Trade deadline day thread

[Twodogs]

If the Pohlads sold more quickly they wouldn't owe any of the salaries any more.

[bunsen82]

Trade calculator is up - 

Padres -  Miller 30.4,  JP Sear 12.4    42.8 total -  for Athletics - Baez 1.4, Nunez   2, Nett 2.8,  De Vries 50.5.  All the value is tied to De Vries.   There is a lot more years of control with both players and it sounds like Padres want to make Miller a starting Pitcher.   

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, bunsen82 said:

Ok then how about for 2026,  or do you want to piss in those cheerios too LOL.   Abel has higher upside and more likelihood of becoming a solid starter than Matthews.  If both hit we are in great shape for the future.   

The post I responded to was "September," not 2026.

But for the record if Abel is the Twins 3rd best starter in 2026 we're going to be pretty bad.

As for "upside" and "likelihood of becoming a solid starter" do some research and let me know where Matthews was rated as a prospect. I know youre big on those ratings. 

[TheLeviathan]

Would anyone have rather done Duran for De Vries?  Not sure we have the equivalent of Sears.

[nicksaviking]

4 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

He had prospect shine because the Phillies continued to push him hard up at each level.  He was always way younger than the competition.   To me his stats in AAA show a player that has the potential to be a very good long term starter in the majors.   His walk numbers aren't that far off from Sonny Gray historical numbers.  If we could get a sonny Gray everyone would be thrilled.  

Sonny Gray has a MiLB career 3.1 BB/9 and MLB career 2.9 BB/9. He never approached the poor numbers Abel had. 

Again, hopefully he figured something out and this year is the new normal, I just think it's rare that it happens. More often than not these guys end up in the pen.

[LewFordLives]

If you believe WAR is worth approximately $8 million, and Correa can reasonably be expected to put up 3 WAR per season, that makes his value approximately $25 million per year. I know some people hate this method, and I understand the arguments for and against. My point is, I think you can make a strong case that he's worth much more than what the Astros apparently value him at.  I understand the Twins would have to eat part of the contract, but $50 million, no way.

[Patzky]

3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

The post I responded to was "September," not 2026.

But for the record if Abel is the Twins 3rd best starter in 2026 we're going to be pretty bad.

As for "upside" and "likelihood of becoming a solid starter" do some research and let me know where Matthews was rated as a prospect. I know youre big on those ratings. 

Yeah next year will be a whole nother animal. Who knows maybe we go out and sign DeScalfani..

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, Patzky said:

Yeah next year will be a whole nother animal. Who knows maybe we go out and *sign DeScalfani..

*Trade for

[Patzky]

13 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Ok then how about for 2026,  or do you want to piss in those cheerios too LOL.   Abel has higher upside and more likelihood of becoming a solid starter than Matthews.  If both hit we are in great shape for the future.   

A lot of TC fans highly regard our players until they actually play..

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

If you believe WAR is worth approximately $8 million, and Correa can reasonably be expected to put up 3 WAR per season, that makes his value approximately $25 million per year. I know some people hate this method, and I understand the arguments for and against. My point is, I think you can make a strong case that he's worth much more than what the Astros apparently value him at.  I understand the Twins would have to eat part of the contract, but $50 million, no way.

I also think Correa is a pretty strong bounce back candidate. 

He has lost range but he is still a very dependable SS. And I think he's a better hitter than he's shown this year.

Get out from under the entire contract? Sure. But that's not happening and it makes zero sense to pay him to play for someone else.

 

[Puckett34]

1 minute ago, Patzky said:

Yeah next year will be a whole nother animal. Who knows maybe we go out and sign DeScalfani..

Put some respect to Twins Legend (TM) Anthony DeSclafani's name.  He's right up there with Isiah Kiner Falefa to me

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

If you believe WAR is worth approximately $8 million, and Correa can reasonably be expected to put up 3 WAR per season, that makes his value approximately $25 million per year. I know some people hate this method, and I understand the arguments for and against. My point is, I think you can make a strong case that he's worth much more than what the Astros apparently value him at.  I understand the Twins would have to eat part of the contract, but $50 million, no way.

Right.....

[Patzky]

1 minute ago, Puckett34 said:

Put some respect to Twins Legend (TM) Anthony DeSclafani's name.  He's right up there with Isiah Kiner Falefa to me

Whom I thought we might trade for!

