Analyzing the Unexpected Offensive Trade-Offs in Ryan Jeffers's 2025 Season

[Matthew Lenz]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Across 464 plate appearances, Ryan Jeffers posted the second-most productive season of his six-year career in 2025. His .752 OPS, 47 runs scored, 47 runs batted in, and wRC+ of 113 were each his second-best outputs. His 10.8% walk rate and 19.6% strikeout rate were not only career bests, but considerably better than his career averages. One area in which his offense seemed to regress, however, was in the power department.

After hitting a combined 35 home runs across 281 games in 2023 and 2024, the Twins' erstwhile backstop hit just nine in 2025. Despite a career high in doubles (26), this power outage led to a career-low isolated power (ISO) of .131, 65 points lower than his career mark entering the season. For those unfamiliar with it, ISO measures a player’s raw power, by subtracting their batting average from their slugging average to find the number of extra bases they accrue per at-bat. The league's average ISO this year was .159. Given his doubles output, you might think Jeffers was just the victim of some bad luck, but his Savant profile tells a different story.

Despite his hard-hit rate falling in the 44th percentile for the league, his mark of 42.1% was above his career average—but that didn't translate to a strong quality of contact, as evidenced by a career-low 6.3% barrel rate. At the macro level, Jeffers seemingly adjusted his approach at the plate, but what implications did that have on the micro level? Can Jeffers’s loss of power be attributed to more hesitant swing decisions, which then impacted the timing and quality of contact on the ball? Let's keep diving.

One significant shift in his swing decisions in 2025, compared to previous seasons, was swinging at pitches in the upper and inner halves of the zone. For many hitters, those zones are their bread and butter. It typically leads to more pull-side power, which leads to more home runs.

Additionally, Jeffers stood deeper in the box and further away from home plate, while also adopting a more open stance. It stands to reason that Jeffers adjusted his mental and physical approach to the plate in an attempt to target inside pitches and create more power. However, that reasoning falls apart quickly when you look at the batted-ball data.

 

Jeffers pulled the ball less in 2025 and went to the opposite field more—not an ideal outcome when setting your sights on the inner part of the zone. His bat speed has dropped in each of the last two seasons, from 73.9 mph in 2023 to 72.3 mph in 2025. In 2023, he ranked in the 78th percentile, whereas in 2025, he's merely average. In all, his approach at the plate led to the bat meeting the ball deeper in the zone. It led to a decrease in his quality of contact, and ultimately to fewer pull-side air outcomes in 2025.

It shouldn't be overlooked that Jeffers performed 13% better than the average hitter in 2025. While he didn't provide the power we’re accustomed to, he was still a productive hitter—and maybe not as productive as he could have been, given the imperfect translation from approach to results. In 2026, he could return to his previous approach, or (if he believes he can better convert what he did at bat from plan to action) he could double down on this attack and try to tap all the way into all that latent pop.

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Sometimes a player needs to hit the ball to the opposite field to advance a runner or take advantage of what the pitcher is throwing to the hitter or to hit the baseball into the hole left by a first baseman holding a runner at first. I would take Jeffers numbers over Wallner's  solo home run power numbers.

[Old Crow]

I think this would have confused Rod Carew , Tony Oliva, et.al.  See ball, hit ball talk about over thinking.

[terrydactyls]

Trade the bum!

[Doctor Gast]

I'm completely satisfied with Jeffers's offense; for a catcher, he's above average. I wouldn't get too technical about his hitting & miss what really counts.

[The Great Hambino]

I'd like to see him swing at more than 56% of middle-middle pitches.  That could maybe help his power - and overall -  numbers without any swing adjustments

[DJL44]

54 minutes ago, Old Crow said:

I think this would have confused Rod Carew , Tony Oliva, et.al.  See ball, hit ball talk about over thinking.

I think you vastly underestimate what Oliva and Carew understand about hitting.

