BREAKING: Twins Trade Jhoan Duran to Philadelphia Phillies

[Sjoski]

18 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Abel has more shine still on him than Ragans did when he was traded, but the concerns were the same.

Even if that's true....Twins paid a premium price. Twins paid $100 for every nickle the Royals paid.

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

As others have said, we won’t know for a few years how this will pan out. A few observations…

• This tells me that the team was not going to extend Duran or even pay his arb numbers.
• You also have to include in this trade the sandwich pick he would brought in his walk year.
• We seem to rock piling catchers that are years away.  Hope they have a Vazquez replacement plan for next season.
• I was hoping to see another WS in my lifetime. That just got delayed.

Twins are looking at JC Escarra from the Yankees.  Vazquez is a replacement level player.  By definition, he is not hard to replace.  They could get an equivalent player in free agency for half of what they are paying Vazquez.

Where winning a WS is concerned, they are nowhere near winning a WS with this collection of talent.  Therefore, we need to ask ourselves how to get there.  Free agency is not an option.  The growing cost of our arbitration players will consume our budget. 

Option 2 is do we have superstar prospects joining the team next year and will they develop in time to win a WS by 2027 when Lopez / Ryan / Ober / Duran and Jax all become free agents.  Highly unlikely. 

Option 3 - Can we trade prospects for 2-3 elite players and elevate this team to true contender?  That option entails trading away Jenkins / Matthews / Keaschall and a few others.  Ask yourself what small or mid-market team has elevated their team to contender with this strategy.  Then ask, which teams elevated their status by trading away established players.  Chicago won the WS in 2005 with a home grown team.  Over the next 19 seasons, one small/mid market team has won the WS.  The 2015 Royals who acquired their best player (Cain) and starting SS (Escobar) by trading Zach Greinke.   

The most successful small market team (Cleveland) has traded away more established players than any team I can think with the possible exception of the Rays.  The other most successful small market team.  If we chose option 3 and cash in most of our major assets, how does the future look?  Bleak for several years is the likely answer.   

[Doctor Gast]

44 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

News flash. This team stinks and will again next year. Duran would have been paid a proper closer salary of $12-15 million in 2027 so it's entirely reasonable to trade him now. 

You care nothing for the Twins so what do you know about the Twins except what you get from big market social media? Big market wanted Duran on the cheap; they got it. If Falvey can't get a good deal then wait until we get someone who can. You complain that the Twins aren't spending enough, then turn around & you say they shouldn't spend the money to keep Duran. Maybe Duran would get $12-15M in NY but not here. If we bring someone in who can get a good deal on Duran this offseason, then News Flash, we don't pay his salary. Yes they stunk last season, they stink this season and they'll continue to stink under Falvey.   If you like Falvey, great you can have him. You hate Twins, fine, But don't stick your nose where it doesn't belong.

[Hubie29]

10 hours ago, jkcarew said:

So…better than Festa and Matthews. And younger.

Pretty low standards there!

[NYCTK]

28 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

Your forgetting a huge component of why this trade is so bad. Its riddled with risk. 

The measuring stick is Chapman vs Duran.  An aging rental player vs a 27 year old with 2+ years of control.

Why the heck do you think Philly fans are peeing their pants. 

Don't disagree. But you can't compare a prospect against what a different, lesser prospect ultimately became and complain because you didn't get the lesser prospect. That's all I'm saying. 

[Otaknam]

I don’t think the Twins got enough for an elite closer. If they had acquired the Phillies #1 prospect in starter Andrew Painter instead of Nick Able, this would be acceptable. Tait is likely three years away, and Abel his mixed results and has some control issues. I think they dropped the ball on this trade. Hopefully they do better today in any other trades. Thumbs down on this one!

[NYCTK]

7 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

You care nothing for the Twins

This comes as a shock to my closet of Twins attire and rack of twins caps collected over 40 years. To the hundreds of games I attended in the metrodome and the dozens more in Target Field, including 40+ games in that debut season. 

Sorry that I determined one year ago after the Twins decision neither to buy or sell that the organization was terribly run and that I would no longer support it until ownership and senior leadership were changed or at least got their **** together. 

Sorry that I don't have blind loyalty to a billionaire and their investment asset. 