[bunsen82]

5 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

The post I responded to was "September," not 2026.

But for the record if Abel is the Twins 3rd best starter in 2026 we're going to be pretty bad.

As for "upside" and "likelihood of becoming a solid starter" do some research and let me know where Matthews was rated as a prospect. I know youre big on those ratings. 

I would say actually looking a little deeper,  Matthews and Abel are very similar except Abel is 2 years younger.  Matthews has only average to slightly above average pitches,  although I think that is old info.  He on the other hand has elite control command.  He is more on the Ryan path of needed to develop his other pitches more and continuing to tweak his fastball and fastball velocity.  Abel has the elite fastball and a plus slider.   His 3 other pitches are above average with what can be considered spotty command.   Abel has more upside,  Matthews has a much higher floor.  

[bunsen82]

15 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Sonny Gray has a MiLB career 3.1 BB/9 and MLB career 2.9 BB/9. He never approached the poor numbers Abel had. 

Again, hopefully he figured something out and this year is the new normal, I just think it's rare that it happens. More often than not these guys end up in the pen.

Sonny Gray  

2018 3.9 bb9 

2020  4.2  

Abel 2025  MLB BB/9  is 3.2    Sonny Gray  career BB/9 career 2.9   but skewed by his last 2 years.  He has consistently been above 3 for a majority of his career.   May want to go look at the stats.  Thats not to say Abel doesn't have command issues he does.  

 

[thelanges5]

Abel is a big hard throwing righty. The twins certainly have a pitcher type. I could see us using him in the rotation to get us through this season and then converting him to the bullpen in 2026. Does his 96-97 become 100 when used for an inning or two at a time?

[nicksaviking]

13 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Sonny Gray  

2018 3.9 bb9 

2020  4.2  

Abel 2025  MLB BB/9  is 3.2    Sonny Gray  career BB/9 career 2.9   but skewed by his last 2 years.  He can consistently been above 3 for a majority of his career.   May want to go look at the stats.  

 

Only using two of Gray's 13 MLB seasons and one of Abel's MiLB seasons? That's the most cherry picked argument I've seen.

Abel's career MiLB BB/9 is 5.1. I'm guessing it's going to be very difficult to find successful starting pitchers with the same historical numbers in that category. I already mentioned Randy Johnson, I'm happy to listen on more but I'm quite sure he's an outlier.

If the Phillies were basing their pitcher preference based on this year's AAA numbers, they would have hands down insisted on trading Painter, not Abel. They didn't and they know both pitchers better than anyone. And I actually like the Abel part of the deal better than the A Ball catcher. I don't hate him, I just don't think his chances of sticking in the rotation are nearly as high as what's being presented. He looks like Trevor May to me. Good player, but not a starter, and not a Duran replacement either.

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I would say actually looking a little deeper,  Matthews and Abel are very similar except Abel is 2 years younger.  Matthews has only average to slightly above average pitches,  although I think that is old info.  He on the other hand has elite control command.  He is more on the Ryan path of needed to develop his other pitches more and continuing to tweak his fastball and fastball velocity.  Abel has the elite fastball and a plus slider.   His 3 other pitches are above average with what can be considered spotty command.   Abel has more upside,  Matthews has a much higher floor.  

I agree his upside is higher, but so is the risk. I like getting Abel as part of the deal. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Abel is a big hard throwing righty. The twins certainly have a pitcher type. I could see us using him in the rotation to get us through this season and then converting him to the bullpen in 2026. Does his 96-97 become 100 when used for an inning or two at a time?

I'd be shocked if Abel is positioned for the bullpen next year. Shocked.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Who the pitchers are will be interesting. May actually make the Duran deal look much better. De Vries is the best prospect dealt, by far, but JP Sears is also going to the Padres so at least 1 of those pitchers can be attributed to him. And Mason Miller has 2 more years of control than Duran does. 

So, who are those 3 pitchers? Will be really interesting to see.

SD doesn't have much pitching in the minors. Mason was better than Duran last year and has 4 years of control remaining after this year. Duran is better this year and has 2 years of control left after this year. Pretty even, although arguably Mason is better than Duran overall. JP Sears is Paddack plus, so the As gave up more than the Twins did. The As got the better headline prospect, looks like the Twins got the better secondary prospect although we'll have to see. Looks pretty similar although nuanced. Hard to see a real basis for claiming the Twins got fleeced or outplayed. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'd be shocked if Abel is positioned for the bullpen next year. Shocked.

