to get the populace to even consider the Over.  It's pretty simple honestly. 

Well then here's your opportunity to nearly double your life savings. Take it all out and wager the over.

Easy peasy.

[PseudoSABR]

On 12/8/2025 at 7:30 PM, D.C Twins said:

So you taking over or under the 82 from fangraphs.... better yet... do you think the Twins win total will be closer to 82 or 71?

I don't have a horse in this race, and I don't bet.  My guess is somewhere in between, given the potential for pending moves. 

[PseudoSABR]

22 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Well then here's your opportunity to nearly double your life savings. Take it all out and wager the over.

Easy peasy.

I doubt you have the courage to bet the under.  Retirement has made you a mean, cynical person, my friend. 

[Mike Sixel]

13 minutes ago, PseudoSABR said:

I doubt you have the courage to bet the under.  Retirement has made you a mean, cynical person, my friend. 

Truth.