Predicting the Minnesota Twins Lineup One Year From Now

[RpR]

13 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Do you think Lewis's 75th percentile outcome for 2026 is closer to his 2025 season production or his 2023 season production?

I tend to think he can find a way to get back closer to what he was in 2023 with a full/healthy offseason. But if you truly believe the 2025 version IS what Royce is, then so be it.

His attitude pretty much tells me , he is now, what he is, although having Baldelli's version of head coach is a possible part of that problem.

[USAFChief]

26 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

 

 It appears that Lee is having a pretty good year.

Look closer.

He's not. .246/.295/.386

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Look closer.

He's not. .246/.295/.386

 

 

Small sample of what I will present, but since the end of July (or at least the past month, since 7/26/25) he is hitting 242/314/453. That's a wRC+ of 112.

I HAVE to think knowing he'll be at SS each day hasn't hurt. And yes it's a small sample, but it's POSSIBLE there is something there. I hope it does continue.

[Woof Bronzer]

37 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

It appears that Lee is having a pretty good year.

I'd say it appears that the Minnesota Twins are having a terrible year if a guy like Lee is anywhere near the team leaderboard.  And stating that he's 7th on THIS team in OPS and 6th in OBP as evidence of a "good year" is...interesting...

Try comparing Lee to, say, the Blue Jays roster.  Would you still say he's having a "pretty good year"?

I'm not saying give up on Lee, not in the least.  But facts are important; he's been bad this year, no getting around it.  (Though trending upward, at least.)    

[RpR]

I hope they bring the ENTIRE current Major league team, including Julien, plus Bride and Miranda to Spring Training and keep the best ALL SEASON in the year of our Lord TwoThousand and TwentySix.

[DJL44]

3 hours ago, HrbieFan said:

And why not give Sabato a 30 game audition?

Because his AAA audition has not gone well.

[terrydactyls]

20 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Look closer.

He's not. .246/.295/.386

 

 

Got my stats from mlb.com.  Argue with them.

[Woof Bronzer]

Just now, terrydactyls said:

Got my stats from mlb.com.  Argue with them.

The argument is that those numbers are bad.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, RpR said:

I hope they bring the ENTIRE current Major league team, including Julien, plus Bride and Miranda to Spring Training and keep the best ALL SEASON in the year of our Lord TwoThousand and TwentySix.

I don't see any way that any of the names you actually listed are still with the team after this season

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Got my stats from mlb.com.  Argue with them.

The argument is pretty easy. You're just giving team ranks on the leftovers from a team that was so bad it got blown up. If you expand the sample size beyond "awful team with an awful offense" he no longer looks like he's been anywhere near good this year. When you compare him to his entire peer group he's been bad. 24% worse than the average major league hitter is not a good hitter. He hasn't been good. He's just been less bad than the awful hitters left around him, some of which have nearly 400 fewer PAs than him and you're comparing counting stats against.

[AKTwinsFan]

I say if there's a chance at us getting the #1 or top 3 pick next years draft. We should also look into either extending Vaskey at a much lower rate, maybe $10 for 2 years. Then we can work in Tait the following season. We could also look to the open market and a cheap veteran option like Maldonado. 

[DJL44]

58 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

There has been a lot of criticism of Brooks Lee on TD.  Especially about his sub-par offensive numbers.  So this morning, I went to mlb.com and looked at statistics for the Minnesota Twins to see how Lee stacks up with the remaining Twins.

 Category    Lee's Ranking

  ABs               2

  AVG               4

   RBIs               2

    HR                5

    BB                 5

     K                   5

    OPS                7

    OBP                6

 It appears that Lee is having a pretty good year.

The problem is you're comparing him to the other Twins, who are one of the worst offenses in baseball.

[Patzky]

9 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I don't see any way that any of the names you actually listed are still with the team after this season

Then clarity will come.

[Patzky]

4 minutes ago, AKTwinsFan said:

I say if there's a chance at us getting the #1 or top 3 pick next years draft. We should also look into either extending Vaskey at a much lower rate, maybe $10 for 2 years. Then we can work in Tait the following season. We could also look to the open market and a cheap veteran option like Maldonado. 