Agreed. They moved Varland and Jax only after multiple years of clarity they weren't starters. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Agreed. They moved Varland and Jax only after multiple years of clarity they weren't starters. 

And they wouldn't have traded for him if they were planning to JUST move him to the bullpen. Not for trading Duran. 

 

[nicksaviking]

5 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'd be shocked if Abel is positioned for the bullpen next year. Shocked.

For sure, at least not if Derek Falvey is running things, he's going to give him a long leash to show it was a good trade.

If there is a new guy running things, all bets are off. Often new GMs go out of their way to show they're doing things different and don't agree with the last guy.

[bunsen82]

3 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

SD doesn't have much pitching in the minors. Mason was better than Duran last year and has 4 years of control remaining after this year. Duran is better this year and has 2 years of control left after this year. Pretty even, although arguably Mason is better than Duran overall. JP Sears is Paddack plus, so the As gave up more than the Twins did. The As got the better headline prospect, looks like the Twins got the better secondary prospect although we'll have to see. Looks pretty similar although nuanced. Hard to see a real basis for claiming the Twins got fleeced or outplayed. 

Duran had just bit lest value than Miller, in 2 less years of control.  The difference was JP Sears still has signifivcant value.  Personally I think the Twins deal they gave up less and got more personally.  Taits numbers are better than De Vries.  There is a ton of risk with some increasing concern on the bat.  Personally I think the calculator are off.  Personal opinion is De Vries should be rated 35-40 which is about what they got.   For the Twins I think Abel is underrated by 5-10 points.  Just for comparison sake a nobody in Sears is worth 12.4 points while Abel is only worth 5???  There is no way that makes logical sense.   In either case I really like the value the Twins got for Duran.  

[bunsen82]

12 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Only using two of Gray's 13 MLB seasons and one of Abel's MiLB seasons? That's the most cherry picked argument I've seen.

Abel's career MiLB BB/9 is 5.1. I'm guessing it's going to be very difficult to find successful starting pitchers with the same historical numbers in that category.

If the Phillies were basing their pitcher preference based on this year's AAA numbers, they would have hands down insisted on trading Painter, not Abel. They didn't and they know both pitchers better than anyone. And I actually like the Abel part of the deal better than the A Ball catcher. I don't hate him, I just don't think his chances of sticking in the rotation are nearly as high as what's being presented. He looks like Trevor May to me. Good player, but not a starter, and not a Duran replacement either.

The argument I would have is that the Phillies have over pushed Abel.   The first year they have him repeat a level he drastically improves, with an ERA of 2.31   BB/9 of 3.9 and 3.2 at the MLB level.   That level of control at the MLB level is usable.  5 and above is not.  Yes I am using the current version of Abel and some recency bias but Abel is still young and improving,  the current version at the highest levels is probably our best comp.  Painter has an elite fastball,  pretty much in line with Abel and better command.  Really Painter and Abel are pretty similar.  You want a hot take,  after looking at things I really think as a whole the Phillies prospects are overrated.  How is Painter considered elite - no offense I am just not seeing it.   SO/9 less than 9.  Whip of 1.36  ERA of 4.5   meh.   There really isn't much difference from him Abel and say Matthews.  

[Dman]

It's almost lunch time let's get these trades going. I thought once Suarez was off the board things might get going with position players, but pretty quiet.  Looks like more pressure needs to build before players come off the board.

[Patzky]

5 minutes ago, Dman said:

It's almost lunch time let's get these trades going. I thought once Suarez was off the board things might get going with position players, but pretty quiet.  Looks like more pressure needs to build before players come off the board.

So checking in on this board every thirty minutes to see no action.. is just like checking in on the game forum every few innings to see no runs scored!

[Patzky]

Tigers get Kyle Finnegan from Nats. 

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, Patzky said:

So checking in on this board every thirty minutes to see no action.. is just like ...

...my high school dating career

 

Frustrating, but I keep trying

[Patzky]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

...my high school dating career

 

Frustrating, but I keep trying

Creepy in the funkiest way possible.. 😜