 

[bunsen82]

3 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

I don’t think the Twins got enough for an elite closer. If they had acquired the Phillies #1 prospect in starter Andrew Painter instead of Nick Able, this would be acceptable. Tait is likely three years away, and Abel his mixed results and has some control issues. I think they dropped the ball on this trade. Hopefully they do better today in any other trades. Thumbs down on this one!

Painter wasn’t offered. It would have been like someone asking Jenkins for us. Even an elite closer won’t get that deal done. Painter had double the value of Duran. Levine is on MLB network and felt the Twins got an overpay. Ultimately it comes down to if the prospects work out but we took 2 players with incredibly high ceilings. 

[Danchat]

3 hours ago, wabene said:

Did anyone on this board have a clue about what the Twins had gotten when they acquired Joe Ryan?

Yes, it was recognized by us here as surprising haul, there was no reason to think we would get as much as we did from the Rays. At the time, I called it a "solid move". My post in that thread acknowledged the thought that we'd get something like a single low A pitcher for Cruz... but the two trades really aren't comparable. This much control of Duran is worth a looooot more than two months of Cruz.

[bunsen82]

14 hours ago, Dman said:

I can't believe Seattle couldn't beat this.  He would have really helped their pen and if the Twins could have worked a deal around Ford they would have a catcher close to ready.  I am not a fan.

They tried for painter and couldn't even pry away their third ranked prospect in Crawford who at least has star potential.

How does Dombrowski do it?  We need that guy on our side.

They took a P that has #1 or #2 starter potential and C whose bat looks legit. My guess is other than Painter these are the 2 they targeted. 

[USAFChief]

37 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

They took a P that has #1 or #2 starter potential and C whose bat looks legit. My guess is other than Painter these are the 2 they targeted. 

Nobody but you projects Abel as a #1 or #2 starter. 

Nobody can ever know for certain what a minor league player will become. But He's dropped off all top-100 lists except one. He's not included in Fangraphs top 200.. Most projections say he has a chance to develop into an average-ish starter. And BTW he's not there yet.

You can be in favor of this trade without making stuff up. 

 

[NYCTK]

32 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Maybe Duran would get $12-15M in NY but not here.

That's not how arbitration works. Unless we're misunderstanding each other. He is due a raise next season ($7-8M est) and then another in 2027 ($12-15M est). 

A team in even a soft rebuild, which you don't like to admit but IS the reality, doesn't really care to spend those resources on a closer. 

[Dman]

6 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

They took a P that has #1 or #2 starter potential and C whose bat looks legit. My guess is other than Painter these are the 2 they targeted. 

That is one way to look at it, but you aren't mentioning any of the risks they are taking. The pitcher they took has known control problems and if he walks too many guys he won't be a starter he will be a pen arm.  He also got shelled in his last few MLB starts because of control problems.

The catcher is a fairly long ways away and a free swinger.  That might work at the lower levels, but once he hits AA where they throw more breaking stuff he'll K all the time.

So to counter your statement they could get very little or nothing out of this deal as well.  We won't know the outcomes for a while.  Obviously I do hope for the best outcomes, but very few players hit their actual ceilings so the odds are low that we got a #1  starter or elite catcher.  The Twins think they will hit on both players and that's why they did the deal.  They think the risk is acceptable. Even though they know a lot more than I do they still are often wrong about players.  So we'll see.  Obviously hoping for the best now that the deal is done, but there is plenty of risk in this deal.

[bunsen82]

3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Nobody but you projects Abel as a #1 or #2 starter. 

 

 

I said he has a ceiling of a #1 or #2 pitcher. He has 5 elite pitches. The stuff is there for a high end pitcher. He could also be mid rotation, a reliever or flame out. 

[USAFChief]

23 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

I said he has a ceiling of a #1 or #2 pitcher. He has 5 elite pitches. The stuff is there for a high end pitcher. He could also be mid rotation, a reliever or flame out. 

Then every pitcher in minor league baseball has a ceiling of a #1 or #2.

Thats meaningless.

And for the record..."5 elite pitches?"

Just stop 

[Swing Batter-Batter]

I'm not sure that stating Abel is better than SWR, is really saying a lot.

[wabene]

1 hour ago, Sjoski said:

Comparing that trade to this one is like comparing a bowling ball to a tennis ball...the only thing they have in common is they are both round. 