[tony&rodney]

Ryan Jeffers, in sum (whether from data or just the eye), is an above average catcher. His value to the Twins should be apparent to all, specifically because the organization is thin at the position. There is no doubt in my mind that a few teams will be asking about Jeffers. The front office should listen. Before any consideration of moving Jeffers via trade, the Twins will need to acquire someone who they believe can handle backstop duties. The team also needs to add a veteran as well unless Jeffers is kept for another year. While there have been comments that trading good players for a part time catcher is not a good use of player assets, the Twins cannot limp along with sub par catchers next year as they did the last two months of this year. 

[Otaknam]

1 hour ago, Old Crow said:

I think this would have confused Rod Carew , Tony Oliva, et.al.  See ball, hit ball talk about over thinking.

Agree. While some analytics are clearly helpful, overthinking everything with arcane analytics is an issue that infects baseball. Baldelli’s seemed to follow analytics for every in game decision. Just do what the computer algorithm says, no thinking or intuition required.

By the way, I think it’s time to remove the Baldelli survey from this website. 

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, Old Crow said:

I think this would have confused Rod Carew , Tony Oliva, et.al.  See ball, hit ball talk about over thinking.

I think Rod Carew would have been all over modern analytics. This was a guy who adjusted his batting stance based on who he was facing on the mound, and very clearly thought a lot about what he was doing in the batter's box. Don't know about Oliva?

Analytics like this can be really helpful for players that can incorporate it into their work. Jeffers has always seemed interested. The trick is always in translating the information into something that's actionable for the player. But that's no different than any of the old-school methods of improving a player's swing or results at the plate: what can the coach tell them that they can use to improve?

For some guys, seeing the data helps them commit to an adjustment. Understanding the why makes it easier to try something different. Other might need a different approach, but that can still be based in data and information rather than being purely about vibes.

[AKTwinsFan]

If he was on a Cal Raleigh schedule, meaning 4-5 games and one day off then he'd have had an even better season. I just didnt get Roccos justification to have the catcher(s) only catch one day rotations. He's obviously our best bet at the everyday catcher. With Gasper as backup. If we extend him for 3-4 years it'll work with the timeline of Tait. 

[JD-TWINS]

6 minutes ago, AKTwinsFan said:

If he was on a Cal Raleigh schedule, meaning 4-5 games and one day off then he'd have had an even better season. I just didnt get Roccos justification to have the catcher(s) only catch one day rotations. He's obviously our best bet at the everyday catcher. With Gasper as backup. If we extend him for 3-4 years it'll work with the timeline of Tait. 

They signed a Free Agent Catcher and paid him $10M/year (3 years) so both he & Jeffers could stay fresh and to minimize injury & performance drops due to fatigue. The FA, Vazquez, failed to HIT to his career norms but he was good/better behind the plate. The Manager manages the players/resources he has in front of him……his limited Catching duties allowed Jeffers to be in the line-up as DH as well.

[JD-TWINS]

His offense is his upside with the Club. He’s fine at the plate - always up & down, but that just seems to be common across most rosters. His strike out & walk rates are pretty good!

I keep promoting the idea that could get him 550 AB’s. Play him behind the plate 18 starts per year - 3 times per month……. just enough to stay sharp & viable. He’s the 3rd Catcher that provides depth & flexibility.

He gets 100 plus starts at 1B and 18 at Catcher and 18 as DH.

They sign a FA Catcher and have Pereda catch 50-60 games.

[LambchoP]

He's our best bet at catcher until Tait and the kid we got for Paddack are ready in a few years. Extend Jeffers a few more years and sign a legit backup. Gasper should be nowhere near a major league field.

[Cris E]

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

They signed a Free Agent Catcher and paid him $10M/year (3 years) so both he & Jeffers could stay fresh and to minimize injury & performance drops due to fatigue. The FA, Vazquez, failed to HIT to his career norms but he was good/better behind the plate. The Manager manages the players/resources he has in front of him……his limited Catching duties allowed Jeffers to be in the line-up as DH as well.