Jeffers is worn out and ineffective offensively and defensively at this point. Vazquez has been very underappreciated because of his poor batting... But if we get someone else for next year he had best be prepared to catch 82 games.

[DJL44]

Both C and 1B are wide open for the foreseeable future. The Twins have cash available. They need to extend Jeffers this offseason. 3 years, $40M could get it done.

I wouldn't give Vazquez more than $1M to return.

[USAFChief]

30 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

Got my stats from mlb.com.  Argue with them.

Look closer 

[mluebker]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

3 hours ago, mluebker said:

No spot for Kody Clemens?

I like him off the bench.

Fair enough. As long as they don’t let him go, then replace him with another DFA or cheap free agent who can’t do the role-playing gig. 

I’ve never liked the idea that you let a guy who’s been relatively successful go, just to try to replace him with a guy who has similar stats, but costs a little less.

I’m thinking guys like Carlos Santana from last year or Michael A. Taylor the year before. Seems to me that even a low-payroll team like the Twins could afford to keep that kind of reliability around.

[LA Vikes Fan]

41 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Look closer.

He's not. .246/.295/.386

 

 

I Looked to see what the "average" MLB numbers were and got this - .246/.324/.404 (.728) so you're right, Lee is a below average hitter overall right now. I do think we have to note that he is above average for the last 30 games in OBP and SLG and his average has been coming up recently. This coincides with him moving to his comfortable, preferred position at SS every day so that correlation may in fact be causation. I still have hope for Lee and his OAA over the last 25 games is a positive at SS. I think he's the every day SS next year.  

I went down the rabbit hole and looked at our guys who have been every day players this year and/or likely will or could be so next year absent a trade to see how the rank against average. It was interesting and changed my thinking a little bit. 

Above average in all categories - Buxton, Jeffers, Keashall (SSS). 

Above average in some, below in others - Wallner (good OBP,SLG,OPS, very bad BA).

Average - Larnach almost exactly in everything -  .243/.318/.417 (.725).

Below average in pretty much everything - Clemens (Way below average in BA and OBP, above in SLG, below in OPS at .717), with Lewis, Martin, Julien, Outman, and of course Vasquez below in everything, sometimes way below.  

Leads me to two conclusions, one of which we all already knew, (1) Larnach isn't so bad and may need to stick around at 1B over Clemens or DH, and (2) there's lots of room for new guys. 

[mluebker]

3 hours ago, Bodie said:

So we are supposed to be looking forward to our undisputed number one prospect, a center fielder, making it in LF????

Those sorts of hopes and dreams have the unmistakable stink of Falvey, with an added dash of Rocco tactical idiocy!

The same sort of genius move that the Twins made when they signed a star shortstop with bad legs and tried to move their shortstop-of-the-future with bad legs to 3B. Instead of paying a $30 million shortstop to sit on the IL, they could have had a shortstop getting paid a fraction of that to sit on the IL.

But hey, with Falvey anybody can play any position.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

Within the next year, Minnesota is expected to see one of the largest waves of homegrown talent the franchise has had since the early 2000s. ...

Catcher: TBD...

First Base: <Insert Veteran First Baseman Name>

 

I stopped reading here, thanks.

[Doctor Gast]

Besides Buxton defensively, we are hurting. Catching is a mess, we'll end up with FA another Vazquez or 2 to fill the void there. I love Keaschall's bat, but he's not a 2Bman, I'd play him more 1B/ DH this season & in '26 put him in LF. IDK how soon Jenkins or K Culpepper are ready for MLB & if Emma is physically dependable. It'd be a very bad look to trade Lewis, but his complaining (which I completely understand) might not sit well with management. I'd give Lewis a shot at 1B as well. We don't know if Lopez or Ryan will be around. I didn't trust Falvey with this last sell-off & don't trust him for the next or rebuild. With Falvey & Co. there's no hope.