 

24 minutes ago, Danchat said:

Yes, it was recognized by us here as surprising haul, there was no reason to think we would get as much as we did from the Rays. At the time, I called it a "solid move". My post in that thread acknowledged the thought that we'd get something like a single low A pitcher for Cruz... but the two trades really aren't comparable. This much control of Duran is worth a looooot more than two months of Cruz.

To be clear, I never compared the trades. My point is that MLB prospecting is a crapshoot. We simply have no idea what we acquired, 15 pages of comments notwithstanding.

[Killer Rod Tony]

15 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Hopefully Painter is the headliner. It’s been a minute since Dombrowski went scorched earth on his farm system to win a World Series 

We traded Duran, the number one closer available, for a 18-year-old catcher with potential and a way above average minor league starting pitcher who is not cutting the mustard at the major league level. At this point if he did make it we're looking at a number three number four or number five starter for the best clothes are out there had only 27 years old! What this says is a salary dump to do such a stupid thing because it doesn't match and Dombrowski in Philadelphia is a very smart GM. Our GM knows better than to do what he's done but it wasn't his call. Ownership only is going to spend so much money because that's an A+ for Philadelphia a D minus move for the twins. We've done this before where we gave up our center fielder for a single a pitcher and then the next starting center field was traded for a single a pitcher. You cannot compare a single a player at the catching position to become anything close to what a top closer is. It's enormously frustrating to see what was gotten out of this trade. It is clearly a money deal not a player for player deal. I have followed this organization since 1965 because of Killebrew, Carew, Oliva. Lrjohnson195230@yahoo.com.

[NYCTK]

8 minutes ago, Dman said:

That is one way to look at it, but you aren't mentioning any of the risks they are taking.

And no one here is mentioning the risk they are selling. 

RP often burn bright and quick and then fade away. Duran's K-rate is down, his velo is down (slightly) and he's been suspiciously healthy for 4 seasons now. There's nothing to say he's not a prime candidate to explode and become another footnote in the annals of "elite" closers. 

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

And no one here is mentioning the risk they are selling. 

RP often burn bright and quick and then fade away. Duran's K-rate is down, his velo is down (slightly) and he's been suspiciously healthy for 4 seasons now. There's nothing to say he's not a prime candidate to explode and become another footnote in the annals of "elite" closers. 

"Suspiciously healthy?"

Literally laugh out loud. I mean, come on. 

[bunsen82]

32 minutes ago, Dman said:

That is one way to look at it, but you aren't mentioning any of the risks they are taking. The pitcher they took has known control problems and if he walks too many guys he won't be a starter he will be a pen arm.  He also got shelled in his last few MLB starts because of control problems.

 

5-18  Pit  6 Innining  0 ER 5 hits 9 SO  0 BB

6-4 Tor   5.1 Inn    1 ER 3 hits 2 SO  0 BB

6-10 Cubs 4 inn  6 hits 3 ER 3 SO 3 BB   (3HR)

6-16 Mia 5 inn  1 ER 3 hits  3 SO 1 BB  

6-21 Mets  3 Innings 4 ER   1 SO 0 BB  (4HR)  

7/2 Padres  1.2 Inn  5 ER 5 hits 5 BB 3 SO   

 

That Padres outing was rough,  prior to that he had a 3.47 ERA.  That was in 23 1/3.  He would have had 4 walks in 23 innings.  So 1.56 BB per a 9 and it looks like he didn't have control in 2 outings,  where he gave up 9 of his 10 BB.  He has average over 3 BB per a nine in the minors so this is also something we can't just gloss over.    On first glance what does he need to work on.  Its the blowups.  Yes he does have to work on some control.  He gave up 7 HR in 2 games ouch.  That looks like an anomoly though as he has not historical gave up a ton of runs.  For the Minors 1 per a nine.   He also needs to work on creating more whiffs for him the SO/9 has to be closer to 10 than 9.  He had 7.6 per a 9 and that was carried by the Pit outing.   Honestly for a young kid still gaining his confidence and continuing to improve on his stuff.  Philly pushes their prospects hard,  so I am not surprised to see he hasn't been as dominant as some would like until AAA this year.  His whip is 1.16 in AAA this year,  1.36 in the majors,  even with some rough outings.  That is something the Twins can work with.    

 

[bunsen82]

24 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Then every pitcher in minor league baseball has a ceiling of a #1 or #2.