This is a big deal, especially given this organization's lack of catching depth.  With Jeffers' appearances behind the plate being managed tightly the team had an incredibly long run of not needing a third catcher. Both stayed healthy, and if Vasquez had managed to hit anywhere near his career norms it would have been heralded as a triumph. Normal catchers get hurt all the time, and the success at keeping ours in the lineup so effectively for years should have been appreciated while watching Mickey Gasper filling in like an NHL Third Goalie.

[DocBauer]

I read an article early in the season...or was it the offseason?...that Jeffers was in the top 5 of OPS for catchers in all of MLB since his debut in 2020. I don't recall the breakdown as to the minimum number of AB per season. But a truly good, productive offensive catcher is really hard to find.

I understand that defensive metrics show Jeffers as below Vazquez over the past 3yrs. But I also understand that various defensive metrics available are also in direct conflict with one another at times. And I think it's harder for the catcher position than any other spot because it's a spot where you can't accurately quantify what they do with the staff, and how they work with them to produce quality in the most important part of their game: pitching results.

Last I looked, Jeffers had a slightly better team ERA over Vazquez over the past 3yrs. Considering ERA is a weird stat that is limited in total context, I don't know that it makes much of a difference. 

Over the past 3yrs, the CS% between Jeffers and Vazquez is 20% and 20.4%. Almost identical.

I'm not attempting to pump up Jeffers or dismiss Vazquez. I'm only stating that Vazquez has this reputation as being a really good defensive catcher and Jeffers is supposed to be a below average defensive catcher. But splitting time almost 50/50 over the past 3yrs, they are almost dead even on pitchers ERA and CS%. So while Vazquez might have fewer passed balls, is Jeffers really a poorer receiver than Vazquez?

You either like or don't like Jeffers as a receiver. I believe he's solid, but not great. But I think he calls a good game and has the trust of his pitchers. His bat isn’t isn't awesome, but it's damn good. Considering his strong build and limited games started the past 3yrs, I wonder how more productive he might be catching 60-65% of the games with another 10-15% as a DH against LHP?

Sorry, I just don't trust Winkel as a ML catcher considering poor hitting and a limited arm. Cardenas seems to have the better arm, and has almost always provided a better AVG and OB% in MILB. I trust his potential much more than Winkel, but I don't believe he's ready for MLB just yet. I think he's a few more months of AAA experience to reach the ML level and be a Drew Butera type. 

Unless ownership just orders some sort of massive cut, Jeffers will be the #1 catcher for 2026. And he should be. The question, IMO, is will there be enough in payroll to add a decent, solid, veteran catcher to back up Jeffers and work with the current staff AND the young arms. Maybe even for some potential FA signings and FA fliers in the pen.

Trusting nothing but MILB options or cheap FA options to lead a staff, with a collection of young arms as well, would be a malfeasance of how to handle any sort of re-tool or complete re-build.

I'd be in complete favor of a Jeffers extension for an additional 2yrs in order to give top prospects like Taint and Jimenez, and Diaw, and lower prospects like Cardenas to get ready to take over. And MAYBE 2 and $20M gets it done. 

I just don't know that Jeffers agent agrees with that. Boras will tell him that as a 29yo entering FA in 2027 that he can get 4-5yrs at $10M per. Maybe more. Would he buy in to 2 and $20 and enter the FA market after that as a 31yo? Well, Vazquez got 3 and $30M. So that's really IFFY.

But this might be a situation where you willingly play out a final season and let a player potentially walk for the good of your 2026 team. Of course, you OFFER the 2yr extension. You always do. You might be surprised. But I think you run with Jeffers and re-examine 2027 when it comes.

[Doctor Wu]

19 hours ago, AKTwinsFan said:

If we extend him for 3-4 years it'll work with the timeline of Tait. 

I'm still hoping that it doesn't take Tait that long to be ready for MLB.

[Thumbs Down Guy]

23 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I ...

DocBauer, I really enjoy and look forward to your posts. Seems like they are always well thought out and devoid of sensationalism. Will be scanning other articles to see what you have to say.