[LA Vikes Fan]

This is an interesting thought experiment. 1B is a black hole. We NEED to find one internally from Wallner, Larnach, and Keaschall. All are less $$ than a free agent and all are frankly better hitters than a $5-$8m free agent. I put Larnach there and leave Keaschall at 2B, but I could see an argument to put Keaschall at 1B and someone from the Martin, Culpepper, and Eeles group at 2B. Castro coming back as a low cost 4 day a week UTl is intriguing but I didn't put that in. That's what he's good at and he has stunk since joining the Cubs with a .496 OPS so his market will not be as robust as we thought. Julien is gone, probably by off season release so he doesn't take up a 40 man spot. Same for Miranda.   

Here's where I think we are mid-season next year:

1B - Larnach (or Keaschall)

2B - Keaschall (or Culpepper)

SS - Lee

3B - Lewis

LF - Jenkins

CF - Buxton

RF - Fedko/Gabriel Gonzalez

DH/OF - Wallner

Bench - Clemens, Outman or Martin(need a backup CF), Culpepper, Cardenas or veteran back up C (could even be Vasquez again).

Batting Order - Keaschall, Buxton, Wallner, Jeffers/Lewis, Lee, Lewis/Jeffers, Larnach, Fedko, Jenkins (or hit Jenkins 1 and move everyone else back 1). The 2023 Lewis hits 4th, the 2025 Lewis hits 6th or is gone for Culpepper. I'm hoping for the 2023 version to reappear. 

Emma would be great but he will be hurt. Gabriel Gonazalez may be ahead of Fedko, so one is in RF, the other in AAA. 

[In My La Z boy]

13 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I Looked to see what the "average" MLB numbers were and got this - .246/.324/.404 (.728) so you're right, Lee is a below average hitter overall right now. I do think we have to note that he is above average for the last 30 games in OBP and SLG and his average has been coming up recently. This coincides with him moving to his comfortable, preferred position at SS every day so that correlation may in fact be causation. I still have hope for Lee and his OAA over the last 25 games is a positive at SS. I think he's the every day SS next year.  

I went down the rabbit hole and looked at our guys who have been every day players this year and/or likely will or could be so next year absent a trade to see how the rank against average. It was interesting and changed my thinking a little bit. 

Above average in all categories - Buxton, Jeffers, Keashall (SSS). 

Above average in some, below in others - Wallner (good OBP,SLG,OPS, very bad BA).

Average - Larnach almost exactly in everything -  .243/.318/.417 (.725).

Below average in pretty much everything - Clemens (Way below average in BA and OBP, above in SLG, below in OPS at .717), with Lewis, Martin, Julien, Outman, and of course Vasquez below in everything, sometimes way below.  

Leads me to two conclusions, one of which we all already knew, (1) Larnach isn't so bad and may need to stick around at 1B over Clemens or DH, and (2) there's lots of room for new guys. 

I agree on Lee. I think he's learned a lot and improves from here. It will be interesting to see if he gets pushed by Culpepper in the spring. I also look for continued improvement from Larnach & agree on moving him to 1st. If we keep our starters this winter I think we can compete in '26. Guys like Festa & Prielipp could be the back end of next years pen. Banking on big time improvement from Lewis & Wallner and another year like this one for Byron, and maybe we have a chance?

[NYCTK]

28 minutes ago, mluebker said:

I’ve never liked the idea that you let a guy who’s been relatively successful go, just to try to replace him with a guy who has similar stats, but costs a little less.

Kody Clemens has hit .187 / .252 / .369 in his last 219 PAs. He is a career .659 OPS guy for a reason. 

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, Bodie said:

You don't take fillet mingon and turn it into hamburger.  And then use said hamburger in hamburger helper!

The butcher may have sold you a slice of rump roast. 

[Patzky]

41 minutes ago, mluebker said:

Fair enough. As long as they don’t let him go, then replace him with another DFA or cheap free agent who can’t do the role-playing gig. 

I’ve never liked the idea that you let a guy who’s been relatively successful go, just to try to replace him with a guy who has similar stats, but costs a little less.

I’m thinking guys like Carlos Santana from last year or Michael A. Taylor the year before. Seems to me that even a low-payroll team like the Twins could afford to keep that kind of reliability around.

Donnie Barrels.

[DJL44]

I would like to see how a fully healed Keaschall defends. Right now, his arm might not be good enough for 2B.