Thats meaningless.

And for the record..."5 elite pitches?"

Just stop 

Yes I did overstate some after watching Warne stream last night.  He has 5 above average pitches.  His fastball is elite,  his slider is a plus pitch.  You dislike anything the twins are doing.   I tried to give an olive branch yesterday.   

[Dman]

22 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

And no one here is mentioning the risk they are selling. 

RP often burn bright and quick and then fade away. Duran's K-rate is down, his velo is down (slightly) and he's been suspiciously healthy for 4 seasons now. There's nothing to say he's not a prime candidate to explode and become another footnote in the annals of "elite" closers. 

Risk runs both ways for sure and every arm is a pitch away from injury.  Still Duran's velo being down seems like a misnomer to me.  Yeah he throws those 102 103 mile an hour heaters, but they miss more often than they hit and his results this year say he is elite pretty much every where.  Gets tons of ground balls, Keeps the ball in the park and has a good K rate.  So the results look great with his "declining velo".

Still I'd say the risk with Duran is far less than a pitcher with 5 something ERA at the MLB level and an 18 year old catcher with chase issues and a long way to go.

To your point yes there is risk either way, but the degree has to taken into account as well.  IMO there is far more risk for the Twins than the Phillies in this deal.

[tony&rodney]

20 minutes ago, Swing Batter-Batter said:

I'm not sure that stating Abel is better than SWR, is really saying a lot.

Abel is not as good as Woods Richardson. This is quantifiable at this time.

Things can change which should not be news. Abel could be a solid relief pitcher. We will need to be patient and supportive.

[NYCTK]

7 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

"Suspiciously healthy?"

Literally laugh out loud. I mean, come on. 

I think you know what I mean. Every pitcher in the majors is unfortunately a big injury risk and he's spent 4 years now without any arm issues if I'm not mistaken? He had TJ in the minors, though right? 

I'm just saying, everyone carries risk and to focus on the incoming risk and just ignore the outgoing risk is disingenuous. 

[Dman]

6 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

5-18  Pit  6 Innining  0 ER 5 hits 9 SO  0 BB

6-4 Tor   5.1 Inn    1 ER 3 hits 2 SO  0 BB

6-10 Cubs 4 inn  6 hits 3 ER 3 SO 3 BB   (3HR)

6-16 Mia 5 inn  1 ER 3 hits  3 SO 1 BB  

6-21 Mets  3 Innings 4 ER   1 SO 0 BB  (4HR)  

7/2 Padres  1.2 Inn  5 ER 5 hits 5 BB 3 SO   

 

That Padres outing was rough,  prior to that he had a 3.47 ERA.  That was in 23 1/3.  He would have had 4 walks in 23 innings.  So 1.56 BB per a 9 and it looks like he didn't have control in 2 outings,  where he gave up 9 of his 10 BB.  He has average over 3 BB per a nine in the minors so this is also something we can't just gloss over.    On first glance what does he need to work on.  Its the blowups.  Yes he does have to work on some control.  He gave up 7 HR in 2 games ouch.  That looks like an anomoly though as he has not historical gave up a ton of runs.  For the Minors 1 per a nine.   He also needs to work on creating more whiffs for him the SO/9 has to be closer to 10 than 9.  He had 7.6 per a 9 and that was carried by the Pit outing.   Honestly for a young kid still gaining his confidence and continuing to improve on his stuff.  Philly pushes their prospects hard,  so I am not surprised to see he hasn't been as dominant as some would like until AAA this year.  His whip is 1.16 in AAA this year,  1.36 in the majors,  even with some rough outings.  That is something the Twins can work with.    

 

Yeah he looks great at AAA but a lot of guys do.  He did have some success at the MLB level but a lot of guys do.  Consistency is the difference maker.  He has great stuff so does Raya and he gets shelled too even at AAA. 

There is a lot to like about Abel especially the plus pitches but you have to place it where they can't barrel it easily and that takes control.  We'll see if he has it.  Hey I am hoping he does and obviously the Twins think he will and they have watched him.  I haven't even seen him pitch just box scores and prospect list stats.  You don't have to convince me that he could be good, the stuff is there.  I just think there is risk in the profile and am worried he won't get to mid rotation starter level.  So many pitchers have good stuff but can't control it well enough.  It's just hard to "bank" on it happening when you see so many fail to master it.