[Patzky]

28 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

This is an interesting thought experiment. 1B is a black hole. We NEED to find one internally from Wallner, Larnach, and Keaschall. All are less $$ than a free agent and all are frankly better hitters than a $5-$8m free agent. I put Larnach there and leave Keaschall at 2B, but I could see an argument to put Keaschall at 1B and someone from the Martin, Culpepper, and Eeles group at 2B. Castro coming back as a low cost 4 day a week UTl is intriguing but I didn't put that in. That's what he's good at and he has stunk since joining the Cubs with a .496 OPS so his market will not be as robust as we thought. Julien is gone, probably by off season release so he doesn't take up a 40 man spot. Same for Miranda.   

Here's where I think we are mid-season next year:

1B - Larnach (or Keaschall)

2B - Keaschall (or Culpepper)

SS - Lee

3B - Lewis

LF - Jenkins

CF - Buxton

RF - Fedko/Gabriel Gonzalez

DH/OF - Wallner

Bench - Clemens, Outman or Martin(need a backup CF), Culpepper, Cardenas or veteran back up C (could even be Vasquez again).

Batting Order - Keaschall, Buxton, Wallner, Jeffers/Lewis, Lee, Lewis/Jeffers, Larnach, Fedko, Jenkins (or hit Jenkins 1 and move everyone else back 1). The 2023 Lewis hits 4th, the 2025 Lewis hits 6th or is gone for Culpepper. I'm hoping for the 2023 version to reappear. 

Emma would be great but he will be hurt. Gabriel Gonazalez may be ahead of Fedko, so one is in RF, the other in AAA. 

If you want reunions I love Willi but to be fair he is playing half as much in Chicago as he did here. For 7 million we can have Solano back 🥴 And Bader would be a useful part .

[jmlease1]

I kind of doubt Jeffers will be flipped at the deadline next season; despite being a quality bat that can still catch effectively, it doesn't sound like there was a great market for him this year so it's unlikely there will be much market for him next season as a rental. So what's the point of flipping him?

Right now I'd say it's more likely we see Gonzalez in the OF at this time next season than Emma, just because Rodriguez can't seem to stay on the field. That said, I wouldn't be sad if GG has earned a call-up because of his play.

We'll see whether Culpepper is starting in MLB this time next season; I'm guessing he might not. He's gotten a little worn down in his first full professional season, and with a lockout on the horizon for 2027 the Cheaply and Poorly Run Twins might look to leave him in AAA rather than start the clock. Regardless, I think Lewis will be at 3B unless he too is hurt; seems unlikely to be traded (right now it's sell low) unless it's part of more payroll reductions mandated by the Pohlads. (he won't make that much, but anyone with a salary above league minimum could be in doubt with this ownership and their desire to ensure an operating profit meeting their requirements)

1B is a real hole. I think they see Sabato more like McCusker: Quad A, not MLB. They may be right. 2B will probably be Keaschall; his defense needs work, but he missed so much time that it shouldn't be a surprise. He's got the skills to well there and probably just needs to the reps.

Twins lineup will need several experienced players to find their form/show improvement and a couple of rookies to hit the ground running in order to have a quality offense next season. It seems unlikely they'll add anyone significant; it'll probably be another Ty France type out of the bargain bin if anyone.

Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Keaschall, Jenkins could form the basis for a good offense...but there's plenty of uncertainty there, and if any of them falter you're needing something significant from Jeffers, Lee, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Fedko, or Culpepper...the odds aren't really great.

Hope I'm wrong. Hope Keaschall & Jenkins are great, Buxton is healthy, Wallner regresses back to his mean, and Lewis finds his hitting stroke again. Hope Rodriguez or Gonzalez is ready to come up and hit the cover off the ball. But betting on hope for a Twins fan hasn't worked too well in the past 30 years.

[DJL44]

Interesting possible free agents

1B - Luis Arraez - is he actually going to get paid or is he going to be valued like Ty France?

1B - Miguel Andujar - could be that veteran pickup who gets dealt at the deadline

SS - Isaiah Kiner-Falefa - the young pitchers could use a strong defense behind them.