[USAFChief]

9 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I think you know what I mean. Every pitcher in the majors is unfortunately a big injury risk and he's spent 4 years now without any arm issues if I'm not mistaken? He had TJ in the minors, though right? 

I'm just saying, everyone carries risk and to focus on the incoming risk and just ignore the outgoing risk is disingenuous. 

Well every pitcher is an injury risk. Including Abel. There is no point focusing on injury risk unless there is some underlying issue. And using a history of health as a risk is...questionable analysis IYAM.

The risk everyone is talking about is MLB production. We're trading it away. Elite level production at that. Over four seasons. 

We got none back. The risk of getting less MLB production back is entirely on the Twins. 

[bunsen82]

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Abel is not as good as Woods Richardson. This is quantifiable at this time.

Things can change which should not be news. Abel could be a solid relief pitcher. We will need to be patient and supportive.

SWR  has a whip of 1.4  and BB9 of 3.9   ERA of 4.24  SWR has no elite pitches.  

Abel has  a whip of 1.36    BB9 of 3.2   ER of 5.04 (3.47 prior to last outing) - 1 elite pitch and 1 plus pitch,  3 others above average

I like SWR.  He is the definition of a pitcher.   He is not a thrower, he is a pitcher.   Even still Abel on raw stats in limited outings is just as good.  He has 2 better pitches, 1 being elite and yes he does have a much higher ceiling that SWR and would have a much higher value in any trade.   Yes he has some starter risk, but I don't think its near the risk some want to point out.   Sonny Gray has had a lifetime 3 BB per a 9.  Yes he needs to improve some control, but its not that far off.  

[bunsen82]

2 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah he looks great at AAA but a lot of guys do.  He did have some success at the MLB level but a lot of guys do.  Consistency is the difference maker.  He has great stuff so does Raya and he gets shelled too even at AAA. 

There is a lot to like about Abel especially the plus pitches but you have to place it where they can't barrel it easily and that takes control.  We'll see if he has it.  Hey I am hoping he does and obviously the Twins think he will and they have watched him.  I haven't even seen him pitch just box scores and prospect list stats.  You don't have to convince me that he could be good, the stuff is there.  I just think there is risk in the profile and am worried he won't get to mid rotation starter level.  So many pitchers have good stuff but can't control it well enough.  It's just hard to "bank" on it happening when you see so many fail to master it.

Raya gets shelled in AAA,  so far this year Abel has not.   I understand your points though.  There is risk with any move.  However his BB rate isn't that far off from players like Sonny Gray or even SWR as I mentioned earlier.  There is definitely a path where he can find more consistency.  He is only 23.  

[TopGunn#22]

I think we got a little less than we could have.  I was kind of hoping for a trade with the Dodgers that would've brought us Dalton Rushing but that was not to be.

And maybe my hopes of leveraging Duran (especially after Clase became "unavailable") into a significant overpay by the Dodgers or Phillies were totally misguided.  It wouldn't be the first time.

Using BBTV's as a guide for value in a general sense, the Twins ended up with Abel (5.1) and Tait (17.9) for a total value of 23.0.  Duran was valued at 25.7.  It just seems very compelling that the Twins should have gotten at least one more player with at least lottery ticket value.  Someone like a Dustin May or Bobby Miller type of throw in.  An arm with upside but flaws that would need to be fixed.

But with Duran's value at 25.7 and, let's add on 5 points of value for urgency and immediate benefit to the acquiring team (Dodgers or Phillies) the idea of actually getting Painter (49.4 value) or Rushing (43.4 value) was probably never going to happen.  There may have been a low level bidding war.  But certainly not to the point where either the Phillies (Painter) or Dodgers (Rushing) ever flinched at that level of prospect.

Where I think Falvey messed up was in not including a Major league player (Castro or Bader) or a minor league player of some value to the Phillies (basically expanding the trade a bit) to get a 3rd prospect of value like Crawford.  It didn't have to be JUST a Duran swap.  Julien, Miranda, take your pick, could have been included to get a player with a skill set that the roster currently lacks.

The Twins "appeared" to have had the proverbial "hammer in their hands" to make a better deal.  I like who we got back.  I'm not going to be too judgmental until I've had a few opportunities to see Mick Abel pitch and I've read some minor league reports about which level Tait ended up at and how he's doing.